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Marketcrash

Are Markets Really Crashing? (An S&P500 Study) #SnP500Traders, If you have been following the news items on mainstream media or social media, people all over the world seem to be discussing recent fall in indices indicating another market crash and a possible recession. In this study lets look at S&P500 index from almost purely technical point of view. Hit the like button and subscribe if you enjoyed this study. Comment below and let me know what you think of this analysis and what is your opinion in this matter? Are you trading S&P500? Have a great trading week!
UEducation
by vikinsa
2
Dr. Copper Back at Key Zone. Recessionary Trends Incoming?Copper is back at the major 2.50 zone I have spoken about in the past. Here is a weekly chart to show you how crucial it is: Copper of course is known as Dr. Copper due to it indicating the health of the world economy. And of course China consumes more than 50% of the copper supply. On the daily, we had multiple swings on an uptrend but recently, had a big fall from the 2.86 zone back to this key zone of 2.50. We have yet to make our first lower high swing in this downtrend. This swing could be forming at 2.62, but it requires a break and close below recent lows, taking us below 2.50. We know how coronavirus has impacted China, but perhaps copper has not priced in the recessionary trends that will come if this virus worsens. Less people travelling, less people spending money, supply chains getting disrupted all will lead to recessionary trends. We could see this break here in Copper.
OANDA:XCUUSD
by Uncharted-FX
S&P and Many Markets to Make L-H Swing? Fed Cutting Rates 100%!Many equity charts look similar. Amazing how gains from October.3rd/2019- February 20th/2020 got erased in 6 days. We are now in a downtrend, and we should expect a lower high to be made. I am looking for this swing as long as we remain below the break out zone indicated by the arrow at the 3230 zone. Have some fib targets to watch out for where I will await and see some sort of price action indicating a potential lower high swing. Remember, a lower high swing is NOT confirmed until we make a lower low, meaning and break and close below recent lows at 2854. If you await that break, it means yes, your risk vs reward may not be the greatest, but the probability of success is higher. Whereas a red candle at just a fib level will give you a better risk vs reward, but a lower probability of success. What I am watching closely is the Bond market. If I see stocks making a pullback, AND see Bonds go up as well, I would be dubious of markets holding onto gains. If stocks move up AND we see bonds falling, we are seeing money leave bonds and go back into stocks. Of course bonds are now being traded for capital gains rather than yield lol. People are frontrunning Fed cuts. We now know the Fed is cutting 100%, with fed futures showing the probability of the Fed cutting this month by 50 basis points around 95%. www.cmegroup.com Goldman Sachs also came out saying they expect 75 basis points to be cut from now until June 2020. If you follow my work, I have been saying this would happen, and that central banks and governments needed an excuse to save face. Enter coronavirus. Economy was already falling apart before this virus. Now they can say they have to cut rates and go back to QE even when they do not really want to because the economy was booming before until this virus came along.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Uncharted-FX
Gold pullback to Resistance now turned Support ZoneGold is back at retesting the flip zone. Many are confused on why Gold fell as everything fell except Bonds and the VIX. This is likely to do with margin calls forcing traders to close positions even in safety assets. I am still bullish on Gold going forward as it is a confidence crisis asset when people begin losing confidence in governments, in central banks, and in the fiat money. Gold breaking into all time new highs against many other currencies tell us what is coming. Going forward this does not change. We will see Gold break up higher against the USD (and the USD CAN be moving higher at the same time-read idea linked below). As long as Gold maintains above the swing shown by the arrow at the 1450 zone, we are still in a bullish trend.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Uncharted-FX
THE Cryptocurrency HyperwaveRSI right now corresponds exactly with that of Feb 2016, just before the 16 halving. Cryptocurrencies will signify the next DOTCOM boom x70. Everything is possible, nothing is impossible. In a few years, people will come back to see this chart and gasp. Although I wish to see the future, I simply cannot. This chart is a mirror of what the next few years will look like. A complete paradigm shift. People sold their houses and cars in 2017 to buy Bitcoin. People will be selling their bodies to get into the next cryptocurrency hyperwave. Human greed will be on display like never before. Do not forget, it will all come crashing and burning at some point. Just it has always done. Just as it always will. This is how cycles work.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by erjoni
US30 Crash Course To 21555.55| Market Crash| 28th February 2020Market Crash 2020 We are in the state of anxiety. Traders left with disappointment after president Trump failed to reassure that the virus can contain through US. This epidemic disrupted international trade and travel. Experts says it took one and a half year to develop the coronavirus vaccine while the disease spreading faster. The latest slide began Wednesday night, after a news conference by President Donald Trump failed to reassure investors and more new cases of the disease were reported outside China than inside for the first time. “The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus is on the rise, and so is the number of countries that have infections. Dealers are dreading a pandemic as they are afraid economic activity will be reduced as lockdowns will disrupt the business world. For me, we are just in the starting period of apocalypse. This could be worse than market financial crisis 2008. The global economy is on course for its weakest year since the 2008 financial crisis as efforts to contain epidemic has hit manufacturing activity in China and disrupted international trade and travel, Bank of America predicted. Earlier, Goldman Sachs cut its outlook for U.S. companies’ profit growth to zero. Frankly at this stage after the coronavirus slow down in travel plans that has busted the global supply chain apart, it will be a miracle if we avoid a recession. If companies can’t get the parts, then they can’t produce the goods that make the economy hum. The Dow Jones US30 prediction to crash to 21555.55. To be continue.. Regards, Zezu Zaza
UShort
by Zezu_Zaza
When Is The Next Stock Market Crash?First of all, I have zero financial knowledge. I am not educated and finance is not my profession. I barely understand your language. I'm only a technical guy. Looking at charts, I have predicted some possible targets of the next stock market crash. The worst scenario begins around $2600's. Hopefully this never happens. Maybe there's only 1% probability or maybe less. According to my analysis, S&P 500 is more likely going back $2600 any time sooner. And i think AMZN will crash more than 50% Not all my predictions are accurate. Nobody is 100% accurate. But, what if I'm right? Are you ready for that? Here are my targets S&P current price: $3103 / 04-Dec-19 1. 3090 - Already hit and please ignore this 2. 3045 - 1.87% / 01-Nov-19 3. 2925 - 5.73% / 10-Oct-19 4. 2845 - 8.30 / 26-Aug-19 5. 2670 - 13.95% / 30-Jan-19 6. 960 - 69.0% / 23-Jul-09 Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. Trade safe, Atilla Yurtseven
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by AtillaYurtseven
Is the market going to crash? An overview of the current marketDo you think the overall market sentiment/psychology is beginning to shift or change due to the current outbreak of the corona-virus? The current chart you are looking at has a Gann Fan placed at the DJI's all-time low price from the year 1932 that was a result of the Great Depression that started in 1929. If you are unfamiliar with what a Gann Fan is - it shows a relationship between time and price and acts as a support and resistance, and it also shows the strength of an overall trend. W.D. Gann - The creator of all Gann Indicators etc., believes that the market is geometric and cyclical in nature - just like the saying, "History tends to repeat itself." and "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Gann was much more complex than just this, but I am not here to fully explain all of his workings, however, I have found his indicators to be extremely useful and valuable. With that being said, there is a "rule of all angles" that applies to the Gann Fan's Angles - The rule states that when the market (price) breaks one angle, it will move toward the next one, this can be applied to up and down-trends, and can happen over a long period of time. This has been respected through time, although, it is not "scientific" - as you can place the angles anywhere on a chart as you please. However, the best place to utilize them are on significant swing highs and lows. It is very fascinating to see how this specific set of angles have been respected as both supports and resistances as time progresses (more specifically - as of the late 1980's to current for this example), you can see that is has been respected time and time again. Is it a coincidence that the market crashed in the year 2000 as it reached the 2/1 angle and was treated as a resistance - only later to find support on the 3/1 angle? And again being rejected by the 2/1 angle in 2008 and finding support on the 3/1 again in 2009? We know that a strong resistance typically doesn't break on the first time and that it may take a couple tries... Is that going to be the case now as we have recently reached the 1/1 angle? We are now in "the middle ground" and there is a large gap between the next support / resistance, which way will we go from here? Time will tell! The overall purpose of this post is to raise awareness and provide a new perspective to consider and think about. As I mentioned earlier - History tends to repeat itself, and I am a firm believer that events in life (as well as the market) are cyclical. If you like my content, please feel free to 'like' this post and 'subscribe' to my channel for more updates, trading set-ups, and more. Do you agree or disagree with what was said, or if you would like to add a comment, please do so below! * P.S. - You may also drag the map and check to see the origin / placement of the Gann Fan, it is very interesting to look back through history and see how the market played out! Thank you *This is not financial advice*
TVC:DJI
by Trendencies
1
S&P Dead Cat Bounce?So I have shorted the S&P on the 4 hour due to this pattern: Very nice break, and as you can see on the 4 hour we have YET to make a lower high swing in this downtrend move. Trends are composed of multiple swings. I do like what I see on the daily chart. When an instrument has moved down close to 3% in a day, it is likely over extended. I can see a bounce here before a move down lower forming our first lower high swing on the daily chart and also a head and shoulder pattern. So a dead cat bounce perhaps on the cards here. But to me, it is just plain old market structure.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Uncharted-FX
4
Will Interest Rates be Spiking?If you follow my work, I have said that stocks will continue to move higher because there is nowhere to go for yield. Central banks have suppressed interest rates where equities are the only place to go. The time to sell stocks will be when interest rates SPIKE. Likely in the double digits. This chart of the ten year US yield, is very important as the 10 year yield essentially is the base for other rates in mortgages, credit and loans etc. You can see that we were at 16% back in the 80's, and we are not about to retest the lows again which was set in 2012,2016 and seems like it will occur this year. Setting up a triple bottom, or a range after a very extended downtrend with multiple swings. Remember, bonds and yield are inverse so when yield drops, bond prices move up. This is still likely to happen. Why? Because in a risk off environment, you run into bonds. Meaning bonds go up, and yields go down. Now think that you are institutional fund or even a pension fund that needs to chase yield. Pension funds were historically into fixed income but have now had to switch to equities to chase yield. Institutions, or other larger funds, that follow asset allocation or rebalancing generally sell stocks when overpriced and move into bonds and vice versa. Well we are in an environment where BOTH stocks and bonds are at highs. Some would say overpriced. What does this mean? It means bonds are not held for yield, but are held for trades. Finding a greater fool who would buy the bond and loss money holding it until the duration of the bond. This is apparent in Europe and Japan where yields are negative. However, bonds still are traded because many think yields will be cut deeper into the negative! In the US and other western nations, many think cuts will go to 0, and perhaps even into the negative. This means bond prices will go up. Again, a trade and not really held for yield. One day it will make no sense to hold bonds for yield...just for trades...which is likely what we are already seeing. Don't believe my analysis? Listen to someone more wealthier and more smarter than me, Ray Dalio. He is warning of a paradigm shift where interest rates must go higher...unless bond markets are killed. So central banks cannot control longer term interest rates, they can actively control short term interest rates. QE was a way for central banks to buy longer term bonds to suppress long term interest rates. Essentially taking away the capitalist free market price mechanism for interest rates. We are in managed debt markets. Europe and Japan can be in negative rates because they killed their bond markets. Because of negative rates it really is the ECB or the BoJ that is at the auctions. This is why many are saying that central banks have run out of tools. They can only do QE forever and can never allow interest rates to ever normalize because it would wreak (rekt) people. This is the confidence crisis that is upcoming. Soon markets will realize that central banks are stuck. That QE, which was a desperate policy to prevent another 1920's-30's like global depression, is now the norm and will continue forever because it did not actually work for the recovery. Central banks need to keep this system propped, meaning rates will be dropping. When I checked the yield curve today, the inversion is coming back. I am expecting a rate cut to happen well before the market expectations of a cut in Fall of 2020. So where do you go in this type of macro environment? Where do you go in a risk off environment? Gold is looking pretty attractive...
TVC:US10Y
by Uncharted-FX
DAX30 - Market Crash Cycles | Indices | Macro Trends*Please support this idea with a LIKE if it helps you. Thanks! More details about me in my signature. DAX30 has been labeled within a Sub-Millennium degree wave 5 (blue), which has been unfolding ever since the 2009 bottom, when the Recession ceased. Structure - Ending Diagonal 2009 lows and up until Apr 2015 peak - Grand Super-Cycle I (green) Apr 2015 peak and down until Feb 2016 lows - Grand Super-Cycle II (green) Feb 2016 lows and up until Nov 2017 extremes - Grand Super-Cycle III (green) Nov 2017 extremes and down until Dec 2018 - Grand Super-Cycle IV (green) Grand Super-Cycle V (green) Pattern - Ending Diagonal Overshoot Sequence - ABC Sequence within Super-Cycle Waves (A)(B)(C) (purple) Current Position Super-Cycle Wave (A) (purple) Next expected swing Bearish sequence in Super-Cycle Wave (B) (purple) Market Crash Forecast Support granted at or around the 11500.00 mark and then a huge rally towards the 15000.00 levels, where Sub-Millennium 5 (blue) is expected to complete.Sub-Millennium Waves ABC (red) would reflect the next Larger Degree Recession. Structure change Breach of the lower trend-line of the Ending Diagonal could reflect the fact that the Market Crash already started.
INDEX:DEU40
by EW4X
4
EURUSD HEAD AND SHOULDERS The fundamental bias for this pair is still currently down. As this year commences there will be a lot of uncertainty as the EURUSD reaches a fresh new 3 year low. There are no guarantees of an up move just yet, but the declines are getting weaker and it looks like the bears are running out of steam. In my previous analysis (link below) I posted that the pair will soon rise, but price never reached my entry so I stood short. There needs to be a major economic announcement in either economies to build enough momentum before we see a rise. Until then I will stay short another 160 pips until this head and shoulders pattern fulfills its target.
Short
by bajapips
SPX500 - Market Crash Cycles | Indices | Macro Trends*Please support this idea with a LIKE if it helps you. Thanks! More details about me in my signature. SPX500 has been labeled within a Grand Super-Cycle degree wave V (blue), which has been unfolding ever since the 2009 bottom, when the Recession ended. Structure - Bullish Impulse 2009 lows and up until Apr 2010 highs - Super-Cycle (I) (green) Apr 2010 highs and down July 2010 lows - Super-Cycle (II) (green) July 2010 lows and all the way up until Oct 2018 extreme - Super-Cycle (III) (green) Oct 2018 extreme and sharp drops until Dec 2018 - Super-Cycle (IV) (green) Super-Cycle (V) (green) Pattern - Reversal Motive Wave Sequence - 5-Wave Sequence within an Ending Diagonal Current Position Cycle Wave I (black) Next expected swing Bearish sequence in Cycle Wave II (black) Market Crash Forecast Support granted at or around the 2700.00 mark and then a huge rally towards the 3500.00 levels, where Grand Super-Cycle V (blue) is expected to complete. Super-Cycle Waves (A)(B)(C) (red) would reflect the next Larger Degree Recession. Structure change Breach of the 2700.00 levels could lead towards a prolonged corrective structure and a Market Crash already starting.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by EW4X
5
US30 - Market Crash Cycles | Indices | Macro Trends*Please support this idea with a LIKE if it helps you. Thanks! More details about me in my signature. US30 has been labeled within a Grand Super-Cycle degree wave V (blue), which has been unfolding ever since the 2009 bottom, when the Recession ended. Structure - Bullish Impulse 2009 lows and up until Apr 2010 highs - Super-Cycle (I) (green) Apr 2010 highs and down July 2010 lows - Super-Cycle (II) (green) July 2010 lows and all the way up until Oct 2018 extreme - Super-Cycle (III) (green) Oct 2018 extreme and sharp drops until Dec 2018 - Super-Cycle (IV) (green) Super-Cycle (V) (green) Pattern - Reversal Motive Wave Sequence - 5-Wave Sequence within an Ending Diagonal Current Position Cycle Wave I (black) Next expected swing Bearish sequence in Cycle Wave II (black) Market Crash Forecast Support granted at or around the 25000.00 mark and then a huge rally towards the 28500.00 levels, where Grand Super-Cycle V (blue) is expected to complete. Super-Cycle Waves (A)(B)(C) (red) would reflect the next Larger Degree Recession. Structure change Breach of the 25000.00 levels could lead towards a prolonged corrective structure and a Market Crash already starting.
TVC:DJI
by EW4X
18
Market Crash Projection using Yield Curve CyclesUsing the 10Y and 2Y US yield curves, I wanted to attempt a potential market crash timing on the Dow Jones Index. I used all available past yield curve data and found the timings of past 3 crossovers that correlated with the market. On average it took 508 days after the first 10Y-2Y crossover for the DJI to reach it's maximum value between the crossover and the bottom of the market crash that followed. Since the most recent crossover occurred on roughly Aug 26, 2019, that would put the estimate for the maximum value of the DJI to be on January 15, 2021. Following that max peak, my goal was to ultimately time the market crash, so I ran a quick logistic regression on the bottoms of each subsequent market crash from each crash's 10Y-2Y crossover. I decided on a log regression as i saw that the time that passed between of each of the past three crashes that were predicted by the yield curves was increasing, and I wanted to maintain that trend in my analysis. I found that the next BOTTOM of the market crash should be roughly 1000 days after the curve crossover, which puts the time frame around May 22, 2022 (also happens to be a Monday #BlackMonday1987). This is by no means thorough and mainly just to put a different perspective on how one could use the yield curves to forecast a financial slowdown using the past as an example. TVC:DJI TVC:US10Y TVC:US02Y
TVC:US10Y
by shack4
1
Interesting Channel PointsI have been using the drawing tools in a different way today, more to see what the vertices of the confirmation points along that channel would express when I made infinite horizontal and vertical lines radiating from all of them. What is pretty obvious is that silver is in a long term upward trend according the the lowest points along the channel where there are enough to indicate a strong trend. Along the top of the channel there are even more confirmation points, as well as a good number of points within the channel that also confirm the same upward trend. What I've found interesting is the concentration of the horizontal lines showing that the price action is heading toward a heavily resisted level at around the 18.67 area (give or take) made visible by the concentration of those horizontal blue dotted lines there. The first time XAG crossed this line (more of a "zone" if you look closely) was in '08 and it didn't last terribly long. It flirted with it for two years and then really broke through for the big rally in Aug of '10. It stayed above until Sept of '14, peaked above very briefly in Aug of 16, and today we're knocking on the door again. I've indicated these points with yellow ellipses. I'm inclined to think of this as a bullish indicator despite RSI indicating a higher probability of an imminent reversal. Considering all the other news in the markets, we might be looking at another big pop if people decide to use metals like silver and gold to hedge a decline in dollar strength . If anyone happens to see this and has any insight, please let me know!
FX:XAGUSDLong
by Incogniteaux
Using TIME FIBONACCI to predict the next MARKET CRASHUsing TIME FIBONACCI to connect the crash of 2000 (DOT COM BUBBLE) and the crash of 2008 (HOUSING MARKET BUBBLE) we get a warning sign signaling to August 2019 at 2.5 Fibonacci being a significant date in the stock market and also June 2020 being a significant date as well at 2.618 Fib It's either the beginning of the crash or the end of the crash and an entry point for investors. For more info and free education, visit www.TopTradingSignals.us
SP:SPXShort
by hustler101
2