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Looking For Next Market Top AgainLooking for next top Submillennium 1 Grand Supercycle 5 - green Supercycle 1 Cycle 5 - orange Primary 5 - blue Intermediate 5 - pink Minor 5 - yellow Minute 5 - green I will try to find the next top off simply modified wave theory. First we need to set the baseline. I prefer the chart SPX500USD as it encompasses 23 hour trading during the week and can capture movement not always distinguishable in the SP:SPX chart. My first step is always to identify the location of wave 3 (if it exists). I do this by using my Elliott Wave 3 Finder v2 in conjunction with my RSI triple confirm indicator and a simple RSI 9. My wave 3 indicator will have a painted background at potential wave 3 locations, blue background for bearish reversals and pink for bullish reversals. My triple confirm RSI should signal in conjunction with the actual wave 3 point, red for bearish reversals and green for bullish reversals. My wave 3 indicator tends to spot wave 3 of 3 by displaying a gap between painted backgrounds. These indicators signal upon market close and are not considered finalized signals until the next bar begins. My baseline is in the 2 month chart. I have worked through the historical SPX chart and believe we are in the fifth and final wave (Grand Supercycle 5) of a larger structure (Sub Millennium 1) that began in the 1800s. This specific wave 5 began at the market bottom in 2009, and we are only in the first (Supercycle 1) of five waves to the upside. I do not expect a catastrophic market top for many decades to come. This chart picks up around 2004 to the current time. We are likely in Cycle wave 5 which began at the market low in October 2022. I have determined Cycle wave 3 to have ended at the peak at the beginning of 2022 based on the wave 3 indicator and RSI agreeing on a reversal point. In the moment, I would not have agreed the market topped in January 2022 as the indicators were still signaling. It is only on the preceding bar not producing a signal that an event is confirmed. Next I will determine common wave extensions off (Fibonacci levels) of Cycle wave 3's movement which began at the low in January 2016 at 1,806.25 and ended at 4,820.20 in January 2022. Wave 3 moved 3,013.95 points. Cycle wave 5 could move 123.6% to 138.2% of Wave 3's movement. These means a potential endpoint is between 5,531.49-5,971.53. This will be the orange outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Next I will try to identify a current Primary wave 3 inside of Cycle wave 5. My indicators point to Primary wave 3 ending around the mid-July 2024 on the 2-day chart based on the gap in the wave 3 indicators. There is not an RSI 3 signal in the 2-day chart for Primary wave 3, but there was one for Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 3 around February 12, 2024. We can attempt to confirm this by seeing where the end of Intermediate wave 5's movement extended too. If Intermediate wave 3 began January 5, 2024 and ended March 29, 2024, Intermediate wave 5 topped close to 161.8% of Intermediate wave 3's movement as seen below: Based on this assumption, Primary wave 3 was likely over by mid-July 2024. The next Fibonacci wave extension levels for Cycle wave 5 could see this wave end between 108-123.6% of Primary wave 3's movement. This places a potential top between 5,806.48-6,052.34. This will be the light blue outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. We will next move inside of Primary wave 5 which possibly began at the low from the beginning of August 2024. In looking for Intermediate wave 3 inside of Primary wave 5, the indicators point to Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 3 occurring on September 19, 2024 and the Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 3 occurring on September 13. If we find the Intermediate wave 5 extension from this Intermediate wave 3, a potential top sits between 5,816.26-5,936.51. This will be the pink outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Next we try to identify where we are in Intermediate wave 5. The 2-hour chart here indicates a possible Minor wave 3 occurring on October 9, 2024. A possible Minor wave 5 extension from here is a top between 5,825.38-5,868.50. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. We can attempt to go a final level deeper inside of Minor wave 5. We currently have Minute wave 3 indications based on the high from earlier today at 5826.90. If this is the end of Minute wave 3, Minute 5 could top between 5,834.16-5,857.61. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Based on a this wave set being over a small timeframe, this top could happen before next Tuesday. This is zone of interest for a near-term top. This is purely theoretical, but Israel will likely strike at Iran soon. Iran has claimed they would respond quickly, but the prior instances saw long delays in the response. If Iran has an immediate response, a full on conflict would be underway in the Middle East. Not all wars are bad, but this one would likely impact oil and depending on the duration likely impact economies around the world. A contained conflict between a few nations likely would not spiral into a larger conflict, however, strong alliances on other side could turn this into a much greater event, closer to a world war situation. As drastic as this is, it could explain a potential near-term top. If conflict does not break out, we will likely see a short-term market top before continued movement higher and higher. Time will tell. Enjoy!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by StockSignaler
4
Are We There Yet? A Market Top ExposeAfter re-calculations and re-assessing, I think I am ready to move forward. I have moved off my position that the 2022 correction was a Supercycle 2 correction and macro market top. I would be on the bandwagon the market is primed to move up indefinitely if not for the massive amounts of debt and cautious discretionary spending. I am still in the camp of prices and wages requiring a re-balance. Companies will have to lower their prices to meet customers at a more realistic price point. The companies that fail to get to that price point will go out of business. I am settling on the side of Supercycle I ending very soon and a larger corrective Supercycle II will take hold next. I am at this position due to the location of important wave 3s in the following chart: My wave 3 indicator at the bottom will paint a light blue background at potential wave 3s. Close gaps between painted backgrounds are common at wave 3 of 3s as is observed by the yellow line around August 2021. The strongest point on the RSI and my wave 3 indicator generally occurs at wave 3 of 3 of 3 (and more levels of 3) which occurred with the white line in January 2018. Additional wave 3 indicators occurred in late 2013 and early 2014 which were likely in the fifth wave of Cycle wave 1. Based on this premise, Cycle wave 3 likely ended in January 2022 and the October low was Cycle wave 4. This would put the market in Cycle wave 5 currently. Cycle wave 1 lasted 5-6 years, while wave 3 did the same. Cycle wave 5 does not have to last long, but there is always a chance it does something similar. Currently, we are just over a year and a half into this wave which may be too quick for it to end. So far we can see a 5 wave structure on the weekly chart. In this 5 wave structure, wave 1 had a wave extension, likely indicating waves 3 and 5 will be shorter in length. The wave 3 indicator has a gap between painted backgrounds in March of this year indicating this was possibly wave 3 and wave 3 of 3. Wave 4 likely bottomed with the low in April. This would place us currently in wave 5. The main question is if all five of these waves are Primary waves inside of the final cycle wave or if these are Intermediate waves inside of the First Primary wave. The pullback in consumer spending has me believing we are closer to the end of a major cycle instead of in the early stages of a multi-year bullish cycle. Additionally, even though the year over year inflation rate is no longer as high of a number, inflation has not actually declined yet as prices continue constantly go up. Furthermore, the year over year inflation rate remains higher than the year over year retail sales numbers. If things were healthy as the talking heads make it seem, retail sales rate should be higher than the rate of inflation as this would show people are spending more money than they are losing to inflation. This is not the case which is why I think a major re-balancing (and yes recession) must still occur. I could be wrong as I have been, or my inaccuracies have been delayed to this point. In trying to identify the current wave 5, I have switched over to the SPX500USD chart to find potential wave 3s and 3 of 3s. The major wave 3s in this fifth wave are identified by the vertical white lines. It looks like the wave extension once again resides in the first wave. Wave 3 of 3 for wave 1 was on May 7th. Wave 3 of 3 of 3 was on June 6, and wave 3 ended on June 12. If these are true, the major fourth wave likely ended at the June 14 low. This once again places us currently in the fifth wave. This is the fifth wave of a wave 5. The question remains as to how large will the next correction be. The current top on the SPX500USD chart is 5530 from June 28th, but it will likely change before week's end with potential decreases in holiday trading volume. On the main chart, I have plotted out potential Fib levels (noted on the right side) for a fifth wave extension if Cycle wave 3 ran from the 2016 low to the January 2022 top. 123.6% of this movement is where we currently are and can be a potential major wave 5 end point. The next Fib of interest would be 138.20% which is near 5967 (indicating much more bullish activity ahead). Regardless, a downturn is likely coming soon. If it starts within the next few weeks, the bottom could occur within the next 2-3 years. If the market blows past the current top, we will likely have a few more years of upward movement followed by a 3-5 year drop thereafter. A large drop now will not be great, but the economies of the country and world could "right themselves" in a quicker manner which would be best for everyone instead of longer and more drawn out. We shall see what happens, as I have been wrong plenty of times in the past. I can keep calling for a drop and will eventually be correct, but the batting average would not even be worthy of the minor leagues.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
A Bearish 2024--Can We Move Down Yet?Early guess of the bottom is between November 2024 and March 2025 which relatively falls in line with the originally projected bottom from July 4, 2022. This is where Cycle B has topped thus far. It was in the larger target area from my December 13, 2023 analysis, albeit at the tail end of the box. Time for the study models. 1 - MOVEMENT EXTENSION STUDY The movement percentage extensions have not changed from the recent initial analyses for Cycle wave C. The range for the bottom is likely below 3365 and above 2733. 2 - SPECIFIC WAVE RELATIONSHIP STUDY The price models have a few pockets of interest which are the squares at the bottom right of the chart and included in the close-up image below. The strongest pocket across the models places the low between 3100-3200. Next strongest pocket is 3000-3050. Third is at 2750-2800. Additional pockets to consider are at 2900-2950 and 3300-3350. The lowest pocket (magenta rectangle) below 2800 is likely out of reach while the 3300-3350 model may be too high. The bottom is likely between 2900-3200. The duration models strongly favor matching durations and fractions thereof from Cycle wave A and B's duration. Based on the macro nature of the forecasted wave, I will discard these durations as explanations can be found in my prior analyses. Duration pockets of interest are strongest at 680-700 trading hours 2720-2740, and 900-920. These pockets may be too long and too short based on the additional studies, however, an interesting pocket exists at 1820-1860 and 1850-1900 trading hours. Additional considerations are at 1640-1660 and 2040-2060. 3 - DERIVATIVE MODEL STUDY While this study is suitable for waves 3, 4, 5, and C; not enough data is available based on the macro nature of the current wave and this study was not conducted. 4 - KEY RELATIONSHIP METRIC STUDY There are unique elements and descriptions for the behavior observed between Cycle waves A and B. For instance wave B came incredibly close to retracing all of wave A's movement. The current top places the retracement at 98.087% which is an A:B relationship of 1.0195. Wave B was also nearly twice the size of Wave A at a relationship of 0.5531. I studied similar instances to attempt to determine what Cycle wave C could do. Of note was a pocket of duration data around 1855 trading hours and a bottom between 2988.29-3290.59. I further refined the data by examining the rise over run (R/R) relationships between waves A and B. The current relationship is 1.8432 meaning Cycle wave A moved faster than Cycle wave B. These results yielded duration pockets between 1801-2122 trading hours and a market bottom between 3161-3181. Based on the studied subset of data, common R/R relationships between waves A and waves C were further studied. The main areas of focus were relationships at 0.388, 0.68794, 0.75, 0.80, 1.00, and 1.20. If the number is greater than 1, Cycle wave A would have a larger R/R than Cycle wave C. Cycle wave A is typically larger, however, that would mean this next market drop would be very quick. My immediate chosen ratio was 0.388, however, this appears too slow. Stocks have been more highly volatile and have not generally dropped slowly over time. Cycle wave A's R/R of 0.97 was a quicker drop than Cycle wave B's 0.53. The index should drop below 3491, but likely over a longer term than Cycle wave A. Cycle wave B was nearly double the duration of Cycle wave A even though, wave A moved more on a points basis. Cycle wave A lastly just over 9 months, while B was around 14. I expect C to last 11-16 months. This next chart outlines the movement extension percentages from the first study, the potential pockets from the second study, while overlaying R/R endpoints on top. The major intersections are addressed with vertical bars aligning to their R/R ratioed lines. I thought 0.388 was too slow and this layout indicates ratio 0.6879 is likely too slow as well. The sweet spot is likely with a ratio between 0.80 and 1.00. I will place the bottom around January 2025 for now which is around 1832 trading hours long. This analysis will become more refined as we move forward with time. 2024 appears to be quite the down year for the market between the current military conflicts, shipping disruptions, companies gambling they can refinance their debt at a cheaper rate, incredibly high personal debt levels, and a likely Chinese reclamation of Taiwan. There are also elections in the United States bound to add uncertainty to the future. Things seem to subside by the first quarter of 2025 and the next push higher will likely be stronger and faster than those previously experienced so not all is lost. Protect the retirement accounts for a year and enjoy the future.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Momentarily Bullish AgainOnce the last theory busted it was a return to the drawing board. I am now postulating we are back in Cycle wave B which I thought had been completed as initially forecasted during the summer 2023 (high was end of July). Not only was 4607 busted a few days back, it was blown out of the water today. What does this mean? With Cycle wave B now being larger than anticipated, Cycle wave C will likely last well through the 1st or even 2nd quarter of 2025. This likely indicates something worse than I initially forecasted will happen. The event or events will devastate economies enough to likely see the S&P 500 index lose close to half its value from the pending top. China taking Taiwan and temporarily controlling a majority of the microchips and production facilities will hold the world hostage. If a larger scale war breaks out, it will likely end or the tide will turn by 2025. I am still very bullish long-term, but will be bearish again around the end of this month. Here are the re-mapped modified wave counts CYCLE B PRIMARY A INTERMEDIATE 1-2 INTERMEDIATE 3-4 INTERMEDIATE 5 PRIMARY B PRIMARY C (so far) What levels are the models forecasting The levels to the right of the main chart are the historical quartiles for Cycle wave B end points. The 3 largest retracements are in red as 2 of them went beyond 100% (which is 4818 and would be a new all-time high). The levels to the left are the same historical data as it relates to movement extensions for the possible end point of Primary wave C inside of Cycle wave B. Models for Cycle B end: 2040 hours to 2059 ( this seems a little quick if Minor wave 3 just finished or is wrapping up). The lower white box is 4740-4755. The higher white box is 4790-4818. I figure we have at least a week left of this thing, maybe through end of year depending what Minor 4 does. 2,091 hours is next Friday and is what I stretched the top box out to. Models for Primary C in Cycle B end: Top yellow box is 4910-4920 for market top price. Middle yellow box is 4870-4880. Lower yellow box is 4790-4818. The duration models are all over the place. I will ignore the 2 largest values because they are the lengths of Primary wave A (1442 hours), and Primary wave B (1358). As I have mentioned before, common ratios of waves A to B and to C are 1:1, 1:2, 1:3, 1:4 (and those inverses) when the durations are very small (a few hours long) for micro wave sets. We are dealing with a macro wave in the current instance. Third strongest agreement is 679 hours which is half of Primary wave B's length which will also be ignored. After discounting the common ratios, the strongest agreement is at 220-250 hours, secondary agreement is 480-490, third is 270-290, fourth at 340-350. 232 hours aligns with the end of the lower white box which I assess to be too quick. 290 hours aligns with December 28th. I have placed the yellow boxes at 270-290 hours which straddles the holidays. Additional Calculations for Primary wave C: Primary wave B (1358 hours) was a slightly shorter duration than Primary wave A (1442). This means wave A's duration was 1.0619 times larger. I have sought similar situations when A is 1-1.11 times greater than wave B to understand potential characteristics of our current Primary wave C. Primary wave C is shorter 85.7% of the time. Based on these historics and applying prior ratios to the current conditions for Primary waves A and B, Primary wave C could last between 262-595 hours on the low end, and 711-830 hours on the high end. The market top has a low-end target between 4715-4794, a median at 4878, and high-end at 5096-5496. Based on the move back to Cycle wave B, the current data suggests the next market top could occur before the end of the year and we may fall just shy of 4818. The current setup reminds me of 2000-2009 but on a shorter scale duration wise. The market topped in March of 2000, found a bottom in October 2002 (which I call the end of wave A), moved above the prior market top by October 2007 (end of wave B), and the final wave C and market bottom was March of 2009. I see the similar thing playing out between January 2022-somewhere in early 2025. I will produce an additional analysis based on Minor wave 3 and Minor wave 4 inside of Primary wave C by tomorrow at the latest.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
1
Market Top Within 2 Days Or Less?I am bearish again already (surprise)! The terror in the Red Sea could be the tipping point for future economic calamity now that multiple companies have chosen the longer path to market around South Africa. Going on the premise Minor wave 4 dropped with a quiet whimper, we are possibly in the final Minor wave 5 up. First task is to identify potential tops. The far right percentage levels are the historic retracement levels from a prior analysis for the Cycle wave B top. The solo value to the left is the nearest potential top for Primary wave C (movement extension at 115.13% of Primary wave A). Similar levels for the top of Minor wave 5 are the inner percentage lines on the right. Half of the historic levels are between 4738.57-4794.712. The second study has the most agreement at a top between 4760-4780. Very few models are looking for a top beyond 4785 at this time. Duration models agree the most at 24 hours which was the length of wave 2, but we are in a micro enough of a stage that this level is valid. Another duration pocket is 35-36 trading hours long. Today's close already puts Minor wave 5 at 16 hours long. Third pocket of agreement is 20-22 hours which would occur prior to tomorrow's close. My derivative model has the largest price range at 4770.30-4864.91, tighter range at 4801.75-4854.92, most specific at 4833.20-4844.06. The duration models are at 4-24 hours, 9-22, and 14-18 hours. The final study compares relationships of the other microwaves against similar historical ratios. Minor wave 1 was 0.3174 the movement of Minor wave 3, while Minor wave 2 was 1.1958 times the movement of Minor wave 4. I compared 1:3 values that were 0.28-0.35 and 2:4 values that were 1.1109. This data suggests the length of Minor wave 5 could be between 19-24 hours, with strongest agreement at 22-24 hours. The data suggests the top is no higher than 4797.90, and likely between 4754-4774. I am looking for a possible top in 18-24 hours between 4759-4776. Hour 24 would be the first hour of trading on Wednesday. Last week, when I thought Minor wave 4 was yet to be finished my top was this coming Friday. This move up may be too quick, however, today's new high likely confirms Minor wave 4 had ended prior to my last analysis projecting its end thus making a earlier market top plausible. This theory of the market topping will likely require a few days to confirm which won't be visible until next week, unless the market drops quickly in some regard before this week's end. Happy Holidays as volatility appears ready for a dynamic return!
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Testing Theory One Moves Market…Last night I posited 3 theories: 1) We are still in Intermediate wave A up 2) Intermediate wave C (and Primary wave 2 up) will end this week 3) The market topped last Friday at the close I went into theories 2 and 3 last night but wanted to dedicate more time to theory 1 which will occur here. I first placed the Minor waves (yellow) where they likely ended. I believe everything through Minor wave 4 is accurate. The last step is to project what Minor wave 5 would do based on the data from all prior waves. The models provided me the levels to the far right (coloring coding is spelled out in METHODOLOGY below). I next reviewed possible model agreement for time and price. The lengths appeared to remain less than 16 hours in length. Most models were between 7-12 hours. Prices agreed the most at 4415-4419 with secondary agreement at 4430-4434. Prior to today the high was 4418 and today reached a new high at 4421.76. My target window based on this data remained between 4415-4435. I next applied my beta testing derivative model to the data. It provided the white, yellow, and green boxes. The white box contained all historical end points which means the market top will likely occur in this window. It spanned 3-11 hours between 4393-4454. The median data from the derivative model provided the smallest green box which topped at 4423 (just above the current high). Taking all of these separate models I determined the market top will likely be around 4430 and last 10 hours. I applied this to another program which takes historical data and determines how much each micro wave comprises of the larger macro wave’s final length and movement. I took those median values which the white path pivoted at. Minute wave 1 was expected to last 1 hour and top at 4371.54, wave 2 was 1 hour with a low at 4352.95, wave 3 was 3 hours long with a top at 4410.65, wave 4 lasted a single hour bottoming at 4386.35, and the final 3 hours were for wave 5 to top at 4426.67. I then plotted the green Minute wave numbers based on the actual market swings thus far. It appeared waves 1 and 2 were pretty spot on. Minute wave 3 likely lasted 2 more hours with a higher top at Friday’s high of 4418. Considering all of these models it is quite possible the current market top is in. The next leg of the adventures should be down. I will complete another analysis tomorrow projecting where Intermediate wave B could end. There is still a chance theory 2 from yesterday has occurred or will occur, but the ultimate direction for the next 1-2 weeks should be down. METHODOLOGY As a data scientist, I operate a modified wave theory loosely composed of rules and principles from Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. I develop theories based on suspected wave locations in time and lay out hypotheses to test. Once the movement occurs, I determine which path played out and repeat the process for the next movement. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Drop soon, but how long?The movement of the past week has raised many questions as to where the market is which we will attempt to answer in this analysis. The long duration Intermediate wave A, followed up with a quick and tiny drop for Intermediate wave B presented characteristics I have compared to similar historical events. The best way to categorize this pattern is by comparing Wave A to Wave B’s duration (or hourly bars), movement, and rise over run or movement divided by duration. I took those values in the current case and compared them to historics to attempt to determine where Intermediate wave C could end. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A IS AT LEAST 3x LONGER THAN WAVE B? Currently, wave A’s duration of 50 trading hours was 3.8462 times longer than wave B’s 13. I studied similar instance where the ratio between A and B’s bars were between 3 and 5 to determine what could happen next. Based on the results I took the prior ratios of A/C and applied it to wave A’s actual 50 bar length to determine what C could do. The results are a mix between 7 and 38 trading hours for wave C. Of note, these are all less than wave A’s length. If the max hold true, wave C and the market top could occur no later than this Friday, November 17 at 1230 eastern time. While 7 trading hours is the lowest value, it could be an outlier so moving to the next lowest at 21 trading hours could place the low on or after the final hour of trading on Tuesday, November 14. Using the same process, the potential tops based on the A/C ratio that are possible are 4489.87 and 4501.87. I do not like any others greater than 4503. I next move over to the same concept but based on the expressed BC ratio for historical waves where A to B’s bars were between 3 and 5. The potential lengths max out at 38 hours again with a tight grouping around 28-30 hours. 29 hours is the first hour of trading on November 16. Of the potential tops, 2 of them are in still in play but likely to be hit within the first 1-2 trading days of this week at 4422.27 and 4441.24. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A’S MOVEMENT IS 6x LARGER THAN WAVE B’S MOVEMENT? Wave A’s movement of a 287.42 point gain divided by wave B’s paltry 47.26 point loss resulted in wave A being 6.0817 times larger than wave B. I studied historical occasions where wave A was 6 times larger than wave B to attempt to determine what could happen next. The potential lengths in this case appear to hold a 1:1 relationship which is why so many results indicate wave C can be 50 bars long. Some of these results are for micro waves wherein wave A may have only been 1 to 2 bars and the following wave C was also 1 to 2 bars. I will not consider the 50 bars as the current market is quite close to the top and 50 bars would take too long to get there. The potential lengths of interest appear to be in the 10 to 13, maybe 17 trading hour zone. Hour 10 will occur tomorrow within the first 3 hours of trading and hour 13 is later in the day. Hour 17 ends before 1230 eastern time on November 14. Nearly all of the project ed tops have occurred with the exception of 4478.88. While considering wave C from the B/C ratio and applying wave B’s length of 13 hours, all results point to 13 hours. This is not helpful, even though 13 is a length already derived and taken into consideration. Once again, most of the moves have already occurred except for four notables at 4433.11, 4446.68, 4462.09, and 4496.39. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A’S RISE OVER RUN IS 1.5x LARGER THAN WAVE B’S RR? Wave A gained 287.42 points over 50 trading hours creating a rise over run of 5.7484. Wave B lost 47.26 points over 13 trading hours for a rise over run of 3.6354. Taking wave A’s value and dividing by wave B indicates Wave A was 1.5812 times larger. This is not an unusual value as B waves are corrective and most of the time shorter and retrace less than wave A moved. I researched similar instances where the A to B ratio was between 1.5 and 1.7 to determine possible wave C reactions. This generated a much larger list of results with 60 matches. Potential wave C lengths are 7, 8, 10, and 13. Potential market tops of 4459.37 and 4478.88 are possible. The values based on historic B/C rise over run relationships max out at a length of 13 bars again. The only potential tops to occur are 4451.35 and 4496.39. Another application of historical studies place lines correlating to percentages on charts for potential movement retracement and movement extensions. There is too much data to list all possible datapoints but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Potential reversal levels based on historic Intermediate wave Cs in Primary wave 2s have strongest agreement of reversal between 4415-4419, and secondary is 4430-4434. Similarly, based on data for waves ending in 2C2C, strongest agreement is at 4515-4519 with shared secondaries 4415-4419 and 4485-4489. Lastly, the broad data for waves ending in 2C indicates the market top could also be at 4415-4419, with secondaries at 4420-4425. Bottom Line Analysis: There are three major things to consider. The first is that all movement so far is only Intermediate wave A. While this is possible, Intermediate wave B will likely begin soon with a drop. The second theory is Intermediate wave C will end this week. We will likely see upward movement likely no higher than 4500 this week with my primary target below 4471 before Wednesday. I like the values between 4459-4462. Playing this second theory out, median historical models have Minor wave 1 inside of Intermediate wave C at 1 hour top at 4390.29, wave 2 down in 2 hours at 4349.60, wave 3 at 3 hours long high at 4423.27, wave 4 down to 4382.76 in an hour and final wave 5 to 4456.04 in 2 hours. Actual wave reversal points are: Some of our historical levels to consider pointed to a top around 4415-4416 to include. Some of our possible durations were at 7 trading hours as well which would have concluded with Friday’s close where the market peaked at 4418.03. Many models are hinting at the market top being in. After Friday’s market close, Moody’s downgraded the US Credit Rating. This could see declines on Monday. While I think theory two is possible, theory three cannot be discounted. We will see how trading begins on Monday and Theories 1 and 3 both should begin with declines on Monday, and it could take a week to actually know which one is unfolding. Once Primary wave 2 is over, I am initially projecting a near thousand-point loss in the S&P 500 index by May 2024. The cause is unknown, I have been looking at China invading Taiwan for over a year. I figure this could cripple the semiconductor industry which controls much of the things we use throughout the world whether a conflict destroys the manufacturing ability or hands monopolistic control to the Chinese, the outcome will likely be devasting in the short-term. Nearly everything in the world relies on a chip or component moving through Taiwan, as the world’s eggs are basically in one basket. METHODOLOGY As a data scientist, I operate a modified wave theory loosely composed of rules and principles from Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. I develop theories based on suspected wave locations in time and lay out hypotheses to test. Once the movement occurs, I determine which path played out and repeat the process for the next movement.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
This week’s top will depend on….The Minor wave 4 end point will determine if Minor wave 5 (and Intermediate wave A) ends this week. This corrective wave has been tremendous, but possibly too fast. Minor wave 3 thus far has already broken above the preliminary estimates for the end of Intermediate wave A. The initial Intermediate wave A locations were based on the idea Primary wave 2 would last 278 hours and gain a total of 307 points from the low of 4103 as outlined in this idea: The movement thus far about the initial Intermediate wave A endpoint indicates the final market top is now above 4416 as opposed to around 4385. Intermediate wave A is also on pace to finish this week which is a week early. This earlier finish could point to the final market top occurring in early- to mid-December instead of the final week. Minor wave 4 does not appear to have occurred last week. The hourly chart continued to achieve wave 3 signals until the final hour of trading on Friday (visible in the EW_3_V2 indicator at the bottom of the chart when the green bars stopped painting a light blue background). This appears to indicate the final 30 minutes on Friday began Minor wave 4 downward. This analysis will project Minor wave 4’s movement based on completed waves to this point. The new derivative model indicates likely movement zones based on historical data. The small green box is based on median move and duration data, while the yellow box contains the first through third of historical quartile data. The white box should contain the overall end point as it is comprised of all common historical movement. The percentage levels to the right are based on another model-type of relational wave data. The most specific quartile data are the pink levels with the top one at 38.01% being the first quartile, middle one of 47.67% as the median and the 72.04% level is the third quartile. The historical maximum wave 4 retracement is the red level at 84.72% and most likely will not come into play for the pending wave 4 down. The next slightly broader dataset are the light blue levels and the yellow levels are the broadest dataset used. Based on these models Monday should be somewhat of a downward moving day. I would speculate the low and end to Minor wave 4 occurs on Monday, but there is a chance it happens early Tuesday as well. Once Minor wave 4 is completed, Minor wave 5 should take the market up. A general Elliott wave principle is use nearly all of the time is the length of a third wave cannot be shorter than waves 1 and 5. Right now Minor wave 1 was 16 hours and wave 2 was only 14. This would indicate Minor wave 5 must be 14 hours or less. This means the market top for this week should occur prior to the close on Wednesday and then the market will begin Intermediate wave B’s downward movement for the next week and change. In the event Minor wave 3 did not end on Friday, then the market will likely achieve another high greater than 4373.62 within the first hour or two on Monday and then begin Minor wave 4’s downward movement. A new high after the first hour of trading makes Minor wave 3 equal to or longer than Minor wave 1’s movement and no longer restricts the length of Minor wave 5. Based on the accelerated pace and high achieved in Minor wave 3, Minor wave 5’s top this week likely wont go above 4420, but that will be determined better once Minor wave 4 has completed. Although a new high should occur this week, it does not appear this week will continue the red hot movement from last week. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Market Tops Tomorrow?The index never dropped today, which points to the second thesis that we were already in the final Minor wave 5 upward. The SP:SPX is not clear on position and waves, however, the futures are much clearer. This 15 minute chart outlines the possible Minor wave 4 path from start to finish along with current position in Minor wave 5. The bottom for the market was the low from July 20th. This means wave 5 is 2 days old and tomorrow is day 3. Typically wave 5 should move beyond prior wave 3 endpoints. In this case, if Minute wave 3 is in the books (green iii on chart), the market should move above that prior high (July 24) and the prior high established from Minor wave 3 (yellow 3) from July 19. Tomorrow could be a big day of moves with a possible top during the day or on Wednesday pre-Federal Reserve. Assuming we have completed at least Minute wave 3 with the high from July 24, Minute wave 4 could do the following based on hourly data. Based on waves ending in C554, the movement retracement quartiles are 29%, 38.94%, and 60.85%. Models agree the most with Minute wave 4 lasting 1 or 2 hours. Second agreement is at 3 or 4 hours, third is 0 hours, fourth is 6 hours. Based on waves ending in 554, the quartile retracements are 19.68%, 41.47%, and 53.75%. Strongest model agreement has the wave lasting 1 hour (117 models), with second most agreement at 2 hours (91 models), third place is drastically weaker at 0 hours (68 models), and the models are even weaker with 18 of them at 6 hours, 17 at 3 hours, and 16 at 5 hours. Based on waves ending in 54, the quartiles are at 23.17%, 36.355% and 54.07%. Length is 1 hour (581 models), 2 hours (411 models), 0 hours (379), 3 hours (111), 4 hours (95), 6 hours (90). Based on historical data for Minute wave 4 inside Minor wave 5 inside Intermediate wave 5, Minute wave 4 retracement quartiles are 19.53%, 42.535%, and 43.14%. Duration is strongest at 1 hour, then 2 hours, and then 5 hours. The chart currently has Minute wave 4 at 1 hour long and the retracement is near the third quartile or further end of historical data. This could mean Minute wave 4 has already been completed. Furthermore, Minute wave 5 is already 1 hour old. Another factor to note is the length of Minute wave 1 was 6 hours and Minute wave 3 was only 5 hours. A major rule of this wave theory is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest in length. This would require Minute wave 5 (already being 1 hour old) should not be longer than 5 hours total. However, during studies of micro waves this rule has been broken multiple times and may not be a limiting factor in the current instance. There is still a chance the market drops in the first hour of trading below the current Minute wave 4 low of 4547.47 in which case the data in the next paragraph is an hour later than it is stated. Regardless, tomorrow is lining up for the market top. What does the historical data indicate could happen assuming Minute wave 4 has completed? Based on waves ending in C555, the quartile movement extensions are 121.06%, 134.44%, and 171.99%. Models agree the most at 2 hours long, secondary is 1 hour long, third is 5 hours long (possible max based on rule wave 3 cannot be shortest), fourth is 4 hours, fifth is 6 hours. Based on waves ending in 555, the quartile movement extensions are 118.44%, 130.21%, and 159.05%. Model agreements for lengths are 1 hour (114 models), 2 hours (96), 3 hours (60), 5 hours (38), 4 hours (34), 0 hours (28), 7 hours (20). Based on waves ending in 55, the quartile extensions are 113.1%, 126.06%, and 154.92%. The forecasted lengths are 1 hour (626 models), 2 hours (494 models), 3 hours (230), 4 hours (185), 5 hours (174), 0 hours (161), and 6 hours (142). The final dataset is for Minute wave 5s inside of Minor wave 5s, inside of Intermediate wave 5s where the extension quartiles are 106.40%, 121.955%, and 152.06%. Modelled duration is 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours, and 6 hours. The levels for Minor wave 5 are the right most items on the chart above. If Historical data holds true, we may barely make it to 4578 (the current high from Minor wave 3), and north of 4585 does not look possible. After the close are big tech earnings which normally have a bullish push into it. We shall see what happens. If tomorrow is not the top and/or Minute wave 4 or Minor wave 4 decide to return to life, I will analyze more tomorrow night.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
New Program Relooks at Market TopWith our newest program online, we will relook at the market top from an hourly data viewpoint based on historical wave relationships. The first set will determine the expected behavior of Intermediate wave 5, and then Primary wave C will be examined. Current belief is the market is in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave B, Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 5. The shorthand reference for this is the alphanumeric of the waves combined—152BC5. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 5 Intermediate wave 1 was 175 hours and a gain of 360.62 points from the market’s most recent low in mid-March 2023. Intermediate wave 2 then lost 121.20 points in 86 trading hours before Intermediate wave 3 gained 400.19 points in 208 hours. Finally, Intermediate wave 4 lost 120.39 points in 41 trading hours setting up Intermediate wave 5 to complete the cycle with upward movement toward, but likely short of, the all-time market high of 4818 from January 2022. Based on historical wave data for similar waves ending in 52BC5, Intermediate wave 5 is broken up into fourths, or quartiles of possible movement. The first quartile of data suggest wave 5 could extend beyond the movement of Intermediate wave 3’s top (end point) by 106.33% while the data’s median suggests 133.605% and the third quartile is at 152.82%. The maximum recorded extension thus far was 153%. This would indicate the market will top below 4660. Still based on the same dataset, the most amount of models indicate the end of Intermediate wave 5 could occur within 86 trading hours. Second most agreement is a tie among many lengths, but the models are not strong enough. These levels are 96, 104, 123, or 624 hours. As of Friday’s close on July 21, 2023, Intermediate wave 5 is 123 hours long IF it is still ongoing. The current high was on July 19 at 105 trading hours. Based on waves ending in 2BC5, the quartile extension levels are 110.65%, 129.39%, & 152.82% with the maximum extension at 192.58% (nearly double the length of wave 3’s movement). The models for duration agree the strongest on a length of 41 trading hours. Second most agreement is 86 while third is a tie at 52, 175, and 208. Fourth agreement is 26 hours and fifth is 88 hours. Most of these lengths have already been surpassed with the exception of 175 and 208. Based on waves ending in BC5, the quartile extension levels are 113.62%, 127.15%, & 147.45%. Strongest model forecast for length remains at 41 hours, with second most agreement at 208 hours, third at 52 hours, fourth at 246 hours, and fifth at 86 hours. This analysis could also indicate the market topped on July 19, 2023 as it was near two historical reversal levels AND 105 trading hours long which was next to a modelled point. If the top is not in, it could occur on or before August 2 PRIMARY WAVE C Primary wave A began when the market bottomed in mid-October 2022 and gained 608.93 points in 235 trading hours. Primary wave B then lost 291.65 points by the time it bottomed 476 trading hours later. Based on waves ending in 152BC, the quartile extension for Primary wave C are 126.53%, 152.48%, & 161.79% with the maximum at 181.32% (these lines are the right-most scaled on the above chart). The models only agree on one length which is 476 hours, which is the same as Primary wave B which means it may not occur in this instance. Some B waves are a 1:1 length of the following C waves, however, that is generally observed on a much smaller scale which is not the case here. I will wait for the next broader dataset to determine possible lengths. So far all quartiles have been surpassed and the prior maximum observed is at 4595.69. The current market high is at 615 hours, and the market close at trading hour 633 on Friday. Based on waves ending in 52BC, the quartile extension levels are 125.13%, 149.765%, & 166.55%. The models once again agree the most at 476 hours, with second most agreement scattered at 235, 238, & 952 hours. Although not strongly endorsed, the next duration that is projected and is yet to occur is 705 trading hours which is roughly August 7, 2023. CONCLUSION There is a chance the market top has already occurred on July 19, 2023. If it has not occurred, it could occur as early as this coming week. The Federal Reserve has another rate decision on Wednesday and has a history of making for a volatile aftermath. Most of the data in this analysis is pointing to a market top below 4638.36 and possibly below 4596. The duration models do not help as much on an hourly scale. If the values are correct, the market may not top for another whole week. Regardless of the results, this new program should help determine many of the steps down in the pending bear market finale likely rolling through the next trading year.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Wave 5 “UP”dateRescaling Minor wave 1 to the top on June 30, and the low three days later as Minor wave 2 would put market in or near the end of Minor wave 3 up. Based on models ending in C53, Minor wave 3 could last 6 days, with second model agreement at 9 days, third agreement is back at 2 and 4 days. Least agreement is shared at 11, 13, 21, and 30 days. Today is day 9 and could have been the temporary market top. See analysis below to further play out this scenario. The tops based on quartile movement extensions of Minor wave 1 (light blue lines) have the first quartile of data topping at 123.32%, 178.33% is the median and third quartile of all historical data is at 201.70%. The market hit the median yesterday and is halfway between the median and third quartile levels with a current extension of 191.99% meaning the end of Minor wave 3 could have occurred today or will happen soon. Based on waves ending in 53, strongest model agreement is at 6 days again, followed by 9 days. Third most agreement is 4 days followed by 3 days and then 11 days. Regarding movement extension levels, the first quartile and median have already been surpassed and the third quartile remains untouched at 201.70% IF Minor wave 3 ended today, the next movement for the market should be briefly downward. Based on models ending in C54, strongest model agreement would have Minor wave 4 only last one day. Second model agreement is tied at 2 or 3 trading days. A far fourth agreement is 4 days while a further fifth is at 7 days. Movement retracement quartiles are at 28.23%, 37.305%, and 52.09%. Based on waves ending in 54, strongest model agreement is on Minor wave 4 lasting 2 trading days with second most agreement at 1 day and third at 3 days. Models significantly drop off afterward with 4 days in fourth and five days in fifth. The quartile retracement levels are 27.27%, 42.40%, and 57.21%. With day 1 being tomorrow, the market’s next low should occur before week’s end and possibly around 4515-4520. Early indications with Minor wave 1 lasting 4 days, and assuming wave 3 was 9 days, is that the final market top could occur next week. Fed decision is expected Wednesday.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Homing in on market topIf we are in the final Intermediate wave 5 up in Cycle wave B, it is possible we are in the final Minor wave up (wave 5) as well. This would mean Minor waves 1 and 2 lasted a single day, wave 3 was 2 days and wave 4 was 3 days. The original projections for Intermediate wave 5 are the vertical white lines marking the end of day 10 and day 12 as well as the movement extension levels to the outside right side of the chart above. The inner extension levels relate to Minor wave 5’s movement in relation to Minor wave 3 as described below. Based on waves ending in BC55, the length of Minor wave 5 has strongest model agreement at 1 trading day long, with secondary at 6 days long. All models point to a possible extension of Minor wave 1’s movement to place the top around 4519. Based on models ending in C55, strongest model agreement remains at 1 day long, secondary is 2 days, third is 3 days, fourth is 5 or 6 days. The quartile extension levels are 114.82%, 139.60%, and 148.58% which are represented by the yellow lines. Finally is the data for waves ending in 55, wherein the models strongly point to 1 day, then 2 days with third agreement at 3 days. The remaining models are not close and pick up at 5 days. These leads me to believe that Minor wave 5 will likely not surpass 3 trading days in length which places the top on or before the close on Tuesday July 11. Comparing the levels for Minor 5 and matching the levels from Intermediate 5, the top will not likely occur above 4520. Best guess is the market closes the final gap created yesterday and likely tops out around 4484 and possibly no higher than 4500. CPI number comes out Wednesday before the open. There is strong belief the Fed raises rates again soon based on the jobs report from yesterday. A CPI reading with an equal or higher number would all but cement this fact meaning a new top would not occur on Wednesday and would occur Tuesday at the latest. The market will likely close the gap today or it already has which could make this Minute wave 3 up. The day could close stronger, a slight pullback could occur Monday and the final top would be Tuesday. The Fed does not meet until later this month which would mean CPI would likely need to increase in order to spook the markets enough to cause the top now. Many companies have loads of debt that can no longer be refinanced at next to 0% interest levels which will further cause a sell-off and degrade their already inflated evaluations.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Updated Market Top Based On Upward MovementNow that we have returned to Primary wave C in Cycle wave B up, the new forecasted top is contained herein. This will likely extend the final drop into later 2024 than initially proposed in the last analysis since Cycle wave B will likely last an additional month and go higher. We are most likely in the final Intermediate wave 5 up, while it is slightly possible we are in the corrective Intermediate wave 4 down. Confirmation of wave 4 would be a low beneath 4360 before a high above 4480. If in Intermediate wave 5, Intermediate wave 3 was 30 trading days long, gaining 400.19 points and extending 177.36% of Intermediate wave 1’s movement. If Intermediate wave 4 completed, it was 5 trading days long and a loss of 120.39 points for a retracement of 30.08% of Intermediate wave 3’s movement. July 5 would be considered day 6 of Intermediate wave 5 however, the most recent market top was 2 trading days prior at 4458.48. For the market top forecast, Intermediate wave 5 could have the following statistics based on waves ending in 2BC5. Quartile extensions of Intermediate wave 3’s movement (light blue lines) are 121.05%, 153.2%, 186.17%. The models do not point to a specific length however there are windows of potential lengths. Windows are 6-8 days, 12-15 days, and 24-26 trading days long. Based on waves ending in BC5, quartile movements (yellow lines) are 122.06%, 137.71%, and 153.2%. This is interesting as the original median level is now the 3rd quartile movement level which indicates 153.2% may not be achieved. This would indicate the market top remains below 4660.26. The strongest model agreement for length of Intermediate wave 5 is at 8 and 10 days. Second most model agreement is at 4 or 25 trading days, while third agreement is 4, 12, 14, 18, and 20 trading days long. The broadest data set is for waves ending in C5. The quartile levels are (white line) 109.46%, 122.9%, and 151.06%. The models agree the most at a length of 5 or 12 days. Second most agreement at 6 or 10 days long, third at 20 days long, fourth at 9 days, fifth at 7 or 30 days, sixth at 14 days. I have also drawn a new trendline from the beginning of Primary wave C (the low on March 13, 2023) to the end of Intermediate wave 3 (the high on June 16) to act as the prior support line becoming the new resistance. I may use the intersection of this line with the levels mentioned above and the trading day lengths to identify potential reversal points. Additional considerations should be made in determining how far into Intermediate wave 5 are we if that is the correct wave structure. Intermediate wave 5 is composed of 5 Minor waves and each minor wave is composed of Minute waves. A 30 minute chart indicates my wave 3 indicator was signaled around the highs from June 30. This indicates that Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 1 was completed or Minor wave 3 was completed. Intermediate wave 5 is nearing completion if Minor wave 3 was already accomplished and the total top could be as soon as July 7th. If the market is still early in Minor wave 1 then the market top could be more than 10 trading days away. Potential intersection points for 8 days long (July 7th) are at a top of 4485.21 or 4531.60. Intersections for 10 days long (July 11) are the same levels as 8 days with a top falling just shy of 4600 (the original forecasted top from July 2022). 12 days would extend the top just above 4600, and 14 days places the top around the 4630 range. 20 days is the max on the model agreement and tops out around 4685-4690. Based on the levels, lines, days and consideration of intersections I don’t think the market top occurs after mid-week next week. Economic reports are this Thursday and Friday with the CPI reading next Wednesday. Although month over month inflation continues to increase in the U.S. the number has declined each month. A rise in this report and lower job losses this week could support a new Fed hike as early as then end of July. I would place the market top around July 11-12 around 4530. This would further support the theory Minor wave 3 has indeed completed and Minor wave 5 could have a drawn out 5 wave structure upward. Once again, we shall see if this is the top. I will provide updated downward targets next weekend once this forecasted movement completes. Feel free to follow for updates and future forecasts.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Is tomorrow the day we predicted last year to be the market top?FOR THE FULL ANALYTICAL RIGOR THAT IS WORTH READING START HERE (otherwise skip to the section titled if you only care about the future “START HERE IF YOU SKIPPED THE TOP”) It has been a long year since we got the program working, calculating probabilities, and identifying where we likely were in time. Sometime early 2022, I realized what would happen if we took all S&P 500 price data, applied structured Elliott Wave Theory to it, identified the relationships between all macro and micro wave structures, and determined our current location in time to forecast future movement. By early July 2022, I realized if we completed SubMillennial wave 1--Grand Supercycle 5--Supercycle 1 in January 2022, then I could take prior wave relationships to forecast the 3 waves inside of Supercycle 2 based on the data from Supercycle wave 1. This forecast can be found here: It forecasted the bottom of the first wave down (Cycle wave A) to end around October 18, 2022, the top of the second wave up (Cycle wave B) to end around mid-July 2023, and the final bottom (Cycle wave C and Supercycle wave 2) likely in the first quarter of 2025. I would update my program every time I believed waves completed and re-calculate these points and the movement over the next few weeks to months. Feel free to head to my profile to view all ideas. A few reversal points did occur earlier or later than forecasted at higher and lower levels, but I learned the original forecasts were normally the most accurate. One of the key places I rushed a forecast was as we got closer to October 18th I had the bottom occurring later in the October or closer to November. This August 20, 2022 analysis had the levels and days for the bottom spot on, but I temporarily went a different way. The relational data was proving more and more accurate. The actual bottom in October was on the 13th instead of the first forecast of the 18th. I finally accepted the bottom by December 5, 2022, once I went back to review my older analysis. From there the program continued to call waves out well, with Primary wave A happening lower than expected but on the date as seen in the December 5th analysis above. Primary wave B was long and the internal wave C never broke below the initial wave A which was confusing, however Primary wave B was forecasted on December 6th to occur in the middle of March and sure enough it occurred on March 13, 2023 as seen below: But after this original forecasting from the program I continued to attempt to find Primary B in many places after a traditional ABC wave down which never came. Finally by March 2, I reviewed my original analysis and updated Primary wave B to end around March 14 and it ended March 13 as seen here: Upon completion of Primary wave B, I forecasted the market top and end of Primary wave C. The forecasted date was June 16th no higher than 4403.88 as seen here: After the completion of Minor wave 2 inside of Intermediate wave 1, I updated the market top to June 20th, based on Intermediate wave 1 likely lasting longer than initially expected when Minor wave 1 ran long as seen here: At this time I loosely placed Intermediate waves 1-5 in their projected locations as well. The market top was re-adjusted again back to June 16th on April 9th as seen here: Intermediate wave 2 was forecasted on April 17th as was spot on on April 26th here: Intermediate wave 3 was much longer than expected after gaining 33% of the expected gain in the first day followed by being slow and trading sideways at times too which is very abnormal of a wave 3. By May 7, I had backed the market top back up to July and then debt ceiling chaos broke out. With the debt ceiling resolved Intermediate wave 3 was still slowly moving. Then my program threw me for the biggest curveball I could not believe and thought it was an error. Intermediate wave 3 had finally wrapped up. All preceding waves to that point had been 12-25 days long. In my wisdom, Intermediate wave 4 would likely be in the middle of that range. The program urged it would only be 2 days AND only retrace 15.06% of Intermediate wave 3’s movement. I was skeptical but went with it and said it could last 4 days. Intermediate wave 4 lasted only 3 days and after I adjusted the Fibonacci tool retracement levels, 15.06% said the bottom would be at 4261.479 as seen here: The actual bottom was 4261.07. Finally on June 8, 2023 Ziggy spits out the plan for Intermediate wave 5 as seen here: START HERE IF YOU SKIPPED THE TOP The models are pointing for Intermediate wave 5 to last between 3-5 days with the likely top around 4393.93. I chose 4 days and around but not likely over 4400. After all the projections and models and recalculations over the past year we are here. Still around 4400 and back to mid-June. AND it’s Fed day with some high expectations of no hikes and word of a future cut in 2023. Elation should follow if this happens, but what else is going on. Inflation since 2021 is now around 16% and has increased every month since mid-2021. Wages for everyone have not increased even close to 16%. Mortgages are around 7%, not many people rushing to trade their 2% mortgage for a 7% mortgage now. Students with loan need to start paying the piper as they begin to accrue new interest again. Those that did not wisely save their payments and collect interest on that money over the past two years are about to give up some luxuries which means retailers and restaurants are will soon see declining sales. Chaos bound to rattle the 2024 Presidential tickets is just gaining steam with outcomes unknown. Meanwhile the VIX was at its lowest level since pre-COVID last Friday signaling complacency in an economy that continues to lay off workers. All the numbers are not moving synchronously in the proper directions which likely precedes market corrections. In this case, based on all the data, this is likely the major bear market I identified last year. I can always be wrong, or we can go up a little higher before correcting. But I have learned my lesson to trust the original analysis and that says the top is in. It would be smart to not repeat 2008 and watch your retirement accounts and 401Ks plummet 50% when you have the opportunity to do something about it today. Maybe move to cash or something with less exposure to major companies and indices or the G Fund for you government employees. You may not make much money and can always switch it up if the program is wrong, or you can save your retirement and sit out of the market for 14-18 months until we find the bottom. While others begin recovering and realize they need to pick up a second job or leave retirement for work again (Tom Brady might not mind) to survive, you could then ride the next major bull market up. Follow me if you would like to see where the models take us moving forward.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
Good Start To Wave 3, More To FollowNow that last week has settled, it looks like PATH TWO was the chosen path from Like most of my analyses the original analysis is normally the correct one. Most premature analyses tend to rush a process that should otherwise be left alone. What does this mean? Intermediate wave 2 was later than initially projected and did not go as low per In fact, the analysis from last weekend using Minor wave A and B data indicated it would no longer drop to 3950. The likely floor would be no lower than 4000 and could break just below the end of Minor wave A which was 4049.35. The call for the bottom could have been at 4049.03 and for now the bottom was 4048.28. This low provides Intermediate wave 3 the room to gain the original projection of 300 over a few weeks, however Friday got a chunk of that. The projection for the end of Intermediate wave 3: Based on waves ending in 2BC3, Intermediate wave 3 could last 17, 42, or 48 days. The quartiles for potential movement (light blue lines) are a 110.75% extension of Intermediate wave 1, 302.37%, and 371.04%. Based on waves ending in BC3, strongest model agreement for length are at 12, 25, and 48 days. The quartile movement extensions (yellow lines) are 142.75%, 244.81%, and 261%. Based on waves ending in C3, strongest model agreement has Intermediate wave 3 lasting 12 or 25 days. Next strongest is at 24, 36, 50, and 62 days. The models become more diluted after that. The quartiles (white lines) are 144.13%, 209.13%, and 302.37%, respectively. In digesting the models, a slow wave 3 is not likely to occur especially with a diagonal trendline (thicker dashed red at top) which has been a pillar of resistance since Cycle wave B began in October 2022. 42 days long would put the end of Intermediate wave 3 around July 6th. The aforementioned trendline would be around 4424 at that point. 25 days long would place another potential wave ending around June 9th. The trendline would be around 4390. For Fibonacci traders this is pretty much at the 161.80% “Golden Ratio.” 12 days would be around May 19th, aligning with a 150% extension of Intermediate wave 1 at 4350. Another possibility is the diagonal resistance line is temporarily broken as a bull trap. This would mean the index strongly goes above the trendline before correcting significantly. We are near the end of the larger corrective wave which began in October. After the impulse wave up, we should have a drop in the index possibly over a single week before a quick move up again. If Intermediate wave 3 is shorter than Intermediate wave 1’s length of 25 trading days, then Intermediate wave 5 must be equal to or shorter than Intermediate wave 3 as Intermediate wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. This is crucial to keep in mind. This is my most expected scenario if the index moves above 4300 within the next 7-10 trading days. I have laid out many possibilities and only time will tell, but I doubt Intermediate wave 3 is longer than 25 days, especially after a strong day 1 on Friday. I further expect the top to remain below 4393. I will continue to provide updates as the index moves along and completes the Minor waves inside of Intermediate wave 3. I am not settled on the end of Cycle wave B yet, but the current estimation is before the end of June. The potential catalysts for tops the summer remain Debt Ceilling Debacle and China action against Taiwan. A potential scenario for the end of Intermediate wave 3 is a temporary impasse on the debt ceiling vote in which the US defaults for a few days leading to Intermediate wave 4 or wave 3 ends when a band-aid 3 week extension is permitted. End of cycle wave B could be brought on if there is no solution by the end of June and no band-aid bill is passed. The China scenario would be a decision to invade Taiwan and taking control of the semiconductor chip market. All countries and products requiring chips would be impacted. Some companies have been working quickly to establish plants, factories, and resource mining in other places throughout the world, but China could cause chaos by taking more control of Taiwan.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Next Short-Term Tops En Route To 4400With the likely conclusion of Minor waves (yellow numbers) 1 and 2, I am providing a short-term update. I have taken the final values from both of these waves to forecast the end of Minor wave 3. I originally had the entirety of Intermediate wave (pink numbers) 1 ending by April 6 around 4112, but that will now likely occur a little later. The centermost wave extension numbers relate to the likely end of Minor wave 3 and are based on historical movements considering the wave data from the completion of Minor waves 1 and 2. Minor wave 1 was seven days long, while wave 2 was two days long. Based on historical applications, wave 3 will likely last 6-8 days with a top between 4112 and 4135. Minor wave 4 would likely be a short drop and potentially only last 1-2 days. Intermediate wave 1 is now most likely around April 12 possibly near 4165. Intermediate wave 2-5 are still early projections and they will be updated in time. I have slid the end of Cycle wave (orange letter ‘b’) B back one more day for the moment with the final market top around June 20, 2023. It would still most likely occur at the top of the trend line as it is placed on this chart. The wave extension numbers to the far right relate to the likely end of Cycle wave B, Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 5 since they are all the same event. These levels and timeframes are based on the historical application of Cycle wave A and Primary waves A & B inside of the current Cycle wave B. Next week’s rise is likely attributed to a slow news week where ‘no news is good news.’
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
1
The Path To 2400 Goes Through...The bottom was on track timewise from my last analysis, however, the bottom was not as low as projected. Intermediate wave C inside of Primary wave B ended higher than I would have liked but 86% retracement of an A wave in an overall corrective wave is not unusual. Here is the estimated path to the high. Analysis of historical data has Primary wave C lasting 34-67 days. The path for 67 days is laid out here in which the final top flirts with 4400 around June 16, 2023. I will re-look at the path as each of the 5 Intermediate waves finalize. Typical catalysts could be the Fed and CPI numbers, however the debt ceiling deadline falls in line with the top. I have zero doubt we are heading for the worse part of this correction, but the path is likely through 4400 first.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
According to this, the market tops tomorrowWe have been working to finish Minor 5 since earlier today which will also end Intermediate wave C and Primary wave 4. Afterward the market will likely find new 52-week lows somewhere around 3400 by September/October of this year. By dissecting Intermediate wave C so far, we notice Minor wave 1 (yellow) was approximately 14 hours long and Minor wave 3 was only 10 hours long. Per the Elliott Wave rules, wave 3 cannot be the shortest. This would imply wave 5 must be no longer than 10 hours long. Assuming Minor wave 4 ended today within the first hour of trading, Wave 5 must end before 1330 eastern time tomorrow. The first set of Fibonacci levels are extensions based off of Minor wave 3 as its marked. The middle fibs are based on Intermediate wave A’s movement and the levels to the far right are the retracement of Primary 4 in relation to Primary 3’s movement. There appears to be some key levels around the 4040 range. This could be the area for the top tomorrow. ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS This end was a few days earlier than my initial forecast, but plausible. Another possibility is that we are early in Minor wave 3 (likely in the early stages of its own wave 3). If this is true, then we would achieve a new high AFTER 1330 tomorrow. There does not appear to be anything newsworthy to stop momentum in the middle of day so this idea of remaining in wave 3 is likely. If we are in the middle stages of wave 3, we would likely find a top above 4100 early next week. I ultimately think we will begin trending down before the Fed comes out with the official rate. It will likely be 100 basis points or greater as well. We shall see what holds true.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
5