[TVIX] In the Kill Zone... Steady... Steady... POP!I expanded the kill zone a bit here guys, nailing the swing up was always a bit overly optimistic :).
2nd bar today kissed the top horizontal support channel and held above the bottom diagonal support channel. Still right on track.
Fundamentals vs the Fed, lets see who wins.
The indicators are betting on fundamentals coming out on top.
Marketcrash
[SPX x DIX/GEX 2Y] Looks Like a Giant Cresting Wave!Got a tip that led me here: squeezemetrics.com
Then had some fun playing with lines: ibb.co
I don't put too much weight in any given strategy, preferring to average them all against fundamentals but holy shit was I surprised when after diving in from scratch to map the empty chart, it actually turned into a terrifying, accelerating and rising wave that's looking like it's f*cking cresting and about to crash first week of June.
So wild!
I hope all the Bulls are having fun picking up the seashells from the receding ocean...
[SPX] Let the Drop Begin, 2100 x August... POC Weighing HeavyI can't lay off this damn SPX man.
Here's my drop map for June/July.
I'll think we'll touch 2100 before July end if not blow through it a bit, def by August end.
There's not enough momentum to keep this afloat much longer.
[SPX] Indicators Screaming SELL... Ignore at Your Own Peril!MACD looking to flip.
ADX looking to flip.
DPO very high.
RSI as VPT screaming sell.
RSI and RVI screaming sell.
SMAs weighing heavy on market and indicating a sell.
POC under price and signaling sell.
Really hard to make any kind of bull case from technicals here.
This is my last rundown on SPX before the creash probably (will start tomorrow and continue through mid-June).
I'll be busy riding the TVIX for the next two weeks :).
[TVIX] Indicators and Support Pointing toward BreakoutCheckout that upward support trend from May 12th low. That is particularly interesting given the nature of the TVIX to constantly fall lower.
Lookout for ADX crossing the DPO, better the divergence the stronger the trend.
Also lookout for RVI crossing and holding just above RSI, could be a leading indicator here of upward movement. Those indicators are really both primed signaling a pretty strong buy right now.
MACD still terrifying, it's clear something has to break. I'm betting that the news dropping 1st week of June with ensure that break is downward.
I'll be looking to expand my position Thursday and probably get my last bets in Friday before close. Maybe hold till weekend but unlikely we'll need to.
Prepare for the harvest!
[TVIX] Start of Massive Breakout... Profit from the CrashNothing to prove. Just callin it.
VPT as RSI rarely bounces back and forth above and below the dashed lines so many times so quickly. Something is definitely brewin!
[TVIX] How to Profit from Volatility and the Next CrashI've been running my mouth all over on here about a market crash so only right that I put my money where my mouth is.
Here's my angle, lets see how it goes :). TVIX at great value right now (anything under $200 really) given the decimated fundamentals and extreme uncertainty. Looking to exit $400-$800 range within one month on crash depending on severity. Lets see how it goes!
Feel free to catch up on three of TODAY's headlines:
www.ccn.com
www.ccn.com
www.ccn.com
Inspiration from @dereckcoatney VIX analysis, article tagged below.
[SPX 1W Trend Analysis] Oh Boy... This Looks Much Worse Was inspired by @cryptocarlsontrading who made a very compelling 1W short case here:
www.tradingview.com
Wanted to build on that with my own 1W breakdown.
As a swing trader sometimes I get caught too much in my 4h world and it can be very instructive to zoom out and see the bigger picture.
After doing this exercise, I'm even more convinced of the coming June crash.
Just look at those parallel trend channels compared to the support. We're definitely retesting 1W green support in June with some risk of breaking and holding under that for a few days (although given the consistency here I think there is more chance for a bounce off of it).
Points:
1. That MACD is horrifying. Most likely the histogram and MACD line won't even go high enough to retest channel resistance before shooting back down.
2. The price barely crossed the half way point of the current trend channel, expect it to fall back and stick at channel support a bit, won't retest channel resistance. Volume Profile will support it pretty well.
3. Very slippery Volume Profile slope once it holds below current channel, expect it to slide all the way down to bottom support of new channel (4th yellow line)
4. Once it breaks that expect it to test the green support before rebounding for good and growth can continue at a more normalized, properly priced trajectory.
5. RSI: New up channel is steeper than previous up channel, likely will stick to blue down channel here.
6. OBV: Seems like a decent sell signal trigger here once it breaks below trendline.
7. VPT as RSI: Very strong sell signal.
8. POC is below price, it is right at the price on the 4h, this is bearish as well.
[SPX] SMA Trend Analysis - Beautiful 10 & 200 & POC ConvergenceAlrighty, long term I'm looking to build some kind of SMA trend and volume analysis model that could provide useful signals based on the angle of the trend lines and the POC and this is the start.
Like if you wish to support my work!
10 & 50 moving in parallel about ~7 degrees below the 200.
100 moving ~15 degrees below the 200.
POC is converging beautifully right with the 10 and 200 strongly signaling something is reaching a breaking point either up or down.
All fundamentals and technicals pointing to down. All hopes and dreams and FOMO pointing to up.
The market cannot be equal in value today as in January 2019. That is fundamental insanity.
So this will almost certainly be a breaking point downward.
Anyway, I digress!
Let's note here that the...
200 is trending 12 degrees below the POC
100 - 23 below
50 - 16 below
10 - 16 below
Lets call the average of these four Market Gravity POC. That gives out a Downward Gravity of 16.75.
Here's my first shot at reading the tea leaves:
I would say the 100 moving at such a steep degree against the 200 and twice the degree of the 10 and 50 is an extremely bearish short term signal. And the tandem trend of the 10 and 50 as bearish as well.
The fact that the Market Gravity POC runs below the 10, 50 and 200 is also a very bearish signal.
I would say the case is made AT LEAST for the market retesting March lows if not a medium to high degree of downside potential beyond that.
Where you at?
[SPX] Crash Imminent... Steady... Steady... DROP!My original SPX idea still holding beautifully.
This thing is wound up beyond belief!
Don't expect the market to crash next week but the slide should begin and if all these trend channels hold for another 10 candles (I'm on the 4h), then it's definitely going down the first and second week of June.
Get your shorts in this week!
[SDOW] Another Way to Profit on a Crash (Part 2)- DO NOT ATTEMPTI laid out all the details in part 1:
But let me repeat my disclaimer: This is a very complex and volatile investment and should not be traded.
[SPXU] Another Way to Profit on a Crash (Part 1)- DO NOT ATTEMPTSPXU is a very complex financial instrument and you should never trade this. It goes up when the market goes down. It resets everyday, unlike the VIX which functions more like a traditional stock.
Honestly I don't even know how to chart this thing as it seems to function similar to a logarithmic scale but man look at that upside!
There's barely any details on the internet about this thing but it is intended to be a day trade play and NOT intended to hold for more than a single day. Something to do with your daily increase or decrease compounding each day. Every new day it resets and this can really make the trade extremely volatile (please if anyone can explain this better, chime in!).
I tested this out today. Was pretty certain the market was going to go down so I bet 1.5% of my portfolio on the SPXU and SDOW (same thing for either market).
SPXU:
Bought - $14.10
Sold - $14.38
SDOW:
Bought - $30.04
Sell - $30.28
This doesn't look like much I know but if you extrapolate, that's 2% ROI on the SPXU in one day and 1% ROI on the SDOW in one day. What a return!
Instead of day trading it though, which can be quite time consuming and brutal, I want to try to angle for a swing trade.
Keep in mind everything says this is NOT INTENDED TO BE HELD MORE THAN ONE DAY and for the reason why they just say because your winnings or losses compound over time.
But that sounds fantastic if I'm very confident the market will drop in much greater proportion on average each day than it rises over the next 30 days (I do believe this now).
So lets see what happens if I swing trade this bucking bronco. My big market crash bet is on the TVIX (3x the VIX) but SPXU and SDOW could potentially be quite lucrative with a small investment if the market does crash.
DAX30: 3H - Downside is now possible in May 2020Price has met a diagonal 45° trendline resistance and as we enter the month of May it is ready to head down.
This graph is an extended version of the previous idea seen/linked below.
DAX30: 3H - Downside is now possiblePrice has met a diagonal 45°trendline resistance and as we enter the month of May it is ready to head down.
Dow Jones and its Head and Shoulder May 5, 2020After its minor bull, Dow Jones is now at its resistance area and if we take a look at its 4 hour chart we could see the price is forming a head and shoulder pattern. If within several trading days the price break through its support area, there is a probability the index would continue its major bearish trend, and going back to around 18,000 or even lower.
"Nobody Could've Seen this Coming" Is a Horse Sh1t Wall St. LieI was monitoring this ratio throughout 2019. Anyone following this could've seen that Gold was beginning to take US stocks's lunch money.
You can clearly see that US stock outperformance over Gold ended in late 2018. You can then see that a series of lower highs and lower lows were formed, and you can also see that multi-year rising trend support was violated with volatility behind it.
The trend already started, if you're late to the game, hop on now. Gold is going to outperform EM equities and US equities for YEARS.
It's my view that 1250-1300 (25%) is the max potential drawdown for Gold. For the S&P 500 and the Russell, the max drawdown is closer to 60-90%(!!!)
We are entering an extremely serious debt deflation. I like US Dollars and Gold as my two biggest allocations.
Also, if no one told you yet, stay the hell away from USO
Stock Market Crash 2020, begins this week.Don't get too excited, this is just a consolidation phase, i've done my homework and the market will fall to June 2013 lows.
$5,000 Mistake On SPCELet me walk you through one trade I took back in February. NYSE:SPCE
Waking up on Feb 25th, I noticed SPCE started tanking due to bad earnings. Recognizing this Head & Shoulder pattern wasn't difficult... At All!
Even though I had just started options trading the week before, I decided to trust my technical analysis opinion and took the trade. On Feb 25th I bought 3 $29 strike puts expiring 2/28 (2/28 the morning we bottomed out at $20).
Waking up the next day (Feb 26th) I sold all 3 contracts for a 80% return as I really didn't want to be greedy. Although as you see I should've trusted my TA and not let emotion come in between me and the bag.
Everything is a learning experience and part of the plan. Keep your head up, trade with confidence and let's get this bread.
Tata Motors - Still short. Really?As per my analysis there is no hope for tata Motors and it can be make more low. My Target is 49, 23 then 8 rupees. This stock is still a night mare for Investors
Are We At the TOP?!What are we in for?
Could this be the top of the market right now?
End of a market Cycle?
Maybe, seeing as the early warning signs are here. With similar structure to the previous cycle, at the top of a rising wedge/channel and the sell volume increasing... The signs do not look promising for continuation for sustained uptrend. The Market is always right, breaking the high and using as support on the weekly/monthly will prove this wrong no doubt.
How far can we see Dow Jones Drop? 15000?On market open Dow jones was trading around the 18000 level. It seems the coronavirus is really taking its effect. If we can see a drop into the 15000 level where the lows of 2015 are this will have erased 5 years of growth in simply weeks. Crazy movement we are seeing the past few weeks. If anyone is not familiar with dow jones it is an index containing 30 stock market companies in the United States. Index trading can be very volatile especially now but if we do see a pull back to the 15000 level i will be entering a long position as it is a great opportunity for the recovery period of the corona virus.
The 2020 Collapse (SP500)Self explanatory, moving at a rapid rate due to the catalyst known as COVID-19
Crash Comparison - 1929, 2000, 2008 and 2020
1929 - Crash
2000 - Crash
2008 -Crash
2020 - Crash
Which of the prior three major crashes most closely resemble the 2020 crash?
Certainly, not the 2000 crash, the initial drop is of equal magnitude, however the 2000 crash took over 365 days to reach that low from the highs, the 2020 crash has plumbed lower than 30% in just over 30 days.
Similar story for the 2008 initial crash, the final leg down in 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers would be the closest match, but this is still not equal to the magnitude drop we are experiencing in 2020, when you consider that the post Lehman drop was 48% over 150 days, this equates to roughly 0.3% a day, the 2020 drop by comparison is closer to 3x times the rate of drop, at over 1.0% per day in decline.
Even the initial 1929 stock market drop, that eventually lead to the great depression took 3x times as long to reach the 30% range.
Yes, the macro environments for these drops were very different, i understand this.
But it is worth considering just how unique these markets are at present time, with a combination of automated trading, real-time news feeds, easier access for retail investors and far higher leverage than ever before, this creates a highly volatile trading environment that can pivot at a moments notice.
My personal belief is that the pain is not over, there will be a bounce at some point, however i will not be participating in that rally, i will be waiting to short.
I think the ultimate bottom will be between the three crashes highlighted here, not quite the 90% devastation of the 1929 crash, but also not a 'typical' crash of 50% either.
It may sound crazy now, but, i do believe that the SP-500 "COULD," emphasis on "COULD" be lower than at the 2008 peak before the market bottom, in other words, i believe that the last decade of market gains may very well be erased.
This will obviously be dependent on the handling of Covid19 by governments around the world, this is not due to the loss of life (although that would be a global tragedy), it is instead due to the wave of defaults and bankruptcies that could flow out of this crisis as a result of the social distancing policies that governments will HAVE TO, not may have to, but have to employ in order to flatten the curve.
This will include businesses closing for for several weeks, potentially even several months, this in turn will cripple airlines, cruise ships, hotels, casinos and a host of other industries. Many of which are currently looking to the federal government for a bailout, this is also not mentioning the small businesses and how they will be impacted, or the knock on effects that this will have on employment, or lack thereof.
In short, the economic impacts and the societal impacts that will flow from the Covid19 virus are far-reaching, the macro environment is nothing like 2000 or 2008, the system is MORE unstable, not less, couple this with the potential for 1929 style unemployment and you have a recipe for disaster.
-TradingEdge
