Easy money on Gold Sell setup!!! 200 PipsI just broke down the anlysis on gold for those who don't like to watch video this is a quick recap.
Gold market cycle 2020
--> Gold repeated the same move with curved formation, before a massive drop
--> Gold was at its all-time high at 2020 similar to now
--> Gold has reaccumulation phase in 2020 similar like what is happening with the third leg formation of Elliot wave theory
--> above all the risk to rewards look good to me
Follow me for more breakdown. please comment below if I should do more videos or normal written post or both
Marketprofile
Bouhmidi-Bands and Overnight Session - Name of the Game The overnight range was the name of the game today. As mentioned earlier, we were looking for a potential break in either direction. After establishing the initial balance, we saw a test of the overnight session low (5019), which was successfully defended. Subsequently, buyers entered the market, leading to a push higher in $ES. This move broke the high of the overnight session (5036), confirming bullish momentum and surpassing the previous day high (5058) & upper #BouhmidiBand, reaching a peak at 1.3s BB (5074). In the last 1.5 hours, NYSE:ES retraced back within the Bouhmidi-Bands.
ZS got too short, LONG opportunityNASDAQ:ZS has been very "bearish" for almost month but we're still in a monthly uptrend. At the same time there are bearish exhaustion signs: weekly bearish upthrust has diminished, and value area has been overlapping for the last three days. This creates opportunity to capture possible short-squeeze.
It is a high risk trade given the context but upside can be huge. Exercise with caution.
You can see example of possible trade on the chart (conservative profit target)
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
Market Profile vs Volume Profile: Which one is a better tool?There is an ongoing discussion within the trading community about which tool is better for analyzing market behavior: Market Profile (MP) or Volume Profile (VP). The former was popularized by Jim Dalton in his book "Mind Over Markets," while the latter has many advocates as well, including Peter Reznicek (aka ShadowTrader). With the release of the new "Time Price Opportunities" (TPO) indicator by TradingView, we can now closely examine the disparities between the two and explore which one works better.
For starters, I won't delve into explaining what Market Profile is and all its related artifacts (e.g., TPO, single-prints, poor high/low, etc.). TradingView has done a commendable job explaining key concepts in the indicator description. For those seeking more, Jim Dalton's "Markets in Profile" is a recommended resource, an easier and more up to date reading than the original book. Additionally, there are numerous free webinars available on YouTube.
Both MP and VP serve similar purposes:
1. Assess day character by analyzing shape of intraday distribution (price-time/price-volume)
2. Identify important levels that are not visible on the standard bar chart (VAH, VAL, POC)
3. Spot structural weaknesses and anomalies.
The key difference is in the basic building block: Market Profile uses time at certain price level whereas Volume Profile uses volume.
Let’s look at AMEX:SPY chart to explore the differences
What stands out is that intraday distributions are nearly identical. There are slight differences in key levels (VAH, VAL, POC) but they are negligible. Note how on Wednesday, the price first retests Tuesday's VAH, then Monday's VAL, then again Tuesday's VAH. After confirming support, it rallies up the next day.
From the perspective of the stated goals, we can efficiently achieve the first two, regardless of the tool we use. The third goal is a bit tricky and requries a seperate long discussion. So I won't dwell on it here
In overall, we can see that Market and Volume profiles are pretty much alike and it doesn’t make much difference which one you’ll be using.
Or does it? So far, we looked at the regular hours chart (RTH). What about futures and similar instruments that trade 24 hours? Let's look at CME_MINI:NQ1! chart
Here, the difference in distributions and levels is much more pronounced. The best example is Friday where not only POCs are completely misaligned but even the shapes of distribution (MP is more like a bullish p-shape, whereas VP is a bearish trend day).
The disparity in distributions is explained by the difference in volume traded during regular hours (high volume) and extended hours (low volume). Due to this asymmetry, Volume Profile is always heavily skewed towards RTH. Meanwhile, Market Profile is session-neutral, giving the same weight to overnight and regular hours TPOs.
Understanding of disparity doesn’t answer question of which tool is better. For example, when it comes to key levels, price sometimes respects MP levels and sometimes VP ones. My take is that we need to pay attention to both when they are pronounced. Good example is Tuesday’s prominent MP POC. Although it was built up overnight on low volume, it was revisited the day after and acted as resistance.
To conclude:
For tickets that trade primarily in the regular session (or if you look on RTH session chart only) there is no difference whether to use Market or Volume profile. Both provide same information. (note that volume data on lower timeframes depends on your broker and/or whether you buy real-time data from exchange; reliability of volume data is a separate discussion topic).
If you’re trading 24h instruments I find more useful using MP as it can give important information about non-regular low-volume sessions. For RTH, it will still give the same results as VP. You can also use a combination of two but then you’ll face a challenge of reconciling difference in distribution shape (like the Friday example). As there is no clear answer how to do it, I recommend sticking to one tool at a time.
P.S. I have not done any research on very low timeframe (<5m) for intraday accumulations/distributions. As MP was originally developed to analyze day character (Jim Dalton suggests using 30m TPO) it might not be well suited for lower timeframes (e.g. if you trade within 1h range), and this is the area where VP has advantage. Another point to consider is that currently TradingView provides a wider range of VP tools, incl fixed range, anchored, etc…
Watching for Possible shorts daily sibi has been creating resistance for the last 11 days, the dealing range is in bullish and price is in a premium, the volume has been weakening on the rally up, however supply has not stepped in the market to bring prices lower, so we can be in a manipulation/consolidation of the market
4hr and lower is making bearish structure so I'm anticipating price continuing lower to
15725.00
i would like to to see price retrace around 15847.00 before dropping down into this level
Nifty 50. 27th November 2023.(Language Hindi)We have talked about the nifty 50. Its past and present levels. We have seen what kind of conditions are available for traders to trade On We have provided few levels to watch. If those levels breaks, then we can see movement In those directions after confirmation closings.
XAUUSDXAU/USD could stage a rebound if $1,810 support holds.
✏️ Gold price meanders in fresh seven-month lows below $1,820 on Tuesday.
✏️ US Dollar, US Treasury bond yields continue cheering US economic resilience.
✏️ Gold price is heavily oversold on the daily chart; a rebound could be in the offing.
Signals
BUY @ 1805 - 1803 SL @ 1978
TP 1 @ 1810
TP 2 @ 1825
TP 3 @ 1832
TP 4 @ 1850
TP 5 @ 1862
BTCUSDT's Epic Showdown: Weekly EMA Battle for SupremacyHello Traders! :)
In this week's analysis, we witnessed an intriguing battle at the weekly EMA level for BTC. Unfortunately, this level held firm, and we are currently seeing accumulation around the lower boundary of the weekly Market Profile. At this level, we can observe the development of the weekly Market Profile's point of control, signifying a significant equilibrium point. My plan for this week is to make another attempt to break above the weekly EMA level.
Currently, a LONG signal has been generated on the Multi-timeframe MACD, indicating a green light for seeking long positions at this juncture. I will initiate the trade after the LONG signal is confirmed by a Heikin Ashi candle.
My initial take profit target is set upon reaching the level of the weekly EMA line, with potential for holding the position longer depending on price behavior.
I will exit the trade if the price falls below the weekly Market Profile, canceling out potential further losses. Additionally, I will consider exiting the trade if the weekly EMA level is rejected, securing any generated profits. If the price successfully breaches the EMA level and holds, I will consider continuing the trade.
Good luck with your trades!
KAVAUSDT is testing important levels, potential +10% from here
Hello Traders:)
Currently, the level of the top line of the Market profile from Monday is being tested. Previously, after breaking this level, KAVAUSDT exploded over 30% up. Currently, after returning and positively testing this level, I assume a return to at least the upper limits of the market profile from the previous days, which will give us at least 10% increase in KAVAUSDT. Negation of the scenario after breaking through today's lower limit of the market profile.
I wish you great trades!
DAX Monday SHORT setup. 200 points range. Market Profile/ VWAP
Hello Traders:)
I expect a morning rebound after the market opens to the red line levels. Hence, I will look for an opening of shorts with targets marked with green lines. The first level of short is the upper limit of the market profile for both Thursday and Friday. This level has been tested many times. The second level of potential short play is the upper limit of the weekly VWAP, which was tested on Thursday with a dynamic decline. Take profit first is the middle level of Thursday's Market Profile, while my second target is the bottom level of Thursday's Market Profile. I am planning to enter a small position at level 1, with a stop loss above the 2nd target. The rest of the items I include only after testing the second level. Depending on the situation, I can exit 50% after reaching target 1, or hold 100% of the position until target 2. The planned range of a potential trade - 200 points.
I wish you all a great trading week!
Showcase of the Power of Market Profile AnalysisMarket Profile analysis is a powerful tool for traders and investors alike to analyze price movements in financial markets. The method is based on the concept that price moves in a predictable way, forming patterns that can be observed and analyzed.
The Market Profile chart is a visual representation (not shown here) of market activity, displaying the distribution of price over time. The chart is divided into horizontal sections, each representing a price level. The length of the bar indicates the duration of time during which trades occurred at that price level.
The Market Profile chart can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as areas of high and low volume. The three key components of the Market Profile chart are the Point of Control (POC), the Value Area, and the Single Prints.
The Point of Control (POC) is the price level at which the highest volume of trades occurred during the period under analysis. It represents the most actively traded price level during that time frame, and is often seen as a key support or resistance level.
The Value Area is the range of price levels that contain a specified percentage of the total trading volume during the period under analysis. The Value Area can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as potential trading opportunities.
Single Prints are price levels where trading activity occurred but did not overlap with any other price levels during the period under analysis. These are areas where price discovery occurred, and can be used to identify areas of potential price support or resistance.
By analyzing the Market Profile chart, traders can gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. The chart can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as potential trading opportunities based on the volume and duration of trading activity at specific price levels.
Between end of Dec 2022 and end of Jan 2023, the price of the S&P 500 index (SPX) showed major reactions to the price levels drawn by using Market Profile analysis that was done in Oct 2022 . This is a prime example of the power of this trading method. By identifying key levels of support and resistance, traders were able to make more informed trading decisions and take advantage of market opportunities.
In conclusion, Market Profile analysis is a powerful tool for traders and investors who want to gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. By analyzing the distribution of price and volume over time, traders can identify key levels of support and resistance, and take advantage of market opportunities. The example of the S&P 500 index (SPX) in October of last year showcases the power of this trading method, and demonstrates how it can be used to make profitable trades in a dynamic and ever-changing market.
Trade Plan 12/22/2022
P-Shape Formation = Short Covering + Strong Buyers
*Possible end to a downtrend if we can confirm the market structure change.
TP1> If we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 3905, I want to see a break above previous POC 3914 (BEARS LIS) to support the upside trade. After than we can go for 3934 > 3960 > 3980 3995.
TP2> If we manage to Trade below MAIN POC 3905, the downside is 3886 > 3874, where maybe we can have a BULL Fight, if lost we can ride back to 3858 > 3850 Naked POC.
*All trades must be taken after IB (Initial Balance) 9:45am-10:00am
#tradesafe #sizekills
How to trade using Value Areas and POC?A few key concepts when using Market Profile in your trading:
1) Point of Control (POC) acts as price magnets, as they represent the price level where most time was spent during a trading day. Price tends to gravitate towards them.
2) Naked (Not visited) POC acts as stronger magnets than visited POCs.
3) When price enters / breaks into a Value Area, which represents a range of "fair value", price tends to visit the other end of the Value Area. For example above, the price breaks up from the Value Area Low before end of day yesterday, hit the Value Area High this morning.
You definitely won't find these key levels and ranges with traditional support and resistance lines drawing methods. Using Market Profile will give you the edge to become a better trader.
See my previous 2 posts: