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GBP/JPY NFP 03- 04/02/2023 Possible drop too 155.500 to see if the market will break or pull, considering there is nfp new tonight expecting the drop to continute to 149.000 to wick that demand zone and continue bullish.... banks will take out buy orders at 155.500 stop hunt the orders/ I personally think tonight will have a lot of manipulations for people to buy and get stopped out till NFP news comes out with a finally bearish wick to 149.000 as done previously before the bullish movement let me know what you think .. good luck tonight lets get it $$$$
by BullseyeForex
4
Beware of the Market at these levels (SPY SPX) I haven't posted in a while because since I entered a position in my SPX index fund, there hasn't been much to say. Until now. I'm posting this chart to show my updated levels & chart analysis. I'm NOT adding to this position until we retest the (diagonal) white line, indicating the current trend that we are in. At which point, we will either hold the trend for a breakout & retest of the high, or fail to the previous support level (horizontal white line at $3511.80). My green & yellow lines drawn indicate the projected path that price will most likely take, as we retest this heavy selling area that we are now hitting. I'm short term (next 3-5 months) bearish/short. Long term (next 1-3 years) bullish/long, after another significant drop in price. Since this is my Indexed retirement play, I don't plan to take any profits, only add to the position on price drops. May daytrade short positions into the resistance for the next few months.
SP:SPXShort
by BillionaireTomBoi
GBPJPY: BUYFundamental Analysis Here are the key takeaways from BoE meeting: 1. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has increased the Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4%. 2. The vote was 7-2 in favor of the increase, with two members preferring to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.5%. 3. Global consumer price inflation remains high, but is expected to have peaked. 4. UK domestic inflationary pressures have been stronger than expected. 5. The MPC projects that CPI inflation will fall to around 4% by the end of the year. 6. The MPC will adjust Bank Rate as necessary to achieve the 2% inflation target sustainably. 7. The extent of domestic inflationary pressure will depend on the impact of the Bank Rate increases. What implication could this have on sterling(GBP)? Well, these are my thoughts: The increase in Bank Rate by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee could potentially have a positive impact on the GBP as a currency. A higher interest rate can increase the demand for a currency, as it makes it more attractive for investors to hold and deposit funds in that currency. Additionally, higher interest rates may also lead to reduced inflationary pressures, which can further boost the appeal of a currency. While it is true that higher interest rates can cause the value of a currency to appreciate, it can also make borrowing more expensive, which can impact consumer spending and lead to a slowdown in economic growth. This is where it gets tough, right? Disclaimer : This is not a financial advice. This is purely my opinion based on my knowledge of macro-economics. Technical Analysis Based on technical analysis of the GBPJPY currency pair, there are signs of upward price momentum. The price divergence observed on the M15, M30, and H1 timeframes suggests an over-extended market scenario, which could lead to a corrective move higher. A pristine internal supply zone, located between 159.358 and 158.655, has been created by recent whipsaw price action, providing further evidence that the market could move higher to liquidate this zone. As a result, I have established a near-term price target of this internal supply zone. If price successfully breaches this zone, I will maintain my position, considering the potential for further price appreciation. However, I'll continuously monitor the market, as additional factors and market developments could impact the performance of my position.
Long
by Samuel124
2
TSLA Re-Accumulation to Big DistributionTopping reversal candle on the 4 hr. I see Bullish and Bearish scenarios- * Yes Tesla can go to $180 first, it has to happen before Wednesday Bearish- pullback and double top , Rising Wedge or complete breakdown from here. Bullish-continuation on new support trend-line past $200… to confirm V bottom recovery (Tsla is one of few stocks that will be green while Markets go red) *** everything dependent on Markets to confirm Bull cycle or to fade the rally and begin the Final leg Down of Correction. My Thesis,( until price action delivers a different scenario)- I’m leaning Bearish, but with a possibility of higher high along with Bearish Divergence confirmation. Just to accumulate more retail liquidity before February selloff -Smart Money began buying in December- taking profits in February lines up with lower Tax on gains and portfolio rotation I believe economic data or FOMC will maintain hawkishness and rug-pull the markets next Wednesday. Macro Data: - NYSE advance decline is supporting weakness in markets -Retail & Smart money are completely divergent -Put/Call ratio beginning to favor Bears -Vix bullish divergence setup forming -DXY, 10yr & 2yr bond yields are all rising with markets -HYG Bonds are falling while markets advance -Retail influx & euphoria is at highest level since 2021 & 2022 August high (LARGE SELLOFF) - Feb & March seasonally are sell-off & Volatility spikes until April ***Everything is pointing to a Large pullback or “The Final” leg of Bearish Correction
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Black_Sheep1
9
Trust The Process. Reflect, Strategize, Execute Today marks the first day of February. I had a pretty interesting trading day yesterday. I was taking a few heavy positions and happened to end up on the profitable side of those positions. I realized very quickly that my perception of the market is flawed. My optimism or ideal performance for the market I choose is always based off a monthly time frame. Yet and still, when I take positions, it's with the monthly time Frame in mind. So, no matter what the market is currently doing I always try to follow the Monthly trend. I can no longer trust this belief. I was humbled. The profit I had produced from multiple trades were wiped out almost instantly. I realized I was going against the current trend and that price had not taken out market structure. Instead of doing a top down analysis from 12M, I think it's best if I start on the daily time frame. I also think it would be a good idea to use the path tool to draw out how price has been moving until my eyes can naturally adjust. Whatever the previous MSH (Major Swing High) is, make sure price CLOSES above it on at least a 1HR time frame and comes back to re-test that previous high before even thinking about buying. Otherwise, keep the continuation of the current trend. I am motivated by loss. I have $58 left in my account. With this new found understanding, I'll give my best to get those profits back. I won't revenge trade, but if, and only if I see the positions, I'M ALL IN. I should also realize that although taking big positions are exciting because you watch your money fluctuate very quickly, the excitement should be in the process. Questions I should be asking myself every time before I place a trade: - Am I on the right side of the trend? - How do I know it's the right side? - Is price currently near a major key level? - How is price reacting? - Has a trend line been broken? - Has price taken out market structure - Has price re-tested the previous high after creating a new high? - Entry & Exit? - Based upon the trend where would the best entry be? - Based upon previous support, where would the best exit be? - What time frame am I basing this information on? - Have I thought about every possible outcome? - What are the chances prices doesn't hit my take profit? - Have I accounted for each possibility (Up, Down, Sideways) I can feel my mind adjusting to what I need to believe instead of what I think. the market is a game, and the best way to be the best at any game is to keep playing. You'll lose over and over again until you become so frustrated that you're forced to try something completely different. Now most of us still don't fully get it when we make that change because implementing a new strategy is just one very small portion of it. Since fear controls most of our decisions, you can't be scared to keep starting over or making changes to a broken system. Falling in love with losing will ignite the fire to victory. The more you chase victory, the faster it runs away from you. Victory shouldn't be chased, it should be rewarded for strategy, discipline, and execution.
by racksquadshakey
BTC/USDTHead And Shoulders Chart Pattern The Head and Shoulders pattern is very easy to spot and can be a caution for traders especially when the pattern occurs at the top end of a rally or its bearish counterpart, the inverse head, and shoulders that occurs at the trough of a downtrend. In the chart above, you can see the basic structure and the setup of the head and shoulders pattern (bullish and bearish). The neckline support (or resistance) is the key as a breakout from this level indicates a shift in the trend. The most basic way to trade the head and shoulders pattern is to wait for the breakout from the neckline. Some traders prefer to wait for a retest back to the neckline while others simply buy or sell on the breakout. The target is set to a measured move, measured from the head (high or low) to the neckline (support or resistance) and projected from there on.
Short
by majidalisabir
2
BTC/USDTRectangle Pattern Up Trend The price is constrained by support and resistance levels in the Rectangle pattern. This means observing the pattern on a chart, and traders need to look for a price between the two horizontal lines. The Rectangle marks several highs and lows. These highs and lows indicate a period of consolidation. Also, there is indecision in the market where buyers and sellers are competing with one another. To identify the pattern, traders need to navigate it on either an uptrend or a downtrend. The price would then form several peaks and troughs. Finally, the breakout candle would confirm the direction of the trend.
Long
by majidalisabir
SPY Golden Cross formation! Its BULL TIME!!SP futures finally closing above the previous descending resistance line on the 1D chart. Combine this with the bullish indicator of the Golden Cross: 50 MA crossing the 200 MA 10 MA has already crossed the 200MA indicating at least, a short term momentum change. On the Wed - 25 Jan we also see a long bullish hammer, with a long wick down indicating huge buying pressure at the 4000 zone followed by a huge bullish candle touching the 4075s on 26 Jan. If bullish momentum continues, we can see a retest of key Resistances: 4170 & 4300
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Gold_D_Roger
Are we in a financial crisis?We are all asking ourselves the same question, are we in the next big financial crash or is the worst already over? To answer this question, let's look at the S&P 500 since the beginning. The S&P has only seen one really big/long correction in its history and that was triggered by the Great Recession in the 1930s and the following Second World War. Since then, the S&P 500 has only seen one strong uptrend. If we take a closer look at this uptrend since WWII, we can see very clearly the subordinate waves 12345. 1. impulse wave: recovery after WWII and start of globalisation. 2. correction wave: 1970 recession and oil crisis 3. impulse wave: digitalisation and increased globalisation (EU, China, etc.) 4. Correction wave: dot.com bubble and 2008 financial crisis 5. impulse wave: digitalisation and automation of value chains The two correction waves were each triggered by major negative economic events. The individual phases are shown in time in the chart below. A certain temporal correlation can be seen. The upward trends lasted approx. 8700 to 9100 days and the downward trends approx. 3300 days. Current situation Currently we are in a strong uptrend that has lasted since 2008 and purely in terms of time has lasted only half the time than the two previous uptrends. But the economic situation is worse than in 2008 and worse than in the 1970s. Economic situation - Extremely high energy costs and production costs weigh on businesses and households - Interest rate hikes put additional strain on the economy - The higher interest rates are to remain for the time being in the medium term - Higher costs mean lower profits - Lower profits and higher capital costs mean less investments - Unstable housing market in the USA, Europe and China - Industry and trade under massive pressure - Stock market still largely overvalued - China - Taiwan conflict - Ukraine - Russia conflict - Unstable society - Etc. All these individual events are having a negative impact on the global economy and together form a perfect foundation for a deeper recession. Many negative effects will only become apparent in the coming months, especially in the companies' key figures. In previous crises, even minor problems have led to crashes. Therefore, we are preparing for a falling/stagnating economy in the coming months, even years, which will also have a corresponding impact on the financial markets. In the current economic situation, to assume that the correction is now over and that we are now testing one high after another again can be very dangerous. We do not assume that the next few months will only be downward. Every overriding downward trend also has its (major) counter-corrections to the upside. Therefore, we may also experience months of euphoria and months of stagnation. Moreover, we do not expect such a strong and prolonged correction as in the 1930s, as sentiment was much worse then than now. The correction course shown in the chart is only symbolic of a correction. Pessimism - Realism We do not represent pessimism here, we represent realism. We want to encourage you to think about this realistically. In the current crisis landscape we are in, can you imagine that the correction is now over and we will test one high after the other and see an all-time high again in a few months? Especially considering the previous crises, what triggered them and how long they lasted. We no longer ask ourselves whether the crisis will come, but only how long it will last and how it will proceed in order to use the movements profitably. Price target of the correction? The previous corrections (1970s) & (2000 + 2008) were each able to form a bottom between the 0.5 and 0.618 FIB level and start the next uptrend from there. Projecting this onto the current correction, the price target of the correction would be around $2,500, which can also be confirmed very well on the chart with resistances, trendlines and many other indicators. However, this is still very difficult to judge in the current situation, as it depends on an enormous number of factors, which are not yet meaningful enough, after all, we are only at the beginning of the correction. We hope that this article was helpful for you and that you may now look at the current situation from a different perspective.
SP:SPX
by Consyder
4
impact of two important following news on DXYTwo important factors that been driving Dollar prices in last several month as we all know is Federal Funds Rate and Inflation data like CPI. In this week we have both of them coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, now we want to see how it can affect the market. Price usually tend to be at important resistive or supportive areas at the time of important news hit the market and as we can see now price is at supporting area and at the Daily low which probably will remain here until the news hit the market so we can expect of low volatility movement on USD and other major crosses, But what will happen when the news releases? As we know CPI balance is curving to downside and shows that inflation is cooling down and as we see the prediction of tomorrow CPI news we can see that the market expect this trend to continue. Now here is the tricky part, if CPI data put out like prediction or lower than the prediction this means that fed has the inflation under control which makes trader to believe that federal reserve would not need to raise prices very aggressively like before and as a result we may see a risk on environment in the market which can lead Dollar prices to come lower, but on the other hand SPX, TLT, EUR,JPY and also commodity currencies like AUD,NZD to take benefit from the situation. But if CPI data comes out higher than expectation then we can argue that federal reserve do not have inflation under control so it needs to continue hiking prices like before and this situation may lead to higher prices for Dollar and lower prices for all the other assets that we covered above. Also if the second scenario take place tomorrow we can expect USYIELD to continue going higher which have negative effect on US treasury bond and very bad effect on SPX index. Put CPI analysis apart the other important news that can shake prices real hard is federal reserve which going to hit the market on Wednesday. On that time we can see that what exactly is in the mind of federal reserve and how they are going to impact the economy. In overall, if they raise rate same or below the expectation its going to be very good for risky assets since it shows that we are getting close to end of rate hiking cycle but if federal reserve going for raising rate higher than expectation then it will have a very good impact on Dollar but bad impact on risky assets.
TVC:DXYEducation
by mohemati
We're at the 200 day. Now What?Good morning. Last week we finished the week in the green even with Powell speaking on Wednesday. And now, we are hanging out at the 200 day. So.... where do we go from here? The charts are telling me to be bullish, but we should remain cautious at this level. The overall big picture makes you sit back and think. We visited the trend line from this years high back in late March and mid August. Both times, we headed lower shortly after. Is this time different? Since October we've had bullish price action and everything is saying to be bullish. But.....the overall long term pattern should not go unrecognized. We're still in a Bear Market. I wouldn't be surprised if we grind a little bit higher this week but overall, just base here until next week. CPI is due out on the 13th and that's when we could see some action. I have my eyes set on 3600 by the end of the year. Let's see what happens. Either way, be patient, stay disciplined, control your emotions and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
S&P 500 Big Picture - Bearish ScenarioMany investors are already assuming a breakout from the upper trend line and thus a continuation of the uptrend. The economic sentiment is still bearish, many companies now have to bear the high capital and energy costs and many companies are still highly overvalued. Therefore, today we would like to introduce you to a bearish scenario that is likely to occur, the Double ZigZag. Structure of a Double ZigZag - Superior: (W) - (X) - (Y) - Subordinate: (ABC) - (ABC) - (ABC) - Subwaves: (12345 - ABC - 12345) - (ABC) - (12345 - ABC - 12345) Current situation If this scenario is correct, we would be in the last sub-wave ABC and now see the last downward movement as sub-wave 12345. This would complete the last subordinate (ABC) wave. This scenario would be confirmed if in the next few days/weeks the SPX initiates a trend reversal to the downside. We already see a weaker SPX struggling to pump above the yellow highlighted resistance. Even if we could make it above this, it would have to be retested first and thus hold above resistance. We now expect the SPX to either make another small breakout to the upside before correcting back down, or for the SPX to correct right away. Strongly changing market The market is very difficult to assess at the moment. Many economic news are affecting the markets very strongly, new political and economic changes are coming at a record pace and most investors are still afraid to lose money. Thus, this Double ZigZag scenario is one of several possible scenarios. We will post a bullish scenario in the next few days.
SP:SPXShort
by Consyder