DOA trading Strategy - SPY#SPY - For my long term people!
I know a lot of yall are asking me about my personal long term positions.
When I did my last long term projection of SPY back in March 2022
I said that SPY will hit $390 before June
We hit $383 May 2022 then bounced hard ✅
I've been out of my long term since March 2022 most of you probably remember that I've been shorting the market since end of March 2022 when we caught the 2nd drop from double top back in March.
I'm getting ready to enter on my long term if we hold at $360-$365 area
From what I'm seeing now, we are currently getting ready for a 3rd impulsive wave, and just finishing the corrective wave.
We should hit $360-365 before end of September
Then if we hold, I'm going shopping for long term!
Marketanalysis
AKRO/USDTin the previous educational post, I posted about Rising Wedge patterns and in this post, I have explained Falling Wedge Patterns. ( Falling Wedge is the opposite of Rising Wedge pattern; for every chart pattern there are opposite patterns excluding some.)
Falling Wedges are Bullish Patterns and it generates a bullish signal, Falling wedge patterns forms with Lower highs and lower lows.
The Falling Wedge pattern forms in two shapes same as the Rising Wedge; If the Falling wedge pattern forms in an uptrend it will make a continuation and if the Falling wedge pattern forms in a downtrend it will make a reversal.
The Lower highs and the lower lows along make a trend resistance and trend support. When a breakout occurs upside, the price breaks the trend resistance line.
In a Falling wedge, a breakout occurs upside 60 to 70% of the time.
To confirm a true breakout, we can take the help of Volume and other indicators. A true breakout will have a more significant volume than usual.
Terra FalloutArguably the number one saying to always avoid uttering in investing is “This time is different”. Usually, it is related to overly optimistic bullish expectations of future market highs due to global adoption finally taking place. Ironically, as this cycle continues it is proving to be different…
In all prior market cycles, bitcoin never rested or went below the previous all-time high during following bear markets. Last weekend, however, we saw bitcoin cascade through the previous all-time high via a savage 6% decline within a 5-minute candle – reaching a low of approximately $17,600. A potential catalyst for the sudden drop was significant outflows from bitcoin funds on Friday 17th June, with the Canadian Purpose Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) experiencing its investors redeem approximately 24,500 bitcoin or 51% of its holdings. The majority of ETF investors are institutions, with the inflows and outflows from these funds giving a good gauge of the institutional sentiment around bitcoin and risk assets in general.
The drop was also contributed to by the developing contagion from the Terra debacle. The demise of Terra has continued to claim victims who just a few months ago were renowned as being market leaders in their fields. Most notably this includes Celcius and Three Arrows Capital (3AC). These two previously regarded behemoths have come under heavy fire from the declining market prices. The depressed prices have further impacted their low liquidity and highly leveraged balance sheets. Celsius halted all $8 billion worth of deposits from being withdrawn from their platform and 3AC was allegedly liquidated by FTX, Deribit and Bitmex due to them failing to provide additional capital for their poorly performing leveraged positions. Voyager, a crypto exchange, was also affected by 3AC’s demise with them still being owed 15,250 bitcoin and $350 million by the fund. News of this caused Voyager’s stock to cascade 40% lower on Wednesday accompanied by their token depreciating by 25%.
However, as one giant falls another grows. Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) has become somewhat of a liquidity-providing guardian angel for the crypto industry, with loans of $250 million to BlockFi, a centralised lending platform, and 15,000 bitcoin to Voyager via FTX and Alameda Research. Both of these entities SBF founded. FTX US has also utilised the depreciating market prices as an opportunity to sweeten their product offering through the acquisition of Embed Financial, an equities clearing firm that will provide custody and execution for FTX US’s newly launched feature to trade stocks – showcasing their eagerness to expand into alternative markets outside of crypto.
Looking at the technical side, bitcoin appears to have found a range to consolidate within for the meantime, with support on the previous all-time high of approximately $19,800 and resistance around $21,300. Breaking out of the range, and making significant progress, may prove to be a challenge for bulls with the 200-week moving average looming overhead at around $23,300.
The question on all traders’ minds is how long will this range hold and if $17,600 will be our local bottom for the foreseeable future? With the Federal Reserve’s Chairman Powell reiterating their hawkish stance and view for the increasing crypto regulation at Wednesday’s Senate Banking Committee hearing, it sounds like the potential relief we have seen over the past week should not be taken for granted. Additionally, further developments in the Terra fallout may be discovered further along the currently illiquid crypto path. This dark cloud will most likely keep all market participants with their tap-dancing shoes on and treading lightly as we further navigate these apocalyptic times.
future of BTC ( Is it possible to see zero? yes but...) I want to say that bitcoin may be zero, but let's use our previous data to see what is going to happen to bitcoin?
We have to admit that we are in a downtrend that I think has come a long way but has not yet reached the end of the road and given the price history we can expect it to bother the holders again and it is normal when the BTC pair is The US dollar.
In smaller timeframes, especially weekly with the loss of the moving average of 200, I, like many of you, am worried about the future of bitcoin, so I came to higher timeframes to see history in a bigger sight and the important prices (price ranges) that We have to be better able to monitor it.
I do not give an opinion against the downward trend and I do not have a recommendation to buy yet, but within the limits specified in the chart, you can make your purchase with your own analysis, or if you have bitcoins, consider capital management in those areas.
This cycle check is used only for estimation and has no signal for buying and selling. By starting to receive the signal in lower timeframes, you can decide to buy or sell in the specified ranges.
Nifty hovering around critical support of 15050.Holding 15050 will be very critical for Nifty 50 in order to not fall totally into the bear grip. Not that Nifty isn't in bear grip already but falling below 15050 will be indication of real weakness which can take Nifty searching for supports which might be available only near 200 weeks EMA or there about.
Critical Support Zone for Nifty or (Reversal zone 1) can be 15180 and 15050. Closing below 15050 would mean that critical support has been broken.
Further Strong supports thereafter will be: 14692(Reversal Zone 2), 14356, 13945 and finally 200 Weeks EMA at 13767. (Reversal Zone 3).
Once there is a strong reversal the resistances will be: 15949, 16529, 16912 and finally 17308.
Whenever the next bull-run starts the new top will be around 20203. (Medium to long term out-look is still very positive).
Cardano focus after support bounceWell, TradingView community, what an insane few days we have seen on the crypto markets. Some of the falls have just about been doomsday stuff. ETH, for instance, broke below 1100 today, and Bitcoin briefly moved below 21K. Solana's low retraced the entire 2020/21 run before buyers jumped back in today.
So let's move to today's focus Cardano. The late May and early June price looked good, moving back above .66 before the latest bear raids kicked off. Five straight sessions saw 24% taken off the price and today looked no different as prices raced a further 9% lower.
Buyers emerged into today's Asian session and, at this stage, have pulled 17% back since today’s low. This caught our attention from where the turnaround occurred, and it lined up very nicely with .4450 support. This could be a good sign as price continues to sit in its range and is not in a solid downtrend like many other top 10 coins.
If buyers can hold out today and maintain a close above support, this could be good signs that buyers are trying to regain control. A close below support, and we will be back on the bear front.
If buyers can hold support and a decent push higher, we will look for broader buying to show overall demand, and we will then look to see if buyers can break the top of the range to start suggesting that a new move higher could be developing.
Good Trading
AMZN - Update#AMZN - Amazon held above 102 this morning before trying to bottom. 60m chart on most major tickers here forming a bear flag more or less. Once we break out we can see more direction. I markets close near bottom AMZN should break sub 100 tomorrow.
#MarketAnalysis #Marketupdate #watchlist
#SPX - Market Update#SPX - Big drop on futures to openup the week, Opened below our 3817 level and never could reclaim it. We hit our 3790 and 3756 Targets below. Possible to see a pull back bounce here before seeing more downside. If we close near the lows it is very possible to see 3700 before FOMC on Wednesday. Stay "PAY"tient and wait for the best set ups to come to you.
#MarketAnalysis #SPX #SPX500
Has Cardano started a new leg higher?Happy Monday, TradingView community. After a flat weekend, buyers have defiantly hit the new week with a lot more energy. After a hesitant start, buyers came back into the crypto markets during today’s Asian session.
Today’s European session comes online. We’re still seeing strong interest, with many of the top 10 continuing to hit solid gains.
Our focus today is on Cardano. Has today’s rally started to confirm a new leg high? What has our interest is the pattern before today’s action. We can see a clear LL that failed to hold and a new HL in May. We did see one attempt by buyers fail after they tested .6850. After consolidation, today’s move is a breakout with support at .5460 and minor resistance at .6040. We want to see price close above resistance today.
Looking forward, we want to see how buyers handle their latest move back into the last supply area. A break above or firm close, close to .68 would be a good sign buyers are in control of momentum. A close below 0.600 would worry, in our opinion.
Thanks for stopping by, and good trading.
Cryptos looking better...Trading plan and review of Key LevelsShare markets managed to find some buyers to hold up off the lows as the US was largely range bound for the session. Buyers were happy to soak up the selling pressure from a weak open and fend off another selloff. The USD ran lower as safe havens moved down which lifted Gold. Major US indexes look set to bounce again into the weekend on more bargain hunting.
The general trend for major Indexes remains down with the Inflation and Interest Rate Rises in focus....continuing to be careful into shares as prices could continue lower.
BITCOIN and ETHEREUM remained around lows as buyers remained on the sidelines unwilling to commit to a rally. The price action from the US session is more positive and I expect more buyers to start to dip their toes in the water.
Markets covered
US - DOW, Nasdaq and SP500
Europe - DAX and FTSE100
Asia - Hang Seng, ASX200 and Nikkei
FX - Dollar Index (USD), EURUSD , GBPUSD , AUDUSD and USDJPY
Commodities - GOLD , Oil and Copper
Crypto - Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin - We still need more indications to see the aftermath.Hey guys. Its been a little while since I posted last time. Bitcoin just seemed to show us its drama as usual and unfortunately we are in a hard position to speculate the most probable outcome at this point. But it seems its in a short term bearish trend and needs more indicators to be considered patiently. Therefore I will try to list the outcomes that have a big possibility by the following days and weeks by which I will be updating on the issue when we get more indications.
- By this as I have already tried to point it out it seems short term bearish scenario is more handful at this moment backed by some fundamental indicators from the US government interest rate news. Looking at the chart we are in a point that Bitcoin is trying to escape a bearish downtrend breakout which is a critical point to whether it is going to breakout for a further downward correctional movement or not. After looking out the outcome from the daily candle at this point we will have a more clearer sight to predict where it might go in the coming days and weeks. As many traders and analysists are saying there is a probability of going downward to 33,XXX or even 28,XXX area if things are going to keep like these espicially in the US stocks and other major economical agents around the world. I will be giving updates after we see what happen to the close of the following candlestick. For now the scenario's can be taken as :
1. Refusal of a bearish breakout and going to test the 36,XXX - 38,XXX area.
2. Breaking out of the bearish side for a further correction towards the area of 33,XXX and 28,XXX respectively.
Stay Tuned For Live Updates.
@abanefsobulls
The Last Stand for Bitcoin📆🟡 BTC/USDT (BITCOIN)
📊 Time Frame: 4H
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Bitcoin is trying to hold the last local support at 3000$ and I think finally it will be break. Bitcoin needs to hold above 34000$ then we can see a movement to 39000$ (IN ORDER TO GATHERING LIQUIDITY).Lots of longs liquidated below 33000$ and many Stop Loss already hit. Now there are many sorters in the market and liquidity is around 35000$ and also CME gap is at 35000$. So I expect price to pump around 35K$ in next few days. Not even single good news affect on bitcoin price positively because of global tension in the market.
Can we expect more inflation? A look US Consumer Price Index.We are living in very uncertain times. I wanted to provide a couple of view in order to understand the current market situation better and determine a strategy going forward.
So I have created a US consumer price indes YOY% chart.
We have not seen such high interest rates since the 1970s when demographics created a demand shock and oil embargos and Iran crisis created a demand shock leading to high inflation.
Today, respectively as a result from 2 years of Covid-19 (measures) and now a war we have seen tremendous supply shock.
Now can we expect the peak of the inflation fear has passed?
Will we see a slow growth and a declining inflation?
Stay tuned for more charts....
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