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Waiting for the stark reality of economy to be exposed!Op-ed: The charts show global stocks could retest their March lows later this year www.cnbc.com Key points: From a technical analysis perspective , global stock indexes in March wiped out critical long-term support factors pertaining to the entire multiyear rallies since the conclusion of the global financial crisis bear markets, that have driven many stock indexes to all-time highs. From our technical perspective, although the short-term outlook into June remains for further upside, we do not see most of the major benchmarks challenging the current 2020 cycle highs. Given that markets remain contained below the peaks from the first quarter of 2020 at the end of the second quarter and taking into consideration the above-mentioned damage inflicted to the long-term charts, the threat in the next two quarters is for a roll back down lower into the very wide ranges established by the first-quarter sell-offs. From a macroeconomic perspective , a more negative outlook could be driven by the lifting of lockdowns allowing for the removal of fiscal accommodation by governments, which could expose the stark reality of a post-pandemic global economy, damaged by the measures taken during global lockdowns. Furthermore, there is also the risk of a second wave of coronavirus cases and deaths as lockdowns are eased, potentially seeing lockdown measures reinstated. Finally, the growing resumption of tensions between China the U.S. (as well as other nations), could lead to a renewal of the 2019 trade war. With most commentators agreeing that the economic recovery is likely to be U-shaped at best or even L-shaped at worst, the likelihood of a V-shaped recovery by the global economy seems unlikely, which is likely going to be needed to continue the aggressive V-shaped rebound in stock indexes. In summary then, although the short/intermediate-term outlook remains for renewed upside for the major global stock averages into June, we do not see a resumption of intermediate or longer-term bull trends. Rather, markets could likely be contained within the broader ranges defined by the first-quarter 2020 bear markets, or possibly even into the second half of 2020 to retest the March 2020 bear move lows.
SP:SPXShort
by krisu619
3
Signs Of A CONFUSED MarketHi @FollowMyForex traders, Earlier this week I was reading about how managers at some hedge funds were removing their money from the markets because they just didn't know how to read the markets right now. It said, "even the big boys are getting slaughtered". Currently, we are experiencing a confused market if there ever was one. Just take a look at the current H1 move on the USDJPY . A 60 pip drop followed by a 60 pip rise isn't any way you'd see the market move in recent history. We've been seeing this up-down whipsawing the whole week. Some big traders have been taking shots this month like never before in their careers. I even know of two who have reached their maximum drawdown and is going to take a break from trading for 7 days now. Ouch! It's in times like these that the most important aspect of trading becomes clear again - risk management. It's easy to forget about it when it's raining pips like during the period from the end of February until end of April, but it's a bad habit to get into, whether it's going good or not. Why? Because you never know when an unpredictable change in the fundamental way the market is trading is going to happen and hit your account hard. If you got out of trades when you saw markets were behaving erratically - good for you. If you maintained strict management and never risked more than you should to recover from a loss - good for you. If you are ending the week anywhere between profitable and 1% - 2% down - GOOD FOR YOU. You were practising diligent money management. Thanks to everyone who traded with us this week and congrats on the winning trades! Trade safe and have a great weekend. ♦ P.S. Dear reader, if you liked this post, I would greatly appreciate a thumbs up! And if you want more commentaries like this, trade ideas and signals, remember to follow me. Thanks!
by FollowMyForex
3
Dow Jones Index- BULLS COMING TO MARKET Big Bos : "God damn it. People hungry. I will have a big event after this. You are my supporter or not?" Subordinates: "But Boss, colleagues and our friends still afraid about...." Big Boss: "Quite all of you. I tell you. Now get going to them. Tell them, I want market rising. Bearish its over. Don't you think i am stupid. All of you already full enough buying stocks in cheaper price. The holiday is ended. I want market rising. God damn it. Do you understand?" Subordinates: "Roger Bos. We do it right away" . -------------------------------------------------------- And we see bulls coming to the market. Voila ... Q: " J, i wanna ask. This market movement is just temporary or not?" J: " Well. I still dont know if the market can breakout 26740 or not. But I feel that market will not drop sharply like the past. It will be ranging in level 22750-26740. They will make the market like that way for a while. That's my thought". Q:" Ah i see. So it is the time to buy?" J: " You buy when the market dropping. or when it is under correction. Whatever the correction it has. By the way, correction has multiple form. But I don't want to let you know about that. Maybe later in future...Lol Q: " okay, okay man. Then i will prepare ..." J" " Prepare your money to buy?" Q:" No man. Prepare to have a bath. You want to come with me?" J": God damn it. (throwing roll of tissue ).... -J
DJ:DJILong
by Jee_D
1
$CADJPY Short against Weekly Close of 78.00With this weekly close below the EMA9, the CADJPY continues to test a firm resistance and retreat. The $CADJPY is looking like a Short against Weekly Close of 78.00 for a test of the low at 73.00. The current price is at 76.68, which would provide a good risk to reward for this pair. Only weekly close above the weekly high of 78.00 would negate this pair's bearish pattern. My analysis is not to be taken as final target or exact numbers, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going. Take profit when you feel necessary or cut your losses. Please feel free to like and comment. Let's make some money together! Happy Trading! Dr. Lydia Smith
Short
by DrLydia
1
Long $USDCAD against 1.3900The USD/CAD has held support at 1.3900 over the last few weeks. This on a weekly and monthly charge would show that a triangular pattern formation is being formed, if the support holds. This along with fundamentals of supporting the dollar rise, Would support a long here. Therefore I am looking to buy the usd/cad on a weekly basis for a test of recent high of 1.4100. Unless the other pairs can break the range, the pattern favors a strong dollar over the coming weeks. If you are looking to trading make sure the shorter time frames are in oversold to maximize profit. Risk to Reward. Only a close below weekly support would negate trade. If you like this analysis, make sure to like, and comment, which is appreciated. Let's Make some money together! Happy Trading Dr. Lydia Smith
Long
by DrLydia
XRPUSD BITMEX - DAILY CHARTLooking at the DAILY chart for XRPUSD on Bitmex, I've noticed the following during this big sell off; 1) Breakout from Uptrend in process, more clear once close on DAILY or even 4HR chart for confirmation (Reliable TF's) 2) Lower Highs have been made - waiting for Retest at next Lower High for a SHORT entry (2050 - 2150 Sats for entry point) 3) DAILY/4HR Candle close below Mid Boillinger Band (waiting for confirmation) 5) MacD & RSI looking like buyer exhaustion and sellers coming in 7) 2 scenario's: Full retrace between 1045 - 1200 sats or A Retrace to 61.80 or 78.60 Fib with a Breakout from Downtrend Do your own research (TA), not financial advise - My thought process and what I will be doing. TREND IS OUR FRIEND!! Feed Back would be great.
BITMEX:XRPUSD.PShort
by Siyerk
Weekly US Market Update | Week Ending on 1st of May 2020Hello everybody! Welcome to another episode of Weekly Market Update. Let's get started with the performance of the major indexes of Wall Street for the week ending on 1st of May 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed on Friday with a loss of 2.55%, losing 622.03 points and closing at 23723.69. On a weekly basis the Dow Jones had a loss of 0.22% while from the start of the year it has a loss of 16.87%. The S&P 500 closed on Friday with a loss of 2.81% losing 81.72 points and closing at 2830.71 points. For the week the S&P 500 had a loss of 0.21% while it's YTD performance is -12.38%. The NASDAQ Composite Index closed on Friday with a loss of 3.2% losing 284.6 points and closing at 8604.95. For the week it was down 0.34% while from the first of the year it is only 4.1% down. As you can see the NASDAQ composite has better performance than the other two major indexes. The current market outlook right now is that we are on an UPTREND. An Uptrend that was confirmed on 2nd of April 2020, the date that we had our follow through day. A follow through day is a day of a new rally between 4th and 7th day with a gain of 1% at least and volume higher than the previous day. On 28th of April we had a distribution day on both Nasdaq and SP500. A distribution day is a day when a major Index falls 0.2% or more with volume higher than the previous day. So we have 1 distribution day for the Nasdaq and 1 distribution day for the SP500. A lot of distribution days on a short term means weakness for the rally. Nasdaq broke the Trendline Support (2). Personally I wouldn't be afraid if we have a pullback at our Trendline Support (1) and then the markets continue up. If this happens, it's normal. If it breaks the Trendline Support (1), more downside will happen. But the Friday's Candlestick shows that the market will fall a little more. We remain on an UPTREND right now and we have to see if it will break the Trendline Support (1). As long as we are above the Trendline Support (1) we are ok. See you next week for another Weekly Market Update!
TVC:IXICLong
by dionthas
POUND DOLLAR MARKET REVIEW (POST-MORTEM)Hi Traders! Before the market close this week, we can see strong bullish bias on the price action. But that's a good news for sell opportunity due to price already touched QML level and we have a fakeout signal which we can expect the price will slightly bearish next week. However, if the price break 1.26441, might be it will break our resistance level previous high and possible to make highest high. So let's take a break for public holidays and enjoy our time with family. We battle again next week!
by traderfiz
S&P 500 - anticipate up thrust with a short setup27 Apr 2020 recap - on the daily chart, S&P 500 continued to edge higher with decreasing spread and slightly lower volume compared to last Friday's session. During the last hour, it attempted to test the swing high at 2885 but was rejected and closed at 2869, which is inline with my daily market analysis from yesterday. Feel free to check out my market analysis from yesterday below: Despite the up wave since 22 Apr is laborious, the low supply level does not provide confirmation for short sellers to jump in. Nevertheless, S&P 500 futures reach the resistance level near the swing high at 2885 and it should unfold itself soon. Bias - down Key levels - Resistance: 2885 (swing high), 2915 Support: 2840, 2800, 2750 Potential setup - An up thrust or a test of the day high/non-RTH high should provide a good short entry. Else a commit below 2840 with a weak rally up should see continuation of the down swing to test the support at low levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by mingjong