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Marketcrash

DXY - Strikes Back, The Return of Safe-HavenThe dollar climbed as pressure stayed on bonds, with the yield on the U.S. 10-year government bond hovering at its highest levels in a year after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed little to no concern about the recent spike in yields. The U.S. dollar benefits in a few different ways. Powell’s confidence in the U.S. economy and its ability to weather the increase in rates is good for the U.S. dollar. A higher more attractive yield also draws demand for the greenback and most importantly, the slide in stocks drives investors into the currency’s safety. Stocks crashed in return as well as Bitcoin. If the DXY moved up, I think everything will cool off for a while. Disclaimer: The information presented is NOT financial advice.
TVC:DXY
by Inandouthunter
🩸 🐖 "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"Hi guys after Friday rout there are new developments in stock market indicies. Last week price action on AMEX:DIA formed bearish reversal pattern buying climax above upper megaphone pattern line at the top of rising wedge. This rising wedge is 5th Elliot wave which is signaling trend will reverse soon. As you can notice in chart last week realized volume was relatively big and volume week ago last week was rather small. Thats the signs that bears taking control significantly in recent days. I expecting this week breakdown bellow megaphone upper line and begin forming corrective wave (a). If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
AMEX:DIAShort
by Tomasgei
6
$TQQQ Market Correction DDThe market was extremely bloody last night, where we saw $TQQQ trading at highs of $98.07 at one point and subsequently closing at $87.90. I believe this can be attributed to the rising bond yields trend we are currently witnessing, particularly in the 5 year and 10 year treasury yield. Between the start of February 2021 to February 24th, the 5 year treasury yield has been steadily increasing at an average of 0.01 to 0.03 daily, while the 10 year treasury yield has been increasing at an average of 0.01 to 0.04 daily. However, yesterday on the 25th of February, this skyrocketed. The 5 year treasury yield shot up by 0.19 from 0.62 to 0.82, while the 10 year treasury yield shot up by 0.16 from 1.38 to 1.54. Typically, when the 5 year treasury yield goes beyond the 0.75% threshold and the 10 year treasury yield goes above the 1.50% threshold, the stock market tend to sell off in reaction to that. This huge one-day surge in yield return as a result of a lack of interest in bonds likely exacerbated the sell-off. I believe that this correction is extremely healthy in a market where a lot of the valuations are rather high; and this is unlikely the "huge market crash" or the "bubble pop" premonition that many investors are fearful for, especially considering the fact that a huge $1.9 trillion stimulus will be incoming. However, it will undoubtedly do us good to remain cautious and keep some cash on the side because in the short-term, the hardening of yields will likely lead to some volatility - which means more frequent dips for you to average your positions; but more importantly, eventually, the consequences of printing these money will likely catch up to us in the form of record-level inflation and interest rate rise, possibly killing the bull run - and we need to be prepared for it. For now, I expect growth from the support zone of this bullish channel back to the $100 to $110 range. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by AntrePoint
2
Market Crash, Correction and Reversion to the Mean?The crash is near and I am curious what crypto will do this time. The market behaves in waves and parallel between waves can be used to predict future instances. That doesn't mean it will come true. However, it is necessary to be cautious and balanced between greed and fear. The reason for this massive correction will be - Three O's: 1) Overleveraged 2) Overhyped 3) Overbought In short, it will be a disinflationary bust. Take care!
TVC:SPX
by filagotnochill
1
Monitor Bond Yields - Feels like 1987?Hey there, thanks for reading my idea! This isn't financial advice. Remember to do your own DD. Investing is risky. This is connected to my "Feeling Overextended?" idea which can be found here . An important metric to watch when determining whether a recession is imminent is the inversion of the Treasury bonds yield curve. Most specifically, the 3-month, 2-year and 10-year yields. The inversion occurs when the shorter-term note yields begin to rise and exceed long-term note yields. Ideal bull market conditions would have higher yields in long-term notes and lower yields in short-term notes. Higher long-term yields forecast economic growth where the Government can be expected to be able to pay back the bond. Typically, higher yields are associated with higher interest rates, which poses as an investor risk, hence the higher yield premium. Meanwhile, higher short-term yields forecast economic downturn as investors look for shorter time horizon returns to minimize risk. We have to remember that the Fed is expanding it's balance sheet through QE by buying certain assets such as mortgage-backed securities and TREASURY NOTES from the market, and J. Powell is confidently using his tools to prevent a market crash. By buying Treasury notes, the Fed can manipulate yields to create a positive outlook of the economy through a "positive" yield curve, rather than an inverted yield curve. In fact, the Fed has accumulated approximately $3billion in Treasury notes since the Covid crash. (source here , scroll down to the Fed Balance Sheet graph.) Is it recession time yet according to the yields? Maybe not yet, but once the 3 month and 2 year yields begin to rise, this should place pressure on the 10 year yield to fall., setting the stage for the next downward cycle.
TVC:US10Y
by WhatsAStockMarketLOL
6
Is EUR/GBP indicating the S&P500 Crash ?The last test of the weekly trendline in EUR/GBP was the March 2020 Crash, thats when EUR/GBP spiked up 1200 pips within a few weeks. Now price is moving close to the Trendline again, could this be a indication for the S&P500 Crash, i think so. Those that follow my Charts know that im looking for a Market crash in the next few moths, it seems like This EUR/GBP trendline could be a Indication for it. This correlation can be seen in most EUR pairs, i also posted a important EUR/AUD chart about this a few days ago, all of them give the same indication, they could be Indicating the Market crash from the technical side. This proofed to be working in 2000 / 2008 and March 2020, will it work again? Lets see.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Thomas93
8
When does the market crash, VIX?Everybody would like that know that. Although VIX is in principle a forward looking index it is a poor predictor. VIX volatility has in fact been shown to be highly correlated with backwards looking volatility, not future volatility. So let us take a look at the past then, a full 13 years full of different kinds of crises and crashes. As can be seen from the chart, each significant spike (to the level of 50 or above) has been followed by a lenghty period of cooling off. These periods are characterized by a series of lower highs forming a descending triangle with the support as the foundation. Each descending triangle in the past has been formed on a foundation on a different level. The cooling off period has varied from 1,5 years to 4 years. The level of support of the present triangle is clearly elevated as compared to the earlier ones. Moreover, there has been several lower spikes within the past year. These factors can indicate that the market is still a bit squirrelly, it is keeping itself on its toes, so to say. However, each event so far has resulted in a lower high in VIX, so cooling off is in the process. So what is VIX telling us then. I would say it tries to tell us that these things take time. Although there seems to be all kinds of bubbles, we can easily continue with the present bull market practically the whole year. That is of course if nothing dramatic happens and we continue making lower highs in VIX. Towards the end of the year the probability for the breakout increases and the bubble burst is inevitable. Then there will be ”blood on the streets”. Take care and trade safe Cheers, Whoop
CBOE:VIX
by WhooperSwan
4
How To Play The Markets To The DownsideI’m Markus Heitkoetter and I’ve been an active trader for over 20 years. I often see people who start trading and expect their accounts to explode, based on promises and hype they see in ads and e-mails. They start trading and realize it doesn’t work this way. The purpose of these articles is to show you the trading strategies and tools that I personally use to trade my own account so that you can grow your own account systematically. Real money…real trades. How can you make money in a market that is going down? Today I want to show you two strategies on how to do this. Shorting A Stock The first strategy is shorting a stock. So what does this mean and how does it work? Well, it means that you can sell a stock right now even if you don’t own it, and then buy it back later at a cheaper price. This is how it works. So first there is your broker, then there’s you who wants to participate and make money in a falling market. Let’s use Apple AAPL as an example. Let us pretend AAPL is currently trading at $119 & we believe that AAPL actually might go down again to $110. You can make money betting against AAPL in a falling market, and here’s how it works. Now, you want to sell AAPL but you don’t have the shares just yet. So what you would do is you borrow shares from your broker. So your broker is actually lending you 100 shares of Apple, or at least, we’ll use 100 shares for this example. Now, the price at this point doesn’t matter. He’s just giving you the shares and says, “OK, you need to give me back these shares later on.” And he is actually reserving some money from your trading account to make sure that you really give it back to him. Now, you have 100 shares, and you can do with these 100 shares pretty much whatever you want. So in this example, you would sell them. So you sell AAPL , 100 shares of them, at the current price of $119 because you believe that AAPL will go down. So how exactly do you make money? Let’s say after a few days, AAPL , in fact, does drop down to $110. Here’s what happens next. Now you are buying back AAPL at $110. So how much money do you make? If you sold AAPL for $119 and you’re now buying it back at $110, you’re making $9 per share, multiplied by 100 shares. This comes to $900 in profit. Now that you have the shares back, you, of course, have to give them back to the broker. Remember, the broker lent you the shares, so you have to give them back those 100 shares of AAPL , and when you do, the broker releases the money that they held, kind of in escrow, to make sure that you are getting the money back. Now, the beautiful thing is this is all going on in the background. This is what it would look like on a trading platform. So now, I want to trade AAPL , and I want to just sell 100 shares of AAPL . So all I do here is, it says already short minus 100 and I would sell them at the current price of $119.35. So I click review and send. And the broker is requesting almost $6,000 from me. And this $6,000 is basically the money that he’s holding in escrow to say, “All right, Markus, you have to give me back the shares.” And it is that easy. And now if I click on “Send Order,” I would sell the shares. So this is the first way because I told you that I’ll give you two strategies of how to benefit from a falling market. So this was strategy number one, shorting a stock. Buying A Put Option Now, let’s move on to strategy number two. You would buy a put option. “Put” means that you have the right to sell a stock at the strike price. So, again, we will be using the same example of AAPL that we used for the first strategy. So as I just said, we’re pretending AAPL right now is trading at around $119 and we believe that AAPL will go down to $110. This is how this would work. So this is where we are looking at an AAPL put, let’s say here, AAPL put of 119, and it is trading at around $1.80. So here is what exactly we would do. We would buy a put for $1.80. Now, this put gives us the right to sell AAPL for $119. Now, if AAPL really goes all the way down to $100, see same deal here, we actually would make $9 per stock. However, we have to deduct the premium that we paid for the option, which is $1.80. So this means here we are making $7.20 per share ($9 — $1.80). If we would trade one option, one option controls 100 shares, so this means that we are making $720 total. Which Strategy Should You Use? Now, the main difference between these two strategies is that, for strategy number two buying a put, you don’t need as much money. Remember when I went to my trading platform earlier and wanted to sell AAPL 100 shares, that my broker was reserving around $6,000 dollars in my account? Now keep this in mind. According to what my trading platform is telling me, if I want to buy this option, it would only cost me $180. So as you can see, huge difference. In the one case, the broker is reserving $6,000 with the possibility of making $900. For strategy two, buying a put, your broker is only requesting $180 and that is also the maximum amount that you can lose, and you can make possibly $720 here. Summary So this is how you can make money in a falling market. Now, very important, strategy number one, where you’re just shorting the stock and where the broker is lending you the stock, you cannot do that in a retirement account. But strategy number two, buying a put, you CAN do in a retirement account, and you can do this for any stock. Now, you might actually be bullish on AAPL , but if you look at some other stocks right now that we're in a downtrend, for example, ZM , if you say, “Oh my gosh, Zoom is crazy, during the pandemic here,” it went from, what? $50 to $500? You could think, “This is absolutely overvalued and I believe that Zoom will go down to $300” you can use one of these strategies. So you see that all these stocks that, during the pandemic benefited a lot, could actually move lower, this is how you can make money in a falling market. So now you know two strategies how to make money in a falling market, how to bet on a stock that is going down.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by rockwelltrading
1
When We Mistake the Map for the TerritoryNow that we know the virus is not going to get even remotely close to what the models were projecting (for now). I think it’s relevant to compare this V-shaped price recovery to the December 18 market plunge. Dec. 03 peak to Dec. 24th trough = we plunged 17.10% (in 3 weeks) From that bottom to Jan. 18 peak = we rebounded 14.74% (25 days) -->We recuperated about 86.5% of that percentage loss Feb. 19 peak to March 23rd trough = we plunged 35.72% From that bottom to our April 20th peak = we rebounded 31.5% (also 25 days!) -->We recaptured about 88% of that percentage loss *Now why did I choose these specific dates?? Answer: Because both April 20 (2020) and Jan. 18 (2018) are the peaks we made before we deviated from that “V-shaped recovery channel” Conclusion: In both V-shaped recoveries, we recapture roughly 87% of that % loss in “coincidently” 25 days as well. And then deviated out of the V-shaped channel, tested the nearest support for confirmation, and tipped off a new bull market. It probably boils down to some sort of market psychology that repeats in these types of circumstances... Now unlike the conventional belief right now, why is it all of sudden relevant and perhaps helpful to compare this crash to December 2018’s? 1)it’s the most recent liquidity crisis we’ve had 2)it was an overreaction to the potentiality of something -fear that we’re due for a recession because this bull run is much longer than its predecessors -this cycle has lasted for 10 years whereas the average is 4.5 years. This does not constitute a recession! -However, this bad logic no longer mattered once the fear becomes a contagion 3)The unraveling effect. This begins when people are provoked(by media) to look for these assurances and “oddly enough” they find these assurances As the wise Nassim Taleb says when describing cultural products, "It is hard for us to accept that people do not fall in love with works of art only for their own sake, but also in order to feel that they belong to a community. By imitating, we get closer to others-that is, other imitators. It fights solitude." Just think about it for a minute. If you were really to boil down and I mean really...The Covid crash, Dec. 2018 crash, Feb. 2018 “Peak”, Dot Com tech bubble, 01’ panic were all triggered by nothing more than a cultural product. How do contagions come about? We as humans scorn the abstract, we hate uncertainty. What we have is an aptitude for reduction. We find patterns where there are not (at first). Where can these patterns be found? What does the current language around me sound like? Most people just accept this as truth but all it is, is majority opinion that becomes so widely accepted that it becomes reality. This according to the book Black Swan is called “platonicity” which is our tendency to mistake the map for the territory. We focus on the pure and well-defined forms, the overgeneralizations, the things that make sense. And where things get dangerous is when, “...these ideas and crisp constructs inhabit our minds, we privilege them over the less tractable structures Platonicity is what makes us think that we understand more than we actually do. Now obviously this does not happen everywhere. Only in specific applications are these models, and constructions, these intellectual maps of reality wrong. “These models are like potentially helpful medicines that carry random but very severe side effects...The platonic fold is the explosive boundary where the platonic mindset enters in contact with messy reality where the gap between what you know and what you think you know becomes dangerously wide. It is here that the Black Swan is produced.” (Nassim Taleb)
SP:SPX
by TheMandalorian27
5
Prove me wrong. But Stock to flow model will not hold!First off this time is not different. It's all same, all market psychology. After all, we are human beings with similar greed and fear. Why you may ask? Simple Reasons: 1) Market will go through a disinflationary bust. Every asset will regress to its mean value or below. 2) S1F and S2F models don't take into factor black swan events like this and I believe in lengthening cycle theory with the same price prediction. 3) Something unexpected happened in the market in the last few weeks. Euphoria is over the top: overleveraged, overhyped, overbought. 4) Crypto market is still highly correlated with the equity market because of liquidity/ high volume. 5) DXY and bonds are breaking out to the upside. Crypto is inversely correlated to bonds and USD. When? - I don't have my crystal ball with me right now, but my intuition tells me soon. I may be wrong but in the coming weeks or two months. How to survive? - Set tight stop losses on all your long-term holdings. - OR Sell everything. - Buy bonds. I didn't want to publish anything this year as I explained in my last post, but this is important and I don't want anyone to lose everything you gained so far.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by filagotnochill
7
DJI broke down the first level of support!While everyone in the social media is talking about another market crash in 2021, and the inverted yield. DJI is showing signs of weakness and volatility which can continue for some time. Scenario 1 - downtrend: DJI broke below the 100 moving average, it has also broken the daily support trendline. This indicates either a downtrend momentum is happening or a correction to next previous resistance level that should act as a strong support. Scenario 2 - volatility and continue the uptrend DJI would just fall into volatility for 2 months and then continue its path to uptrend.
TVC:DJIShort
by Skypips
1
This time is...⏰ Market exuberance:New secular bear market? 🐻Hi mates, stock market is probably near top and next huge market meltdown is next door . Why i think so?I want to share with you some pieces of my analysis: 📌S&P500 vs. Utilities sector ratio It seems it could forecast short and mid term corrections in stock market but it looks like its good indicator of broader market cycles as secular bear/bull markets. A secular market trend is a long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets. 📌Yield spread Inverted yield curve is leading warning indicator of future recession. The basic principle is whe yield spred inverted (was in negative territory) you can expect recession in next 12-months.It happened when Dot.com bubble bursted in 2000-2001 and so in Great financial crisis in 2007- 2008 as you see in chart. 📌Put/Call ratio The put-call ratio is calculated by dividing the number of traded put options by the number of traded call options. You can use it as contrarian indicator to determine how much Bullish/Bearish the market is. An extremely low ratio means the market is extremely bullish. A contrarian might conclude that the market is too bullish and is due for a pullback. Contrary extremely high ratio means the market is extremely bearish. In my analysis i using 20day MA of Put/Call Ratio an looking up for divergencies. 📌VIX divergence of 20 MA 📌Nasdaq vs Russlel 2000 Just so similar pattern on monhly chart of Nasdaq and Russell 2000 📌Other factors Margin debt acceleration is another sign of speculative frenzy in the market Margin debt is not a technical indicator for trading markets. What margin debt represents is the amount of speculation that is occurring in the market. In other words, margin debt is the ‘gasoline,’ which drives markets higher as the leverage provides for the additional purchasing power of assets. However, ‘leverage’ also works in reverse as it supplies the accelerant for more significant declines as lenders ‘force’ the sale of assets to cover credit lines without regard to the borrower’s position. Here is chart Total market cap of negative earnings of IT firms near $1 trillion its more than 2000 -2001 Dot.com bubble. Source:KailashConcepts If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
AMEX:XLUShort
by Tomasgei
6
🏴‍☠️Market crash 2021 BIG UPDATE: Bull trap on SPY and more...Hi mates, i sharing my thoughs about markets from last week and my view for week ahead. So there is little summary of last week: Stocks AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ had another up week and reach another all time high President-elect Joe Biden promise another $2000 stimulus COINBASE:BTCUSD soared to 40K and reach all time high TVC:TNX rose above 1% Labor market worsening, key economic data showed last week COMEX:GC1! Sellof more than 4% TVC:DXY bounce from support at 89.50 level US Dollar Index - DXY Dollar index created inverted Head & Shoulders reversal pattern in demand area and started boucing off the lows, supported by massive divergence on long term CCI Volatility index - VIX S&P 500 Volatility index is still well above 20 level from 2020 and its set up for another bounce from its demand zone on 19.50 level 10 Years Trasury Yield Yield of 10-y Treasury pumping up momentum. Last week advanced more than 20% thats big move, compared several weeks ago Next week we expecting some important economic numbers and events: CPI and Core CPI Beige Book Unemployment Claims Fed Chair Powell Speaks Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales Through next week i expect higher volatility will come. At friday AMEX:SPY created bull trap by candlestick pattern hanging man by piercing higher rising channel line supported by divergence on long term CCI. So i will play stocks very carefully next week for long side. We can observe some flow into Financial, Healthcare and Materials sector so these sectors could be a good play for next week.Expecting further rise of TVC:DXY and TVC:TNX so this could make some further pressure on commodities like COMEX:GC1! .
AMEX:SPYShort
by Tomasgei
7