Jan 3rd 2022 Market ProfileQuick update on the market profile chart today.
Some advice I picked up this weekend was to keep an eye on the AUDJPY carry trade so I added AUDJPY as a dot plot this morning.
Gap up on futures last night and 3am BTD bought in but seems to be selling off into the Open.
I set some targets for Bull/Bear outcomes for January
Short term, I'm watching if that ledge in volume profile and using it as my pivot. There seems to be a gap down there if things turn red.
I'll be trying to automate my own script on a market profile. Expect updates in near future.
I'll be Back
Marketprofile
Total Market ProfileVolatility Contraction Pattern Trade Closed
I closed my Volatility Contraction Pattern trade yesterday before closing. 1 reason was that bitcoin started selling off at 12pm, and I’ll get to the reason later.
SANTA RALLY
Dec27 to Jan 3rd
The Santa rally that started early (DEC20), continued into the overnight as the 3 am Buy the Dip crew continued raising the all time high bar that may continue as high as 4825 - 4865
Gamma
Spotgamma is a great source for +/- gamma information.
According to spotgammas latest tweet, all the indexes have shifted to positive gamma flows bringing even more contraction of volatility.
Note that a lot of gamma expires in SPX and other indexes DEC31 and may trigger an early end to the santa rally.
Bitcoin Correlation
I added the bitcoin difference script to this market profile chart and started adding a dot plot on the monthly low of bitcoin. You will notice bitcoin bottom shares S&P bottom for the month within 12 hours DEC3-4
Compare days like DEC 13-15 and you can see the similarities.
With that in mind, bitcoin broke trend with SPX at 12pm yesterday and began a 6.6% selloff.
Market Profile Dot Plot
I added a new dot plot to bottom of my market profile chart. The time dot plot shows the outcome of overnight 3am Buy the Dip and regular trading hours.
The 2nd line is bitcoin.
I will be adding some more dots for indicators like volatility, greed, skewness, put/call ratios, yield curve, distribution ranges and more.
The general idea will be to create a total market profile that is easy to read and provides insight for the trading days ahead.
My plan is to create a script that will automate the plots in realtime.
Disclaimer
Posts are my ideas and observations and do not constitute financial advice.
ES Market ProfileI started to learn how to build a market profile.
I don't have much time to explain but I wanted to put it into practice this morning since I traded futures all morning.
Here are some of the basic concepts of market profile.
Most of the info comes from another TradingView market profile furu named TA DOG from his explainer substack .
I'll complete the chart tomorrow, and continue to update each day with which market profile I expect to take shape.
Today it looks like a Double D or D
The reason is that heavy gamma flip and heavily contested 4600 area.
We reject yesterdays value and trend up to 4650 or higher
Reject Breakdown Up and continue Distribution same as yesterday with possible 4520 or lower.
ASAN future potential - known for huge movesHighlighted large volume areas - Looking for a pickup of volume & a break thru 140 whole # - /ES needs to shape up before entry, likely a entry idea for the week beginning with 11/15 - I like to risk 7 days lows INITIAL STOP, for this strategy I am quick to trail my stop once 10% ITM ( in the money )
Vox Royalty Corp Rally ContinuesDespite the decline in the spot precious metals prices, the royalty and streaming company's latest update has kept investors keep to buy value.
Based on relative strength among all TSX and TSXV stocks over the past 30 days, VOX Royalty Corp ranks 11th in metals stocks, 19th in basic materials stocks, and 26th in companies outperforming the market.
money.tmx.com
money.tmx.com
PBBANK wave E (yellow) triangle may reached. 22/9/21PBBANK possible reach wave E (yellow) soon of the triangle pattern as price now at the confluence zone of 1) POC ( Point of Control)(Red Horizontal Line) of the volume/market Profile *Most Buyers Spent Time/Price Zone" = Very Strong Support Zone ..as superimposed image inside the chart .. 2)Price now also at 233 EMA (Deviation) (2 white EMA lines)
Bitcoin update 21/09/202121/09/2021
Currently trading on 42 700 USD.
After Sunday - Monday crash bitcoin falled from 48 800 USD to 40 000 USD.
Many traders were liquidated.
Reasons for crash
1) Volume in market is very low.
2) China FUD - Evergrande company has some problems and all stocks falled down.
3) Stocks are on the tops and market is very tricky.
4) In market are many speculants and gamblers with high leverage positions and without any experince.
Next scenario for BTC
1) sideways range between 42 - 48k till the break of orange trendline and road to new ATH. Target is around 100-120K USD. Green scenario
- Important points - Daily close not below 38k (with body), Weekly candle not below EMA21
2) Distribution between 35 - 40k and then break down.
- daily close below 38k
Presonaly I am still bullish, bcs support on 40k is very strong and it is more easier to go up from this support then go down trough this support.
Market cap USDT after every correction grows. It means money still stay in cryptomarket and are ready for buy.
GBPJPY - ¥ Good Value to sell pair.1. Possible small long before further sell of as price returns to fair value.
2. Or price continues towards 149.50 for next test at support.
- Expect to know outcome tomorrow.
- Cover current sell positions.
3. Weekly timeframe implies entering a selling phase back to around 139.75 for higher time frame fair value.
CAKEUSDT Analysis: We are looking for new fair price.On the currency pair CAKE / USDT we see how the price leaves the current fair value around level POC 15.8
The price jumps nicely up the trend line.
In addition, the fundamentals are also positive.
The only thing that could bring the price down now is the unexpected strong fall of Bitcoin.
Management and commenting on the trade will be shared with our students again.
Happy trading wishes Team UCT.
EUR/CHF Two main S/R zones 🚀
On EUR/CHF is nice to see Two volume clusters , there is strong volume areas....
Where is lot of contract accumulated...
This two volume clusters works as Two strong S/R zones.
Around these strong Volume clusters i expect a reaction to the market..
Right now i waiting for pull back to this area...
Pullbacks To Volume Clusters
What I prefer is to wait for a pullback and then enter the trade.
Pullback to where? To areas with significant volumes.
In an uptrend, those significant volumes show us places where strong Buyers were entering or adding to their Long positions.
Those “Volume Clusters” work as strong Supports because the strong Buyers who placed their Longs there are likely to defend them.
Happy trading
Dale
EUR/CAD looks ready to move higher! Check it out Hey guys,
Today's initial balance (IB) has been broken to the upside and tested. We are seeing some nice bullish activity (pin bars) as a rejection suggesting a bullish move is on its way.
I am targeting Friday's point of control @ 1.49660 and setting a tight stop loss at around @ 1.49100 which is our current VA low.
This trade has a RR of about 4.
Trade at your own risk
Cheers
Jesse