Key Levels and Market overview for the Asian session open 22/02A review of the price action from the European session and recap of US price action as US indexes followed on from weakness in Asian and European trade. I remain of the view that data is still showing 'sticky inflation' which eventually leads to higher interest rates and lower spending which will cap the indexes as we can see from the selloff. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out.
Markets covered :-
DOW
Nasdaq
DAX
FTSE
ASX200
Hang Seng
USD Index
Gold
Oil
Copper
Marketcrash
BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS - Are we entering recession ? As we can how the markets have been respecting these Major support and resistances since years covering every major crash .
We can see that currently we are testing the resistance and showing possible signs of rejection which makes me think that the markets have topped out and might become bearish from now on .
On the other hand , It will be very bullish if we break above this resistance level , which I know we will break in upcoming years .
News comes later . charts always speaks first .
Things to keep in Mind :-
Wars going on
Inflation Rates
Increasing Taxes
Fed is extremely hawkish .
All of these might led to the capitulation event soon .
Remarkable similarities to February2020 & August-September 2008 The current rollover in the market, featuring a clear double top with negative RSI divergence, is remarkably similar to the February 2020 & August-September 2008 rollovers. My opinion is that the current rollover will resolve with a large move to the downside in similar fashion to the aforementioned time periods.
AMD might visit earth and witness deathThere are two scenarios I am considering in AMD
1. Bull Case:- They come up with good er then it might push upto 68ish area and complete the w4-5
2. Bear case:- Er is bad then bear flag might get triggered and flush upto 48 area.
Regardless of ER, I think one more fresh low will be made in AMD.
AAPL/Apple, hold on to your butts In this idea I love how easy this is to see what is about to happen here. Real simple pattern. I don't trade stocks, but I can see the patterns in any chart. If you agree throw me a like and follow me for more charts and concepts that keep you in the gains. Much Love to my Supporters ND
SPY similarities with 2009 up to current 3600 decision zoneSPY In this 2009 weekly chart, we saw the ff:
1) dma 50 x dma200 (deathcross) also wma20x50
2) price created a low, then bounced up to retest dma200 (wma50) but was rejected down
3) price went down back to retest that low. (The present low was the June low around 3636, a major decision point)
MAJOR RISK AHEAD: Now we have to see this week if SPY will recover 3636. (A slightly lower low may happen probably to 3500 to create a divergence for an oversold bounce)
*a 2009 scenario repeat will see SPY just waterfall thru 3500 to next supports at 3400/3200/3000/2800
*wma 50 will then cross wma200 (deathcross on weekly)
Not trading advice. Proceed with extreme caution!
How we predicted the S&P Crash 6 months agoOn April 23rd 2022, we posted this chart stating that the S&P would hit 3320 for a completion of a harmonic pattern. At that time S&P was at 4297 and today is it at 3585.
How did we see this coming?
1) There was a massive reversal sign on the weekly timeframe showing that it had topped at 45xx.
2) The huge harmonic pattern setting up
3) Massive divergence on the weekly chart
What is the call for the next 6 months?
When you look at the chart, there is an imbalance between the move up (18 months) and the drop 8 months. This would mean there is more pain to come for those who still believe in stocks and this index will continue to drop and it may drop sharply.
Here is what I would call.
1) S&P will continue to fall and find support at around 3255.
2) This will be a good place to buy but with a mindset of selling.
3) The price will bounce between 3255 and 3500 and then eventually break below.
4) April 2023 we will be around 2900 -3000.
Until there is clear reversal signs on the Weekly chart, I will not call this market bullish which is likely to take another 12-18 months.
Would love your thoughts and comments.
DOW JONES - Signal That We Haven't Seen Since the Crash of 2008Dow Jones Index has showed a monthly signal not seen since 2008.
The price action that has currently developed is very similar to the beginning of the 2008 crash. In fact, the next rally (if we get one) can be the final "make or break". See the chart comparison between 2008 and 2022. I'm not a perma-bear nor do I ever like predicting crashes or waiting around for one. However, the technical setup with the current inflation and aggressive FED rate policy can be just what it takes to crush this market.
TECHNICALS:
The monthly histogram has fired negative for the first time since July of 2008 and is also in a volatility squeeze (John Carter...). The squeeze tends to fire in the direction of the primary trend. Yet unless the macro picture changes (i.e. FED reverses course, etc), it appears the squeeze is already beginning to fire SHORT. I'm anticipating another 40% lower from where we are now, that is using the same projection from the crash of 2008.
Now, a lot can change and the macro picture is very different from that of 2008.
A lot of people will buy the next leg up in this BEAR TREND hoping to have nailed the bottom. It will be those buyers who will end up capitulating and puking the market when it catches them off guard.
Word of advice - be very cautious on going "all in" on this next counter rally. The market is in a massive squeeze. (similar theme will apply to other indices)
OANDA:US30USD
SP:SPX
NASDAQ:QQQ
AMEX:DIA
Stay safe all and God bless.
SPY at $320-$310
AMEX:SPY
Let me explain why is everyone is talking about SPY going to $320-$310 levels.
From a pure technical point of view.We have hit $320 support levels three times.June 2020, Sep 2020 and Oct 2020. So this is a natural support level .
From an Elliott point of view we are in a WXY correction, more precisely in minor wave A of (Y). And the most common Fibonacci ratio for a WXY correction is equality, and that will occur at $312.
More downward movement for BTC ?Market seems falling part , things can change in an instance , keeping this in mind the current structure shows it wants to go lower.
Now removing the bias and inverting the chart you can notice like in an up trending market , that this is the 5th time BTC is tapping the $18,500 support level . Which in the case we lose the support the next three levels I will be looking at are the following :
$17,500
$16,000
$12,500
NASDAQ TARGET 11541!!, MARK IT. i have made a detailed analysis, that why Nasdaq is falling, and based on different corrections, bear markets and from various crashes, i have made the support and resistance, which determines the supply zone. finally, the markets will not face any crash such, the Nasdaq is just falling because of the hike of interest rates, thats much. people and institutions are moving out from the markets, making the index to get corrected, and this selling pressure, is basically preventing from a huge crash(when the government will such announce hike in interest rates, in some future, just to correct the markets that far).
so analytically, this selling pressure, is making the index to correct itself and preventing it from going in crash.
How to trade AUDUSD after the massive crash?Yesterday was the biggest sell off on the US equities in over 2 years.
We caught a great sell on SPX and also AUDUSD.
The market is recovering from the big sell off. I see a chance to buy AUDUSD with a very tight stop loss below 0.6705.
There is a harmonic pattern with M15 and M30 divergence.