BANK NIFTYImportant levels for 04/08/2022.
Yesterday's analysis for today worked out perfectly and we got 2 good trades as per our levels.
For tomorrow's expiry 38400 and 37750 are the reference levels to watch out. The range from 37740-37810 has been acting as a good support zone and has been tested multiple times in the last few sessions. Similarly on the upside 38400 is VPOC from 4th April and should act as a resistance.
So, if we see a flat open, we shall wait for the price to sustain above 38200 and then take longs for targets of 38400. SL for this can be placed at 38150. Also 38174 will be an important reference point and any selling volume seen here can be used as an entry for shorts with SL of 38250 for targets of 38060,38000 and 37960.
In case of gap down, 37970 levels will be crucial, once we see buying vols longs can be taken for targets of 38060, 38100 and 38175. SL can be placed around 37900.
The buying volumes in the late hour today does make shorting a bit of a risky affair.
Marketprofile
#ES Futures Review for the week 06.05.22Last Tuesday I was doing a review and saw that Friday the 27th we broke into a balance where we still had plenty of supply over 4143.75 and our position is below 4084.50 which told me that we will most likely spend some time around here to consolidate before we can confirm direction for the next move, Tuesdays close confirmed that more and I gave myself a range we could possibly stay within which was 4170-4060 so we can clean things up and get ready for the next move, especially with it being the beginning of a new month I was looking for the range to tighten up which we started to do, we made an attempt to get out of 4170 Thursday but that move was sold and we went back towards the smaller position that was between 4100-4077, failure to reach 4077 for now and filling orders below it is a sign of strength for my MGI, it tells me that so far its just inventory moving and not LTF sellers. It takes time after large moves to clean things up, take care of business and confirm next move. We don't really have any market moving events until Thursday/Friday so I will be cautious in the beginning of the week because we are still closing within range and this is where it can tighten more or attempt stop runs before it chooses direction. This week I want to see if we attempt a break down under 4084-77 and come back in without reaching the next Key Support around 4030-25 to trade it from 4084 back up to 4137-43 and possible move higher to 4220-4214+ area or failure to take out 4084-77 and get back over 4143 to make a run at 4220-4214+. This week the only shorting locations I am interested in is if we get back to 4143-37 area without extending from it or if we lose 4046-42 and clear break and continuation on 4030-25.
BITCOIN POTENTIAL LONG SCENARIOHi Everyone.
Thanks for reading my post.
Looking at the current price level that BITCOIN has pierced through which is the Low of 28850. This is a Bold INTERMEDIATE DOWN TREND LOW and piercing slightly below it to 26700 and recovering back above it has open a significant door to Long Opportunity.
I believe BTC is a Long term UPTREND and we have hit a level that if held i.e 28850 as it is currently holding am calling a BUY OPPORTUNITY IN the BTC to at least 39K to 40K region in the near term.
Couple with the fact that the last 2 weeks volume started to dry up from about 900K plus 3 weeks ago to 300K plus 2 weeks ago and 400K plus last week, it is glaring the SELLING PRESSURE has eased.
My SWING TRADE CHART POSITION on 4 hour chart has seen some clear END of DOWN AUCTION pinbar or Single Prints on DAILY and 4 Hour Chart.
Also my hourly Chart has tested the some liquidity lows or Support levels and grabbed some liquidity which is an important part of the Order Block Manipulation and Liquidity grab @ lows between the 28900 and 28600 region.
Am calling a BUY OPPORTUNITY around a retracement back to 29400/200 buying zone.
I am believing if price trades below 28000 then I will be reanalysing this BUY OPPORTUNITY which makes it my Stop Area.
I am targeting at least 39K to 40K price level with this call.
Happy and safe trading,
Thanks you all.
Bitcoin according the volume profileHello traders!
Today I would like to show you how to trade according to the volume profile.
The volume profile is another indicator and it shows the market behaviour each price levels.
Now (the price 29 300) in on the bottom of current market profile. It is the last support before next dump. In case of the dump is next suport around 23k and 18k.
The rally up is still in the game but it should be only correction to 38k or max to 47k.
S&P ShortPicture perfect rejection of the 200 moving average adding resistance to the median line of a pitchfork I drew on the recent pivots.
The market profile served as my price for entry and a bearish hourly candle broke through it.
The stochastic RSI in overbought conditions adds extra confluence after the cross
Stop loss is a few pips above the 78.6 level of the Fib I draw from A - B. Take profit at the 50%
ETHUSD Pitchfork Projection and Prediction March - AprilAnchored at A: 24 Jan, B: 10 Feb and C: 24 Feb's pivots.
After forming a double bottom at point C, 28 Feb's bullish engulfing closed above the median line, so I marked the 50% level between point B + C to mark the validity level of my trading idea.
I am anticipating a push into the 3.4k area mid march before seeing a minor retracement back down to around 3k where the 23.6% Fibonacci level is sitting.
A bullish daily close above 3k, and a break of the lower pitchfork's upper median line would initiate a bull run into the next strong resistance which I have identified at around 4k.
The fixed market profile tool shows me that there is a lot of volume at this area and the cross between the projected pitchfork's median line and this level creates an interesting zone of price which I predict to be reached any time from late March to early April.
I have attached a link to today's intraday chart with a 60 period SMMA where an ascending triangle is forming.
If this chart pattern is confirmed and we stay above this average, it will initiate my trading idea until we close/crash below the 50% Fibonacci level I have marked.
$Gold $GL on accumulation buying process or another sell off.. $Gold $GLD has been falling down heavily for couple of days..
buyers came back at 1780s, and 1800-1805 will be potential for selling .. let see if big time frame buyers will accumulate at 1780s and above, or this will be another more selling to test 1760.
My bias is Neutral to bearish, and I don't see any strong bullish reversal evidence yet. I need Buyers to show their aggressiveness above 1800s area
POTENTIAL SHORT SETUP ON AUDNZDThanks for Reading my Analysis.
I will be using the following technical tools to identify the Potential Setups
1.Trendlines
2.Support and Resistance Zone
3.Multitimeframe TopDown Analysis
4.Harmonic Patterns
5.Price Action
6.Chart Patterns
7.Market Profile
8.Pivots
Having hit the Torqouise Blue Monthly Trendline-(HUGE TECHNICAL LEVEL that I belive plays High Probability Role in my Trade setups),I believe a potential of about 272pips short is around the corner.
My ORDERBLOCK/RESISTANCE LEVEL/SUPPLY ZONE comes in from around 13 Jul 2021 with huge Selloff in a Perpendicular Impulsive manner.And with Price hitting the Psychological level of 1.07000 there couldn't be more better confluences aligning together.
Also we have the 2nd High of the Advancing Channel Touch which I can put into consideration as further challenge for price to rise above. My bias however is to look for short entry which has been triggered partially within the 15mins Timeframe Channel structure breakdown,the complete trigger will be the break of the 15mins chart support which will now make my trigger be fully fulfilled.
Having seen a clear shorts in play My Gartley Pattern Harmonics however is extending beyond this levels @ 1.0753. The way I play such scenario is to monitor for continuation.
1.I will have a short entry at the Market Open because of the 15mins TF potential full trigger(This is important as we have some 4hours,1hour,30min Single Prints below 1.06725)
2.Because of the Single Prints I will look for potential Break of the Monthly Trendline to Hit my Harmonic Pattern entry @ 1.0753 and wait for Price Action to confirm couple of Opportunities:
a.)Just because we break above the Monthly we may see a Huge buying wave coming
b.)We may see a huge rejection of crack and snap back below the Monthly Trendline
DWAC setting up for explosive continuation moveDWAC may be become the company that will disrupt the whole industry as we know. Please find below my view:
Fundamentals:
1. David Nunes left congress to become DWAC CEO. This tell us that things got very serious.
2. SEC investigation - I believe it's only temporary. I don't think that people who will be creating those platform, that may disrupt the whole industry would miss something that would put a majorn concern about the company.
3. Donald Trump presidential campaign - as many people speculate that Donald will enter into next presidantial race and to have any chance he needs to establish social media power, now let's imagine what would happen to DWAC stock price if he announced it on the very first post on this platform.
4. DWAC will likely to become a cult stock (if it isn't already) as almost half of USA stand by Donald. Similar to TSLA, which valuation scyrocketed in last year burning all shorts with it as people just believed in Elon alone.
Market profile perspective:
1. DWAC 08.12.2021 noted the highest volume post ipo and surged in few days out of 39-45 consilidation. This itself is bullish indicator.
2. We have now entered into upper value area 56-61 and still finding interest here - we can call it acceptance.
All things considered in my opinion we'll trade 70$ and 90$ realtively soon as stock is still very cheap. Stock is barely above 2bn valuation comparing to Twitter (34bn) this gives us some perspective.
PS:
One more clue: At the moment of Trump's twitter account ban he had almost 89mn followers while Twitter alone have 206mn active users.
I'm not a financial advisor and this is only my opinion about current stock situation.
Stay safe!
ADAUSD POTENTIAL LONG BIASThanks for reading my Analysis.
Today I am looking @ ADAUSD from couple of technical view
1.Trend Analysis
1.Wave count
2.Technical Support level
3.Pattern emerging
Having count a significant 5 Elliot Wave Pattern which the 5th wave moves from 68.2%(0.9721) retracement level and terminated @ 127.2%(3.1763) extension. A GARTLEY Harmonic Pattern has currently emerge from my perspective which is currently sitting on a long term support zone of 1.0054 to 0.74. It is glaring from the Monthly Chart we are in a long term Uptrend while our Intermediate term Trend (WEEKLY) is currently balancing as we are still sitting above a huge daily support level of (1.0054 to 0.74) while our Short Term Trend(Daily Chart is DOWN) and hitting a support zone that ranges from 1.0054 to 0.74.
This Technical Support level of 1.0054 to 0.74 is an inflection point for my Long Bias. We may see a potential quick flush down below it or price may hold steady where we are to start seeing a potential Trend change pattern for continuation to the Upside.
But any break below our support level and a retest to give us a role reversal will be the change to a down trend for me.
LONG ENTRY
A bounce from TECHNICAL SUPPORT
1.0054 to 0.74
SHORT ENTRY
ROLE REVERSAL of BREAK BELOW 0.74 and retest with rejection as a resistance
Also to buttress up my LONG BIAS, we are currently sitting on a long term 633EMA that I use to gauge OVERBOUGHT and OVERSOLD level. Price has hit my yellow 633EMA and I am expecting short term volatility in price between 200EMA (black) and yellow 633EMA.The only Challenge we have is I am still looking for volume to backup my long.
For more information on my trading technics and learn how to trade anything that can be represented on the chart and if you love the brief and precise analysis while not get in touch and I will be more than happy to guide you through our journey
Jan14 2022 Market ProfileInteresting trading day yesterday. US500 rejected the .786 retracement from the FOMC selloff downtrend in a double top at ~4740 that would have seen a gap up to ~4780.
Other traders pointed out a massive 3k order waiting to be filled at 4650 yesterday that acted as a magnet for the markets. That was a couple of points below the Gamma flip from positive to negative for dealers.
This morning's trading was up after hitting support last night but sold off again this morning as the gamma pivot zone was sold.
Bulls will be looking to recapture the gamma pivot and base between R1 and R2 before attempting a 3rd run at R3.
Bears will want to use the added volatility from flipping to negative dealer gamma to break through these lower retracement levels and make a significant push through lower supports and eventually below the lower Bollinger band.
You can see how the ranges are expanding in weekly changes in SPX very similar to how Mar 2020 expanded. Many macro analysts are starting to make similarities in vol space to spring 2020.
My theory is the 3k order is some big whale front running JAN19 OPEX as I outlined in my JAN BullvsBear theory.
Regardless, be careful out there. Volatility is likely to be amplified now that we are in negative gamma space.
We’re likely to see BULLs capitulate now which seems to be showing signs of large thrusts lower and higher.
BANKNIFTY Way forward for This weekBanknifty Has bounced off the Value low Zones of the Yearly profiles from 2021, Now wer are in the upper end of the ranges. Key Inflection point being the 38300-500 ranges.
Plan:
1. Look for rotation trades on the downside until 38500 is taken out, above that can tgt 40k levels.
2.Will look to play bounces off the 37k levels for a long side pullback.
Jan 3rd 2022 Market ProfileQuick update on the market profile chart today.
Some advice I picked up this weekend was to keep an eye on the AUDJPY carry trade so I added AUDJPY as a dot plot this morning.
Gap up on futures last night and 3am BTD bought in but seems to be selling off into the Open.
I set some targets for Bull/Bear outcomes for January
Short term, I'm watching if that ledge in volume profile and using it as my pivot. There seems to be a gap down there if things turn red.
I'll be trying to automate my own script on a market profile. Expect updates in near future.
I'll be Back
Total Market ProfileVolatility Contraction Pattern Trade Closed
I closed my Volatility Contraction Pattern trade yesterday before closing. 1 reason was that bitcoin started selling off at 12pm, and I’ll get to the reason later.
SANTA RALLY
Dec27 to Jan 3rd
The Santa rally that started early (DEC20), continued into the overnight as the 3 am Buy the Dip crew continued raising the all time high bar that may continue as high as 4825 - 4865
Gamma
Spotgamma is a great source for +/- gamma information.
According to spotgammas latest tweet, all the indexes have shifted to positive gamma flows bringing even more contraction of volatility.
Note that a lot of gamma expires in SPX and other indexes DEC31 and may trigger an early end to the santa rally.
Bitcoin Correlation
I added the bitcoin difference script to this market profile chart and started adding a dot plot on the monthly low of bitcoin. You will notice bitcoin bottom shares S&P bottom for the month within 12 hours DEC3-4
Compare days like DEC 13-15 and you can see the similarities.
With that in mind, bitcoin broke trend with SPX at 12pm yesterday and began a 6.6% selloff.
Market Profile Dot Plot
I added a new dot plot to bottom of my market profile chart. The time dot plot shows the outcome of overnight 3am Buy the Dip and regular trading hours.
The 2nd line is bitcoin.
I will be adding some more dots for indicators like volatility, greed, skewness, put/call ratios, yield curve, distribution ranges and more.
The general idea will be to create a total market profile that is easy to read and provides insight for the trading days ahead.
My plan is to create a script that will automate the plots in realtime.
Disclaimer
Posts are my ideas and observations and do not constitute financial advice.
ES Market ProfileI started to learn how to build a market profile.
I don't have much time to explain but I wanted to put it into practice this morning since I traded futures all morning.
Here are some of the basic concepts of market profile.
Most of the info comes from another TradingView market profile furu named TA DOG from his explainer substack .
I'll complete the chart tomorrow, and continue to update each day with which market profile I expect to take shape.
Today it looks like a Double D or D
The reason is that heavy gamma flip and heavily contested 4600 area.
We reject yesterdays value and trend up to 4650 or higher
Reject Breakdown Up and continue Distribution same as yesterday with possible 4520 or lower.
ASAN future potential - known for huge movesHighlighted large volume areas - Looking for a pickup of volume & a break thru 140 whole # - /ES needs to shape up before entry, likely a entry idea for the week beginning with 11/15 - I like to risk 7 days lows INITIAL STOP, for this strategy I am quick to trail my stop once 10% ITM ( in the money )