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Marketcycle

Is the Bear Market Upon Us?Hello Everyone, Quick analysis for today. There has been a question in the air for the last 2-3 months. "Are we in a bear market?". Well there is not a simple yes or no answer for this and I would say it is a little too early to call. I am personally leaning more bearish as I am seeing rallies with bearish price action representing dead cat bounces. Not to mention the huge loss in momentum and exit pumps in random small cap alt coins by whales. I have provided several pieces of analysis in the last few weeks but here is a more simple weekly chart. As we can see, each time the market "tops" it is followed by a large relief rally that does not exceed the all time high. The biggest take away is the much lower volume or bearish price action as the price tries to climb back up. Each time this happened, the market saw the entry way into the bear market. Another note is the blue Moving Average which is the Hull Moving Average . This MA has been consistent in determining the start/end of the bull/bear market. Not to mention we are at a 20x from the March 2020 low. I would also like to include a partial monthly analysis here. If you look at RSI, each bull market ended with RSI just above 90. The bear market followed. This bull market hit 90 right around the 60k area. This does not mean there are not bullish swings in the bear market. There are 4-7 on average per year. I will be looking forward to trading these as well as DCAing in the bear market (if it is here to stay). I made some very good gains in this bull market. Things can change and we may still continue this bull cycle but at this point I think it's unlikely. As always, be patient, use risk management, and good luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by RomanXIV
7
Bitcoin: The Ultimate Market Cycle Theory ExplainedIn this post, I'll be breaking down Bitcoin's market cycle theory, explaining my perspective on the target and time period I have in mind for this bullish rally. If you've been keeping track of my other posts, you'll notice that I've been very clear with the fact that the overall trend remains bullish on Bitcoin, as much as the short term trend may appear bearish. You can view my latest post, where I cover Bitcoin's daily chart here: Bitcoin: The Beginning of a Second Rally Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk. Bitcoin's Price Target Analysis / Explanation - This is a model that was inspired by that of DigitalKM on Twitter. - We can first arbitrarily divide Bitcoin's market cycle into three: the first cycle from 2010-2013, second cycle from 2013-2017, and the current third cycle. - We can then look at the fibonacci retracement levels based on the major pullbacks/corrections that took place during each market cycle. - What's interesting to note is how the 1.618 level initially plays a key level of resistance, but acts as the bottom support for the coming (next) cycle. - We can also see a pattern in which the market cycle peaks near the 2.272 fib resistance. - As such, given that price actions tend to repeat, we can expect a huge initial rejection at the 1.618 fib level, around 63k (which is exactly what happened), and a continuation upwards as we peak around the $200,000 mark for this cycle. Now that we have a rough estimate of where this cycle might end, then comes the big question: when exactly could we expect this market to top off? Bitcoin's Cycle Duration Analysis / Explanation - So there are two theories I initially had in mind for Bitcoin's market cycle duration. - The first theory is a case in which we see the cycle's top around December 2020. - Historically, all market cycle tops have peaked out in December, so it would make sense to see a parabolic move up to the top by the end of the year. - For a detailed explanation on this theory, check out my other analysis I posted on Nov 16, 2020: Bitcoin: Long Term Breakout Projection - The second theory for the cycle duration is based on Bitcoin's halving events and cycles. - After the btc halving in 2012, the rally lasted 372 days up to Nov 2013. - The second halving in 2016 lasted 520 days, up to Dec 2017. - In terms of time span, this is a 39% increase in the duration of the bull run. - So assuming that we apply the same increase in duration for this bull run, we’d see the rally last 722 days, which would end around May of 2022. - This aligns with Benjamin Cowen's model as well, where we see an extended duration for every Bitcoin cycle, and diminished returns. Conclusion Predicting the market is impossible, but as traders and investors, we need to understand the overall picture and understand market cycles in order to best position ourselves within a bull market backed by huge momentum. I believe that Bitcoin's price target of $200,000 by May 2020 is one of many highly probable scenarios based on the technicals of its price action, as well as the market's reaction to Bitcoin's supply change based on halving events. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
BNC:BLXLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
16
AUD USD - broke Fibonacci "0" - keep holdingHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: See the previous work AUD USD, USD CAD The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. Fibonacci Weekly and Daily Fibonacci levels. Weekly Fibonacci level using the high to the low - the retrace shows the opportunity at 0.618 or 61.8% - this also aligns next to the monthly "edge" however, looking left the wick highs failed to close inside 0.785XX, which means the rejection upon this level provides a perfect opportunity for a second sell position for a positional or weekly swing sell. Daily Fibonacci The Daily Fibonacci provided a double top or a 50% retracement rejection. For the shorter term sellers adding a position here would suffice, but recommend placing a larger position on the 61.8% as mentioned. The edge of the monthly imbalance, has key closes which come down to a daily level with fractal pivot points. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high. SPX vs AUDUSD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Yields: Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. DXY criteria: DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Correlation: Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates. Gold production as the Aussie is a commodity currency. Gold discounted offering See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD. Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates. Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. However pay attention to the 1700* whereby price has a good wick where price can closed out and may have an alternate buy opportunity here. 4 hour view - potential bearish continuation? Here we have a clear imbalance filled where price has touched the low and successfully rejecting as price closed out - confirming the imbalance. Now price has continued to sell off - looking for a low of the Fibonacci '0'' to be tested. From here price will look to continue and break the zone at the low structural four hour zone. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
BITCOIN... where are you going?I was going to hold off posting this until the current daily close as it could invalidate my entire road map for now, I'm already short how ever was looking to cover my position today with the intentions of seeing a buy back on the daily close. If this current Daily candle closes well below the current short term range support I'm expecting more downside much earlier than I would like. How ever if we do have a recovery here and we start to move higher again with market structure I'm not going to turn Bull again, I'm simply biding my time for a much better entry on the continuation of the down trend expecting some form of a broadening range over the next month, this will ultimately become a suckers rally or bull trap as the perma bulls and retail fail to see the signs that we are already in a bearish indecisive market. Retail have a natural tendency of a bullish confirmation bias and some times fail to see the information in front of them, instead twist it or see what they want to see to confirm the narrative, much like selective hearing as a child lol It's for this phenomena that often retail become trapped into positions that smart money can take advantage of and they simply become liquidity providers to the big players. I am expecting another short/mid term rally towards the 46k bottom of the previous range as a bit of a complacency play which is why I refer to it as the suckers rally as the perma bulls, YouTube gurus and retail traders start yelling "told ya so 1milly bitty here we come" "should have bought the dip" etc etc This will be a perfect time for large funds to trap the bulls into positions to fill large shorts and ride the price back down to the previous support level. As we touch back on support I would expect a natural reaction of a dismal buy back but as we move into the anxiety phase and retail start to become weary they may actually be wrong, I wouldn't expect to see a whole heap of buying here and most likely see a bear flag form and break to the downside demolishing that support level at 32k The key areas I'm looking at for the continuation is the large demand zone around 25k, now keep in mind the structure formed at 25k I wouldn't normally consider to be a large demand how ever the retest in Jan confirmed there was a demand at that level at the start of the year so it may still be a significant level to watch for so expecting to see a short term recovery how ever ultimately breaking down again as the bulls begin the panic and capitulation phase of a market cycle as this is where the big money takes the most advantage to fill large positions and begin the accumulation once again. There is a key area around 22-24k where there was a hold up in the market towards the end of last year as we entered price discovery from previous ATH, the pause during that period was short lived and we never returned to that level, so we could see a square up to this level but I'm not counting on it being the reversal point more so an Area Of Interest to manage my trade accordingly at the time. Finally we push towards a liquidity grab as 20k just seems like way to obvious of a level to aim for, there will be bottom pickers, buy the dippers, people loading up on longs are previous ATH and others front running the herd, this will become a massive liquidity pool for smart money so either we turn the market around before we get there which will simply price retail out of the market before they get a change to get in. or they let them get in and there stop loss orders become the liquidity pool and they do one last blip down to shake them out and take there orders off them, and thus we begun the re accumulation phase. Anyway just my thoughts and a possible road map that I often refer to as my "play book" These arnt so much a "prediction" or a "call" more a case of "if this happens, then im gonna do that" Keen to hear your thoughts
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DeNomics
2
We keep comparing fractals BTC 2019-2021 Last April I made a comparison of fractals towards a bear market and it was carried out, we currently see a recovery but how true can it be in the face of a bullish break? We can get to have a bulltrap and come back again and double-bottom in the 30k. Otherwise, we can break well and head towards the 44-48k level in case this is done in a good way, we could visit a double top or if we draw a fibonacci extension in the medium term, go towards 100k but in the case that not If it happens, we could head towards catastrophe and visit not only again as a triple floor at 30k, but 24k at the base of our canal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by HotChili
BTC- Fundamental, market cycle and capitulationThe great unwind... As Mark Cuban calls it. Such capitulations are, however, not uncommon throughout Bitcoin's history. Feb 2018, Nov 2018 and Mar 2020... To name a few. Of course, to newcomers, such volatility is difficult to stomach. At least, that was how I felt back in 2017. The latest China FUD is simply three banking and payments associations in China reiterated on the central bank's 2017 ban on financial institutions and payment firms engaging in cryptocurrency transactions and these rules have been in place since 2017. China has been banning the retail trading and the operation of crypto exchange within China’s jurisdiction since 2017. I know this because I was at the front row seat and watched this event unfolded which also coincided with the deep correction of Ethereum from $400 to $140. China’s latest crackdown on Bitcoin mining will be limited to operations that are not using hydroelectric power. If you think about it, it’s actually good for BTC’s reputation and the global environment in the long run as the world’s adoption of the decarbonation accelerates. Elon musk’s bashing of BTC…. Hard to take him seriously when he doesn’t even know the high ownership concentration of DOGE and when he believes that he can magically 10x the block size of DOGE. Obviously, he hasn’t thought seriously about the scalability dilemma and the tradeoff between privacy & decentralization and transaction volume/speed/cost. He is right about the BTC’s environmental impact though and it is an important issue for Bitconers to address as the worldwide trend toward the greener environment marches on. I just wish that he didn’t flipflop on whether or not he would allow Tesla to accept BTC payment. FOMOers, long-term holders/whales and miners determine crypto’s market cycle. Let’s examine them one by one. Short-term holder's capitulation- Panic selling is actually good as weak hands get shaken out and market cools off a bit. Both aSOPR and STH-SOPR have dipped below 1.0 recently indicating the widespread and aggressive panic selling by new holders. # of address with a non-zero balance has also decreased which is another sign of panic selling by FOMOers. Bitcoin’s Net Transfer volume from/to Binance is another panic selling indicator as it went up when panic selling intensified. Long-term holder is HODLing- The ASOL, CDD and Dormancy metrics are all down indicating HODL sentiment among long-term holders. # of Bitcoin supply held by Long Term Holders indicating that LTHs haven’t distributed their holdings to the lvl where the new accumulation phase typically begins. Coinbase’s outflow continues to increase and its balance continue to decline which indicating institutional accumulation and demand and the increasing # of accumulation addresses also point to the same trend. Total supply held by long-term holders has also slightly increased though this data by itself doesn’t tell us if LTH is accumulating at the bottom of the bullish retracement or the beginning of bearish cycle. Miners' accumulation- Last but not the least, miners’ behavior has great influence on the market sentiment. Both Bitcoin’s Miner Net Position Change and OTC Desks Balance indicate that miners are bullish and are accumulating BTC instead of distributing it. Most other on-chain datas and technical indicators such as BTC NVT price, Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon and Mayer multiple paint a bullish picture as well . However, one thing that concerns me is that Bitcoin Wallet Sizes: > 1,000 BTC seems to be declining a bit. It’s possible that the price can continue to fall and bottom around 25k, but the likelihood of it happens will depend on if BTC can convincingly break above 38k and how long BTC stays below 40k. Whatever you do, base your judgement on the combination of different source and analysis rather than the biased intuition and simple trading patterns. Most importantly, play the long game. It's paramount that you can survive the bearish cycle, which will come eventually, and have enough capital set aside so you can buy at the bottom formation and enjoy the fruit of your labors when the market rises up again.
by Libratus
2
Cardano break out this simetric triangle and pull back confirmedI see that Cardano break up this simetric triangle and that was an accumulation zone in the range of $1 to $1.44 USD. Right now, Cardano it's above of $1.40 USD and we see that Cardano have all chances to continue up in the next days. For that, we can to looking for long position in this cryptocurrency. In Daily timeframe, it's look bullish and I see that Cardano it's leading toward the $2.86 USD calculating the simetric triangle base to compare and project the next bull movement incomming. We see in 3 Daily timeframe that Cardano based in this timeframe, it's could to leading to $7.66 USD in few weeks by medium to long term. That will be amazing for us as we're Cardano holder. And also, I want to make stream video in trading view here to talk about of cryptocurrency news, about Cardano, and other altcoin to know their fundamental analysis, and maybe, I belive to create a telegram group, that help us to be connected as community. Now, we see that Cardano it's extremely bullish, you can to put a buy order limit at $1.41 USD with the SL at $1.19 USD and your target proit will be $2.86 USD. Guys, if you found out that this idea it's going to support for everyone, you're inviting to share this analysis with others traders, crypto-enthusiastic and others crypto-community to know my perspective and expand my presence.
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
3
LINK USD - Trade updateHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. See the previous Link here for the original analysis: Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances: The amount of data here is not a huge amount but the Fibonacci sequence has already completed a extension pattern on a monthly timeframe and provided imbalances which helps distinguish zones of probabilities where price can offer sell positions and respective buy positions. 1. The $36 high to $24 is a huge imbalance at the current moment but when aligning the price position creating an all time high. Price will reject here due to the newly created zone, where the imbalance of sellers will take over and created a lower correctional zone in a previous monthly imbalance or weekly. . From a Fibonacci viewpoint. The monthly zone creation at $20.00 provided the first opportunity for a correctional move down to the weekly imbalance fill between $8.95 to $4.5 dollars, however, using the Fibonacci tool - the imbalance fill is at the top of the zone where correctional moves have used the pivot reference of 61.8% as the optimal zone for probabilities for positional buying. Here, the imbalance has been filled with the monthly July 2020 imbalance filled with a net close out from the sellers, signifying to buyers - the price ladder is now inefficient with sellers and buyers can take over. Weekly Imbalances The weekly imbalances have been previously tested, where the weekly imbalance candle provided a "breather" upon the bullish impulse move. Price created a fractal point offering buyers a discounted opportunity to create a base zone. Price has re-tested this imbalance and filled the liquidity wick. The latest re-test has successfully filled in the imbalance at $23.7XX where price has rejected again and showed a highly favoured probability to become bullish further. Daily imbalances The new daily imbalances are in place offering a strong opportunity for price to show an opportunity to add a position. The latest daily imbalance has been rejected by the sellers and now in control with the buyers. The daily trendline pattern 'X' offers a cross opportunity to add a position upon a breakout of the trend, however, the real addition zone here is once $29.3 is successfully filled. The cross analysis between relevant Crypto coins: Key: Red = XTZ USD Orange = ETH USD Ethereum Purple = OMG USD OMG Network Using the comparison of what assets move in sync with this, it is clear that Etherium, OMG and Tezos have clear correlation with Chainlink within 0.9+ positive correlation. Other comparable assets are EOS which is noticeably picking up traction towards creating a new imbalance. The defined zones can be outlined in separate screens for defined imbalances - this is just to show the correlative aspect of where price is driving towards - i.e a monthly imbalance zone re-test. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by LupaCapital
1
Litecoin show a good interesting opportuity; I reconsider it!!!At the moment, if you thinking to trade Litecoin, I thinking to trade Litecoin, this crytpocurrency show a good analysis and good position that I can to make a Daily analysis more secure and profesional for you. I see that Litecoin it's bullish and I entry right now in the marketprice around of $187 USD to long position until the $423 USD, I follow the Daily analysis. I know today that Cardano and Ethereum was touch me my break even, in except, as I entry around o $1,500 USD in Ethreeum and touch my break even exactly at $1,700 USD, I get some profits in Ethereum, but in case of Cardano, I do not earn and loss, my profit was 0 without any loss, becuase I put a break even in the price entry in Cardano. But, whatever, I see that Litecoin it's more interesting to trade Ethereum, but I change Litecoin for Ethereum to trade it. Litecoin could to form a simetric triangle, notice that much crytpocurrrency it's in this pattern, for that, this it's a good opportunity to bought Litecoin or put in long position. And the weekly analysis it's still bullish, for that, I make a Daily analysis in Litecoin. Guys, if you found out that this idea it's very interesting for you, please comment below what do you think about Litecoin, and I invite you to share this analysis with others traders to know my perspective of this crytpocurrrency.
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
1
GBP JPY - Final push to 155Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See our previous analysis here: Monthly imbalances: Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. It is important to note here as to why this area on the low is so significant. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The monthly wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance - with clear evidence of a engineered liquidity wick rejection. Weekly Imbalance write up The reason for buying in at this level is simply due to the imbalance being filled on the weekly at 140.5-70, this zone was the top of a trading range where patience is required here for a Fibonacci retracement back to 137 zone. Upon a rejection to 136.80+ a buy would be prominent. Keeping the outlook in perspective is the key to buying on a higher timeframe, more aligns and there is less noise to worry about regarding reversals, trading ranges. The reason behind the entry point here at 137.80 The monthly and weekly imbalances above the buy zone at 136.69 are geared for longs as the imbalance is yet again filled. Daily Imbalances: Now that 152 target has been reached - this is now in a weekly and daily imbalance where price will look to use the previous daily and weekly former imbalance to create a range for one final push into the next zone . From here price will be monitored watching the all important weekly imbalance at the top of the structural move. The daily imbalances in have been patient levels to signify buys. - Previous analysis has provided clear indicators as to why these are buying opportunities. Profit taking As mentioned in the previous analysis 150, 152, 154 are even numbers to take partial profits. From this trade, profits have been taken leaving a small ending balance to follow through with smaller imbalances maintaining the open interest swaps. Taking into account correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1.40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
EURCHFRight now price is in the accumulation zone we can wait until price breaks the down side that will give confirmation then downtrend will be continued, also we can point out that 1H HH and 1H HL has been taken which shows that there is change of structure for the short time, we can take this opportunity to take the entry in the LTF. Please take the entry based on your own trading plane with the entry rules and follow the proper risk management as usual to stay consistent profitable.
Short
by D_Sarthi
2