$NQ Top is In on the 1M - $9007$NQ top is clearly in on the 1M chart. Bearish engulfing candle with key resistances needing to be retested. The global economic picture is becoming more gloomy as the US defaults on its debt for the first time ever this winter (2021).
As an investor and avid study of the markets, I look for value buys with high probabilities of long term triple digit returns. I will look to back the truck up in $NQ at $9007, until then every bounce is just a distraction.
- PennyBags
CME_MINI:NQ1!
Marketcrash
The Great Economic/Financial CollapseFor over a year i have been posting charts on why i think the stock market is going to crash over 80%. I've posted charts for a while talking about how the stock market will top out at 36k and well, so far it looks like im right. we have seen the stock market top out/consolidate around the 36k level.
i think this consolidation should be a warning to all. right now markets are looking extremely bearish and i will show you why.
before i do show you multiple examples on why i think the greatest financial/ economic collapse is right around the corner.
(here are the previous charts i have posted)
this is a chart showing similarity to the Great Depression
this is the second chart. here it shows the steps markets will make and during the crash. (here are the steps with explanation)
phases/key: phase 1: first sell of/ bear trap (this is kind of a trick that tricks investors)
phase 2: media attention/ greed (this is when the media starts talking about all time highs/ how markets are overvalued)
phase 3:delusion/ parabolic move (this is when people start thinking that markets will not crash and they also think this is the start of a new bull market)
phase 4: denial/ start of bull trap( this is when investors are delesonal and think that this is just a small sell off and they think it will continue to go up)
phase 5: return to normal/ end of bull trap (this is when investors think that markets are starting to recover from that "small" sell off)
phase 6: fear (this is when investors see that markets won't go up just yet so they start to pull out sending markets into a small free fall)
phase 7: capitulation/ retest (this is when markets continue to sell off sharply) (expect a 40% retest)
phase 8: despair/retest (this is when markets start to go into another sharp sell off plus 10%+ retests of strong future resistance)
phase 9: return to mean (this is when we will come back up to the mean level of the market)
phase 10: leg down (this is another sharp sell off/ leg down. this is when we will retest lows) (8k should be the low)
phase 11: recovery (this is when we start our recovery phase. markets will take 5 or 10 years to recover from this giant collapse)
on this chart i posted why i thought the stock market was going to crash/patterns. (here are the patterns i listed)
1. bearish divergence
2. market is overvalued
3. price is about to hit the 618 fib level ( 36k )
^^ these are some of the patterns we are still seeing today. we are seeing markets are overvalued + patterns like rising wedges/channels
this is the last chart i posted about the crash.
here i talked about divergence happening in the market and why i think it will crash.
now that i have listed that i will list my other reasons why i think markets will crash.
1. equities vs commodities
marketcap.com.au
as you can see on this chart, we are reaching dangerous levels. last time we were at these levels we had 2 major crashes.
2. private debt
static.seekingalpha.com
on this chart you can see the amount of private debt is at at(almost) an ATH. this is something you should keep an eye out since last time private debt was this high the 2008 financial crisis took place.
3. S&P vs real earning yield
twitter.com
this is a good one! as you can see on this chart we have seen that every time we go into negative territory a market crash occurs. right now it is the lowest it has ever been which should be something you need to look at.
4. US profit margin vs linear trend and deviation from linear trend in %
miro.medium.com
on this chart you can see that the % on this chart is again at a new ATH. this is not good since every time we get a huge spike in it we end up getting a recession (show on chart)
5. buffet indicator
miro.medium.com
ATH on this chart too. (note: this is a more controversial indicator)
6. Shiller P.E ratio
miro.medium.com
on this chart you can see that we are reaching dangerous zones. last time we were up in this zone the .com bubble happened.
7. S&P mean regression
miro.medium.com
on this chart we are starting to form a new ATH. last time we were in this zone the .com bubble happened.
final:
now that i have shown multiple reasons why the market will crash i will give my final take:
over the past year and so (start of covid) we have seen a lot of people get into stocks/crypto (including gme , bitcoin , and other meme coins) this is usually bearish because we have seen dumb money come in during a lot of historic crashes including: the 2001 .com bubble and the 1987 great depression. i do think that this will be one of the leading causes of the crash behind inflation .
we have seen so much "dumb money" come into markets after covid and i think this will be one of the major reasons we will crash. it seems like everyone is making money without trying.
other reasons for crash:
-covid- covid is still raging in the world. i think we will keep seeing strains that are worse causing economic fear.
-debt- national and private debt is so high eventually the bubble will burst
-dumb money- dumb money has been a problem for over 2 years and i think we will see that crash markets too.
-inflation- inflation is now at 7.5% meaning we could see the inflation bubble pop.
-Russia invades- IMPORTANT- OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WE HAVE SEEN TENSIONS RISE OVER A POSSIBLE INVASION OF UKRAINE BY RUSSIA. TOMORROW BIDEN AND PUTIN WILL HOLD A PHONE CALL MEETING AT 11 AM ET. I THINK THAT THERE WILL BE NO FINAL DECISION MADE AFTER THE PHONE CALL MEANING TENSIONS COULD STILL RISE. I PERSONALLY THINK RUSSIA WILL IN FACT INVADE UKRAINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN IT WILL MAKE MARKETS START CRASHING FAST.
the final charts:
here are some charts showing why i think markets will crash:
this is the 10yr yield. as you can see it has been forming a rising channel (bearish pattern) meaning we could see it breaking down, bring markets down with it.
this is the US10Y-US02Y. this is the yield curve. every time it goes below 0 the yield curves. the yield curve is a strong indicator for market crashes since it has predicted all of the last crashes. right now it is dropping fast and i do think it will go negative soon.
this is the US inflation. right now inflation is sitting at 7.50% which is high but i think we will go much higher. we are forming a triangle pattern that i think will break to the upside. i do think inflation will keep on rising since the US keeps printing money. if this does play out we could see 14% inflation or higher.
this is the US money supply. as you can see we have printed over 40% of the total money supply in 2 years! this should be a huge warning on why a big market crash will happen.
this chart shows the volatility in markets. over the past few months we have not seen crazy volatility but its starting to pick up. i do think it will pick up in the upcoming months causing a market crash.
conclusion:
i am sorry that this is a bit long but i do think it is important you read it well since your life could depend on it.
VIX TO THE MOONmarket crash is around the corner. fed rate hikes half a point at a time not even slowly cause they can't, taper almost finished, selling of the balance sheet. Bought a lot 40 calls october expiry when vix was at 20 because when this thing moons i will pocket 1400%. It's not complicated but ppl that buy puts everytime it moons will go broke why? Well vix is making higher highs, and higher lows, trend has changed. you see, S&P is creating a right shoulder as we speak as it couldnt break resistance, when this ungodly drop starts derivative liquidation and margin call will murder everybody well except me.
USA WILL NEVER LET HYPERINFLATION PLAY OUT BECAUSE THAT's LONG TERM DEATH OF OUT CIVILIZATION, INSTEAD THEY WILL SACRIFICE THE MARKETS FOR 20 YEARS SO WE MAY SURVIVE.
#GREATDEPRE$$ION
HOW-TO: Cosmic Cloud #1📡 INDICATOR
Cosmic Cloud
👩🏫 HOW-TO CONTENT
This how-to shows that even price movement during major events like global market crashes adhere to the indicator levels.
✅ POINTS
the price drop starts after reaching a resistance level (top-left chart) or
the price drop is confirmed by a downward breakout from one of the support levels
the 2020 stock market crash (👑) reaches its lows at various Cosmic Cloud supporting levels
🔔 USEFUL ALERTS
Resistance Channel Re-entry ↓
Basis Test ↓↑
Support Channel Entry ↓
S&P 500 - IS THIS A CRASH/ OR HEALTHY CORRECTION TO AVERAGEAbove is a chart of the S&P 500 since 1950 (adjusted in Log). The yellow line represents the mean (average) price. It is well known that price naturally gravitates towards the mean, always!
Notice how the price of the S&P 500 has not had a significant drop below the mean, since the early 1980's. It had a brief stint below trend, during the 2008 financial crisis.
Why has the S&P 500 not had a significant dip below the mean since 1980? Is it a booming economy? Is it an educated and financially literate workforce? I will talk about this in a future post. For now, I just want to pose the question and get the cogs turning. What has caused the high deviation from the mean in the past 30 years, and specifically the past 12?
I want to throw this other statistic out there. Interest rates in the 80's were around 16%. Today? The lowest they have ever been. Less than 1%.
Form your own hypotheses, and please share them. I'd love to hear your thoughts.
MARKET WONT CRASH YET BUT IT'S GETTING READY FOR THE DECLINEGreen Arrows show when price increases beyond midpoint of the band, it started a significant decline in the market. As of today, it hasn't shown that yet
Red Arrows Show that during those times of market "correction(2000,2007,2008,2018,2020) it exceeded the ATR lows to show a warning sign. Market usually corrects after this, institutions take profit on the bounce, and market increases volatility and then sells off.
QQQ Analysis Market Correction Incoming?Hello fellow traders,
Please check out my analysis of QQQ, I go over different possibilities of a market correction; how far down the market can go, and where to look for bounces. I also dive a bit into why we are seeing this type of price action.
Take a listen and let me know what you think
TOP ALERT. Russell 2000Yeah, bruh. That's a top without funny money to help the pump. Watch for a 30% fall from the highs into buy zone #1. This would officially make this a crash but there is nothing saying it will stop there. This is just a technical zone. Follow me on Twitter for more. Or don't. I don't care.
Bitcoin to hit $80,000 May 2022A brief rundown of my thought analysis.
A brief rundown of my thought analysis.
I am working from the run up starting in March 2020. Starting the first touch on the parallel channel on 28th September through to 19th July 2020 (2) and running that channel up to point (1) at around 60k gave me the trend to work with.
Since peaking at 70k we have now dropped to the bottom of that trend line point (4). Which when I zoomed out i seen the wave pattern, it’s not so much a perfect Elliot wave is it. Having said that, wave 2 did not break lower than wave (0) & wave (3) did break higher than wave (1).
At the time of publishing this 8/1/22 - 21:31pm UK time, we are trading around 41k at the bottom of the trend line. Should we break to the upside from here I would expect 5th wave to be confirmed and progress to 80k.
How I achieved 80k, was by taking a fib measure of wave (2) to (3) and transferring over to the bottom of wave (4). At the 100% mark of wave (5) we hit 80k before retracing into a corrective A,B,C pattern. Which I have worked out by testing the 50% mark in wave (A) which will then retest wave (3) before retracing to around 50k. I achieved this by again measuring the down trend with the fib. From the start of the sell off in November 2020 we first tested 50% on the fib then down to 75% to 100% where we are now, on the bottom of the trend line. My A,B,C is not as clean as that but you can see the theory behind it.
Bear market or bounce to 100k…. if the 1,3,5 a,b,c comes to fruition? If the run to 100k fails after the a,b,c my guess based on previous drops after ath’s is that it may flatten out for a while before moving up again.
I also see the H&S forming on the 1 day & 1 week, this level it quite critical to hold and trend up for this bullish scenario to succeed. If we break lower 36k range could be tested.
I am no professional by far, just showing my opinion of what I see. I would be grateful to hear your thoughts on this and/ or your own theory.
$APPS - Digital Turbine Inc. LONG setup$APPS went through a 50% correction from the last high and even closed the gap from august 31st.
If we see a bounce in the tech market I would think that $APPS might perform very well.
This is NOT a longterm hold and investment at the moment, just a swing trade, so strict profit taking is advised!
Buy In: Now
Stop Loss: we literally pick the bottom here, so the stop has to be the low of the last candle at around 46$
Take profits like you see them in the chart
₿ BITCOIN 1D ₿ : 04.DEC.2021 : $BTCThe Bitcoin's price is currently trading in the range of $ 48,000 after falling today to the range of 42K by activating Buy pending orders (Buy Limit) in these ranges with 15% growth ...
We expect market fears to diminish and emotional selling and falling prices decreases by tomorrow .
If the price closes above 49K tonight, it can then grow to 51K in the form of a correction wave . Note that the price was currently reacting positively to the golden ratio of Fibonacci (0.618), which was able to recover with this strength. If this support is lost, it could fall to the most important support range which is 36K to 38K , we will expect that buy pending orders to be activated again in this range, and consequently we will experience another amazing growth contrary to the main direction of the market (which is bearsh now). Pay attention to these price ranges and volume densities that I mention below ...
41,000$ , 40,400$ , 38,800$ , 37800$ , 36,000$
Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 04.DEC.2021
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Omicron fear?A thanksgiving not exactly calm, that of 2021, ruined by a really black Friday on the financial markets.
Omicron, the name of the new variant, is frightening.
We know that markets are driven by two main feelings, fear and euphoria. A nd it is my, our job, as traders, to stay away from both of these feelings, which do nothing but make us lose money and do the exact opposite of what should be done.
Those who know me know that I am absolutely a realistic person, I try to analyze the situation, without ever panicking at the moment, so I brilliantly overcome the coronavirus crisis, buying when everyone was selling and enduring even important drawdowns, only to be repaid.
Now, I’m certainly not saying that we are dealing with another V shape from -30% as in 2020, also because, those who have a bit of intelligence know that, given that we are talking about viruses, we will always have in front of us. of mutations, is its nature.
We must accept that we will have to live with it, using the weapons that science provides us.
Consequently, next week, considering that while I am writing to you news continues to arrive on the appearance of the variant in every European state, it is very likely that fear will continue to prevail, causing further declines, which by the way, as I have been writing for a while of time, they would be healthy.
All right but, when to buy?
And above all what?
The crux of the matter is the tightness of the vaccines to t he Omicron variant.
If, as has happened with the variants that have appeared so far, the protection is solid, then we could see a correction that could not go beyond 10-15% creating buying opportunities for a short Christmas rally.
If, on the other hand, vaccines should prove ineffective, rest assured that volatility will rise and the correction will be more marked.
Never as in these moments, you have to be calm and wait for the news.
As for the markets, I believe we will see a sudden rotation in tech stocks, digital payments, and video games. As well as obviously social networks and e-commerce.
Beware of pharmaceuticals, because they are already very inflated, except perhaps Moderna, which has just returned from an important pull-bak, and Novavax which is in the pipeline with a new vaccine.
Those who follow me know that I am already positioned on companies such as Activision, Visa, Square, Amazon and Facebook (Meta). Accumulations could arrive on these stocks if they suffer a decline caused by a general sell-off.
If we talk about accumulation for the long term, it is precisely the companies that work in tourism and which are related to oil, those that could suffer the greatest discounts and consequently the best purchasing opportunities. I’m talking about Airbnb, a company I strongly believe in, where I have an excellent average purchase price, and I will certainly buy more shares. Attention also to airlines such as Delta and American Airlines and obviously attention to ETCs on oil because a significant drop would create further buying opportunities on a commodity that has given me (and I hope you too) 100% earnings in 2021.
Possible increases in gold in the medium to long term, both from seasonality and obviously as a safe haven asset, even if during the first appearance of the covid, this was not exactly the case.
The resilience of cryptocurrencies should also be verified. Absent extremely volatile, absolutely not to be considered a safe-haven asset, has the undoubted advantage of being decorrelated from the numerous problems that can afflict traditional financial markets. There may also be a quick rotation here which could cause significant rises.
I greet you and I wish you a happy Sunday, quoting Warren Buffett because it is the wise men that we must look at in moments of emotion: “Be greedy when others are afraid and be afraid when others are greedy”
Happy trading and stay safe.
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
₿ BITCOIN 1D ₿ : 23.Nov.2021 (BTC)Well, Bitcoin could not close above 60K last night with the closing of the weekly candle and then started to fall, now if we model the previous wave, we see that the price may fall to the specified range on the chart by breaking its dynamic support. (Range 52 to 54K) If this support is lost, the price could drop as low as $ 47,700.
BTC Price Live Data
The live Bitcoin price today is $55,966.60 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $34,347,400,383 USD. We update our BTC to USD price in real-time. Bitcoin is down 6.07% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #1, with a live market cap of $1,056,676,932,090 USD. It has a circulating supply of 18,880,493 BTC coins and a max. supply of 21,000,000 BTC coins.
coinmarketcap.com
Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @Ar_M_An_4
📅 23.Nov.2021
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ To give us energy and motivation , please like and leave a comment. ❤️
BIGGEST BUBBLE EVER, EXCEPT NASDAQ HEHE BTCUSDYou just have to look at the indicators to know that there are important divergences, we are talking about time in weeks, in addition to the extreme euphoria that is right now in the markets, it may continue to rise, but you know, if something bad can happen, it will happen , Murphy's law.
if someone hate ill love it , ill love u.
Obviusly in 10 years it will be crazy, for today overvalued, sorry.
Rising wedge on 1 month chart for BTC With multiple market crashes incoming, btc has been in a constant up trend and bubble since day 1. Classic rising wedge and developing a M at the top to indicate breakdown of the pattern which will lead to break out. Remember distance of fall is usually the same distance of the back of the triangle pattern from original high and low. Inidicates a 99.5% drop at least
$QQQ Target $340The QQQ fund is looking pretty bearish here, continually making lower lows on the shorter timeframes. Today we saw rejection out of an important resistance area and also asserted ourselves below the ichimoku cloud. I am targeting the $340 dollar zone for this move, as that is the previous resistance and the 50% retracement. Good Luck!
BTC vs Tech Stock CRASH!The BIG question is whether Bitcoin crashes with a Stock Market Crash, in particular the Tech Stocks. We have an interesting chart here with the SQQQ (Bear ETF on the QQQ's) compared to the BTC price on Bitstamp. There appears to be a correlation that has been showing since May in that BTC has been basing and now breaking out to the upside. The SQQQ has been basing since May as well and has not technically broken out of the base to the upside just yet. However, if you look at our Proprietary Oscillator (Blue Dots) it is positively divergent from the SQQQ price. Our Prop Oscillator is showing that a breakout to the upside on SQQQ is imminent. Since BTC is accelerating to the upside we are expecting BTC to continue higher while the Tech Stocks Crash. The SQQQ chart (without BTC overlay) reminds me of February 2020 when our Prop Oscillator was in a very similar positive divergence. The next couple weeks the price exploded to the upside. Something is coming out at anytime that is going to crash the Tech Stocks and as of now BTC markets should benefit. We will update this chart as we move forward.
You can still get in on with me, if you have the balls :PMy 1st position running from 55 750:
prnt.sc
My 2nd (gamble) position running from 55 135:
prnt.sc
Looking to take profits on my gamble position after 30-50 % crash. Basically looking for a 10x.
This is pure speculation based on my own information. Do not attempt at home.