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Marketcycle

IS DXY AKA DOLLAR ABOUT TO COLLAPSE?Is history about to repeat itself once again. The dollar has enjoyed a spat of Bullishness since may last year. It seems to be slowing down at present though. Running into Monthly fibonacci levels at present the .702 is holding. I'd like to see a close below the .618 next to confirm the move to the downside, targeting D extension @ 84.6 Because the market likes round numbers, I wouldn't be surprised to see a final push up towards the .786 aka 100. Technically price can push as high as 102 and still be printing Lower Highs on the weekly and monthly timeframes. This is bearish price action, given the state of the world economy at present. Especially the USD, I can't see the DXY making an impulsive move upwards. This leads me to believe that the local top for DXY is nearly in and with it a bearish couple of months will follow. On a macro-economic level, what we could see playing out here is essentially the collapse of the US Dollar. It has maintained dominance and world reserve status due to the petrodollar. As the US pushes for sanctions more countries are moving away from the Dollar. One significant move has been the rise of the Petroyuan. China's response to economic warfare committed by the US. Once this is fully established demand for the Dollar will not only go down, it will collapse. Not to mention the US currently has inflation at around 8% whilst China is sitting pretty at around 0.9%. There is a clear winner here and it is not the dollar. So either a miracle happens or we are about to witness a new world order. Time will tell, either way what we're witnessing is a massive shift in the global powers. The USA is on its last legs and they seem to be digging an even bigger hole than the one they're already in.
TVC:DXYShort
by PrinceParisOfTroy
BITCOIN ALL YOU NEED TO DO IS ZOOM OUTAfternoon frens, Bitcoin has been side stepping since 10th Jan, so pretty much the whole of 2022 so far. Although this can be frustrating, in times of consolidation it's best to just sit on our hands and wait for the market to give us a direction. As you can see we have been bouncing around the fib levels and weekly resistance. There are quite big wicks either side, indicating both bulls and bears are getting slaughtered in the market. Whenever indecision is present, I sit on my hands and wait. Trying to enter the market now is a guessing game and will mostly end up on the wrong side. We did achieve a weekly close above 40K last week aka the .618 fib level. This does indicate bullishness in the market, however with all the indecision, I'm still not happy to trade here. Instead to confirm my bullish bias I would be much happier waiting for; A close above EMA's A close above 43.5K I will be watching PA only lower TF for bullish market structure A weekly close above 45.8K to fully confirm If this happens my target will be the fib extensions @ 87K & 117K respectively Despite the consolidation we see at the moment, I am overall bullish on Bitcoin. There seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the market right now, when that is over BTC will have its day. The DXY is also at an interesting turning point, it either carries on strengthening or it collapses. My guess would be a collapse is round the corner as this will coincide with fundamentals at the moment. I can't see the Dollar becoming any stronger than it already is. Once the DXY collapses that is when BTC and ALTs go on their run. I'm looking forward to it. Alternatively for the bearish perspective I will be waiting for a close below 33K next target would be 28.6K followed by 22.6K worst case which is the fib extension to complete the impulsive move down. Have a great day, appreciate you taking the time to check out my TA. Please comments are open, lets discuss :) Cheers, Chartster
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by PrinceParisOfTroy
Sector Rotation March 2022: Stocks Winning While Market DownMy last video on Sector Rotation was almost a year ago. The signals for where the money was flowing into and out of stocks was not nearly as clear as it is now. Stocks in Consumer Staples, Healthcare, and Utilities are considered Defensive plays in a market going down. It is clear by the winners and losers across the market and in my own trade calls which stocks are strong against the bearish tide. Traders and investors can use the Sector Rotation model to position themselves in changing market conditions and have an idea of which sector is likely to lead next.
AMEX:SPY
by norok
3
XRP - Ripple without doubts STRONG Move UP! Could above 0.3440$!Analysis for next week January 6 — 10, 2020 - Ripple - XRP/USD end the trading week at 0.19102 and continue to move within the correction and the bearish channel. Moving averages indicate the presence of a bearish trend, continue to be repelled by signal lines, which indicates pressure from the bears. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to continue the decline and test the support area near 0.1405 (exactly if will break the strong support area 0.1746). Where again we should expect a rebound and continued growth of the cryptocurrency in the region above the level of 0.3445 as part of the development of the bullish «Wolfe Wave» model. Hints are a lot so we can say this is a new chapter of New Market-Cycle, without doubts. As soon with all Top Crypto with BTC strong Dominance - 68.20% increased with + 0.06% from yesterday test near strong supports. - In favor of the growth of XRP/USD quotes in the current trading week from January 6 to 10, 2020 , a test of the support line on the relative strength index (RSI) will come out. The second signal will be the completion of the formation of the bull model «Wolfe Wave» . Analysis January 6 — 10, 2020 suggests an attempt to test the support level near the 0.1405 area. Where can we expect continued growth of quotations with a potential target at the level of 0.3445 . An additional signal in favor of the fall of Ripple will be a test of the trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). - Hope you guys you support our work with a like and share of this post! Also don't foreget to follows us! :) You can motivate us to post more analysis cryptocurrency charts! Thank you! ,) Mention: This is not FINANCIAL ADVICE! Just EDUCATIONAL ANALYSIS!
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn5699044
2
Dangerous TOTAL2 PRZ?! Crypto market dump ahead? In order to have a bull market, it's essential to absorb more money; and I mean BIG MONEY! The main reason that crypto market made huge profits in 2021 was that more people understood what cryptocurrency actually is. This led to normal people (such as me and other new to crypto fellas) investing on this market hoping to get good profit and we got it! But how long would this bull run last? The answer lays beneath the TOTAL and TOTAL2 charts. These charts reveal how much money the entire market has absorbed. As I mentioned at first, the more money the market gains, the more it grows. But when the money slowly leaves, the Market Cycle Phase changes. You may ask what it means, so here's a simple explanation from Investopedia: 1. Accumulation phase: This phase occurs when the market has bottomed and the main investors such as big corporations, money managers and smart investors start buying. In this phase valuations are attractive, yet huge percentage of investors still consider the market bearish and the sentiment analysis say so. 2. Mark-Up Phase: During this phase, technicians see the movement in the market and other investors get on the bullish train and prices start to go higher and higher. This is investors favorite phase! No matter what you buy and when you buy it, you make great profits. 3. Distribution Phase: In this Phase, sellers start to dominate the market, the bullish sentiment changes to mixed sentiment and prices often move in trading range. As soon as this phase comes to the end, the prices start to reverse and classic patterns such as double top or triple top appear on charts. 4. Mark-Down Phase: Without any doubt, this phase is the scariest of all 4 and the nightmare of investors. During this phase, prices go lower and lower, the news would be all bearish. If we carefully observe the third phase and exit the market, our money can be safe but if not the nightmare would become real without any doubt. If you take a closer look you'll realize that the TOTAL2 was unable to go higher than the all time high. You don't even need to be a technician to notice that. I used the 4H time frame on purpose. It is possible to see bullish movements in short-term yet it all could just be a pull back in long-term. The market cycle I mentioned earlier is fractal which means there could be bullish mark-up cycle in 1H or 4H time frame but not in long term. In conclusion, this post wasn't here to scare you, but to inform you what could be awaiting us. The money I mentioned could leave one coin and be invested on another one, eg; from BTC to MANA or vise versa. This means it's still a very attractive market but you have to be more careful. Looking forward to hearing what you think!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by impressiveHero2001
Psychology of a Market Cycle Applied (ADA Application)Above is a side by side comparison of the Psychology of the market cycle from Wall St. Cheat Sheet to ADA's current yearly market structure. I overlayed colored lines over line graph for visual aid. This market cycle theory developed in the lens of trading psychology was originally developed and posted by Satoshi Nakamoto, the cryptic father of the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin , and, arguably, deserves the title of 'Father of Cryptocurrency' alongside David Chaum . Currently, I see two possibilities: 1) We are in the end of the DISBELIEF phase, where a slight pull back occurs before the optimism/belief/thrill stages appear. 2) We may be experiencing the depression dip before building up to the "Hope" phase were a small pull back occurs before a big breakout. Given the effects of the tumultuous socio-economic environment created by COVID along with the unprecedented flooding of the Alt/DeFi/NFT market (ranging from both revolutionary blockchain technologies to almost useless meme coins like Shib or the SQUID, named as reference to Squid Games show). It would be remiss of me not to further mention the major effects the global political environment has rendered. Issues range from China's crypto collapse (starting with mining and then finally fully banning the use of them) to Kazakhstan's power and internet outages . Together, these provide an answer to a concept that seems to escape even the most astute technical traders: Although the use of statistically oriented indicators proves effective in theory, the patterns and signals we know to be effective tools today will slowly change in the the way they provide signals for traders. If the picture was the "average," then the actual market provides the source of "standard deviations" we see in price action evolution, both within a single asset's historical rendering and between assets that move closely.
by PapaBear95
1
Psychology of a Market Cycle Applied (CARDANO's representation)Above is a comparison of the Psychology of the market cycle from Wall St. Cheat Sheet (originally developed and posted by Satoshi Nakamoto, the cryptic father of the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and, arguably, deserves the title of 'Father of Cryptocurrency ADA's current price action/movement. Currently, I see two possibilities: 1) We are in the end of the DISBELIEF phase, where a slight pull back occurs before the optimism/belief/thrill stages appear. 2) We may be experiencing the depression dip before building up to the "Hope" phase were a small pull back occurs before a big breakout. Given the effects of the tumultuous socio-economic environment created by COVID along with the unprecedented flooding of the Alt/DeFi/NFT market (ranging from both revolutionary blockchain technologies to almost useless meme coins like Shib or the SQUID, named as reference to Squid Games show). It would be remiss of me not to further mention the major effects the global political environment has rendered. Issues range from China's crypto collapse (starting with mining and then finally fully banning the use of them) to Kazakhstan's power and internet outages . Together, these provide an answer to a concept that seems to escape even the most astute technical traders: Although the use of statistically oriented indicators proves effective in theory, the patterns and signals we know to be effective tools today will slowly change in the the way they provide signals for traders. If the picture was the "average," then the actual market provides the source of "standard deviations" we see in price action evolution, both within a single asset's historical rendering and between assets that move closely.
by PapaBear95
DXY CAPITULATION PENDING A WEEKLY CLOSEAfternoon people, Thanks for taking the time to check out my Technical analysis, much appreciated. Constructive comments are always encouraged. DXY has enjoyed a lot of strength in recent weeks, strangely baffling seeing as since 2020 the supply of USD has increased by 30%+. There is now more Dollars in existence than have ever been, yet according to recent strength it would seem people still trust the Dollar. It seems like a recipe for disaster if you ask me. The dollar is weak, it has been since Nixon unpegged it from the Gold Standard, thus sealing its fate as a fiat currency. History shows us how it ends for "world reserve currencies", the cycle is around every 100 years. Guess how long the Dollar has been in power for ;) Price attempted to breakout to the upside last week, completing the impulsive move from 94.56 to 96. However the .5 fib held and sellers stepped in causing a considerably big wick. Indicating buyers are struggling to break through the fibonacci levels that are acting as resistance. we closed with a huge wick on the weekly. I'm now waiting for a weekly close below the aforementioned levels to indicate a continuation to the downside. This adds further confluence to my idea posted earlier in regards to Bitcoin. It would seem Bitcoin has found its bottom and we should now be expecting Bitcoin to start moving towards my 233K targets. Once DXY starts collapsing, the downside targets at the D ext. are 86 & 82 respectively. It is my belief that we will be seeing the Dollar collapse as Bitcoin goes on its parabolic blow off top phase of the market cycle (something we haven't seen yet). Regardless of how far Bitcoin goes, it needs a DXY collapse to do so. Similar to 2017. So far Bitcoin is inversely correlated with DXY. Observed today we can see weakness in the DXY has led to Bitcoins price rising and therefore the rest of the crypto market across the board. This is just the beginning. Don't be disillusioned, when Bitcoin does pullback, which it will. This will be a great buying opportunity. Be patient & ENJOY the show. Remember to take profits as you go and scale out. We don't need to pick tops. No one ever went broke taking profits. Happy trading, Big Love
TVC:DXY
by PrinceParisOfTroy
1
Market Structure Simplified It is easy to get confused with overflowing information about market structure in the trading world. To simplify things we have come up with a way of analysing market structure simply by marking each high or low. In this particular example, you can see that higher lows were being created all the way down the bearish trend, so we knew that it was a seller's market UNTIL we got our break of structure . When the BOS became apparent, we began to shift our attention to the possibility of reversals and used our magic tool, the Fibonacci. This technique can be used in any trend, try it for yourselves! Please, support this post with a like and comment!
Education
by AlkalineFX
84
"This Time Is Different"Based on this chart we are currently in the complacency stage. The description fits quite well for the overall market sentiment. For months now we have heard about how we are in a much needed correction for the next great run up. Think of all the emotions that you experienced from the March crash to the May top. Many of us have felt the optimism, belief, thrill, euphoria, and now the complacency. Do not be a fool and fall for the "This Time Is Different" narrative. People will say this time is different because of "institutional investors, countries adoptoption, etc." Do not fall for it.
Short
by Nutty_Trader
26
💡🎓1929-2031: The Fractal Macro Economic Expansion Cycle🎓💡The 2 major Expansion Cycles of the 20th Century, both expanded exactly +2509%. & both over exactly 18 Years from ATH Breakout!! In this analysis, I compare the size and duration of the 2 major economic expansions cycles of the 20th Century, identifying the key components of each individual cycle to draw Observations, Parallels and Predictions with the 3rd major economic expansion cycle currently happening in the 21st Century. Observations; All 3 Macro Economic Cycles have 4 key Components; Correction A. Crash, Recession & Recovery Expansion Phase 1; B. Breakout from ATH C. Double Micro Wedge Expansion Phase 2 D. Single Macro Wedge Parallels; The 2 completed Expansion Cycles (1 & 2) of the 20th Century both have exactly the same traits; 1. Both start with a Correction: Crash, Recession & Recovery (of varying lengths / %) 2. Both expanded by exactly 2509% by the ATH / Next Correction, compared to previous Low (previous correction) 3. Both expansions lasted exactly 18 years from breakout of previous ATH to next ATH prior to correction 4. Both expansions were broken into 2 Phases of exactly 9 years each , defined by the same following characteristics: a. Phase 1: First 8 years of expansion - Breakout of from ATH, succeeded & Double Micro Wedge b. Phase 2: Second 8 years expansion - A Single Macro Wedge Expansion Cycle 1 & 2 Details Expansion Cycle 1: +2509% / 219 Bars ATH Breakout: 1954 to Correction: 1972 (18 Years) Previous ATH: 1929 Previous Market Low: 1932 Expansion Cycle 2: +2509% / 217 Bars ATH Breakout: 1982 to Correction: 2000 (18 Years) Previous ATH: 1972 Previous Market Low: 1974 Prediction: Expansion Cycle 3 started in 2013, with a Break out from Previous ATH, that was quickly succeeded by a Double Micro Wedge, all leading up to today (September 2021), which is roughly the end of a Expansion Phase 1 of 9 Years (half of 18 Year historical Expansion duration) Expansion Cycle 3; Phase 2 will start in 2022 and last until 2031, during which we could expect to see a major wedge form within the market, combined with a exponential expansion to reach a Market ATH of +2509% in 2031 (compared to previous market low in 2009) that will catalyse the next major market Correction: Crash Recession & Recovery from 2031 through subsequent years. Expansion Cycle 3 Details Expansion Cycle 3: +2509% / 217 Bars ATH Breakout: 2013 to Correction: 2031 (Predicted 18 Years) Previous ATH: 2000/2007 Previous Market Low: 2009 Conclusion; The market is essentially a self repeating algorithm, a fractal!! First defined by Robert W. Brooks in 1978, then first visualized by Benoit Mandelbrot in 1980, this has since been known as the Mandelbrot Set, and can be observed all across complex systems both natural and synthetic, with this mathematic miracle providing the foundation for CGI (Computer Generated Images) so advanced/complex that they can emulate real world expressions of complex natural formations such as mountains, human movement and almost anything you can think of! Yea fractals are awesome, I've seen them a bunch while tripping and have come to understanding of their fundamental role in creating the realities & universe we experience :D I guess the question is, will they play out in the current and future Macro Economic Cycles as well? What are your thoughts? yemala
TVC:SPX
by Yemala
6
Is the Bear Market Upon Us?Hello Everyone, Quick analysis for today. There has been a question in the air for the last 2-3 months. "Are we in a bear market?". Well there is not a simple yes or no answer for this and I would say it is a little too early to call. I am personally leaning more bearish as I am seeing rallies with bearish price action representing dead cat bounces. Not to mention the huge loss in momentum and exit pumps in random small cap alt coins by whales. I have provided several pieces of analysis in the last few weeks but here is a more simple weekly chart. As we can see, each time the market "tops" it is followed by a large relief rally that does not exceed the all time high. The biggest take away is the much lower volume or bearish price action as the price tries to climb back up. Each time this happened, the market saw the entry way into the bear market. Another note is the blue Moving Average which is the Hull Moving Average . This MA has been consistent in determining the start/end of the bull/bear market. Not to mention we are at a 20x from the March 2020 low. I would also like to include a partial monthly analysis here. If you look at RSI, each bull market ended with RSI just above 90. The bear market followed. This bull market hit 90 right around the 60k area. This does not mean there are not bullish swings in the bear market. There are 4-7 on average per year. I will be looking forward to trading these as well as DCAing in the bear market (if it is here to stay). I made some very good gains in this bull market. Things can change and we may still continue this bull cycle but at this point I think it's unlikely. As always, be patient, use risk management, and good luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by RomanXIV
7
Bitcoin: The Ultimate Market Cycle Theory ExplainedIn this post, I'll be breaking down Bitcoin's market cycle theory, explaining my perspective on the target and time period I have in mind for this bullish rally. If you've been keeping track of my other posts, you'll notice that I've been very clear with the fact that the overall trend remains bullish on Bitcoin, as much as the short term trend may appear bearish. You can view my latest post, where I cover Bitcoin's daily chart here: Bitcoin: The Beginning of a Second Rally Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk. Bitcoin's Price Target Analysis / Explanation - This is a model that was inspired by that of DigitalKM on Twitter. - We can first arbitrarily divide Bitcoin's market cycle into three: the first cycle from 2010-2013, second cycle from 2013-2017, and the current third cycle. - We can then look at the fibonacci retracement levels based on the major pullbacks/corrections that took place during each market cycle. - What's interesting to note is how the 1.618 level initially plays a key level of resistance, but acts as the bottom support for the coming (next) cycle. - We can also see a pattern in which the market cycle peaks near the 2.272 fib resistance. - As such, given that price actions tend to repeat, we can expect a huge initial rejection at the 1.618 fib level, around 63k (which is exactly what happened), and a continuation upwards as we peak around the $200,000 mark for this cycle. Now that we have a rough estimate of where this cycle might end, then comes the big question: when exactly could we expect this market to top off? Bitcoin's Cycle Duration Analysis / Explanation - So there are two theories I initially had in mind for Bitcoin's market cycle duration. - The first theory is a case in which we see the cycle's top around December 2020. - Historically, all market cycle tops have peaked out in December, so it would make sense to see a parabolic move up to the top by the end of the year. - For a detailed explanation on this theory, check out my other analysis I posted on Nov 16, 2020: Bitcoin: Long Term Breakout Projection - The second theory for the cycle duration is based on Bitcoin's halving events and cycles. - After the btc halving in 2012, the rally lasted 372 days up to Nov 2013. - The second halving in 2016 lasted 520 days, up to Dec 2017. - In terms of time span, this is a 39% increase in the duration of the bull run. - So assuming that we apply the same increase in duration for this bull run, we’d see the rally last 722 days, which would end around May of 2022. - This aligns with Benjamin Cowen's model as well, where we see an extended duration for every Bitcoin cycle, and diminished returns. Conclusion Predicting the market is impossible, but as traders and investors, we need to understand the overall picture and understand market cycles in order to best position ourselves within a bull market backed by huge momentum. I believe that Bitcoin's price target of $200,000 by May 2020 is one of many highly probable scenarios based on the technicals of its price action, as well as the market's reaction to Bitcoin's supply change based on halving events. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
BNC:BLXLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
16