Marketcrash
SPY similarities with 2009 up to current 3600 decision zoneSPY In this 2009 weekly chart, we saw the ff:
1) dma 50 x dma200 (deathcross) also wma20x50
2) price created a low, then bounced up to retest dma200 (wma50) but was rejected down
3) price went down back to retest that low. (The present low was the June low around 3636, a major decision point)
MAJOR RISK AHEAD: Now we have to see this week if SPY will recover 3636. (A slightly lower low may happen probably to 3500 to create a divergence for an oversold bounce)
*a 2009 scenario repeat will see SPY just waterfall thru 3500 to next supports at 3400/3200/3000/2800
*wma 50 will then cross wma200 (deathcross on weekly)
Not trading advice. Proceed with extreme caution!
How we predicted the S&P Crash 6 months agoOn April 23rd 2022, we posted this chart stating that the S&P would hit 3320 for a completion of a harmonic pattern. At that time S&P was at 4297 and today is it at 3585.
How did we see this coming?
1) There was a massive reversal sign on the weekly timeframe showing that it had topped at 45xx.
2) The huge harmonic pattern setting up
3) Massive divergence on the weekly chart
What is the call for the next 6 months?
When you look at the chart, there is an imbalance between the move up (18 months) and the drop 8 months. This would mean there is more pain to come for those who still believe in stocks and this index will continue to drop and it may drop sharply.
Here is what I would call.
1) S&P will continue to fall and find support at around 3255.
2) This will be a good place to buy but with a mindset of selling.
3) The price will bounce between 3255 and 3500 and then eventually break below.
4) April 2023 we will be around 2900 -3000.
Until there is clear reversal signs on the Weekly chart, I will not call this market bullish which is likely to take another 12-18 months.
Would love your thoughts and comments.
DOW JONES - Signal That We Haven't Seen Since the Crash of 2008Dow Jones Index has showed a monthly signal not seen since 2008.
The price action that has currently developed is very similar to the beginning of the 2008 crash. In fact, the next rally (if we get one) can be the final "make or break". See the chart comparison between 2008 and 2022. I'm not a perma-bear nor do I ever like predicting crashes or waiting around for one. However, the technical setup with the current inflation and aggressive FED rate policy can be just what it takes to crush this market.
TECHNICALS:
The monthly histogram has fired negative for the first time since July of 2008 and is also in a volatility squeeze (John Carter...). The squeeze tends to fire in the direction of the primary trend. Yet unless the macro picture changes (i.e. FED reverses course, etc), it appears the squeeze is already beginning to fire SHORT. I'm anticipating another 40% lower from where we are now, that is using the same projection from the crash of 2008.
Now, a lot can change and the macro picture is very different from that of 2008.
A lot of people will buy the next leg up in this BEAR TREND hoping to have nailed the bottom. It will be those buyers who will end up capitulating and puking the market when it catches them off guard.
Word of advice - be very cautious on going "all in" on this next counter rally. The market is in a massive squeeze. (similar theme will apply to other indices)
OANDA:US30USD
SP:SPX
NASDAQ:QQQ
AMEX:DIA
Stay safe all and God bless.
SPY at $320-$310
AMEX:SPY
Let me explain why is everyone is talking about SPY going to $320-$310 levels.
From a pure technical point of view.We have hit $320 support levels three times.June 2020, Sep 2020 and Oct 2020. So this is a natural support level .
From an Elliott point of view we are in a WXY correction, more precisely in minor wave A of (Y). And the most common Fibonacci ratio for a WXY correction is equality, and that will occur at $312.
More downward movement for BTC ?Market seems falling part , things can change in an instance , keeping this in mind the current structure shows it wants to go lower.
Now removing the bias and inverting the chart you can notice like in an up trending market , that this is the 5th time BTC is tapping the $18,500 support level . Which in the case we lose the support the next three levels I will be looking at are the following :
$17,500
$16,000
$12,500
NASDAQ TARGET 11541!!, MARK IT. i have made a detailed analysis, that why Nasdaq is falling, and based on different corrections, bear markets and from various crashes, i have made the support and resistance, which determines the supply zone. finally, the markets will not face any crash such, the Nasdaq is just falling because of the hike of interest rates, thats much. people and institutions are moving out from the markets, making the index to get corrected, and this selling pressure, is basically preventing from a huge crash(when the government will such announce hike in interest rates, in some future, just to correct the markets that far).
so analytically, this selling pressure, is making the index to correct itself and preventing it from going in crash.
How to trade AUDUSD after the massive crash?Yesterday was the biggest sell off on the US equities in over 2 years.
We caught a great sell on SPX and also AUDUSD.
The market is recovering from the big sell off. I see a chance to buy AUDUSD with a very tight stop loss below 0.6705.
There is a harmonic pattern with M15 and M30 divergence.
SPY bulltrap again bef plunge;BO of 400/380 may see 350/320/280This is a SPY weekly chart after the Friday FED speech signaling continued hawkishness till inflation drops to 2%. Spy has a history of making bulltraps (higher highs on this weekly chart) before plunging as seen in my several boxes. It was rejected by the black downtrend line from the 476.44 ATH (see black falling wedge) & also rejected by the horizontal neckline of the H&S from top at around 330.
BULLISH SCENARIO: If 362.17 June low is the bottom for this ABC correction, then SPY should make a higher low at either the psychological 400 or 380 (previous H&S destination & also the maximum Fib 0.786 retracement of the latest June rally). From here a new ATH is coming in 4Q2022 when inflation drops lower that 4% & the FED pivots.
BEARISH CASE: SPY will not hold the 362.17 low if 400 & 380 fails. The final targets of this ABC correction may be the ff:
*350 which is the 1.618 FIB EXT of this ABC, the 0.50 retracement from pandemic low to ATH
*320 which is the 2.0 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.618 retracement from pandemic to ATH & also near the 0.382 retracement from 2009 bottom to ATH
*280 which is the 2.618 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.786 retracement from pandemic low to ATH & also near the 0.5 retracement from 2009 Bottom to ATH
These estimates should be considered as +/- zones & not exact levels. The pandemic low of 211.11 is not
likely to be retested.
Not trading advice
W.D Gann's 1929 stock market prediction compared to the BTCI have noticed that William Delbert Gann's stock market prediction of 1929 could be very similar to Bitcoin's current price movement and decided to make a comparison. The result was shocking! Gann managed to predict the crash of 1929, also called as "Great Crash" years in advance.
Calm Before the storm on NASDAQ Hi Traders,
Nasdaq (NDX) Has been consolidating for a few weeks just below 12200. Price has revisited this point multiple times and has failed to push further. Looking at price action we have a clear untested resistance at 12545 Which I believe has a very high probability of being hit.
Understand that this is also an order block and I am more than happy to place a pending order at the entry price. The large consolidation range just below my point of entry leads me to believe that eventually, we will have a break out to the upside above 12200 which will surely induce a lot of buyers in the market. If this does happen I believe after hitting the resistance price of 12545 there will be a high probability of price rejecting and then Tanking to new lows. Liquidity will have been grabbed from buyers buying the break out as well as sellers who are currently short.
Now keep in mind that this is only part of my experience in trading and I have seen this move play out multiple times before, It does not have to happen the way I plan it. But I am willing to wait and see if it happens, My pending order will only be set if we do get a break out of price above 12200.
If you remember a post of mine a while back where I tie in the recession into what I think will happen according to the state of the global economy I would say that this could definitely be the move to Fuel the expected Market crash.
Let's see how this plays out.
Renaldo Philander.
BTC at important level !!! #BTC 1D zoomed out view
- 19k acting as major support which is coming from 2017 highs.
- If bounces here at 19k the next stop probably would be the 28-30k resistance region which was significant support previously now flipped into resistance.
- Losing the 19-17.5k support region will trigger more downside move till 12k
Oracle: No end in sight for the pain!Oracle
Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 68.29 (stop at 71.31)
The primary trend remains bearish. A sequence of daily lower lows and highs has been posted. We can see no technical reason for a change of trend. We expect an initial move higher to fail and look to set shorts on a break back through 68.50.
Our profit targets will be 60.09 and 58.00
Resistance: 71.50 / 74.00 / 82.00
Support: 60.00 / 56.00 / 44.00
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NVDA predictionHey all, I'm noticing many market-moving names are repeating the redistribution patterns they made leading up to the fakeout rallies and subsequent moves lower in March of this year(Namely AAPL , MSFT , AMZN ). I think NVDA is setting up beautifully for a rally higher back near the $210 zone where I fully expect it to reject and breach new lows in a violent manner. Considering the cyclical and overvalued nature of NVDA and semiconductors(which are still relatively high up), it would be no surprise to me if it were to see its pre-pandemic values well before year-end.
Disclaimer: I think we're at the end of a market cycle and are currently in a redistribution phase before the market heads to new lows(in the midst of a crash)
NDX 100 WARNING: ABC wave C may reach 10500 or even 9500Since last week I have been warning that there will be a short oversold rally after FED testimonies in Congress & Senate but the worst is not yet over despite retailers rushing to buy the dip & exchanges trying very hard to keep BTC above the impt 20k in order to prevent mass selling.
NDX Nasdaq 100 has been making a downchannel since it turned down after completing wave B @15265. The most probable support is at 10500, which is a 36% crash from ATH. 10500 (double my yellow box) is also a confluence of the 0.618 retracement from pandemic low to ATH & the weekly wma200 level. If 10500 fails then the pre-pandemic top @9500 will be the maximum pain, which is a 42% drop from ATH of 16764.
After ABC ends, the target levels for take profit will be 12k & 13k respectively indicated by blue arrows.
Not trading advice