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ADA/USD: Weekly Outlook AnalysisCardano still in this bearish trend that could to reach down to $0.24 cents as possible good point to start accumulate this cryptocurrency by long term. But I believe that we could to see ADA around $0.24 cents in the end of this bear market. Right now, Cardano it's above in the support #1: $0.41 cents and important key zone to watch, in case that Cardano get a break of this support, we could to see that the price can to move to $0.19 cents, but my realistic price could be $0.24 cents. But now, if you want to buy Cardano, wait for $0.24 cents. Because I plan to re-buy Cardano. I hope that this idea support you!!!
BINANCE:ADAUSDShort
by harisonhbn9718
6
USDINR current price going to be a historyUSDINR is going to be a history at this current price where it is standing. People (traders and investors) are going to remember this price 81 for a very long time. I am an Elliottician and I will upload the counts of this chart. Right now, all I can say is that this chart is going to make a big reversal. The psychology of money is telling that something big is going to happen here. The time of India is start now. Short USDINR with the capital at which you can bear loses because the real meat if you want to eat, a right amout of capital should be placed on a trade. Thanks
Short
by tradersmantra
4
Using S&P to Identify RecessionInstead of waiting for NBER to officially declare the confirmation of recession, an alternative way to identify is using the U.S. indices quarterly chart, especially the S&P. Typically, economists call a recession when GDP has declined for two consecutive quarters. A committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is responsible for officially declaring when recessions start and end. Why I favour S&P over Dow Jones and Nasdaq? It has 500 companies from the largest to the smallest and from various industries. It is commonly use to benchmark for stock portfolio performance in America, a much wider and broader measurement. Whereas Nasdaq is Tech heavy and Dow Jones with too limited stocks of 30. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by konhow
USD/CAD: The price could to become bearish in this sideU.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar look with a bearish perspective that I analyzed today and I see that some negative news has become a critic point about the unchanged interest rate. To be very analytical, In H4 timeframe, the price could to move to the key yellow zone, and also I draw a gray zone like confluence to watch in these points that the price could to change. The MACD still in the sell point. And now, analyzing the H2 timeframe, it's look bearish in that point based in the price action. But beware what you draw, the gray zone in the H4 timeframe around $1.2981 CAD it's a weak support, but the key support it's around $1.2872 CAD. For that, I hope a bearish movement in USD/CAD As I analyzing in H2 timeframe. I put a sell now and Stop Loss to $1.3023 CAD (41 pips) and target to $1.2872 CAD (111 pips) I hope that this analysis support you!!!
Short
by harisonhbn9718
1
BTC BULL MARKET NOT OVER! The SICKEST Market Manipulation EVERHey all Gamblers Paradise here with another crucial update on the Bitcoin Price Action. Just wanted to remind you to please like and comment on this post if you have found use for it in your trading analysis and be sure to also Like & Follow my Trading View account to get these updates as soon as they come out! The SMART TRADERS are SMASHING the LIKE, REP and FOLLOW buttons on Trading View because you want these updates and insights into what in the hell is going on with Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies. First off lets get into the charts. As I said last time, we break below the $53.8k price point with no volume and it was lower prices we would see.. And what happened? We had a daily candle close below the $53k price point and we proceeded to dump the very next candle down to $41.1k (just $2,100 above the lowest point i mentioned) Any of you that saw this coming, and got your limits down in the support range i had ranged between $39k and $46k.. CONGRATS! Ill make the current analysis quick since bitcoin is pumping and we need to get back into the charts. The other SMART TRADERS I converse with and I have agreed that this was a Wycoff Distribution Schematic Top breakdown from the $65k and $69k tops we made for the second time on a macro scale now while having two heavily bullish patterns fail and break down to the $41.1k price point. SILVER LINING, WE NEED BITCOIN TO BREAK ABOVE THE $58k PRICE POINT AND STAY ABOVE IT FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER OVERALL. IF WE CAN ACCOMPLISH THIS, THEN WE ARE STILL SEEING PRICE TARGETS BETWEEN $130K AND $140K THE START OF FEBRUARY 2022. CAN WE ACTUALLY ACCOMPLISH THIS?? ESPECIALLY WITH THE BREAKDOWN WE JUST HAD... Yes, this is quite possible actually, and it we could still even possibly see $100k by the end of December, just depends on when exactly we break the $58k point and continue to move higher. The small handful of other traders I consider to be Experts in Technical Analysis and hold a very reputable status in the Crypto Market, We all saw the Wycoff Distribution top coming. We all saw the failure of the two heavily bullish patters we had made as a last effort before the breakdown. We all see the symmetrical triangle that we have made after bottoming at $41.1k and this symm. triangle having its resistance touched MANY MORE times than the Support side. BUT THERE IS ONE HIDDEN PATTERN THAT I HAVE NOT SEEN ONE OTHER ANALYST SAY ONCE... SO ALLOW ME TO BE THE FIRST! This hidden pattern has been a very obvious chart move that embodies every last bit of screwing with the market psychology. And this time it is absolutely sick in the market psychology manipulation that it has caused a shift in. This is a pattern that bitcoin has made a few times in the last 7 years that CONFIRMS THE CORRECTION WE ARE IN IS OVER! It is one of the only chart patterns that exists that will do the exact opposite at first when its true intention is price action to the opposite of the first move. As you read in my last analysis, THIS IS THE POINT WHERE WE SNAP THE BEARS BACKS Here is what i mean.. In the figure above^^ Date Rage of about December 2014 through December 2015 In the figure above ^^ Date range of about December 2018 through September 2020 While in a bear market We see this pattern confirm that the correction is over, when We see the correction phase bottom the first time with an average of a 55% move to the downside. The we have a reaction rally that after it tops under the last ATH's downtrend resistance line. Followed by sideways price action, into what looks like another attempt to re-test the last ATH's downtrend resistance line. When the volume does not support the move upward to re-test the resistance trend line, we start a price action move to the downside that becomes whats called a lead in. The lead in has at least (3) lower high touch points that are very close to one another which confirms a downtrend resistance line. This would create a double top along with the reaction rally plus the sideways price action and now a confirmed downtrend line off this second top. We follow this confirmation a specific dump to the downside that also maintains roughly a 50%+ bullish momentum wick. This dump would also create a the correction phase or bear market double bottom in a larger macro perspective. Despite the dump having a larger overall size in March 2020 compared to back in 2015, the reason for the size difference relates to the COVID-19 Virus being announced as a national emergency by 50+ of the largest nations in the world. HIDDEN PATTERN FOUND: Both of the charts above show what is called a Bump and Run Reversal Pattern. A Bump and Run Reversal (BARR) is in face a BULLISH pattern despite it having a quite large breakdown and dump to lower prices. This dump is shown to be anywhere between 40% and 60% to the downside. And we have followed this dump with a long term bull market trend. First move after dumping 40%-60% to the downsize, from wick bottom is a macro-pump of about 220% Market Psychology/ Market Maker Analysis Remember that Market Makers are looking to position their longs/buys while the price is moving down, and then position their covers/shorts/sells while the price is going up. All of which are placed at pre-determined points . This type of psyche out will happen when market makers are looking for additional volume that is not their own to continue further movement in a trend. But when the market psychology and sentiment is or already has become heavily biased to the side that we need volume to come in. They will remove almost all of their volume and place small sized DCA filler order blocks. An easy way to see this lack of volume or unevenness to the market is by looking at the total longs vrs total shorts charts. This is where we would see the market makers look to do the exact opposite of what the entire markets' expectation is looking in price action. A large psyche out move by the market makers, that is able to shift the market sentiment to where many of those traders that tried pricing in the market with early positions that were just sitting and waiting. And all these positions were based on assumptions and expectations community sentiment bias. Once the psyche out move is made, those who do not understand what i am saying right now will play right into the what the market makers want you to do and have now changed your bias and with numbers changing the bias will change the overall sentiment the market. Pattern Schematics: In the Bump and Run Reversal for the bulls, they cause a price dump by drying the buy/long side of the order book and that makes the sells/short have to start market selling to what buy orders are in the order book. Normally this is sparked by extreme fear in the Greed/Fear index and will be retail traders that had longs/buys in position already, and have now covered their position. Once the price has dropped enough, more will continue to panic sell into the lack of longs/buy orders there are in the order-book. Thus causing the Bump and Run Reversals very large dump candle. After breaking down what exactly market makers are looking for and doing. Lets look at the current and recent price action from 2021. Coming off the last Bump and Run Reversal in to a parabolic move to the upside to break the previous ATH of $19.8k. We then move into an over-extended trend by going all the way up to $42k, due to institutional investors jumping in and then the crypto craze to the traditional markets once again ensued. We should have taken our 55% correction that we did from there an then been able to re-test the previous ATH at 20k for support. But instead we had Elon Musk announce his move into Bitcoin at $31k and also Teslas purchase of bitcoin to hold on company reserve assets. This fueled a new buying craze, going from $34k to $64k, which would actually be considered a blowoff top. BUT we did not top in the fashion of a blow off top. Instead we rounded off and formed 3 low volume higher highs for the Wycoff Distribution top that we formed off the $64k top. And as I said and the charts show, we made a correction size move especially when you are to consider how with where bitcoin is at in the logarithmic regression curve, all of our macro chat action should becoming smaller in percentage and then larger in price moves. These moves would also become more elongated as time goes on as well. Given that we do not know what new bear markets total drop in % would be, it could very well be 55% now since we have had what is called a Mid-Cycle Correction Phase. Bitcoin has not had a Mid-Cycle Correction phase since the supercycle of 2013-2014 where after going parabolic it dropped about 82% in what would look like a very short bear market, until it started its next pump thus completing the bull market for that cycle. Currently, it is seen to be that we are in that same kind of Mid-Cycle Correction phase. And after recovering off our $29.5k bottom and then breaking our $64k ATH, we make yet another Wycoff Distribution top with tops at $65k and an current ATH of $69.9k. The reason we did not break the $70k level and go to the projected price target of about $72k-$74k from what could be extrapolated off our previous move. We formed what looked like an extremely bearish scenario for bitcoin, having this MACRO double top that was made with a wycoff distribution schematic on each top. There was some bearish sentiment from this. These people are idiots when it came to the fact we were in a triple falling wedge formation with 70%-80% pumps to the upside and on top of it for the pattern to be a confirmed double top, the first ATH of 64k should have held as resistance, not allowing us to break it. These two bullish points are what held a lot of bullish sentiment still. SO the market makers had to get that sentiment shift from the majority of people and get volume going in the opposite direction to where the trend could continue to the upside since we did break the ATH of 64k. Now after explaining all of this highly complex and analytical crapola.... what the market makers have done, is disguise the second top that was a wycoff distribution top and breakdown, into a bullish Bump and Run Reversal pattern. This is obvious given that after making our net ATH at $69k after breaking the previous at $64k signifying more price action to the upside has a high probability, all we needed was Buy Volume. A Wycoff distribution breakdown into a bump and run reversal shook out so many weak hands that its crazy. The bullish momentum wick off the $41.1k bottom shows the bullish momentum and sentiment to the price action even across then entire $28k drop we've made. And as SMART TRADERS, we look at any and all logical and rational outcomes that are supported by data. If he price goes up, we had a plan of action setup to where we're making money. If the price goes down, we had a plan of action setup and we're STILL making money! We don't trade with an emotion and only have a bias when its being supported with confirmations within the chart that support that outcome. As of an hour later while im concluding writing this, the current price action shows we have broken the symmetrical triangle we have formed to the upside, and appears we are holding support above this as well at $50.5k. As long as we do not by any means break to back into or below the symmetrical triangle, we are looking at an extrapolated breakout move to the upside which would bring us up to the $53.4k price point in the micro perspective. In the macro perspective, we hold an even higher probability of making the 220% pump starting at wick low from the bullish bump and run reversal bottom. This gives a first macro price target of $130k - $140k by the beginning of February 2022.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Gamblers_Paradise
2
Volatility Breakout Trading ExplainedIn this post, I'll be taking you through a step by step guide on what the volatility breakout trading strategy is, and how you could incorporate it in your own trading style. Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk. The Volatility Breakout Strategy - This strategy was designed by Larry Williams, a legendary trader. - The premise of this strategy is based on trends; what goes up, continues to go up - Based on this idea, the calculation and strategy is actually quite simple: Strategy - The Range can be calculated by subtracting the values of the daily high from the daily low; Range = High - Low - Base Price, or Entry Price = Previous Day's Candle Close + (Range * K), with K being a constant of 0.6 to represent the noise ratio. - If today's price exceeds the base price, you enter a position. - The next day, you sell all your positions at the daily open price. Example - The diagram above demonstrates an example case - We have an asset that had a daily range of $100. - Calculating the base price, we get $1020. - This means that if the price exceeds $1020 on the second day, we buy the asset and ride the momentum. - On the third day, we sell all positions at the market open price. - If the price of the asset reaches $1100 on the third day, that gives us 7.84% returns. - If it retraces back to $1000 in its opening price, we have a 1.96% loss. - This demonstrates that not only is the risk/reward ratio optimal, we have a statistical edge in our position because we're following the trend Strengths of the Volatility Breakout Strategy - Because we're trading purely based on volatility, and trading short term by selling all positions the next day, it helps us not to be swayed by market psychology. - Trends are a reflection of market psychology, and as human traders, we can get swayed by our emotions of greed and fear - However, through a systematic approach based on precise entry and exit points and strategies, we can ignore the noise from the market. - Because the trend is our friend, unlike reversal trading strategies, we have a statistical edge in our position, and risk/reward ratio. Conclusion Implementing this strategy directly in today's market might not be as effective, but an understanding of how legendary traders approached the market back in the day can certainly help you understand what you need to do to methodically approach the market. Taking your emotions out of the game, and having strict rules and invalidation points are key to becoming a successful trader. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
8
Ethereum; A short psychological breakdown and review Disclaimer Please see chart for all text. This is not financial advice, this is a mix of intuition and experience breaking down the movement and chart. As a rule of thumb, trend analysis and chart work is all bullshit, period, end of discussion, no arguments allowed. In a similar way that the only gods are the ones man makes, the same for these chart patterns. There is no guarantee at all that any trend or channel is real. We are in a world of pure chaos, and attempting to "tame" or predict the chaos is foolhardy. Still, humans obey rules, even if they don't realize. I hope y'all can gain anything from this type of analysis, but my usual deep dive into the asset is coming soon for Ethereum! I own like $20 of ETH on coinbase, no other cryptocurrency at this time of posting (7/14/21). This is mainly because I do not currently trust any cryptocurrency exchange and don't really have the financial ability to invest heavily into cryptocurrency right now (nor can I rightly suggest doing so as it is clearly being manipulated in strategic methods). This is a repost from another Ethereum page, TradingView needs to figure out a way to condense listings of the same assets.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by DoctorFaustus
2
Ethereum; A short psychological breakdown and reviewDisclaimer Please see chart for all text. This is not financial advice, this is a mix of intuition and experience breaking down the movement and chart. As a rule of thumb, trend analysis and chart work is all bullshit, period, end of discussion, no arguments allowed. In a similar way that the only gods are the ones man makes, the same for these chart patterns. There is no guarantee at all that any trend or channel is real. We are in a world of pure chaos, and attempting to "tame" or predict the chaos is foolhardy. Still, humans obey rules, even if they don't realize. I hope y'all can gain anything from this type of analysis, but my usual deep dive into the asset is coming soon for Ethereum! I own like $20 of ETH on coinbase, no other cryptocurrency at this time of posting (7/14/21). This is mainly because I do not currently trust any cryptocurrency exchange and don't really have the financial ability to invest heavily into cryptocurrency right now (nor can I rightly suggest doing so as it is clearly being manipulated in strategic methods).
BYBIT:ETHUSD.PLong
by DoctorFaustus
5
4 Ways to Trade Bitcoin!Hello my small TV community! Today I've prepared a chart where I will be showing you my approach to current Bitcoin price action and how I usually trade. I love to trade ranges as I have a lot success with them, not only with Crypto assets. Usually I am not opened to all four trades, (usually I just follow the trend, when the overall trend is uptrend I just look for buy opportunities) but this time it's different. Why it's different? Because Bitcoin is saying that the overall daily trend is a downtrend, meanwhile the overall weekly trend is an uptrend so I am opened to all of these four trades! Mixed signals. I only look to buy or sell at the edges of the range, I never enter a trade in the middle of the range. I wait for a better opportunity, rather than taking a bad one. (Even if it would lead to a profit!) Which one is your favorite, or which one will you be taking? Let me know.
Education
by TiborVrbovsky
3
BTC/USD: Euphoric Sentiment and Realistic Price ActionsIn this post, I'll be shedding light on a few technical and fundamental factors worthy of taking into account. For reference, check out my other post from September, where I discussed the importance of Bitcoin breaking the long term descending trend line, and how it should be considered a sign of strength. Bitcoin has been on a major bullish rally ever since March 2020, moving up close to 400% from the local bottom to local top. Interestingly enough, unlike past bullish rallies, there hasn't been much media coverage leading up to this bull run. This rally is also different from those of the past in that it's fueled by institutions, rather than buy volume from retail investors. For this analysis, I'll be providing my own thought of a probable scenario based on price action, market sentiment, and technical & fundamental factors. It's important to note that there is absolutely no guarantee that it'll play out in this manner. It's merely one of my probable cases. With that said, let's dive right into the analysis! Technical Analysis - We can begin by looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is an indicator that helps traders tell whether an asset is overbought or oversold - The RSI is currently trading at overbought territories, and we can see from past data that signs of the RSI being overheated indicates probability of a local top. - We can also count Elliott Waves on the weekly chart. Specifically, Elliott Impulse Waves (12345) - There are certain rules to keep in mind when counting impulse waves such as: - The second wave cannot go lower than the first wave - The third wave can never be the shortest wave - The fourth wave cannot fall below the first wave - Wave 2 played out by closing between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels of Wave 1 - We are currently seeing Wave 3, the longest impulse wave, play out - Not only is this sort of price action unsustainable, but also from the perspective of Elliott Waves, we could expect a possible correction soon - The fact that there is strong resistance at 18.9k substantiates this case - In terms of Wave 4, we could expect a correction down to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level of Wave 3 - This is also the level in which the long term bullish ascending trend line, which extends from March 2020, converges with the fibonacci support.' - As for Wave 5, a rule of thumb is that we can expect the same degree of impulse wave to play out as Wave 1 Investors' Sentiment - As for the investors' sentiment based on certain phases of the market cycle, I recommend that you check out my previous analysis on Ethereum. - While it's technically a different asset, it demonstrates a paired market cycle with Bitcoin, and the information in that post can be applied to Bitcoin as well. - With the current parabolic trend, it could be said that investors are quite euphoric - Despite price actions not demonstrating any pullbacks, and moving at an unsustainable pace, many people seem to think that Bitcoin is going to break all time high levels easily - Unfortunately, the market does not move in straight lines. - Once the real pullback starts taking place, people are going to start thinking that this is just another failed rally - As such, to be profitable over the long term, it's important to identify significant support/resistance levels, and overall trends - A correction to 15.4k at this point is still considered bullish, but a 20% correction is enough to scare a lot of people away Fundamental Analysis - Some miners are selling their Bitcoins but not that many are, or at least not as severely as the past bull trends - The amount of Bitcoin deposited at exchanges is still at relatively healthy levels. - Normally, a huge inflow of Bitcoins into exchanges indicates that whales are ready to sell their bags. - Transaction dormancy also demonstrates that long term holders of Bitcoin have been selling their Bitcoin since the start of this rally after a breakout - Nevertheless, with companies such as Paypal (PYPL) and Square (SQ) showing institutional interests in Bitcoin, we could expect a bullish trend over the long term based on fundamentals. Summary In conclusion, I've taken into consideration a plethora of factors that point to one probable scenario, in which we'd see a correction before another rally breaking all time high levels. Nevertheless, since predicting the market is impossible, keep in mind all the probable scenarios, and simply respond to price actions. The future is something you prepare for, not something you predict. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Michael_Wang_Official
9
ETH/USD: Market Cycles and Investor Sentiment ExplainedIn this post, I’ll be shedding light on market cycles for cryptocurrencies, specifically Ethereum in this case, and how investors’ sentiments are reflected at certain phases of the cycle. Market Cycle Explained - We can refer to the graph in green, which demonstrates the overall market cycle - Markets undergo phases of contractions and expansions, forming peaks during the expansionary phase, and troughs during the contractionary phase - Overall, the market moves in an uptrend, forming higher lows and higher highs throughout Market Sentiment Explained - Along with fluctuations in price movement caused by volatility, traders’ and investors’ psychological responses are also reflected in the chart - Prior to a bullrun, market participants are at a phase of disbelief. They think that prices will get rejected at resistance levels, and fail to break out - After a breakout takes place, hope starts to settle in. People think that maybe a recovery to previous high levels are possible - Then comes optimism. People start seeing the bullish trend that has been confirmed, and start thinking that this is the beginning of a real bullish rally. - Afterwards, we have the belief phase, which is when people start to get fully invested in the asset or security. This is also where people start coming up with extremely bullish price targets for the long term. - The thrill phase. People start getting extremely greedy at this point, and start buying more on margin, leveraging debt to increase their positions. At this point, prices are still going up on a daily basis, and people are still profiting from the immense buy volume, so they lead in their friends and family to invest as well. - Then comes one of the most important phases, euphoria. At this point, people think they’re geniuses, and that they’ll be set for retirement next month. This is the phase were everyone is bullish, and the only thing leading price action is the momentum caused by new buyers - The price of the asset tops out and corrects, reflecting a complacent sentiment. People just consider it as a healthy correction, and that the rally is deemed to continue upwards. - Prices correct even further, stirring anxiety among investors. People start getting liquidated on their margin positions, and realize that the correction is extending further than they anticipated - The denial phase then kicks in, as prices drop further. Investors refuse to accept that the trend has reversed. - Prices drop even further, breaking all support zones, getting closer to new lows. Investors who have bought the top sell their positions here. - Due to mass sell volume, capitulation takes place, and investors start thinking that the asset was never a solid investment decision. - As prices consolidate around the bottom without any signs of a trend reversal, anger starts seeping in. People blame the market for being too manipulative, and the government for not regulating enough, and preventing such capitulation from happening in the first place - As the phase of consolidation continues, investors experience depression. A sense of betrayal and self-pity, as they think of how they can retrieve their initial investment back. - While they go through this negative phase of investor sentiment, prices break out once again, marking the beginning of the second disbelief phase. Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum is demonstrating this market cycle on the weekly chart - It has currently broken out of major resistance levels, looking to continue its rally upwards - Important resistance zones to keep an eye on are: $490, $620, and $800 - Important support zones to keep an eye on are: $470, $440, and $355 - Based on market cycles, as Bitcoin’s rally tops out and prices start consolidating, we should see capital flow into altcoins such as Ethereum - Especially with Eth 2.0, an event in which the shift from proof of work to proof of state takes place, we could expect bullish news to drive prices upwards. Conclusion In summary, understanding general market cycles and investors’ sentiment is extremely important. Possessing the mental fortitude to buy when others are selling is also an important feat that an investor/trader should possess to succeed. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
46
Why Beginners Lose Money Even in an UptrendIf you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight. In this post, i'll be focusing on the psychology aspect of trading and investing that most people overlook. Contrary to common belief, in my personal opinion, understanding a trader and investor's own psychology is significantly more important than educating oneself on trading techniques and learning how to read financials. 'Buy low sell high' is the motto. As simple as it sounds, why do most people lose money trading or investing? There are four major mistakes that most beginners make: 1. Excessive Confidence This stems from the idea that people think of themselves as special. They think they can 'crack the code' in the stock market that 99.9% of people fail to, and eventually make a living trading and investing. However, taking into consideration the fact that more people lose money in the market, this form of wishful thinking is the same mentality as going into a casino feeling lucky. You may actually get lucky and win big the first few times, but in the end, the house always wins. 2. Distorted Judgements While simplicity is key, the approach most beginners make in trading and investing are too simplistic, to the extend where it's hard to even call it a trading logic or reason to invest. They spot a few reoccurring patterns within the market, and this is almost as if they discovered fire. It doesn't take long to realize that the "pattern" they spotted was never based on any solid reasoning, or worse, wasn't even a pattern at all in the first place. 3. Herding Behavior The fundamentals of this is also deeply rooted in a gambling mindset. Beginners are attracted to the idea of a single trade or investment that will make them a millionaire. However, they fail to realize that there is no such thing. Trading and investing is nothing like winning the lottery. It's about making consistent profits that compound throughout time. While people should definitely look for assets that have high liquidity and some volatility , the get-rich-quick mentality drags irrational beginners into overextended/overbought stocks that eventually drop drastically. 4. Risk Aversion Risk aversion is a psychological trait embedded within all of mankind's DNA. Winning is fun, but we can't tolerate losing. We tend to avoid risk, even when the potential reward is worth pursuing. As such, many beginners take extremely small amounts of profits, in fear that they might close their position at a loss, trading with a terrible risk reward ratio. In the long run, their willingness to not take any risks leads to losses. Depending on the price action, they also go through seven phases of psychological stages: - Anxiety - Interest - Confidence - Greed - Doubt - Concern - Regret As we can see in the chart for the S&P500 (SPX) , there are price points at which beginners would buy during their 'confidence' phase, and sell during their 'concern' phase. As a result, they would be losing money even when the market moves in an upward trend. Even when the market is at a clear uptrend, it goes through phases of impulse moves, and corrective moves. However, as beginners are swayed away by their emotions, they fail to recognize the overall trend, resulting in them buying high and selling low . Conclusion The most important thing that beginners need to realize before they start trading or investing is that human beings are emotional beings, and as a result, they are not different from the rest of the people in the market. All successful traders and investors throughout history have had superb meta-cognition. They understand their own psychology, as well as that of other participants in the market, allowing them to make rational decisions with patience, rather than hasty decisions based on emotions.
Editors' picks
SP:SPXEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
121
⚡Trader's psychological stages in the market⚡👋🏻👋🏻👋🏻Hello, dear dear friends! 💓 Today I would like to share with you ⚡ Trader's psychological stages in the market ⚡ 💥 OPTIMISM. It all starts with a positive outlook on the market situation, which leads the trader to open a deal. Trader in anticipation of future success. 💥EXCITATION. The market begins to move in the predicted direction. The trader anticipates events and hopes that success is ensured. 💥TREMBLING. The market continues to move in the direction the trader needs, this is a moment of joyful fading. At this stage, the trader is fully confident in his trading system. 💥EUPHORIA. Point of maximum financial risk. Investments turn into quick and easy returns. Trader completely ignores risk. 💥ANXIETY. Oh no, the market is turning around! The first signs of movement appear not in favor of the trader. But he does not notice this and believes that the market will recover and the trend will continue. 💥NEGATION. The expected market recovery did not happen. The trader does not accept what is happening and remains in position. 💥FEAR. Reality dictates its own rules, and the trader begins to realize that he is not as smart as he previously thought. Instead of confidence in success, thoughts begin to get confused. 💥HOPELESSNESS. At this point, all profits are lost. The trader had a chance to take profits, but he missed it. Not knowing how to proceed further, he is trying to do everything to return at least to the breakeven point. 💥PANIC. The most emotional period. At this stage, the trader feels his ignorance and helplessness and is wholly in the grip of the market. The mind is paralyzed, which sometimes leads to meaningless actions in the market. 💥CAPITULATION. The trader has reached the limit of patience and closes the position so as not to increase losses anymore. 💥DISAPPOINTED. After exiting the market, the trader no longer has the slightest desire to enter into transactions. 💥DEPRESSION. The trader begins to blame himself for the stupidity of why he did not close the deal on time. Some choose the right path and begin to analyze what went wrong. Real traders are born precisely at this stage, studying past mistakes and drawing conclusions. 💥HOPE. “I can still do it!” In the end, the trader returns to the realization that there really are cycles in the market. He begins to analyze new opportunities. 💥FAITH. At this stage, the trader restores faith in his future in the market and starts trading again. The stages considered by us well demonstrate how psychology influences trading. 80% of success in the market directly depends on the correct psychological state of the trader. 😉😉And at what stage are you now?🧐 Share in the comments✍🏻 Stay with me💋 Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣 Other my psychological idea👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
33
Let's Flip a Bitcoin: Observation 1Rather interesting coincidence in these two formations don't you think? Perhaps the same market maker algorithm? This is uncanny in its formation familiarity. I've observed multiple examples of this type of repetitive market behavior, but this is very far the most significance I have discovered. I'm not certain exactly what to make of it. I'd love to hear what anyone else thinks about this? I've noticed some rather unusual behavior in the MACD I'll be sharing with you all soon as well.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Krewbacca_xR
1
Bitcoin "boiling" to make another leg up!?Hey traders!! Couple days ago I posted my idea of bitcoin re-testing $8600-8400 zone before heading towards 12k. I'm changing my mind for the time being.. I'll share bunch of thoughts that are going through my mind right now.. What if market wants "orange box shorts" to suffer and liquidate more people? What if we are going after traders who opened shorts in 11-12k region and didn't close their positions expecting for $6000? Do you think it's a coinsidence that we didn't fill that gap at 8700-8800$ on cme futures? What do you think about cme futures gap at 11800$? :) Do you know that counter-trend price action is RAPID so that most of the people could be taken by surprise?? ((Look how long it took us to get from 10k to 7.5k and vice versa.. ) I can go on and on, you get the idea.. Right now I'm looking to open longs in @$9000-$9250 region with TP @$11900-$12100 Sell loss could be placed below $8940. Do not over-leverage!.. Expect high volatility. Keep in mind.. If we're to jump towards that level soon, it will be very rapid price action.. This is not a financial advise.. Let me know what you think! Have a great weekend ahead! :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Patrikas10
BITCOIN-EVIDENCE: Parabolic Bull Run Will Happen!!There is a 70 % Chance that we will see a Parabolic Bull Run like we saw it 2017 within a month - Not even that: This time it will most likely be even more crazy. Its a fact, that already now, we have been going steeper and faster than before. EVIDENCE 1. Price Volume Trend Convergence 2. Bullish Volume Record 3. Global Bullish Market Sentiment (has decreased a bit lately but always happens at key levels) 4. The Bullish Momenum (Greed) keep increasing (MACD Histogram) 5. BTC-Dominance Movement is similar with what happened before the bull run in 2017 (for instance: First a crazy increase in BTC-Dominance, then a sharp fall, a consollidation and then we expect another drop) 6. Our Elliott Waves match extremely good with this scenario, COMBINED with... 6a ...what we can expect the whales wish happens, and also how they will be able to take advantage of the situation. 6b ...the Psychology of the Market Cycle, and how we can expect that people will behave. Just one example could be, that when we reach just above 10,000 USD Main Stream Media will pick up on the story, and this will engage new players to come into the market again. There are no doubt, when you look at the technical aspects of it, this is the most likely scenario. Short term we MIGHT see a Stop Hunt very soon to the downside first, before we will go up again and continue our Bull Run! D4 Please give a LIKE!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by D4rkEnergY
51