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ORBEX: With US-China Done, All Eyes on Brexit Now!The US and China signed a partial deal yesterday, putting a temporary stop to global uncertainty! Without that being the end of the trade war, at least we can now wait and see if China respects the signed terms over the next few months... Are emerging markets affected by the fresh rhetoric since China is supported, or should we just focus on monetary policy, particularly in South Africa today? Market participants will now look at the EU and UK for a resolution on the Brexit front. Will the House of Lords prevent a January exit? And how will the EC react about an 11-month transition if they won't? Watch our analyses on euro-pound and the SA rand! Timestamp EURGBP 8H 02:15 USDZAR 8H 04:45 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
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ORBEX: Look at SPX Volumes for Further Clues!Despite the US-China phase one trade deal supporting equities the upside could be minimized if priced in already since as indices have been moving up since the December truce! Geopolitics suggest more strength, however, technicals indicate otherwise! Will corporate earnings trigger a shift from a macro perspective? Well, either that or weaker US inflation data! It seems that equities hang on earnings and inflation, whereas the US index only on inflation data. Timestamps SPX 8H 01:30 DXY 8H 04:25 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
TVC:DXY
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ORBEX: EU/UK Free-Trade Agreement Under ThreatWith US-Iran de-escalation traders shift their focus on Brexit talks and safe-haven outflows! The new EC President threw doubt into a free-trade agreement in her visit in the UK to initiate talks. And this could have a reversal effect on the uncertainty we saw removed over the past few weeks. Watch me analyze GBPNZD and CADJPY for further technical insights and as I apply Elliott waves. Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
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ORBEX: Gold & Oil Soar on Iran's Military Retaliation!Iran retaliated against US with ballistic missiles instead of disrupting oil shipments, facing one enemy at a time as China is a big importer. Gold and crude soared to fresh highs after Iran attacked a US military base in Iraq. Oil gains, however, were discounted early, perhaps due to EIA’s later report, but gold remains bid near $1600/oz. Watch our analyses for further technical insights and as we apply Elliott waves. Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
FX_IDC:USDWTI
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ORBEX: FX Majors Remain Bid int he New Year! Will It Last?The FX majors stretched into 2020 firm, spelling a strong term against a weaker #dollar! Will this continue being the case though when uncertainty around #tradewar and #Brexit remain elevated? Take a peek at our #elliottwave analysis for some technical insight at least. Timestamps EURUSD 1H 01:45 USDJPY 1H 03:30 GBPUSD 1H 05:50 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
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ORBEX: Equities Rally Continues But Risks Remain Elevated!Equities and the US Index hit the levels we expected last week, however, participants remain encouraged on “phase one” and Brexit conclusions. Will the rally keep on in 2020 or have investors really misplaced the recent concessions? The risk of deteriorating relations remains elevated in our opinion! Timestamp DXY 4H 00:20 SPX 4H 02:45 NASDAQ 4H 04:55 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
TVC:NDQ
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ORBEX: Risk Up on LOWER TARIFFS As China Announces Import Cuts!China announced they will be lowering tariffs on a number of items come January 1st, making markets looking more festive ahead of Christmas! Aussie and Kiwi took the headlines with a positive tone, however, Cable kept entering lower territories on the back on post-election no-deal fears! Will the Santa rally continue? Have a look at our Elliott Wave analysis for further clues! Timestamp AUDUSD 2H 01:15 NZDUSD 2H 04:10 GBPUSD 2H 06:20
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ORBEX: Will the US Avoid A Gov Shutdown This Year?In this market insights, I talk about the reason #FX Majors were muted; on the back of a shift to riskier assets i.e. the equities I dive into euro, pound, dollar and the safe-haven yen to provide you with my short-term analysis. I also talk about what to focus on for the rest of the week and with crunch talks around the allocation of US’s $1.3tn spending continuing, it is certainly going to be an interesting one as fears of another shutdown linger! Timestamps for each pair: EURUSD 1H 01:30 USDJPY 1H 03:40 GBPUSD 1H 05:00 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
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ORBEX: Trump Triggers Recovery Trade while Pound Soars!In today’s market insights I talk about Trump’s latest comments surrounding the US-Sino rhetoric and why they have triggered a full or partial recovery in risk assets! Watch me analyse risk vs safety using Elliott Waves, as well as the incredible surge in the British pound! It seems that BoJo’s chances to win the elections are cracking fresh multi-month price levels! Will this continue being the case? Timestamps #EURGBP 1D 01:05 #AUDJPY 4H 04:40 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
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ORBEX: Trump Dents Markets Days Before OPEC+In today’s market insights I talk about the massive Trump sell-off seen in the markets following his comments that a phase 1 trade deal could be now dragged later than the 2020 election. Gold and Oil were affected by the pessimistic rhetoric as participants received the delay announcement! The yellow metal appreciated while Crude oil jaw-dropped days ahead of the critical OPEC+ meeting in Vienna. Watch me analyse the two #Commodities and what I expect in the short and medium-term using #ElliottWaves! Timestamps XAUUSD 1H 01:40 WTI 1H 04:15 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
FX_IDC:USDWTI
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ORBEX: "Tariff-Man” Return Risk-Positive, PMIs Weighs on Dollar!In today’s market insights I talk about Trump’s latest tactical move to intimidate China into a partial deal! With China having retaliated for the HK bills and manufacturing data confirming that the trade spat is now weighing on on the US economy, risk appetite returns with the Tariff Man! Will tariffs against Brazil and Argentina push China in the corner, or the dollar itself? Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
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ORBEX: Has the Santa Rally Started Already?In today’s market insights I explain why equities are not affected by reports that China wants existing tariffs removed in order to proceed with phase one of a deal! Perhaps, investors couldn't care less about the consistent back and forth between US and China before they go home for Christmas... I reveal how I expect the S&P500 to perform in December, and while at it, I also analyse the US index! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
TVC:DXY
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ORBEX: Pound Supported As MRP Vote Share Predicts Tory Win!In today’s market insights I talk about YouGov’s MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) poll and how predicting UK’s vote share with 93% accuracy in the past supports the British Pound! Aside from politics potentially moving the UK markets today, we have important GDP data coming out from Canada too. And this is likely to affect loonie. The recording explains what I am expecting in the short and also medium-term for both GBPUSD and USDCAD. Don't miss out on information that can help! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
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ORBEX: Trump Signs HK Bills, Denting Trade Optimism AGAIN!In today’s market insights I talk about Trump’s latest move to support HK protesters by signing two bills, denting optimism around the recent trade war optimism! The shift in sentiment was expected but how risk vs havens performed may seem confusing to some when looking at CADJPY and AUDCHF. Here I explain how the yen and franc are likely to perform against high beta commodity currencies Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
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ORBEX: Gold Up Despite Trade Flows, WTI Muted on API OffsetIn today’s market insights I talk about how the latest trade war and API developments affected the prices of gold and oil. Gold appreciated while trade optimism increased! That was owed to poor US data, however! But I do expect the upside to be limited! Crude, although supported by positive trade ware narratives, ended the session muted as bullish flows were seen offset by a build in the weekly API report! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
FX_IDC:USDWTI
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ORBEX: Brexit Hopes Up on Tory Lead, Trade News Fail to Lift FX!In today’s market insights video recording I talk about the pound rally and how the cable is likely to perform now that polls show a comfortable Tory lead! I also explain why #Aussie isn’t moving higher while risk-on mood increases high-beta bets amid the latest #tradewar headlines that a deal is indeed possible before Christmas! What are markets waiting for? Watch what Elliott waves have to say! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
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ORBEX: Weekend Trade News Likely to Affect SPX, DXY!In today’s marketinsights video recording, I talk about SPX and DXY . SPX takes a breather from all-time highs offering some pocket-relief to short-term bulls, however, with weekend trade headline news the rally could continue higher. The US index looks bid too despite the medium-term bearishness as the economy performs incredibly well, supporting the dollar. From a technical perspective, there's more room to the upside for both. The index, however, will most likely have a harder trip moving higher as its upside is limited. Unless if of course a sharp bullish move occurs, taking out breakeven stops and then reversing rapidly to everyone's surprise. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
OANDA:SPX500USD
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ORBEX: Dollar Weakness Drives Euro and Yen Higher!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about EURUSD and USDJPY FX Majors Both major pairs were affected by incoming trade war flows, following China's rather pessimistic view on proceeding with a phase-1 of a potential trade deal. Euro could move towards 1.11 round resistance and yen could push the dollar down near the 108 round support. The above scenarios have validating signals that you can find watching this video! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
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ORBEX: EQUITIES REACH FRESH ALL TIME HIGHS!In today’s marketinsights video recording, I talk about SPX and DXY . SPX keeps hitting fresh highs despite Fed's message to keep rates on hold until 2020. Trade wars do seem to be influencing flows more than anything else right now? Whatever the case, sharp upside and overbought hints to exhaustion! The DXY's recent upside though should be watched closely. It's either an expanded flat or a zig-zag correction, so, could expect either a decline or a correction. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
TVC:DXY
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ORBEX: Risk Sentiment Up On Trade Negotiations Impasse In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #crude #oil and #gold. WTI moved higher yesterday on a surprise #API draw, whereas gold, although would be expected to move down against oil, also moved up on the back of the latest trade negotiations impasse. With the market's appetite shifting to rollbacks but not getting the response they want from the US, gold could move a tad higher. But technicals see the upside limited to a correction. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
FX_IDC:USDWTI
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ORBEX: NZDUSD, USDJPY: Traders Taken By Surprise #RBNZ #TrumpIn today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about NZDUSD and USDJPY FX Majors Not only markets expected with 80% chance that RBNZ will cut rates which they never got, but the central bank also said that kiwi is expected to be supported in the medium term by the low exchange and interest rates. USDJPY on the other hand, remained somewhat muted as Trump didn't provide any insights on the trade war situation. Despite the dollar's early gains, yen managed to win back some strength following a report that the US is considering imposing tariffs on EU automakers! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
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ORBEX: GBPUSD,EURUSD: Brexit Party Won't Contest Conservatives!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #GBPUSD and #EURUSD #FXMajors #Pound surged higher yesterday following headlines that Nigel Farage, Brexit Party's leader, will not contest Conservative seats ahead of the Dec 12 elections! On the economic front, the UK was marginally away from a recession, the latest GDP figures showed. With #employment data on the spotlight, #cable is the intraday pair that traders could find opportunities on. #EURUSD was somewhat supported by a weaker #dollar. The #greenback was seen falling on #Trump's rollback comments, as he denied having agreed on a tariff rollback with China. German #ZEW data will provide clues on #euro's direction. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
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