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Marketcorrection

Bitcoin 2022 Week 5 UpdateBitcoin structure continues to reflect bearish momentum. 100 EMA has fallen below 200 EMA "death cross" with BTC seeing rejection at the 200 EMA on the 3 day chart. This week, the FOMC communicated rate hike in March along with beginning of asset reduction on federal bank balance sheets... QE unsustainable given risk of permanent inflation not previously realized. - Bloomberg projection is a reduction of balance from $3 trillion to $330 billion over the coming year, indicating significant sell pressure to come due to tightening money supply. - Bond yields are increasing, equity markets are beginning to take this into account. - Given monetary policy tightening, normal institutional behavior is portfolio rebalancing weighted towards risk-off (less speculative) assets. Near term $BTC PT is $30k with continuation of downward momentum driven by instituional risk off behavior.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by R0MM3LL
NDX Potential Correction LevelsSetting long-term channels provides clear distinction between major market shifts. Likely correction %'s from ATH's: - 25% minimum expected decline - 40% is the most likely correction - 55% major correction - Total market reset would be 90% The blue channel reflects the top-end growth breaking out in 2018, followed by another breakout above the dark pink channel in 2019. Bright pink channel defines the market exuberance from unfettered stimulus & "quantitative easing" that is unsustainable. Expectation for a reset of 40% from ATH to 9,800 is likely, while a correction to mid-channel would be about 25% from top. There are multiple instances where a 40% correction occurred: - mid-1987 - early 2000's (dot.com bubble) - Early 2020 w/ global p-demic/'rona While there were larger ones: - 2008 housing crisis resulted in a 55% correction - "Great Depression" realized a ~90% market decline.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by R0MM3LL
1
Bitcoin Death Cross Scenarios$BTC closed Jan 6th Daily with a bearish engulfing candle, providing indication that selling momentum remains strong. Unable to sustain long-term mid-channel as support, increasing likelihood of 100 EMA falling below the 200 EMA for an impending "death cross" in near future. Bearish structures continue, double tops, head & shoulders losing neckline support, Lindsay's 3 Peaks & Domed House. Overall, macroeconomic picture shows markets are overheated with Fed communicating multiple rate hikes are imminent. Market indicators (M2, PPI, CPI, Rev Repo, etc.) clearly reflect bumpy road ahead. Bitcoin support levels to watch - Going to $38k Potential to continue downwards for support at: 1. Best Case: $35k 2. Likely Case: $30k 3. Worst Case: $19k 4. Candle wick low for worst case is potential of $12k to $16k Invalidation scenarios: 1. Unlikely: Continued QE and "stimulus" delaying an overall major market correction 2. Possible: Market sentiment changes and BTC is considered a hedge to protect principal 3. Reversal: Bitcoin Spot ETF or other catalyst causing inflow of new money or broader institutional buy-in.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by R0MM3LL
Which camp are you in? SPY based off of Elliot Wave TheoryBased on the Elliot Wave theory, there are three things that I think ya'll should check out. We are close to a correction but one of them is a two year bear market and the other is a 2-3 month correction before the next impulse wave to the upside. If you guys don't know anything about Elliot Wave theory, I highly recommend reading up on it. There are rules that must be followed but its pretty simple once you study it for a couple of days. Anyways if we sit below 320 on the SPY, we are in for a melt down that basically back tracks to March 2020 lows. If we bounce from 360, we're in for a big ride up to all new highs (SPY 500). But...that maybe the last leg of a real bull market that started in the 1990s (the beginning of digital age). The question is what camp am I in? I think the Fed wants inflation. And I think there is inflation. I literally paid close to $80 for 15lbs of Brisket at Costco when it used to be $35 a year ago. Chicken just got really expensive too. Cost of food is up. I think the Fed wants to raise interest rates. The Fed knows it doesn't have ammunition to soften the blow when a true problem erupts e.g. 2008 crash. With Fed Funds rate at 0, there is no room for mistakes. So my answer is we are in for a big pull back down to 320 but less steep like 2020 and the start of the big correction ABC like 2003 - 2008. Which camp are you in? What are your thoughts? Please like and share.
AMEX:SPY
by CTRLZEEE
1
DowJ divergence and market collapse by end of year??The monthly Dow index is dominated by divergence, thus indicating the direction of the market, the same was in February during the covid-19 expansion (the market anticipates this a few months before and do not understand how it did so). With the formation of the divergence against covid-19, it began on September 04, 2018 (dark red) (blue line on January 2, 2018) and ended on December 02, 2019, it caused significant damage to the market along with the covid-19 pandemic. But the bears divergence was replaced by a bull that started on January 4, 2016 and ended on March 02, 2020. And the bull divergence was much longer and the market went much higher. And this new divide divergence, which began on January 2, 2018 (dark blue line) and may end in the second half of this year. I think after this long bull market there will be a pretty strong market depreciation later this year, and definitely stronger as it was a couple of weeks ago. But as I mentioned, if rsi rise above 93.09, otherwise there will be bears divergence and the Dow index will fall, thus starting to collapse the market. From a technical analysis point of view, everything is very simple and basic. But it is a powerful tool that makes a big impact on the market. If you have anything to add, write it in the comments.
TVC:DJI
by MantasJanusaitis
Clover Health Will Show A Technical Growth In Channel To $9.92After a false breakout due to a correction in the broader market, $CLOV has re-entered the falling channel it has broken out of and closed within it. From this area, I expect growth towards the resistance zone around $9.92 to $10.00. However, do note that this zone of resistance that we are heading for is a very strong area of resistance. In this area, we see an intersection of: 1. Dynamic resistance created by the upper parallel line of the falling channel 2. Fibonacci resistance and Horizontal resistance 3. Former $10 SPAC price floor which acts as a very strong psychological resistance Regardless, I expect a move towards it first. Would have to see how the market reacts to this level first before deciding on our next course of action. This is not an investment or trading advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:CLOVLong
by AntrePoint
1
Clover Health Continues To Track The Broader Market Very CloselySince the market started selling-off late February due to disturbance in the bond market, the movements of $CLOV has since been mirroring the direction of the overall market relatively tightly. With the closing of the market earlier today after a considerably sideway and mixed trading day, S&P 500 rose by 0.60%, NASDAQ fell by 0.04%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.46%. Similarly, $CLOV also had a relatively mixed trading day, showing green for the first half of the trading session, and later closing slightly red on the second half. These movements can be attributed to the general market condition as well, where during the first half of the trading session, the release of bullish CPI data edged the market higher, while a relatively average and within expectations $38 billion 10-year notes auction brought the action back down to trade relatively sideway. I expect $CLOV to continue tracking the overall direction of the market closely, at least for tomorrow, where we await for the result of a $24 billion sale of 30-year bond that can potentially move the market significantly in either direction, should anything unexpected occur. Regardless, it is good to note that on a technical perspective, $CLOV is approaching some key trading area that we need to take note of. We are currently resting just below the dynamic resistance formed by the bottom of the previous bearish channel that were trading in before this bond-induced market correction. While we may have already rejected this area once (likely due to the broader market movement as mentioned above), if we are able to break back into the bearish channel, our next target would be the next Fibonacci resistance and the top of the aforementioned bearish channel at around $9.92. However, if we fail to break back into it, we could be looking at a re-test of $7.78 or even $6.67. As such, tomorrow's trading session will likely be a very important one as it will give us an indication of where we are headed short-term. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:CLOVLong
by AntrePoint
Clover Health Rallies Despite An Early Sell-off Into A $6.31 LowThe movement of $CLOV continues to mirror the condition of the overall market. Today, the tech-led sell-off took a pause, with S&P 500 rising by 1.95% and NASDAQ Composite rising by 1.55%. Similarly, Clover Health ended higher by 7.54%, closing above the previous day's close. Going into next week, I expect $CLOV performance to continue reflecting the overall market condition. Nevertheless, these are some notable resistance and support area that you should take note next week, with key areas highlighted in Bold: Psychological resistance: $8.00 , $8.50 , $9.00 Psychological support: $7.50, $7.00, $6.50 , $6.00 Fibonacci resistance: $9.92 Fibonacci support: $7.78, $6.67 , $5.07 Dynamic resistance: Bottom of the previous bearish channel that we were trading in before this market correction ( ~$8.50 ) Dynamic support: Top of the very tight bearish channel that we just broke out of (~$7.10) Once this correction is over, I expect $CLOV to emerge as one of the winners. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:CLOVLong
by AntrePoint
6
American Express is about to join the trend of large selloff.More sell signals on the daily chart. This time there were many over the past few days for American Express. I was hesitant to call this one a sell after its activity on Friday, but the historical statistics agreed there is plenty more downside. This downside coupled with multiple agreements throughout the rest of the U.S. overbought markets further helped convince me the SELL signals from Friday's close are still valid. I have plotted all of the potential delays to the actual sell off followed by the potential target bottoms. All of these targets and days are based off of historical median and average price action when each signal triggers a SELL on the Daily chart. I received many major SELLs on Friday which is quite the confluence of future activities. I selected NOK, CAT, and AXP as there was a large amount of agreement across the timeframes. Last week was rough and preceded by a bearish MACD cross on the S&P 500 index. All of these signals taken together could spell a 20% correction in the near future. I can understand parallel sell signals in the defense and industrial equipment sectors, but the inclusion of AXP makes me think the market is about to get dropped quite a few pegs. Based on our more recent 5-10-20% drops, this one could be quick and preceded by the same unorthodox recoveries. The historical figures and reasons for each target are posted as always on my website in the signature block. Feel free to follow as we post new articles nearly everyday.
NYSE:AXPShort
by StockSignaler
3
Caterpillar (CAT) is flashing sell on this chart, Thoughts?Based on the closing price for the past 3 days, CAT is lighting up my trading indicators like a Christmas Tree--a red Christmas tree. The RSI algorithm fired the first sell signal. 5 algorithms agreed it was time to sell based on Friday's close which means this coming week could get more nasty than the market was last week. I have plotted all of the potential delays to the actual sell off followed by the potential target bottoms. All of these targets and days are based off of historical median and average price action when each signal triggers a SELL on the Daily chart. I received many major SELLs on Friday which is quite the confluence of future activities. I selected NOK, CAT, and AXP as there was a large amount of agreement across the timeframes. Last week was rough and preceded by a bearish MACD cross on the S&P 500 index. All of these signals taken together could spell a 20% correction in the near future. The historical figures and reasons for each target are posted as always on my website in the signature block. Feel free to follow as we post new articles nearly everyday.
NYSE:CATShort
by StockSignaler
2
Is something about to happen in the Defense Industry?The algorithms, specifically, the Precise Signal is at it again. The signal is a SELL for Northrup Grumman. Historically, the Precise Signal indicating a SELL sees the stock move down an average of 10%. In fact the minimal drop for this signal with NOC is 7%. Considering Friday saw the stock drop 3% off its high, another 7% (or more) would be huge. My MTFs also signaled SELLs, but since the Precise is built off of them this a not a surprise. For you technical junkies, the full analysis with each target is at my site for free as always
NYSE:NOCShort
by StockSignaler
6
$TQQQ Market Correction DDThe market was extremely bloody last night, where we saw $TQQQ trading at highs of $98.07 at one point and subsequently closing at $87.90. I believe this can be attributed to the rising bond yields trend we are currently witnessing, particularly in the 5 year and 10 year treasury yield. Between the start of February 2021 to February 24th, the 5 year treasury yield has been steadily increasing at an average of 0.01 to 0.03 daily, while the 10 year treasury yield has been increasing at an average of 0.01 to 0.04 daily. However, yesterday on the 25th of February, this skyrocketed. The 5 year treasury yield shot up by 0.19 from 0.62 to 0.82, while the 10 year treasury yield shot up by 0.16 from 1.38 to 1.54. Typically, when the 5 year treasury yield goes beyond the 0.75% threshold and the 10 year treasury yield goes above the 1.50% threshold, the stock market tend to sell off in reaction to that. This huge one-day surge in yield return as a result of a lack of interest in bonds likely exacerbated the sell-off. I believe that this correction is extremely healthy in a market where a lot of the valuations are rather high; and this is unlikely the "huge market crash" or the "bubble pop" premonition that many investors are fearful for, especially considering the fact that a huge $1.9 trillion stimulus will be incoming. However, it will undoubtedly do us good to remain cautious and keep some cash on the side because in the short-term, the hardening of yields will likely lead to some volatility - which means more frequent dips for you to average your positions; but more importantly, eventually, the consequences of printing these money will likely catch up to us in the form of record-level inflation and interest rate rise, possibly killing the bull run - and we need to be prepared for it. For now, I expect growth from the support zone of this bullish channel back to the $100 to $110 range. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by AntrePoint
2
ES: Corrective Wave PredictionsI've been trying to work on my waves cycles with the hopes of getting more accurate predictions of price movement. I have created several of these charts as private ideas but I've decided to start sharing some of them publicly. Obviously, predicting price movements even with Elliott wave theory is kind of like a shot in the dark so I don't expect these lines to match up with price perfectly (at least not yet!). Since this is somewhat tongue-in-cheek I am not going to focus on and in-depth analysis of price movement feel free to refer to the chart or make any comments if you are curious about what my thoughts. (if you are wondering why I am using impulse waves for a correction it its simply because i believe this is a 5-3-5 ABC correction of the larger move - feel free to zoom out to see wave count for the larger cycle).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by myceliium
Market correction I’m shorting small caps here. VIX is on an uptrend. All indexes/ assets starting to top out momentarily IMO. In combination of the stimulus package fallout and important economic data coming out soon plus a lot of highs being reached across most markets I have turned bearish for the time being. I have opened up a short on small caps as I believe they’ll be hit the hardest in a correction. I also have opened some long VIX calls, will most likely post something on that later. I am using this as a sort of hedge for my crypto portfolio. I am still Bullish long term on crypto’s but we’re due for a correction. This is NOT investment advice. My published ideas are my own opinions. I use them to hold myself accountable and to try and improve upon my investing strategy.
TVC:RUTShort
by MambaTrader24
S&P Possible Major Correction to $0 (Seriously)Elliot wave analysis showing the market is currently at the top. With the current state of affairs in the world, and the fact that wave 2 can retrace 100%, this leaves open a very good possibility of a total market collapse that still conforms to Elliott rules. On a large scale, we are entering a wave 2 correction. The standard correction can be expected to last 10 years like the previous cycles. However, if the correction ends up being a combination, and the world has continued on its current path, panic will quickly set in and all the fun will be over by 2033.
SP:SPXShort
by mikemillion
11