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Marketcycles

XLMUSD (Lumen) Stellar DWN2 $.0.38000 then 0.60ish XLMUSD (Lumen) Stellar 05/01/18 9 p.m. EST by MMansfield. Hi trader friends! Stellar Lumen (XLM) appears to be at or near a Wave 3 high. This should be followed by a pullback to 0.3200 area (previous Wave 4 territory) then another wave higher that could take it into the 0.60s. REASONS: The longer-term cycle (blue) is strong up until mid-July so there is still likely much power there. Two of the three Elliott Wave impulse waves tend to be similar in length. Wave 1 was tiny compared to this completing Wave 3. So, with the LT cycles up for 10-11 more weeks, it is reasonable to vote for the remaining 5th wave to look more like Wave 3 than the tiny Wave 1. Thus, another double is possible! The topping Wave 3 (now or soon) idea is supported by the wave structure, the dropping momentum with bearish divergence on some oscillators, and less volume on last push up = short-term weakness. DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Michael Mansfield CIO
BITTREX:XLMUSD
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
6
Zcash/USD (Zcash) Coming Into A Tradeable Low!Zcash/USD (Zcash) setting up for short-term cycle low with the medium-term cycle up. 2018-0510, 6:50 p.m. EST. By Michael Mansfield With current structure, the proportions would fit best to see one more low to complete big Wave B, or Wave 2 of 5 low, at between $254.00 to $249.00 area. It is possible the low is in, but I think not yet. However, if $266-$265 is the low, within a few hours, it makes it a Flat Correction, in Elliott Wave terms. One more low to the $254-$249 area, and its a Flag Formation. Both formations are likely bullish! So either way, a tradeable low rally for two weeks or longer, should be in within 24-48 hours, possibly sooner. NEGATED: The potential bullish breakout scenario would be negated if Zcash broke below the lowest Andrews lower fork's resistance line, currently at 207. PRICE VOLUME ANALYSIS: Bulk visual price/volume distribution resistance area (dashed blue line) is the major resistance area. That price level is currently at $289.00. The blue line is slightly lower at $286.00, so as not to cover up the peak of the graph (located at the right margin of the chart). A break above that "blue dashed bulk volume line," or the "pink Andrews Pitchfork" upper resistance line (currently sloping down), will likely confirm a new uptrend or at least a significant upthrust in the case of a Wave C corrective wave structure. TRADER TIPS: The minimum volume attractor area is shown by the ""dashed red line" and the low price volume distribution graph (also at the right margin of chart). This low volume area can be a magnet for price to quickly magnetize to, then reverse. Sometimes markets go back later to fill those areas to form a duel bell curve distributions. Conversely, the bulk price volume distribution area (think thick part of a bell curve in statistics) are often longer-term support and resistance areas where price has traded at and around that area for a significant amount of time in the past. This is especially when this data parameter is set based on the number of price ticks, price changes, rather than just the amount of volume at a given price). Watch these areas for price changes. CYCLES: The long-term cycle (not viewable at this price scale) is heading down, while the medium-term cycle in green is up. Since long-term cycle moving down will tend to dominate, I would expect a price peak prior to the green up cycle's peak date of July 15th. As with other cycle comments, these are young markets without a lot of price history, so there maybe longer cycles at play, either up or down, that we cannot yet account for. TRADER TIPS: When a larger cycle is down, while a middle-term cycle is up, prices will tend to peak earlier than the short-term cycle's peak date would indicate. The reverse could be true if the long-term cycle was up and the shorter-term cycle was down. In that case, you might expect an earlier bottom. Finally, when both cycles are up, the actual medium-term top will likely come further to the right, time wise. This skew is called "Right Translation." Earlier peaks are called "Left Translation." Cycle lows in stocks tend to be easier to pick out than cycle tops. But over the years I found that in many commodities, cycles tops are far more regular and easier to pick than cycle bottoms. For instance, Gold has a very regular 8-year cycle top. The next 8-year cycle top is due in late 2019-early 2020. That does not mean it will be a higher high. Gold may form a lower high, than the September 2011 high. So a bounce in gold lasting 12-24 months may be underway. Should gold, for example, clear $1550, then hold on for a likely higher high at $2200-5500, in 2019-2020, 8-yrs to 8.6 years from the September 2011 top. Some contracts topped in 2012, if I remember correctly. Digital assets seem to trade more like commodities in this regard. DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Michael Mansfield, CIO
BITFINEX:ZECUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
1
$GAMECREDITS Market Cycle Welcome back Friends and Foes (We dont discriminate)... ...Except maybe Bcash Fan Boys... ;) Today the coin of choice is the mighty GameCredits! I chose this coin because I noticed a solid long term market cycle playing out. Prices have now landed on trending support not once but, on two separate occasions. The second of which came after a major breakout of descending resistance. This indicates that a new emotional market cycle will arise in the old ones place. Only, this one will be far greater! Accumulate while prices are cheap! Buys on the trend line are the safest way to trade market cycles :) See Ya'll on the Moon. :) God Bless, JolleyCrypto
GLong
by UnknownUnicorn846565
14
IOTAUSD (IOTA) Cycles, Tigers & No Bears, Oh My! IOTAUSD 2018-0419 12:49 a.m. EST. Mansfield Hola trader friends! Looking around cryptoland, it's easy to see that many of the main cryptos were kicked off “Down Channel Road” or thrust out of “Falling Wedge-ville. Ah, but they moved up to greener pastures! If you missed the many easy breakout around cryptoland, I have a pending buy setup, so take a look at IOTA. It’s a favorite of mine because: • It’s completely decentralized and is not mined in a traditional sense. Instead, IOTA utilizes the individual computing power of its user's base phones or computers, not dedicated mining farms, to hash and record transactions. You validate your own transaction once you have validated two other transactions within the network/tangle. • It is virtually infinitely scalable. • It can currently supposedly handle 1000+ transactions per second (TPS). Some say it will eventually provide many more TPS. Ripple can supposedly do 1500/tps but it’s a more or less a centralized technology that is your banker’s potential best friend, not the typical crypto crowd’s favorite structure, even it if can make them greener. Meanwhile, Bitcoin can only do 7/tps, with Ethereum at 300/tps. • ITOA is feeless! Why? Because it relies on a new machine to machine transaction protocol via the IOTA Tangle (think blockchain without traditional blocks) that uses a form of Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG=tangle) technology, that looks like an AI neural net schematic. • Offers offline transaction. So what is the catch? What do you think? We would love to hear your opinions. SITUATION: IOTA exploded upwards from it’s falling wedge-AKA diagonal triangle-and granted cryptoland a captivating 75% move off the low! IOTA looks like it is currently just hours-perhaps 1-2 days before the top of its first wave up (labeled 1, medium blue line). After this quick sideways (now?) to lower correction, there will be an opportunity to reenter the likely new uptrend (even if it is a large retracement of the crash) near the upcoming minor Wave 2 low. This buying opportunity will likely be 3-8 days after the Wave 1 high. If this 1st leg ends up with 5 waves, which seems to be the case, then we will very likely be in a new trend phase up, not just a reactionary bounce. (Also see my EOS charts for the pre-breakout trade and cycle and wave projections.) TRADE IDEA: Consider buying ITOA into the pending Wave 2 pullback. After the W2 low, we should see at least one more wave up, even if this is just a correction of the crash. The up move looks impulsive so far, so we should see two more up waves to around 3.10 (w3 area) and 3.65 (w5 area, a 62% retracement). We could possibly see 4.40 (a 78% retracement). So consider being a tiger on this one. Note, that this 5 wave up sequence will likely be a just a larger Wave 1, meaning more to come if this wave count is correct. CYCLES: Note that the longest cycle (blue) is the dominant cycle, as such, it will typically override the other cycles. The best situations arise when two or more of the cycles are heading in the same direction. Choppy markets occur when cycles are out of phase with each other. I have deleted a longer and medium-term cycle for clarity. And, there are other cycles as well, but I think these are the ones to watch for now. The market popped up right on schedule with the longer-term cycle low! The short-term cycle (pink), medium cycle (green) and the longer-term cycle (blue), are currently moving up together with the two shorter-term cycles topping soon. The current medium-term cycle (green) is topping within 24 hours, while the short-term pink cycle tops 3-5 days later, so be ready. However, because the long-term cycle recently turned up, the Wave 2 correction could be brief or sideways as it has traded recently. DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Michael Mansfield CIO
BITFINEX:IOTUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
1
PULLBACK DOESN'T MEAN TREND REVERSALGreat evening ladies and gentlemen, so today we got a pretty unexpected & strong pump. This pump invalidated my initial idea of retesting 5.800$ this week. Since then, we had some sort of consolidation, which made us form a bullflag. Target of the afore mentioned bull flag would be around 8.800$, which would correlate with our previous high/resistance during the end of march. Do I think the bear market is over? Definetly not and there are multiple reasons for that. Once you switch to the logscale, we're still clearly within a downtrend and are far away from breaking resistance. History has proven the log scale is the most reliable source when it comes to analyzing BTC. In addition to that, we haven't had a capitulation yet. There's a reason why professionals rely on market cycles. It's because they repeat themselves over and over again, whether you like it or not. Capitulation and despair are signifcant components when it comes to these and we haven't witnessed them yet. Furthermore, a downtrend does NOT exclude short term rallies. Whether we go up or down, there's always some sort of pullback taking place, which is healthy and nothing uncommon. Thus I'm expecting a short term rally within the next few days before the final leg down. Also notice how we had a similar pattern during the 2k13/2k14 bearmarket. Regards & happy trading.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by ShaheenFahmy
4
EOSUSD (EOS) Pending Wave 2 low for BUY breakout. ELLIOTT W3/(C)EOSUSD (EOS TOKEN) 12 HOUR BARS, 040518, 6:43 pm, EST. Michael Mansfield, CryptoPlayhouse Pending breakout buy ABOVE the recent Wave(I) high of 7.28, or a bit lower for the more aggressive. 1. Selloff since January, while deep, still looks corrective, with wave highs overlapping wave lows, which by definition is corrective in nature, but there are no guarantees in trading! 2. Recent rally from low of 3.87 on March 8th looks to be a clean 5 wave advance off the low. Thus, a potential new impulse trend may be forming that could be a large Wave 3 advance, or possibly a tradable large wave (C) bounce to 9.85-12.50. 3. Pullback from the March 21 high also looks corrective with swing highs overlapping swing lows. 4. Bullish volume spike up from March 18th low to March 21 high, while volume decline sharply during this pullback. 5. RISKS: We are aware of the possible break below blue dotted pitchfork trend-line. If so, that would be very bearish for EOS. 6. BTC cycle analysis suggest intermediate cycle low is due between April 4-10th. if accurate, it should help push things along. 7. BOTTOM LINE: We are positioning for a Wave 3 advance (or large bounce) due to begin within 12-48 hours, else this pullback is more complex. NOTE: Our long-term Bitcoin, DOW and SP500, multi-cycle analysis posts are pending. You will definitely want to see those, so make sure to follow us! ------------------------------------------------------------- OUR TRADE SETUP. We are looking to: BUY: 1 unit @7.35 stop to open (conservative, more confirmation, but bigger stop loss risk); 1 unit @7.12 (more aggressive), BUY ON STOP TO OPEN, for each unit. (And possibly 1 unit on a 15 minute chart pullback IF and once 6.17 is exceeded to the upside. The two day high is 6.14, so watch that closely.) INITIAL STOP LOSS @ 5.11 for the top two main breakout trades. BREAKEVEN AREA @ 9.75-12, so we'll look to take 1/2 profit at break even area, depending on wave pattern and momentum. TRAILING STOP: Will trail stops below lower pitchfork S1 support line, or @ ATR VOLATILITY SAR (not shown, TMI), OCO exit @ smaller upper fork R1 resistance line, OCO exit @ 18.23 profit target, or at largest fork's upper R1 resistance line @ 21.20 area, depending on pattern and momentum. INDICATORS & VOLUME SHOULD CONFIRM BREAKOUT. Do not be fooled into a trade too early just because of this analysis. We wait for the breakouts. If volume does not move up, we reconsider or bail out. NOTE: TRADE OUTLOOK CANCELED IF 4.66 IS BROKEN TO DOWNSIDE BEFORE ANY UNIT IS FILLED. ----------------------- PAST TRADE PERFORMANCE OR ANALYSIS PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING CAN BE VERY RISKY, WITH POTENTIAL OF LARGE GAINS AS WELL AS LARGE LOSSES. This analysis is meant for purely educational purposes. Any trade you happen to take based on our analysis is for your risk of loss or gain. We have NO liability for your decisions to follow us, here or at another other time, due to what we write or do. Trade at your own risk or not at all. Our analysis is the current opinion of the individual author and can change at anytime without notice to those who may have read this. This analysis is neither investment advice nor a guaranteed science, but rather an informed attempt at predicting future movement based on historical data AND emerging patterns! We genuinely hope that you pick up some techniques and learn to profit along the way. If you find this post interesting and helpful, please click like and share widely. Thank you and good luck!
BITFINEX:EOSUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
XRPUSD (RIPPLE) CYCLES/ELLIOTT WAVES/ANDREWS GEOMETRY = UP NOW.XRPUSD (RIPPLE) CYCLES ANDREWS SAY UP 4 NOW. XRP Cryptocurrency token, 12 hour bars, 040918, 5:45 am, EST. Michael Mansfield CIO, CryptoPlayhouse. Hola friends, Ripple has likely found strong price support for at least a 3-7 day bounce and perhaps a strong Elliott Wave trend move up (blue 5 wave sequencing). Alternative count (red ABC corrective waves) would still call for a rally here, but it would be relatively short lived pop or or a drawn out ugly bounce followed by new lows back down to the 0.25-0.20 area. Either way, a new bounce is likely now. 1. Both the short-term and medium-term cycles turned up over the past 24 hours capturing the low timing thus far. 2. StochasticRSI had two higher swing lows, which is bullish, even if in the upper zone now. 3. Volume was consistently declining with the price decline, which bodes well for a nice bounce or more. 4. Up move in December was impulsive (trending), while selloff was corrective, at least the first leg down from the December high until the Feb 6th low. A positive sign as well. 5. Perhaps the two most important items is that XRPUSD stopped right on the lower Andrew’s Pitchfork (thick black line where price bottomed), and exactly when these the cycles said it should have bottomed, which, is not always the case. Best case scenario is a 5 wave advance up to 10.60 area, July 7-12, with the 11th as the center date. The combination of cycles, market geometry and Elliott Waves is the most rational manual way to forecast markets in my decades of experience. Cheers and best wishes, Michael Mansfield
BITFINEX:XRPUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
WHAT IF 5.800$ IS NOT THE BOTTOM?Great evening everybody, yesterday I made a recommendation on when to short BTC. Everybody who followed my advice should have made some money. Enough of the self-praise though, let's get to the analysis. By now you should notice that the similiarties between now and 2013/2014 are NOT neglectable. It's pretty obvious that BTC is moving much faster nowadays. What took us 297 Days in 2013/2014 only took us 108 Days this year. The blue arrows illustrate where BTC price is currently moving. The main thing I want to talk about is this 5.800$ Double Bottom everybody is anticipating. To be honest with you, I highly doubt that 5.800$ will be the bottom. In terms of market cycles, we haven't witnessed capitulation yet, which is an important compoment, when it comes to an overall trend reversal. Capitulation usually feels like apocalpyse is happening. Also notice how during the 2k14 drop, BTC fell straight through the previous bottom and gave us a fake bottom around 20% BELOW the previous one, spiked up, and rolled over again to the actual bottom, which was around 150$. Personally, I think we will see the same thing in the near future. From a measured move perspective, we could see some bottoming behaviour at around 4.700$, price shooting upwards BEFORE the actual bottom, which could be around 2.600$. Take it for what it is and make sure to prepare yourself. I'm going to hold my shorts and take partial profits until we've reached 5.000$. Once we've reached that level, I'm watching out for some sort of bottoming behavior in order to take some long positions and close them before the final wave down. Have a nice day & safe trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by ShaheenFahmy
4
JUST ANTOHER BULLTRAP? Patience is key. There's something interesting to notice. Everytime we're having a BTC bounce towards a LOWER HIGH, people all of a sudden become euphoric & bullish, claiming the bear market is over. There is no reason to be bullish at all. Old supports are turned into new resistances. Right now, BTC is doing nothing but confirming a new resistance around 7.400$ - 7.500$, which used to be a key support level. Elliot Wave count indicates that we are moving within WAVE 5, heading towards 5.500$. Why 5.500$? Because it has been confirmed multiple times as a key support level. In addition to that, we got a bearish divergence on the 4H Chart, nothing happy about that. Voulume is decreasing. I'm using the current bounce to add new short positions. Have a nice day & happy trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by ShaheenFahmy
8
DOUBLE BOTTOM BEFORE CAPITULATION?! I love to boil things down to an essence. Everytime BTC broke through one of the white support lines, it took an average of 6-7 days to achieve a new spike low. Thus I expect BTC to retest 5.8k$ in the course of the next week, forming a double bottom. Stoch RSI is moving within the oversold range, so a bounce from there is not to be excluded. Anyways, I don't expect 5,8K$ to be the bottom everyone is talking about. During the 2k13/2k14 drop, we witnessed an overall retracement of around 85%, which in this case ,would bring us to the 2-3k range. Thus we might bounce from 5.800$, attempting to break through the longterm resistance formed since December, failing, and have a capitulation taking place. When it comes to trading and investing, market cycles matter big time. They are not to be neglected, because they always repeat themselves, whether you like it or not. Greed and optimism is always followed by fear, depression and capitulation. Same goes the other way round. As a good investor, you want to become greedy when everyone is being fearful. You want to be fearful, take partial profits, when everyone becomes greedy. For the majority of people, capitulation is related with huge losses. For the smart investor, it is related with maximal financial oppotunity, because capitulation is where a new, positive, market cycle begins. fifthperson.com Have a great day!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by ShaheenFahmy
Buy Ethereum In between April and JuneBitcoin dominance is coming back. In the past 3 months we have seen bitcoin take back 10% of the cryptocurrency market. That money put into bitcoin is not being brought in from outside the market, but instead being stripped away from alt coins. In my opinion ETH is a project worthy of many more billions to come, but today is no time to be buying ETH simply because of market cycles. If you take a look at the bitcoin dominance graph on coin market cap you will see that bitcoin is regaining traction. I believe bitcoin will double top at around 50-60% dominance, then alt coins will rally. ETH being one of them. From a technical standpoint, ETH looks like its correction is not over. ETH has crossed both the 50 day and 100 day moving averages and is about to cross the 200 day. There were no signs of support at the 0.5 Fibonacci level, and I believe there is a small chance of ETH finding support on the 0.236 Fibonacci line. This is a rapid fall. I believe ETH will have a double bottom in price at around 25,000 Satoshi. And around the time ETH double bottoms, Alts will have another rally and ETH will rise from the dead. I don't know my exact target sell price yet, to determine that i will have to see what the bitcoin dominance looks like in a few months. I will keep you updated. I think ETH can be a very good trade if the stars align, so start saving up, and get ready to buy in at 25,00 Satoshi. Happy Saint Patrick's Day, Colm
Long
by CryptoColm