EUR/USD Institutional Trading StrategyHello, guys! It's been a while since last I posted here on TradingView. I'm today releasing into the wild my trading strategy, key levels, order arrangement and overall method for trading specifically the EUR/USD, as I've specialised on trading this particular market 24/5 now. This is basically my level fading strategy and method to trade the Euro-Dollar, based off major daily round figures (even numbers), only using limit orders as entries, and stops above or below intermediary daily round figures (odd numbers). This is a time-tested strategy, it takes a great deal of discipline and patience, it carries a substantial amount of drawdown and with impending high-impact economic releases (Fed/ECB interest rate decisions, NFP and so on), which often result in impulsive trending phases, this is deadly and it is not recommended. This works well for swing/position traders just like myself, and for the EUR/USD overall.
Leave your comments on what you guys think about this strategy, its flaws and weaknesses, your experiences with similar range fading strategies, or any other kinds of feedback or questions that you might think of, I'll read every single one of them, that I guarantee.
See you all around and good trading :)
Marketmaker
What is impulse and how to make money on it?What is impulse and how to make money on it?
Momentum is a sharp paranormal price movement in one direction or another, unusual for average daily fluctuations of an asset
How to build zones from which impulse movement is most likely to occur?
1) The price is pushed back from the previously built level
2) There is an impulse movement in the other direction
3) Correction to the level, from which the price pushed a little
4) consolidation, consolidation below the level, from which there will be an impulse movement
How it works?
1) the level above which the price consolidates and repels
2) Rollback from the price level at the moment
3) Impulse that breaks the level
4) We need to extend the level to understand where the key point will be
5) Fixing the price below the level
6) In anticipation of an impulse movement, at the very beginning of the movement, after fixing, we open an order
*** Works in the same way in long
What do you need to do, what to earn on this?
1) If you use impulses not all in a row, but the very first one after a trend reversal, then we have a chance to pick up all the movements, it all depends on your benchmarks, where you exit the market, according to your strategies.
2) Not every impulse level is the first, we estimate the situation from strong levels, from which the price can reverse
3) We focus on the opening of the session, the chance that the market will reverse at the end of the working day and give you less profit if it is at the beginning.
It is important to understand:
Price moves from level to level
The price does not always fix directly below / above the level
You can work both on the younger (m5, m15, m30, h1, ch4) and on the higher timeframes (d1, b1, m1)
The older the timeframe, the stronger the level from which an impulse can follow
During an impulse, funds are injected, a large player enters the market or a major player exits the market, stops-losses are collected, i.e. removal of market participants.
Our goal is to follow a major player who leads the price and get profit from it
DeGRAM | GOLD short Gold doesn't go higher.
The bears are trying to drive the instrument back beyond the level into the boundaries of the downtrend.
I expect a return beyond the level, a correction and a fall to the level of 1765
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DeGRAM | GBPUSD descends to supportThe pound is falling.
Impulse movement is approaching a strong support level.
After the distributive insertion, the tool enters the consolidation phase and will be in flat for some time,
I think that after testing the 1.35 level, the price will roll back, tentatively, to 1.37
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DeGRAM | BTCUSD short The cryptocurrency has tested the level of 30,000.
Bitcoin does not react in any way to positive news, there is pressure on the instrument.
I think that if the tool does not cross and go higher, but reverses from the nearest resistance, then the price can break through the level of 30,000 and go down to 28,000, and then 25,000
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DeGRAM | EURUSD changing the global trend?On the weekly timeframe, we see a breakdown of the strong resistance level formed in April 2008, the global downtrend lasted 12 years.
In November 2020, the instrument breaks through the upper border of the price channel and grows to resistance, after which it returns to a correction to the border of the channel.
The instrument was unable to update the local high and enters a retest, a movement immediately consolidating at the level,
I think that there may be a deep false breakout and further growth towards the breakdown.
I stick to the long-term target - the upper boundary of the new upward price channel.
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DeGRAM | GOLD short Gold rolls back after a false breakout. It is quite difficult for the instrument to determine the direction, too much news affecting the instrument.
I am still waiting for the fall,
I suppose that the price will not be able to update the top and will return beyond the level.
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DeGRAM | AUDUSD keep fallingThe currency pair continues to fall.
The pressure of the bulls is quite strong.
The price has gone beyond the support level and I assume that a pullback to the nearest resistance is possible.
Globally, I'm waiting for a fall, I'm interested in the support level - 0.722
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DeGRAM | USDCHF breakout resistanceThe instrument is trading at the upper border of the channel.
After retesting the border, the tool did not roll back deeply, but goes into one more retest.
Perhaps there was pressure from buyers and I suggest either a deep false breakout, or a breakout, exit from the channel and further growth to resistance 0.947
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DeGRAM | EURUSD long from support The currency pair is trading above the support level in the upward price channel.
The entire market is correcting downward. I think a deep false break is possible.
We need a signal in the video of a price rise for the level and consolidation above the level.
I expect a rise to resistance
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Major fundamental news affecting The PriceFundamental news in the forex market provides the greatest energy for price movement. Only often these movements are unpredictable.
I have a news trading strategy in my feed titled "How to trade The News Correctly" ,
I recommend it to study if you have an aggressive trading style and want to earn even more on news
1)
Employment figures
The most important news event that all speculators and investors are guided by
is non-farm pay. This news event increases several times, at the time of the news
release, the volatility of the main instruments on which traders earn. The NFP
usually comes out on the first Friday of every new month.
2)
Balance figures
An indicator characterizing the difference between the value of
exported / imported goods and services
3)
Speeches and minutes
Last mention of key speeches and minutes such as ...
1) DOMC Statements and Press Conferences
2) Voting on MPC ratings and speeches by the Governor of the Bank of England
3) Press conferences of the ECB and speeches by the President of the ECB
4)
Retail Sale figures
the indicator characterizes the strength of consumer demand. Its growth indicates
an increase in the production of goods, a strengthening of the economy and currency.
Included in the calculation of GDP
5)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Reflects the shift in the cost of core consumer goods and services
6)
Expected and Forecasted Figures on the way out news
1) Positively affects the strengthening of the currency when the actual
figures after the release of the news turned out to be better than the predicted ones
2) Badly affect the strengthening of the currency when the actual numbers
are worse than expected
7)
Any kind of news that is spoken during these events has a very strong effect on all
foreign exchange and not only markets. Traders navigate and trade depending on
how they think a certain currency of the respective country can react.
❗ ❗ ❗ Constructiveness in trading: follow the news when trading and try not to open orders for half an hour, at the time of release and after the release of news for half an hour ❗ ❗ ❗
Major fundamental news affecting The PriceFundamental news in the forex market provides the greatest energy for price movement. Only often these movements are unpredictable.
I have a news trading strategy in my feed titled "How to trade The News Correctly" ,
I recommend it to study if you have an aggressive trading style and want to earn even more on news
1)
Employment figures
The most important news event that all speculators and investors are guided by
is non-farm pay. This news event increases several times, at the time of the news
release, the volatility of the main instruments on which traders earn. The NFP
usually comes out on the first Friday of every new month.
2)
Balance figures
An indicator characterizing the difference between the value of
exported / imported goods and services
3)
Speeches and minutes
Last mention of key speeches and minutes such as ...
1) DOMC Statements and Press Conferences
2) Voting on MPC ratings and speeches by the Governor of the Bank of England
3) Press conferences of the ECB and speeches by the President of the ECB
4)
Retail Sale figures
the indicator characterizes the strength of consumer demand. Its growth indicates
an increase in the production of goods, a strengthening of the economy and currency.
Included in the calculation of GDP
5)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Reflects the shift in the cost of core consumer goods and services
6)
Expected and Forecasted Figures on the way out news
1) Positively affects the strengthening of the currency when the actual
figures after the release of the news turned out to be better than the predicted ones
2) Badly affect the strengthening of the currency when the actual numbers
are worse than expected
7)
Any kind of news that is spoken during these events has a very strong effect on all
foreign exchange and not only markets. Traders navigate and trade depending on
how they think a certain currency of the respective country can react.
❗ ❗ ❗ Constructiveness in trading: follow the news when trading and try not to open orders for half an hour, at the time of release and after the release of news for half an hour ❗ ❗ ❗
DeGRAM | GOLD false breakout. ShortGold has returned to the downtrend.
Now we can say that it was a false breakout of the trend.
I expect a slight rollback from the upper border of the accumulative flat to the resistance level and a further fall to the lower border of the accumulative flat to the price - 1764
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DeGRAM | EURGBP false breakout? The currency pair behaves quite unpredictably, does not react adequately to the correlated pair - the pound / dollar.
It returns behind the level and, moreover, tries to break through the upper border of the downtrend.
I think that a false breakout and a rollback to strong support is possible.
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DeGRAM | GBPJPY growth from support lineThe currency pair locally changes the trend to a downtrend and continues to fall.
On the way, the price has a strong support level.
I think that the price can bounce back or make a false breakout and roll back to the resistance of 151.9, which is what I expect.
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DeGRAM | EURUSD growth from levelLast week, the currency pair tested a strong support level, which had not previously been broken through, formed from the peak of March 2020.
I suppose that the instrument will roll back from the level, with a possible trend change, but will there be a false breakout before that?
The key target that interests me is the resistance at 1.235
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DeGRAM | GOLD higher resistanceGold went beyond the downward resistance.
Possible rollback before growth.
I also expect a reaction from the upper level in the form of a rollback.
The situation is quite difficult, because the instrument can also make a false breakout and go back beyond the level.
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DeGRAM | BTCUSD breakout supportThere are no buyers in Bitcoin.
It does not update local tops after a strong fall from 60,000.
Selling pressure, pushing the price towards support, heralds a breakdown of the lower border of the flat.
I expect the price of the instrument to fall.
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DeGRAM | USDCAD breakout resistance. GrowthThe instrument broke through the price channel upwards, consolidated and gave impulsive movement, which confirms the trend change.
Ahead is local resistance, to which I am guided.
I look forward to growth to 1.275
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DeGRAM | EURUSD long The Eurodollar is trading at the lower border of the price channel.
At every attempt to buy it out, they immediately try to sell it, there is strong pressure on the instrument.
The level is strong enough.
I expect a rollback or reversal of the local trend from the support level of 1.178
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DeGRAM | GOLD pullback from levelGold is bought back and the price is restored by breaking through the trend resistance level.
Ahead is the border of the ascending price channel, from which I expect a rollback to the support level.
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DeGRAM | GBPAUD keep growing from support The price continues to rise after the breakdown of the upper savings line.
A growing price channel has also been formed.
The price is correcting to the lower border, from which I expect continued growth, the urgent target is a strong resistance - 1.877
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