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Marketpsychology

MARKET PSYCHOLOGY & CYCLEYou will often come across the term market psychology. This is different from your personal psychology. Market psychology is the same as market sentiment we just discussed. Market psychology is the overall feeling that the financial market is experiencing at any given particular time. There are several factors that contribute to this market psychology and include economic circumstances, expectations, fear, greed etc. All these factors taken together actually contribute to the trading patterns of the investors. There is nothing much you can do about this because, apart from hardcore economic circumstances, human psychology also plays a very vital role in determining the overall market sentiment. The problem is that all humans cannot be rational. Many of the traders will be driven by emotions like fear and greed. As an individual trader, no matter how rational you are, the moment you see that majority of people thinking that market will move in a particular direction, your rational mind will face a revolt from your emotional side and even if you know that majority of the people are thinking wrong, you may still end up trading in the direction they are trading. It is because of this weird conflict between rational mind and emotional side that you cannot really depend solely on fundamental analysis of market. Often times, it is very important to go for technical analysis too because it will tell you, without taking account of emotions, the direction or the pattern that the market is following. Technical analysis is based on historical price data. This is crude data we are dealing. They are numbers that are brutally true. The numbers don’t speak emotions. But again, technical analysis cannot alone give you the true picture and you will have to use fundamental analysis at times. So, market psychology can be like a dreadful nightmare but that is what you need to deal with by balancing between your fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Knowledge and education is key to success in binary options market. You cannot afford to be irrational but you cannot even ignore those irrational traders who can and do affect the market as a whole.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by CryptoC77
4
XRP THE NEW WORLD CURRENCY?? WILL IT OVERTAKE BTC?Hello guys! I hope you've been able to get the best out of those first days of this new year. We have been witnessing some very interesting things with xrp lately. Some might say that its just xrp's "own pattern" but i'm not sharing that opinion. In my opinion we witnessed xrp detaching from the "KING" btc. So what does this mean for xrp?? This means that xrp will be able to increase in value while btc decreases in value. "BUT this is only possible if there are trading pairs with xrp as base!!!" is what alot of people say. Even though this is not completely true, binance announced just recently that they will launch more xrp pairs... So there you have it! Basically what i'm saying is that we might exit this bearmarket with a new leader in the market, and what better canidate then xrp? As you see on the daily chart we are approaching the 200 ma, and we already broke trough the 50 ma and currently are being held down by the 18 ma. Looking at that alone gives a higher probability to the upside. We are in a so called "burger" right now, that means we are under a solid resistance and above a solid support. On my chart you will see 2 scenarios, breaking support will lead to down scenario (red arrows) breaking the resistance should lead to up scenario (green arrows). Personally i think we will visit the trendline one last time, because the overall market is a little bit weak at the moment even with the btc spike we have right now. Monitoring behaviour at the trendline is very important as this could be the last time visiting it before a significant spike up! Let me know what you think about my chart and if you have a different view don't hesitate to share it in the comments below! Like this chart? Don't forget to like and share and follow me so you won't miss out on the upcoming ones!!! Thank you all!
BITFINEX:XRPUSD
by grandcardone
2
Bitcoin returns 2.0Dear guys This is my idea of the next bitcoin run. Enter zones around +/- 1800-2000$. There will be a lot of FOMO in future as there are a lot of people who lost money. They had FEAR during BEAR market it can go to 0 or whatever and they will join again to neutralize their losses (hopefully ;) ). BTC will change our financial system, crypto will change the world. Since thousands of years we had physical money, gold, silver etc. and on the other half digitalization started, IoT, AI, Smart Contracts etc. The world will change, i'm up for a ride :) Best sidpa7
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by sidpa7
SPX: The Biggest Double Top of All-Time?As the S&P500 approached its all-time high last week, it was met with massive resistance in the form of more EM problems. I strongly believe you do not need to know current news to analyze price action, because they commonly work together. Price has been attempting to get over this ket resistance zone in the past six months, and has not been able to do it. Whether it be trade fears, EM inflation disasters or US foreign policy changes, the market has not responded in a positive way. This has led to my bold prediction that we have seen the top of the markets for the next few years. A possible double top has emerged on the S&P500 between the 2870 - 2860 region. This could lead to a significant downtrend in the coming weeks. EM problems seem to be emerging themselves which could rattle markets further. The vast majority of financial analysts and experts have been calling for a major summer rally, which they claim could push major indices another 10-15% higher from January's high. However, I think this move would have already begun if it was ever going go. Whenever the crowd is calling for the same thing, it is important to examine the other side, because most of the time the market behaves opposite of what the crowd thinks. Technical indicators are not bullish either. RSI is significantly lower than January's high, while price is only slightly lower. This is a sign of weakness in the market known as bearish divergence. MACD looks to be headed for the south side as a bearish cross reently occurred. It will be essential to keep a close eye on the 50 (yellow line) and 200 (blue line) day moving averages. If price falls below the 200 day moving average, it will be safe to say the bull market is over. Similar signs can be seen my looking at the charts in 2000 and 2007. The technical indicators pointed to the end of a market cycle, while many financial experts called for higher highs. There is a good chance the market rallies to higher highs and this prediction is completely wrong. However, for the time being, I have good reason to think it will be mostly downhill from here.
SP:SPXShort
by pstowe
5
Learn To Identify & Trade The Head & Shoulders Pattern Properly.Head & Shoulders Pattern 1. Introduction 2. Definition 3. Qualities 4. Example 5. Conclusion 1. Introduction I realize the Head & Shoulders pattern is a common pattern most traders know. However, I feel that too many traders don't identify them properly nor realize the actual makeup of a H & S. There are two types of Head & Shoulders: Inverse, and regular. According to samuraitradingacademy.com accuracy for the Head & Shoulders Pattern is 83.04% & Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern is 83.44% . In crypto though it may be lower due to volume volatility. For this educational idea I am using an old example of a H & S and will be only providing examples for a bearish H & S. The same rules apply for a inverse. I am quoting sites here that I will link. 2. Definition A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline. As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with a example. 3. Qualities Prior Trend : It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter). Left Shoulder : While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact. Head : From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy. Right Shoulder : The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline. Neckline : The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness—a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. Sometimes more than one low point can be used to form the neckline. Volume : As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. This decrease in volume and the new high of the head, together, serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head, then decreases during the advance of the right shoulder. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Nick_Core
27
SPF Testing 10-Year High / All-Time HighSPF has fallen short of reaching its all time high of $510 in 2007 before the financial crisis. Could this be a psychological barrier for traders? The cause of the financial crisis was banks taking on risky assets and appraising them, fraudulently, as safe investments in the form of CDO's. Their mistake could have created the largest psychological barrier in the history of SPF. However, from a technical perspective, SPF has the potential to break out past all time and 10 year high levels so we do not want to ignore this possibility as traders. We want to look for a high volume breakout from the green triangle area which passes 10 year high levels. Having already formed a hard double top however, a triple top would indicate a strong bearish market sentiment and an expected move back down to the 200 EMA. If it breaks out of the triangle look for a double top to form on the 10-year high resistance, if it also surges past this level SPF will enter bullish territory with a continuation of the 2017 surge to continue. For entries, on the triple top, look for high sell volume and short at the first red candle to make a new low, set stop at high of last green. For long position, look for a break past green triangle and wait for movement around resistance levels, buy first green to open above resistance and set stop at the low of the last candle before it. Overall, this is a period of lower volatility which indicate a high volatility period to begin. To track overall S&P volatility use VIX, an initial increase in VIX can indicate volatility in SPF as well as SPX.
SP:SPF
by eronftrading