The Altcoin Total2 Trade: Keeping it SimpleThis is another look at what I am calling "The Total2 trade" for alts. The I believe I see a fractal in Total2 which suggest an alt season could last more than a year.
Blow By blow
The light orange boxes show a multi-year consolidation on the altcoin market cap
That consolidation lead to an initial break out into the blue boxes. In 2016 we consolidated for months between the 1.414 and 1.618 levels of the alt coin bear market retracement
Currently Total2 is consolidating with the 1.414 acting as resistance with an apparent cup and handle continuation pattern. As of this writing we are less than 1% away from Total2's all time high with a massive bullish continuation pattern.
If we have another couple of days similar to recent price action the cup and handle will perform with a target that sees the market cap go up some 70%, perhaps by the end of the year.
My Conclusions
Based on the previous price action of Total2 I do not see this move stopping at the cup and handle target. Rather I suspect coins will have vicious corrections when each of the ".618" fib levels are reached on Total2. As this is a trade based on Total2 I don't really know what Bitcoin will be doing at this time. Bitcoin has chopped between 30 and 60k for a very long time at this point, almost 300 days. If BTC does the same after impulsing for a couple of months we could easily see a 3-4 month impulse on bitcoin while it reaches highs at or above $100k and then another 300 days as it tops and decides if it will create a bull or bear trap. Whether BTC resolves itself bearish or bullish in 9-12 months gives the alts time to go on a tear.
I am not a financial advisor but I will tell you what I am doing... I am taking coins that look bullish against btc and eth and looking to long those to target. What target? Well for my LTC trade I will be looking to close my margined longs where the fib levels showed relevance on the way down. In order to get a cleaner chart I have to look up LTCUSD/ETHUSD.
Misc Musings
As a neat thing to consider is the market cap of Gold or the SPX or some other major bench mark. In very short time the altcoin market could have more liquidity than the gold market. And a bit after that is the total market cap of the S&P500. Its almost crazy to consider. Another thing to think about is the almost 70T in wealth US baby boomers are estimated to put in the hands of their inheritors in the next 10 years or so. That wealth has to go somewhere. Also, it technology is suppose to revolutionize everything by being faster and cheaper than those savings have to go somewhere as well. I am kinda excited to see which crazy target we reach over the next year.
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