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Why Russell Index the most Reflective for Bank Run Crisis?Russell represents the true economy of United States. There are 2,000 medium size companies with each value between $300m to $2b. The index includes a diverse range of companies from various sectors, including financials, healthcare, consumer goods, industrials, and technology. In my opinion Russell represents the true economy of united states. If the bank run crisis deepens, it is possible that 2,000 companies will not hold up well. The reasons for this are stated in the video. This could affect the other major indices, with the Russell 2000 potentially leading the pack. The Russell 2000 is considered more reflective of the US economy compared to the other major indices with big names like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft. E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures & Option Outright: 0.10 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures Outright: 0.10 index points = $0.50 Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures & Option Outright: 0.25 index points = $1.25 Micro E-mini Nasdaq Index Futures & Option Outright: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Micro E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Futures Outright: 1.0 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by konhow
18
The Deflationary SpiralAll credit booms brought about by Central Bank-induced artificially low interest rates and loose lending standards end in busts. In the recessionary phase that follows the boom, credit becomes much harder to attain and many over-leveraged businesses end up going bankrupt. The recessionary phase reveals the malinvestments and unsound business decisions that were made during the economic boom. Businesses & Consumers deleverage their balance sheets either through paying down debt or through bankruptcy. As loan demand falls & credit conditions tighten, debt issuance falls, which reduces the supply of money into the economy because the vast majority of currency that enters the economy is loaned into existence. When credit growths slows and begins contracting alongside a falling money supply, inventory piles up and profits & margins fall while consumer spending falls. Businesses are then forced to sell at discounted rates to liquidate inventory in anticipation of weak future demand, which further reduces profits & margins and leads to increased unemployment and weaker levels of consumption. The “Deflationary Spiral” subsides and an economic recovery can take place once balance sheets are back to healthy levels which can support debt accumulation, capital investment recovers, and once large amounts of the “bad” debts taken on during the economic boom have been deleveraged. US M2 Money Supply is currently down -4.2% YoY using March 2023 data, the largest monetary contraction in the USA since the Great Depression. Using data going back to 1870, every time the money supply contracted by over 1% YoY the stock market had a large correction and the economy fell into a severe & lengthy contraction with unemployment reaching at least 7%. A banking panic always accompanied those contractions as well. Commercial bank deposits are currently down around -5% YoY, the most since the Great Depression. Total commercial bank deposits didn’t even contract during the early 1990s Savings & Loan Crisis. With money supply shrinking and the majority of banks unable to pay competitive rates on deposits, deposits will continue falling and more bank failures will occur. The large amounts of unrealized losses on bank balance sheets represent another impediment to loan growth and banks have continued to raise reserves for multiple quarters in response to rising default rates. Fed research from the Fed Bank of Saint Louis show bank lending conditions (measured by percentage of banks tightening lending conditions) are comparable to early 2008 & late 2000. Bank lending conditions are a leading indicator for unemployment. The unemployment rate currently is still below 4%, but with the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators index currently at -7.2% and the bond yield curve still inverted, many reliable economic datapoints show that the economy is closer to the beginning of this business cycle downturn and debt deleveraging than the end. Yield curve inversions & Conference Board LEI’s have been some of the best leading indicators for a recession since the 1970s. Since 1968, any Conference Board LEI contraction of more than -2% YoY has never yielded a false positive in regards to a coming recession. The Credit Managers’ Index newly released data for April showed that the index for rejection of new credit applications (within the service sector) was 45.9, its lowest level since March 2009. The US Consumer is beginning to run dry on savings. The majority of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and consumer credit growth (which had been expanding rapidly in 2022) has slowed markedly. Total consumer credit growth has fallen about 50% YoY (using the 3 month average of data from December - February). After falling below 3.2% in the summer of 2022, the US savings rate is still low by historic standards, currently 5.1%. Announced job cuts for the month of March were 89.7K, higher than the first 3 months of the 2008 recession. US large corporate bankruptcy filings (Bankruptcies of companies with over $50M in liabilities) from Jan-April totaled 70, seven more than during the same length of time in 2008. Student loan debt payments are set to resume again this summer, which will further reduce consumer spending. US Consumer sentiment levels measured by University of Michigan hit the lowest levels ever (going back to 1952) in the summer of 2022, and they have been fluctuating around 2H 2008 & 1H 2009 levels ever since. Delinquency rates on things like automobiles, credit cards, and commercial real estate loans are soaring. Cox Automotive found 1.89% of auto loans in January were "severely delinquent" and at least 60 days behind payment, the highest rate since the data series began in 2006. In March, the percentage of subprime auto borrowers who were at least 60 days late on their bills was 5.3%, up from a seven-year low of 2.58% in May 2021 and higher than in 2009, the peak of the financial crisis, according to data from Fitch Ratings. Retail sales are an economic metric that track consumer demand for finished goods. US real retail sales down -2.1% and EU real retail sales are -9.9%. German real retail sales for the month of march just came in at -15.8% YoY! According to Bloomberg, Global PC shipments are down close to 30% YoY & Apple computer shipments are down about 40% YoY. In the past 50 years, US Gross fixed capital formation has only gone negative in the US before and during recessions. It is now negative and there has never been a false positive. Data from the Mortgage bankers association showed a -39% YoY decline in Mortgage purchase applications, a decline to its lowest levels in over 26 years. US Building Permits are down -24% YoY. Housing Starts YoY are down -17% YoY. Existing Home Sales are down -22%. Every national housing downturn in the past 45 years has taken at least 4 years from peak to trough prices, indicating that the current housing downturn is likely to continue for at least 2-3 years. Every FED Regional bank report on manufacturing (using a 3 month average of the data) is in a contraction. The April Philadelphia FED Manufacturing index came in at -31.3. Since 1969, Every reading under -30 was either in a recession or a few months away from one. April Richmond FED Service Sector Index registered a -23, the same number as in Nov 2008 & Feb 2009 & worse than Jan 2009 which was -20 (August and September 2008 were -10 for reference). US manufacturing production is down -.5% YoY. March 2023 ISM PMI data was also very insightful. USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (March) was 46.3, its lowest level since June 2009 (excl. H1 2020). For reference, in the 08 recession, it wasn’t until October 2008 that the ISM manufacturing PMI fell under 46.3, over 9 months into that recession. USA ISM Manufacturing New Orders (March) was 44.3, its lowest level since March 2009 (excl. January 2023 & H1 2020), USA ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (March) came in at 51.2, its lowest level since Jan. 2010 (excl. H1 2020). The US Stock market is trading at one of the highest Shiller PE ratios & stock market capitalization to GDP ratios in history. Present day stock market valuations are rivaled only by the Roaring 20s Bubble (1929), The Nifty-Fifty Bubble (late 1960s/early 1970s) & the 1999/2000 Dot-com Bubble. All 3 of those examples were followed by the most negative 10 year real returns in USA stock market history going back to 1913. Over 40% of businesses in the Russell2000 are unprofitable and over 1/5 of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Clearly, the stock markets as of April 2023 are still in bubble levels of overvaluation. Looking at the data in aggregate, I believe that a recession is currently occurring. Assuming earnings fall by about 30% peak to trough, using a conservative average from the past 4 US recessions, I assume S&P annualized earnings will fall to around 155. Using a conservative valuation multiple of 14, that gives a target price of about 2,200 for the S&P500 that is likely to be hit in Q4 2023 or 2024. Thank you for reading, Alexander Charles Lambert
AMEX:RSPShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
COIN Coinbase potential Sell-Off !!!If you haven`t bought COIN puts here: Or sold it here: Then you should know that COIN Coinbase was more than a client of Silicon Valley Bank, and the relationship between the two companies was more than just a client-provider one. Back in 2014, when cryptocurrency projects and businesses affiliated with crypto struggled to secure financing from traditional sources, Coinbase gave a stock warrant to Silicon Valley Bank. This was part of an agreement between the two companies, which allowed Coinbase to use the bank's services. The warrant gave the bank the option to buy more than 400,000 shares of Coinbase's class B common stock for slightly over $1 each. The warrant was valid until June 2024, but it is unclear what its status is currently. However, Silicon Valley Bank's latest annual report to the Securities and Exchange Commission revealed that the bank earned $116 million in gains "related to Coinbase's direct listing" in 2021. Coinbase has also paused conversions between USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar) and US dollars, due to the ongoing banking crisis that has affected the crypto industry. Circle, which backs USDC, confirmed that $3.3 billion of the $40 billion supporting its stablecoin was deposited at Silicon Valley Bank. Following the bank's seizure by the FDIC, the fate of that cash is uncertain, and USDC's dollar peg has been lost temporarily. It remains unclear what Coinbase's exposure to USDC is at this time. Considering the chart, my Price Target for COIN Coinbase is $34, for a potential Double Bottom. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
NASDAQ:COINShort
by TopgOptions
1
Key Levels and Market overview for the Asian session open 22/02A review of the price action from the European session and recap of US price action as US indexes followed on from weakness in Asian and European trade. I remain of the view that data is still showing 'sticky inflation' which eventually leads to higher interest rates and lower spending which will cap the indexes as we can see from the selloff. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
2
BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS - Are we entering recession ? As we can how the markets have been respecting these Major support and resistances since years covering every major crash . We can see that currently we are testing the resistance and showing possible signs of rejection which makes me think that the markets have topped out and might become bearish from now on . On the other hand , It will be very bullish if we break above this resistance level , which I know we will break in upcoming years . News comes later . charts always speaks first . Things to keep in Mind :- Wars going on Inflation Rates Increasing Taxes Fed is extremely hawkish . All of these might led to the capitulation event soon .
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by BULLSTREETZONE
SPY similarities with 2009 up to current 3600 decision zoneSPY In this 2009 weekly chart, we saw the ff: 1) dma 50 x dma200 (deathcross) also wma20x50 2) price created a low, then bounced up to retest dma200 (wma50) but was rejected down 3) price went down back to retest that low. (The present low was the June low around 3636, a major decision point) MAJOR RISK AHEAD: Now we have to see this week if SPY will recover 3636. (A slightly lower low may happen probably to 3500 to create a divergence for an oversold bounce) *a 2009 scenario repeat will see SPY just waterfall thru 3500 to next supports at 3400/3200/3000/2800 *wma 50 will then cross wma200 (deathcross on weekly) Not trading advice. Proceed with extreme caution!
AMEX:SPY
by xtremerider8
How we predicted the S&P Crash 6 months agoOn April 23rd 2022, we posted this chart stating that the S&P would hit 3320 for a completion of a harmonic pattern. At that time S&P was at 4297 and today is it at 3585. How did we see this coming? 1) There was a massive reversal sign on the weekly timeframe showing that it had topped at 45xx. 2) The huge harmonic pattern setting up 3) Massive divergence on the weekly chart What is the call for the next 6 months? When you look at the chart, there is an imbalance between the move up (18 months) and the drop 8 months. This would mean there is more pain to come for those who still believe in stocks and this index will continue to drop and it may drop sharply. Here is what I would call. 1) S&P will continue to fall and find support at around 3255. 2) This will be a good place to buy but with a mindset of selling. 3) The price will bounce between 3255 and 3500 and then eventually break below. 4) April 2023 we will be around 2900 -3000. Until there is clear reversal signs on the Weekly chart, I will not call this market bullish which is likely to take another 12-18 months. Would love your thoughts and comments.
SP:SPXShort
by JD_TeenTrader
1
DOW JONES - Signal That We Haven't Seen Since the Crash of 2008Dow Jones Index has showed a monthly signal not seen since 2008. The price action that has currently developed is very similar to the beginning of the 2008 crash. In fact, the next rally (if we get one) can be the final "make or break". See the chart comparison between 2008 and 2022. I'm not a perma-bear nor do I ever like predicting crashes or waiting around for one. However, the technical setup with the current inflation and aggressive FED rate policy can be just what it takes to crush this market. TECHNICALS: The monthly histogram has fired negative for the first time since July of 2008 and is also in a volatility squeeze (John Carter...). The squeeze tends to fire in the direction of the primary trend. Yet unless the macro picture changes (i.e. FED reverses course, etc), it appears the squeeze is already beginning to fire SHORT. I'm anticipating another 40% lower from where we are now, that is using the same projection from the crash of 2008. Now, a lot can change and the macro picture is very different from that of 2008. A lot of people will buy the next leg up in this BEAR TREND hoping to have nailed the bottom. It will be those buyers who will end up capitulating and puking the market when it catches them off guard. Word of advice - be very cautious on going "all in" on this next counter rally. The market is in a massive squeeze. (similar theme will apply to other indices) OANDA:US30USD SP:SPX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA Stay safe all and God bless.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by andremkv
NASDAQ TARGET 11541!!, MARK IT. i have made a detailed analysis, that why Nasdaq is falling, and based on different corrections, bear markets and from various crashes, i have made the support and resistance, which determines the supply zone. finally, the markets will not face any crash such, the Nasdaq is just falling because of the hike of interest rates, thats much. people and institutions are moving out from the markets, making the index to get corrected, and this selling pressure, is basically preventing from a huge crash(when the government will such announce hike in interest rates, in some future, just to correct the markets that far). so analytically, this selling pressure, is making the index to correct itself and preventing it from going in crash.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by raghavchoudhary2016
2