BTC Surprises and Market Analysis: Navigating the Current RangeAs we approached the weekend, I was expecting Bitcoin to get the Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) of $21,647 and continue to the range, I was expecting liquidity to leave the market, but I was wrong as BTC had different plans and did a great job of surprising me. Initially, BTC did precisely what I was expecting. I took the short trade and stopped out (Refer to my last post). I patiently waited for some reaction from $21,827.5 to play out as it was a significant weekly level along with a 0.66 Fibonacci level. The bullish momentum was so strong and rapid that it managed to break through the weekly level, leaving several single prints behind us. My next resistance level was a daily level of $22,393. Price broke through this level without difficulty and stopped at the monthly level of $23,301.
As of now, MS is bullish, and if we want any move toward the downside, we need MS to change in 30min to 1-hour charts first before we take any new swing short trades. We're still in the 6-month range; before getting excited and sending BTC to the moon, we must reclaim the $25,211 level. We currently have the Monthly $23,301 level acting as a current resistance and a Weekly $24,297.5 level, along with a 0.886 Fibonacci level right above us. We also have an SFP at the $25,211 level.
Currently, we are right above the VAH of the entire range.
For the downside, I would like BTC to get accepted below the VAH of the range, Claiming a daily naked point of control level at $22,612. I would like to see at least two 30 minutes candle closes before getting into any short trades. This move up was rapid, so once we get acceptance below VAH of the entire range, we can expect the price to have a quick fall to the $20,673- $20,957 level, as we have several new daily levels, which can act as a great support.
For Upside, I will expect the price to reclaim the monthly level before getting into any long trades. All my trades will be scalps with a tight stop loss.
