$SPY Bullish Breakout: Cup & Handle Formation on Weekly Chart The AMEX:SPY is exhibiting a compelling technical formation on its weekly chart. A classic cup and handle pattern has emerged, signalling a potential bullish breakout.
The cup and handle pattern observed over the past several months on the AMEX:SPY not only signals a bullish continuation following a period of consolidation but also aligns with the current Stochastic Oscillator readings below 70, emphasizing the potential for upward movement without immediate overextension. This formation, marked by a stabilizing rounding bottom and a subsequent minor pullback, reflects a growing bullish momentum, further reinforced by the Stochastic Oscillator's position, which adds confidence in the face of the ongoing market volatility.
Based on this analysis, a tactical trade can be structured as follows:
Entry Point: Consider entering the trade at the current level, as the price breaks out of the handle.
Stop Loss: To manage risk effectively, set a stop loss at the low of the handle. This placement protects against unforeseen reversals in the pattern.
Take Profit: The take profit target is set at the high of the cup. This offers an attractive near 2:1 profit-to-loss ratio, aligning with sound risk-reward principles.
Risk Management: As always, traders should align this trade with their individual risk tolerance and portfolio strategy.
This analysis presents a bullish case for AMEX:SPY , supported by both pattern recognition and oscillator readings. While the setup is promising, traders are reminded to conduct their analysis and consider market dynamics.
Disclaimer:
This idea is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Trading involves risks, and it is crucial to do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Marketanalysis
15 Essential Topics to Transform into a Pro Trader 📈💹
Embarking on a journey to become a professional forex trader requires a solid understanding of various key topics. Whether you're a beginner or looking to enhance your trading skills, mastering these 15 forex topics will set you on the path to success. Let's dive into the essentials! 💪
1. Understanding Forex Basics 🌐
- Learn the basics of currency pairs, exchange rates, and market participants.
2. Fundamental Analysis 📰
- Explore economic indicators and events affecting currency values.
3. Technical Analysis 📊
- Study charts, patterns, and indicators to make informed trading decisions.
4. Risk Management Strategies 🛡
- Implement effective risk management to protect your capital.
5. Trading Psychology 🧠
- Master emotions and discipline for consistent trading success.
6. Different Trading Styles 🔄
- Explore day trading, swing trading, and position trading.
7. Leverage and Margin 📊
- Understand the risks and benefits of trading with leverage.
8. Market Order vs. Limit Order ⏩
- Differentiate between instant execution and pending orders.
9. Interest Rates and Carry Trade 📈
- Learn how interest rates impact currency values and the carry trade strategy.
10. Correlation in Forex Markets 🔄
- Understand how currency pairs move in relation to each other.
11. Economic Calendar Awareness 📆
- Stay updated on economic events and their potential impact.
12. Backtesting and Demo Trading 📊
- Test strategies in a risk-free environment before trading live.
13. Diversification Strategies 🌐
- Spread risk by trading various currency pairs and assets.
14. Market Sentiment Analysis 📈📉
- Gauge the mood of the market to anticipate price movements.
15. Continuous Learning and Adaptation 📚
- Stay updated on market trends, technologies, and regulations.
Becoming a pro trader involves continuous learning and a commitment to mastering these essential forex topics. With dedication and practice, you can navigate the complexities of the forex market and trade with confidence. Happy trading! 🚀💰
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
Crude Oil Correction - Bearish Scenario (4H)Brent Crude Oil Forecast 🛢️ TVC:UKOIL
Recent sessions saw a surge in Brent crude futures, hitting the top of a descending channel and undergoing huge correction currently. This paves the way for potential fall from 82.00 to 80 then 79.
The bearish trend remains strong as price got rejected from the 100-day moving average (4H timeframe). A break above 83 could signal bullish move.
Note: Keep an eye on unexpected movements due to Fed's meeting minutes and ongoing conflict between Palestine and Israel.
Support lines: 80.00
Resistance lines: 83.00
Comment down below your thoughts about my analysis, Thank you!
📉 Nifty 50 Index: Short Opportunity on the HorizonGreetings, fellow traders!
Today, our focus is on the NSE:NIFTY index. Here's the breakdown:
📈 Upward Movement: The index has been on an upward trajectory, recently approaching the 200-day moving average.
🚨 Near Resistance: However, it's currently near a significant resistance level, suggesting potential selling pressure.
💡 Short Selling Opportunity: I'm eyeing a short opportunity in the range of 19,500 to 19,800 for this index.
📉 Option Buying Strategy: For option buyers, consider 19,800PE or 20,000PE strike prices to capitalize on a potential downward move.
📆 Timing: This bearish outlook is anticipated to unfold in the coming days.
📌 Important Note: Trading involves risks. Make sure to conduct your analysis and manage your risk accordingly.
🤔 Your Strategy: What's your take on the Nifty 50 index? Are you aligning with this short opportunity, or do you have a different perspective? Share your insights!
👋 Until Next Time: Thank you for tuning in. Goodbye for now, and see you in the next post.
Best regards,
Alpha Trading Station
DXY, VIX Down = SPY, STONKS UP. Blowoff Top Continues!Traders,
It has been an amazingly bullish last couple of weeks both in the stonk world and in cryptos. In this video I cover what has occurred from a technical basis and what I think the charts are now showing us. In short, stonks look to continue their upward trends but crypto is less certain. I also wanted to explain why I went short on a few trades. What was I thinking then and what I am thinking now? Was I too early on my entries or just plain wrong?
Stewdamus
📈 AEGISCHEM: A Promising Investment OpportunityHello, traders!
Today, we're focusing on NSE:AEGISCHEM . Here's what's happening:
📈 Steady Upside Movement: AEGISCHEM is on a consistent upward trajectory, forming higher highs and showing signs of strength.
🔝 Breaking Previous Highs: It recently broke its previous high, which is a significant development.
🔍 Retest Opportunity: Currently, it's retracing and coming down to retest the support from the parallel channel, and I've marked a potential long position on the chart for your reference.
🚫 Not Guaranteed: However, keep in mind that trading is about high-probability entries, not guarantees. While this opportunity has great potential, always perform your due diligence.
🕰️ Investment Perspective: This isn't just a short-term trading play; it's an opportunity with investment potential. Take a closer look and consider your investment strategy.
📌 Important Note: This isn't a definitive investment recommendation. Make informed decisions and manage your risk appropriately.
🤔 Your Strategy: What's your take on AEGISCHEM? Are you considering it for your investment portfolio? Share your insights with us!
🚀 Stay Informed: Keep following for more trading and investment insights.
Best regards,
Alpha Trading Station 🌟
BluetonaFX - EURUSD Pre NFP ReportHi Traders!
Ahead of the NFP announcement later, EURUSD is trading near its weekly high in anticipation of possible weak jobs data coming out of the US.
Price Action 📊
The market's price action is currently bearish, largely due to the double-top pattern. The market recently had price rejections at the weekly high of 1.06750. That being said, we are currently still above the 20 EMA and must be wary of this.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
The US recently posted weaker than expected PMI figures and ADP Non-Farm employment change, and with the Fed not committing to further interest rate hikes, traders may back to being nervous about the US dollar again if the NFP number is weak.
Support 📉
1.06149: 20 EMA
1.05166: WEEKLY LOW
Resistance 📈
1.06750: WEEKLY HIGH
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
Learn the 3 TYPES of MARKET ANALYSIS
In the today's post, we will discuss 3 types of analysis of a financial market.
🛠1 - Technical Analysis
Technical analysis focuses on price action, key levels, technical indicators and technical tools for the assessment of a market sentiment.
Pure technician thoroughly believes that the price chart reflects all the news, all the actions of big and small players. With a proper application of technical strategies, technical analysts make predictions and identify trading opportunities.
In the example above, the trader applies price action patterns, candlestick analysis, key levels and 2 technical indicators to make a prediction that the market will drop to a key horizontal support from a solid horizontal resistance.
📰2 - Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysts assess the key factors and related data that drive the value of an asset.
These factors are diverse: it can be geopolitical events, macro and micro economic news, financial statements, etc.
Fundamental traders usually make trading decision and forecasts, relying on fundamental data alone and completely neglecting a chart analysis.
Price action on Gold on a daily time frame could be easily predicted, applying a fundamental analysis.
A bearish trend was driven by FED Interest Rates tightening program,
while a strong bullish rally initiated after escalation of Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
📊🔬 3 - Combination of Technical and Fundamental Analysis
Such traders combine the principles of both Technical and Fundamental approaches.
When they are looking for trading opportunities, they analyze the price chart and make predictions accordingly.
Then, they analyze the current related fundamentals and compare the technical and fundamental biases.
If the outlooks match, one opens a trading position.
In the example above, Gold reached a solid horizontal daily support.
Testing the underlined structure, the price formed a falling wedge pattern and a double bottom, breaking both a horizontal neckline and a resistance of the wedge.
These were 2 significant bullish technical confirmation.
At the same time, the escalation of Israeli-Palestinian conflict left a very bullish fundamental confirmation.
It is an endless debate which method is better.
Each has its own pros and cons.
I strongly believe that one can make money mastering any of those.
Just choose the method that you prefer, study it, practice and one day you will make it.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BluetonaFX - EURUSD Under Serious PressureHi Traders!
Today is a big day for the EURUSD with the ECB's interest rate decision followed by their press conference. The pair is under some pressure and is approaching its yearly low at 1.04485, and we could see that being broken depending on the ECB's decision today.
Price Action 📊
The market recently broke its long-term ascending price channel, and momentum looks to be on the bearish side. The market is also below the 20 EMA.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
The Eurozone has shown strong Flash PMI data recently, so traders will be looking for positive statements from the ECB regarding the Eurozone's inflation issues.
Support 📉
1.05090: PREVIOUS WEEK'S LOW
1.04485: YEARLY LOW
Resistance 📈
1.06946: CURRENT WEEK'S HIGH
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Cannot Break 150Hi Traders!
USDJPY is struggling to break the psychological 150 level, and there might be a possibility of the US dollar slowing down due to strong data coming out of Europe.
Price Action 📊
The market has reached the psychological level of 150 and has been trying to break the level for the past three weeks without any success.
The market may have run out of buyers and may need new waves of buyers to enter the market, which may provide short-term selling opportunities.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
The US dollar continues to trade strongly amid rising yields and escalating tensions in the Middle East, after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stopped short of hinting that US interest rates have peaked.
Strong data has started to come out of Europe with better-than-expected Flash PMIs across the EU and the UK.
Support 📉
145.073: PREVIOUS RANGE ZONE RESISTANCE
Resistance 📈
150.000: PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL
151.946: APEX LEVEL
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - EURAUD Falling Wedge LONG IdeaHi Traders!
There is a falling wedge pattern on EURAUD, which signals a possible reversal of the bearish trend we have seen over the past couple of months.
Price Action 📊
An aggressive price rejection candle followed by a momentum swing suggests that bulls are currently in control of the market.
We are looking for a further bullish momentum break above the resistance trendline.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
Australia left their interest rates unchanged, and the statement from the RBA left traders unconfident about Australia's economic outlook.
Support 📉
1.63946: PREVIOUS DAY'S LOW
Resistance 📈
1.66430:RESISTANCE TRENDLINE
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
Navigating Market Turbulence: Unveiling the Bearish Flag Pattern
In the world of technical analysis, patterns often provide valuable insights into potential market movements. One such pattern, the bearish flag, is a vital tool for traders seeking to identify and capitalize on bearish trends. In this comprehensive guide, we'll explore the bearish flag pattern, uncovering its characteristics, formation, and implications. With real-world examples, you'll gain the knowledge to spot this pattern and make informed trading decisions in bearish market conditions.
Demystifying the Bearish Flag Pattern
What is a Bearish Flag Pattern? 🚩
The bearish flag pattern is a continuation pattern that occurs during a downtrend. It resembles a flag on a flagpole, hence its name. This pattern suggests a brief consolidation or pause in the downtrend before the price resumes its downward trajectory.
Key Characteristics of a Bearish Flag
1. Prior Downtrend: The bearish flag pattern forms after a notable downtrend, indicating bearish sentiment in the market.
2. Flagpole: The flagpole is the initial sharp decline in price that precedes the flag's formation. It represents the strong selling pressure.
3. Flag Formation: Following the flagpole, there is a period of consolidation where the price moves in a horizontal or slightly upward range. This forms the flag itself and indicates a temporary pause in the downtrend.
4. Volume: Ideally, the volume should decline during the flag formation, reflecting a decrease in trading activity.
5. Breakout: The bearish flag is confirmed when the price breaks below the lower boundary of the flag, resuming the downtrend.
Bearish Flag in a Stock
Bearish Flag in a Forex Pair
The bearish flag pattern is a valuable tool for traders seeking to navigate bearish market conditions. By understanding its characteristics and monitoring its formation, traders can identify potential opportunities to profit from the resumption of a downtrend. However, like all technical patterns, it should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis to make well-informed trading decisions. The bearish flag pattern is a powerful addition to any trader's toolkit for analyzing and interpreting market dynamics. 📉🚩
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Love you, my dear followers!👩💻🌸
Deciphering DXY: The Dollar Index Explained 💵📊
The world of forex and global finance is filled with acronyms and indices that influence markets daily. One of the most critical and widely tracked indices is DXY, which represents the U.S. Dollar Index. In this comprehensive guide, we'll dive into what DXY is, why it matters to traders and investors, and how it can impact your financial decisions. By the end, you'll have a clear understanding of this essential indicator and its role in the financial world.
Unveiling DXY: The Dollar Index
What is DXY?
DXY, often referred to simply as the Dollar Index, is a measure of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. It provides a weighted average of the dollar's exchange rates against some of the world's most traded currencies.
Composition of DXY
The Dollar Index is composed of six major world currencies, each assigned a specific weight:
1. Euro (EUR) - 57.6%
2. Japanese Yen (JPY) - 13.6%
3. British Pound (GBP) - 11.9%
4. Canadian Dollar (CAD) - 9.1%
5. Swedish Krona (SEK) - 4.2%
6. Swiss Franc (CHF) - 3.6%
Why DXY Matters
DXY is a crucial indicator for several reasons:
1. Global Benchmark: DXY is widely considered the primary indicator for measuring the value of the U.S. dollar globally. It serves as a benchmark for comparing the dollar's strength or weakness against other major currencies.
2. Currency Movements: Traders and investors use DXY to gauge the dollar's performance and predict potential currency movements. A rising DXY indicates a stronger dollar, while a falling index suggests a weaker dollar.
3. Influence on Markets: Changes in DXY can have a significant impact on various markets, including forex, commodities, and equities. For instance, a strengthening dollar can lead to lower commodity prices, affecting commodity-dependent economies.
4. Policy Implications: Central banks and governments closely monitor DXY to inform their monetary and fiscal policies. A rising DXY may influence a central bank to consider policies to counteract a strong dollar's effects on exports.
DXY's Impact on Forex
DXY, the Dollar Index, is a vital tool in the financial world, providing insights into the relative strength of the U.S. dollar. Its composition of major world currencies and its widespread use make it a key indicator for traders, investors, and policymakers alike. By understanding DXY's significance and monitoring its movements, you can make more informed financial decisions and navigate the complexities of the global markets. 💵📊
What do you want to learn in the next post?
Candlestick Patterns Unveiled: Your Guide to 6 Key Signals🕯📈📉
Candlestick patterns are a trader's secret language, revealing potential market movements and trends. Among the multitude of candlestick formations, six key patterns stand out for their significance in technical analysis. In this comprehensive guide, we'll explore these patterns, providing real-world examples to help you decipher their bullish and bearish implications. With this knowledge, you'll be better equipped to make informed trading decisions in the dynamic world of finance.
Exploring 6 Key Candlestick Patterns
Candlestick Pattern 1: Bullish Engulfing 🐂🕯
The Bullish Engulfing pattern is a potent bullish signal that appears after a downtrend. It involves a small bearish candle followed by a larger bullish candle that completely engulfs the previous one.
Candlestick Pattern 2: Bearish Engulfing 🐻🕯
The Bearish Engulfing pattern is its bearish counterpart, signaling a potential reversal at the end of an uptrend. It consists of a small bullish candle followed by a larger bearish candle that engulfs the previous one.
Candlestick Pattern 3: Bull Flag 🐂🚩
The Bull Flag is a continuation pattern that often appears in uptrends. It consists of a sharp upward price movement (flagpole) followed by a period of consolidation (flag).
Candlestick Pattern 4: Bear Flag 🐻🚩
The Bear Flag is the bearish counterpart of the Bull Flag. It appears in downtrends and consists of a sharp downward price movement (flagpole) followed by consolidation (flag).
Candlestick Pattern 5: Morning Star 🌄🕯
The Morning Star is a bullish reversal pattern that appears after a downtrend. It comprises three candles: a large bearish candle, a small indecisive candle (often a Doji), and a large bullish candle.
Candlestick Pattern 6: Evening Star 🌇🕯
The Evening Star is the bearish counterpart of the Morning Star and signals a potential reversal at the end of an uptrend. It also consists of three candles: a large bullish candle, a small indecisive candle, and a large bearish candle.
These six key candlestick patterns are essential tools in a trader's arsenal, providing insights into potential reversals and continuations. However, remember that successful trading requires considering other factors like trend analysis, volume, and market context. By mastering these patterns and applying them judiciously, you can enhance your trading skills and make more informed decisions in the dynamic world of finance. 🕯📈📉
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BluetonaFX - USDJPY Price Channel Breakout SHORT IdeaHi Traders!
USDJPY looks to have exhausted near the psychological 150.00 level, and there is a possibility of a large pullback to the long-term bullish trend we have had over the past few months.
Price Action 📊
There has been a momentum break below the ascending price channel and the 20 EMA.
We are looking for further momentum to take the market further below.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
Weaker than expected USD GDP figures have slowed down the US dollar's strong momentum.
Support 📉
148.460: PREVIOUS SWING HIGH
Resistance 📈
149.506: DAILY HIGH
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
Gold for the next week 18-Sep-2023 Till Closed ManuallyI initially planned to share this on Sunday evening, but given that I'm including my personal trading strategy, I've decided to release it on Saturday instead. This way, someone might find value in my approach and have ample time to understand and implement it in their trading for the upcoming week
Bullish Scenario
Institutional Bias: If institutions remain aggressively bullish on Monday, expect minimal retracement to demand zones.
Daily Supply Zone: A retracement to the demand zone may occur to trap sellers before resuming the bullish trend.
Bull Run Extension: The market may stall within the daily supply zone before continuing its upward trajectory.
Break Above 1953: A break above this level could signal a long-term bullish run, potentially setting new lifetime highs.
Bearish Scenario
Institutional Shift: If institutions shift from buying to selling, they may push the market to the daily supply zone to trap buyers before a sharp decline.
Liquidity Trap: The market may oscillate between supply and demand zones to generate liquidity before crashing.
Short-Term Outlook: Given Friday's bullish narrative, a bearish run seems less likely in the immediate term.
High Time Frame (HTF) Bias: The market could revert to a bearish trend as the HTF bias remains bearish.
My personal Trading Strategy for Gold
Preparation: Be at your trading station one hour before the London Open.
Daily Time Frame (TF): Mark trendlines to determine overall market bias.
4hr TF: Identify any break of structures.
1hr TF: Mark unmitigated supply and demand zones.
15min TF: Wait for the price to reach your marked zones or Points of Interest (POI).
Entry Criteria: Look for a clean Break of Structure (BOS) on a lower time frame (preferably 5 minutes).
Momentum and Volume: Ensure the BOS has sufficient momentum and volume.
Entry Point: Enter after the BOS candle closes.
Stop Loss (SL): Use a fixed pip SL or place it above the previous swing high.
Take Profit (TP): Subjective to your trading style.
Risk Management: Limit SL to 1% of your equity.
Pip and Lot Calculation: Understand pip values for different trading instruments.
Profit Targets: Maintain realistic daily, weekly, and monthly targets.
Weekly Target: Aim for a 5% increase in equity.
Daily Target: Once reached, reduce your market exposure.
Loss Management: If a trade goes south, take a step back and analyze.
Important Notes
These are personal insights and subject to market conditions.
Market moves may take from one day to several weeks to materialize.
Global economic uncertainty could increase gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Personal Insights
Emotional detachment and mechanical trading have improved my performance.
Always align your trades with the market's overall direction.
Counter-trend strategies are generally riskier unless supported by divergences.
BluetonaFX - GBPAUD Triangle Break SHORT IdeaHi Traders!
There is a triangle formation on GBPAUD, and we have possibility of a breakout to the downside.
Price Action 📊
The market has had lower highs and lower lows since breaking below the 20 EMA, creating a symmetrical triangle pattern on the chart.
We are looking for further bearish momentum to break and close the trendline support line.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
The market's outlook on GBP is currently negative due to weak economic data recently released. The outlook on the GBP looks very negative at the moment, and the demand for the currency is very low.
Support 📉
1.90556: WEEKLY LOW
Resistance 📈
1.92405: PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGH
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders!
Forex Weekly Recap for 18–22 September, 2023:
Fundamentals
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the Meeting Minutes of its September meeting. Key notes were:
They considered raising rates by 25 basis points or holding rates at the September meeting.
The economy still appears to be on a narrow path by which inflation returns to target and employment grows.
They are concerned about productivity growth not picking up as anticipated and service inflation remaining an issue.
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) Villeroy hinted that the ECB has currently finished hiking; other key mentions from him were:
The ECB will maintain interest rates at 4% for a sufficiently long time.
The current ECB rates are at a good level; it is better to be patient now.
Once inflation is back to around 2%, rates can start to fall again.
The Bank of Canada released the minutes of its September meeting. Key notes were:
The lack of improvement in underlying inflation is a major worry.
They anticipate that rising oil and gasoline prices will push inflation up in the coming months.
The balance between economic supply and demand will play a pivotal role in determining future core and total inflation.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.50%, as expected. At the following press conference, Fed Chair Powell spoke, and key notes from him were:
Growth in real GDP has come in above expectations.
Labour demand still exceeds supply.
Expects labour market rebalancing to continue, easing upward pressure on inflation.
Inflation remains well above their long-term goal of 2%.
Getting inflation down to the 2% target still has a long way to go.
The Fed is prepared to raise rates further if appropriate.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, which came as a surprise as the market expected a 25 basis point hike to 2%.
The Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, which also came as a surprise as the market expected a 25 basis point hike to 5.50%. The bank vote also came as a surprise, as the bank vote was 4-5 vs. 8-1 expected (Bailey, Broadbent, Dhingra, Pill, and Ramsden voted to hold).
Key Data
New Zealand Services PMI came in worse at 47.1 vs. 48.0 prior.
The US Housing Starts data came in worse, while Building Permits came in better.
Housing Starts came in worse at 1.238M vs. 1.440M expected and 1.447M prior (revised from 1.452M).
Building permits came in better at 1.543M vs 1.443M expected and 1.442M prior.
The UK CPI came in worse across the board:
CPI Y/Y came in worse at 6.7% vs. 7.0% expected and 6.8% prior.
CPI M/M came in worse at 0.3% vs. 0.7% expected and -0.4% prior.
Core CPI Y/Y came in worse at 6.2% vs. 6.8% expected and 6.9% prior.
Core CPI M/M came in worse at 0.1% vs. 0.6% expected and 0.3% prior.
The New Zealand Q2 GDP came in better across the board:
GDP Q2 Y/Y came in better at 1.8% vs. 1.2% expected and 2.2% prior.
GDP Q2 Q/Q came in better at 0.9% vs. 0.5% expected and 0% prior (revised from 0.1%).
The US jobless claims came in better across the board:
Initial claims came in better at 201K vs. 225K expected and 221K prior (revised from 220K).
Continuing claims came in better at 1662K vs. 1695K expected and 1683K prior (revised from 1688K).
The Australian Manufacturing PMI came in worse; however, the Services PMI came in better.
Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 48.2 vs. 49.6 prior.
Services PMI came in better at 50.5 vs. 47.8 prior.
The Japanese CPI came in mixed across the board:
Japan CPI Y/Y came in worse at 3.2% vs. 3.3% prior.
Japan Core CPI Y/Y came in better at 3.1% vs. 3.0% expected and 3.1% prior.
The UK August retail sales came in worse across the board:
Retail sales Y/Y came in worse at -1.4% vs. -1.2% expected and -3.1% prior (revised from -3.2%).
Retail Sales M/M came in worse at 0.4% vs. 0.5% and -1.1% prior (revised from -1.2%).
German PMIs came in better across the board:
Manufacturing PMI came in better at 39.8 vs. 39.5 expected and 39.1 prior.
Services PMI came in better at 49.8 vs. 47.2 expected and 47.3 prior.
The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in mixed across the board:
Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 43.4 vs. 44.0 expected and 43.5 prior.
Services PMI came in better at 48.4 vs. 47.7 expected and 47.9 prior.
The UK Services PMI came in mixed across the board:
Manufacturing PMI came in better at 44.2 vs. 43.0 expected and 43.0 prior.
Services PMI came in worse at 47.2 vs. 49.2 expected and 49.5 prior.
Technicals
A mixed week for the forex majors, a bad week for GBP, especially with another week of worse-than-expected data leading to more weakening for the currency.
AUDUSD 1W Chart
AUDUSD held strong above the support level at the yearlow low and is trading comfortably above the 0.64000 area. The market briefly went above the 0.65000 area, which has not been seen since the end of August.
USDJPY 1W Chart
USDJPY is quickly approaching 150. The market is now trading just above the 148 level. The 150-level line lines up perfectly with the top of the ascending channel.
EURUSD 1W Chart
EURUSD is still continuing to head downwards after the support break of the rising wedge. A doji candle has formed on the 1W, which signals indecision, so we must be wary of this.
GBPUSD 1W Chart
GBPUSD is continuing its bearish momentum after the wedge support break. The next support area is around the 1.22000 level.
The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be:
Monday: German IFO.
Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes, Australia Monthly CPI, US Durable Goods Orders
Thursday: Australia Retail Sales, US Q2 Final GDP, US Jobless Claims
Friday: Japan Tokyo CPI, Japan Unemployment Rate, Japan Retail Sales, UK Q2 Final GDP, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP, US Core PCE
We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week.
Best of luck for the upcoming trading week. Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
✅ Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 19, 2023Key events:
Eurozone - CPI (YoY) (Aug)
USA - Building Permits (Aug)
On Monday, the major stock market indices on Wall Street displayed fluctuating movements, with particular attention on energy stocks closely following the surging prices of crude oil. Investors were also eagerly awaiting the upcoming interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve.
Within the sectors of the S&P 500, the energy sector emerged as the top performer, posting a gain of 1.1%. This gain reflected the strengthening of crude oil prices, which approached the significant threshold of $95 per barrel due to ongoing supply constraints.
The continued upward trajectory in crude oil prices has raised concerns about the persistence of inflationary pressures, despite a series of recent economic data releases surpassing expectations. While these positive economic indicators have eased concerns of an imminent recession, they have not triggered fears of an interest rate hike in September.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a marginal gain of 0.02%, equivalent to an increase of 6 points, while the Nasdaq remained relatively stable with a slight 0.01% uptick. The S&P 500 concluded the day with a modest gain of 0.1%.
NASDAQ index daily chart
SPX index daily chart
DJI index daily chart
Apple, trading under the ticker symbol AAPL on the NASDAQ, experienced a notable uptick in its stock price, surging by more than 1%. This increase has garnered optimism from certain sectors of Wall Street, particularly with regards to the heightened demand anticipated for Apple's recently unveiled iPhone 15. The optimism is particularly pronounced for the premium iPhone Pro and Pro Max variants, which is a notable departure from the initial reception of the iPhone 14.
Apple stock daily chart
However, it's important to note that not all perspectives on Wall Street are as optimistic about the iPhone 15's debut. Barclays, for example, pointed out that initial pre-order data suggested a potentially challenging cycle for the iPhone 15 in China. In this market, it seems that demand is tilting towards the more affordable variant of the iPhone 15.
Shifting our focus to the financial markets, the GBP/USD pair has once again concluded a trading session below the critical 200-day moving average (SMA 200). What's particularly noteworthy is that this breach occurred not only during today's trading session but also in the previous week.
GBP/USD + SMA 200 daily chart
The upcoming Bank of England (BOE) decision slated for Thursday adds an element of intrigue to the financial landscape. While market expectations include a 25-basis-point rate hike and an expansion of quantitative tightening measures by the BOE, there is also the potential for dovish commentary from the central bank. Such remarks could exert additional downward pressure on the GBP.
In the realm of precious metals, gold prices have experienced a three-day uptrend, surging to $1,930.00 per Troy ounce as of Monday. This rally appears to be fueled by investors seeking a safe haven amid uncertainties surrounding significant events scheduled for later this week.
XAU/USD daily chart
Investors are currently honing their attention on the imminent decision from the US Federal Reserve, an event widely anticipated to result in the maintenance of the interest rate at the current 5.5% per annum. What will likely be of primary interest during this event is the Fed's evaluation of the economy and inflation, as this will provide crucial insights into the central bank's potential future actions.
The allure of gold has been further enhanced by the abrupt depreciation of the yuan exchange rate, rendering the precious metal even more appealing as a safe-haven asset.
In the currency market, the dollar index is presently holding its ground, maintaining a position just below a 6-month high as of Monday.
US Dollar Currency Index daily chart
Taking a step back to examine the broader perspective, recent short-term movements have been characterized by a recurring sideways pattern for the third consecutive week. This period of sideways trading has seen bullish momentum repeatedly encountering significant resistance.
The overall trajectory of the dollar hinges significantly on the actions of the Federal Reserve. Should the Fed opt to follow in the footsteps of the European Central Bank and announce the conclusion of its tightening cycle, possibly hinting at the potential for rate cuts beginning in mid-2024, it could result in a weakening of the dollar.
On the flip side, one should not dismiss the prospect of a hawkish stance from the Fed. Recent data indicates that the US economy remains robust, boasting a tight labor market. While inflation remains elevated, there are signs of it moving on a downward trajectory. In this scenario, it becomes plausible that the Fed might pursue one more interest rate hike before the year's end, opting to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period until inflation retraces to its 2% target. In such a scenario, the greenback would likely reap the benefits of a stronger position.
Shifting our attention to the Australian dollar, it continues to display a lackluster performance as the new trading week kicks off. During Monday's European session, AUD/USD was trading at 0.6438, indicating a modest 0.11% increase.
AUD/USD daily chart
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has recently published the minutes from its most recent meeting. During this meeting, the RBA chose to maintain the status quo for the third consecutive month, leaving the official cash rate at 4.10%. This decision occurred in the final meeting led by former Governor Philip Lowe, who acknowledged that inflation had "reached its peak" but was still "uncomfortably high and is likely to remain so for an extended period." This statement left room for potential future rate hikes. However, prevailing market sentiment appears to lean towards a more dovish outlook, with expectations that the RBA may consider lowering rates at some point in 2024. Investors will be carefully analyzing the minutes for any indications or insights into the RBA's prospective rate decisions.
The Keys to Success Every Forex Trader Should Master 🕵️♂️📊💡
In the fast-paced world of forex trading, understanding price action is akin to possessing a treasure map. Price action analysis is the art of deciphering market movements based on price movements alone, without relying on indicators or oscillators. In this comprehensive article, we'll reveal the essential price action secrets that every forex trader should know. We'll explore real-world examples and equip you with the knowledge needed to navigate this thrilling terrain.
The Secrets of Price Action
1. Candlestick Patterns: Candlestick patterns are powerful tools in price action analysis. They reveal market sentiment and potential trend reversals.
2. Support and Resistance: Identifying key support and resistance levels on a price chart can provide insights into potential price reversals or breakouts.
3. Trendlines: Drawing trendlines allows traders to visualize price trends and anticipate potential entry and exit points.
Real-World Examples
Example 1: EUR/USD - Bullish Reversal:
Example 2: GBP/JPY - Breakout:
Unlocking the secrets of price action analysis is the key to success for every forex trader. By mastering candlestick patterns, understanding support and resistance levels, and utilizing trendlines, you can decipher market movements and make informed trading decisions. Armed with these price action secrets, you're better equipped to navigate the ever-changing landscape of forex trading and seize profitable opportunities. 🕵️♂️📊💡
Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
Technical Trend Analysis on DLFBased on my analysis of the DLF chart, I have identified some interesting price action patterns and key levels to keep an eye on. Here are the key points:
1. As on Friday it gives some sort of weekly breakout
2. come to daily time Friday , it seems to give good bullish move from here.
Considering the price action and the identified patterns, here's a potential trading strategy to consider:
Breakout patterns are generally reliable if it took many attempt to cross but could not make it in weekly tf, any how if this could happen , it is expected to move further in near future.
Please note that this analysis is purely based on price action observations and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider risk management strategies before making any trading decisions.
🙏 Disclaimer:
Balancing Emotions, Market Conditions, and Trading Setup 🛠📈
Achieving success in the world of trading is akin to crafting a masterpiece. To create the perfect trade, traders must harmonize three crucial elements: emotions, market conditions, and trading setups. In this in-depth article, we'll explore how these elements intersect and provide real-world examples to illustrate their significance. By mastering this trinity, you'll be better equipped to navigate the complex world of trading.
The Three Pillars of a Perfect Trade
1. Emotions: Emotions are an integral part of trading. Fear, greed, and impatience can cloud judgment and lead to irrational decisions. Achieving emotional balance is vital. 🧘♀️
2. Market Conditions: Market conditions encompass factors such as volatility, trends, and economic events. Traders must adapt their strategies to prevailing conditions for success.
3. Trading Setup: The trading setup comprises technical and fundamental analysis, entry and exit points, and risk management. A well-defined setup is the foundation of a successful trade. 📈
Examples of the Perfect Trade
Example 1: Forex - EUR/USD:
Imagine you're trading EUR/USD and have identified a potential uptrend based on technical analysis. However, you notice that upcoming economic data releases could significantly impact the market. To craft the perfect trade, you:
Example 2: Stock Trading - Tech Company Shares:
You're trading shares of a tech company known for its earnings volatility. The company announces better-than-expected earnings, causing the stock price to surge. To seize the opportunity, you:
Crafting the perfect trade involves a delicate balancing act between emotions, market conditions, and trading setups. By honing your emotional intelligence, adapting to changing market dynamics, and meticulously planning your trading strategy, you can inch closer to the elusive goal of the perfect trade. Remember, it's a journey of continuous improvement, where each trade contributes to your expertise. 🛠📈🧘♀️
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Love you, my dear followers!👩💻🌸
Understanding Price Gaps and Their Significance 💱🌉📉
In the dynamic world of forex trading, price gaps, often referred to simply as "gaps," are a phenomenon that can significantly impact market analysis and trading decisions. Understanding what gaps are, how they occur, and their implications is crucial for any forex trader. In this comprehensive article, we'll explore the concept of gaps in forex, provide real-world examples, and shed light on their relevance in your trading journey.
Unveiling Price Gaps
A gap in forex refers to a sudden, substantial difference between the closing price of one candlestick and the opening price of the next. These gaps typically occur in the forex market during times when trading is closed for the weekend, such as between Friday's closing and Sunday's opening, or due to significant economic events, news releases, or geopolitical developments.
Types of Price Gaps
1. Common Gap (Area Gap):
This type of gap is characterized by a moderate price difference and often gets filled relatively quickly. Common gaps are generally considered less significant for trading analysis.
2. Breakaway Gap:
Breakaway gaps signal a shift in market sentiment and often occur at the start of a new trend. They tend to have larger price differences and are of particular interest to technical analysts.
3. Exhaustion Gap:
Exhaustion gaps occur near the end of a trend and indicate waning momentum. They are often followed by a reversal in price direction.
The Significance of Gaps
1. Support and Resistance: Gaps can act as support or resistance levels. Traders often observe whether a gap gets filled (prices return to the pre-gap level) or remains open, as it can provide insights into future price movements.
2. Market Sentiment: Different types of gaps reflect varying levels of market sentiment. Breakaway gaps signal strong conviction, while exhaustion gaps suggest potential reversals.
3. Trading Strategy: Traders may incorporate gap analysis into their strategies, such as trading breakouts or reversals based on gap patterns.
Gaps in forex trading are intriguing phenomena that provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price movements. By understanding the types of gaps and their implications, traders can make more informed decisions and better navigate the complexities of the forex market. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting, bridging the knowledge gap about gaps can be a game-changer in your trading journey. 📊🌄🚀
What do you want to learn in the next post?