Get started

Marketrecap

S&P: Bearish signals mount but buyers still have controlLast week began with a display of strong conviction from buyers, propelling price upwards towards the previous high (516.5). They managed to surpass it by a small margin, establishing a new historical high at 517.1. Unfortunately, bulls were unable to sustain momentum and build a new value zone, allowing bears to regain control and push price back towards the previous low. All these developments signal daily uptrend exhaustion. Trend is close to reversal, but it is not there yet. Sellers must prove their strength by taking down the last week low (506,9). Until then it is still bulls market and buyers have control. The outlook for the next week is neutral. Long term Buyers should refrain from increasing position and consider (partial) profit taking. Sellers can try shorting the market but remember that odds are still slightly in favor of the opposite side. Wednesday (20th) is an important day for the market as FED will announce interest rate decision. P.S. for some reason weekly high on the daily chart doesn’t match weekly high on the weekly chart. I have reported this issue to TV support Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 18–22 September, 2023: Fundamentals The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the Meeting Minutes of its September meeting. Key notes were: They considered raising rates by 25 basis points or holding rates at the September meeting. The economy still appears to be on a narrow path by which inflation returns to target and employment grows. They are concerned about productivity growth not picking up as anticipated and service inflation remaining an issue. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) Villeroy hinted that the ECB has currently finished hiking; other key mentions from him were: The ECB will maintain interest rates at 4% for a sufficiently long time. The current ECB rates are at a good level; it is better to be patient now. Once inflation is back to around 2%, rates can start to fall again. The Bank of Canada released the minutes of its September meeting. Key notes were: The lack of improvement in underlying inflation is a major worry. They anticipate that rising oil and gasoline prices will push inflation up in the coming months. The balance between economic supply and demand will play a pivotal role in determining future core and total inflation. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.50%, as expected. At the following press conference, Fed Chair Powell spoke, and key notes from him were: Growth in real GDP has come in above expectations. Labour demand still exceeds supply. Expects labour market rebalancing to continue, easing upward pressure on inflation. Inflation remains well above their long-term goal of 2%. Getting inflation down to the 2% target still has a long way to go. The Fed is prepared to raise rates further if appropriate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, which came as a surprise as the market expected a 25 basis point hike to 2%. The Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, which also came as a surprise as the market expected a 25 basis point hike to 5.50%. The bank vote also came as a surprise, as the bank vote was 4-5 vs. 8-1 expected (Bailey, Broadbent, Dhingra, Pill, and Ramsden voted to hold). Key Data New Zealand Services PMI came in worse at 47.1 vs. 48.0 prior. The US Housing Starts data came in worse, while Building Permits came in better. Housing Starts came in worse at 1.238M vs. 1.440M expected and 1.447M prior (revised from 1.452M). Building permits came in better at 1.543M vs 1.443M expected and 1.442M prior. The UK CPI came in worse across the board: CPI Y/Y came in worse at 6.7% vs. 7.0% expected and 6.8% prior. CPI M/M came in worse at 0.3% vs. 0.7% expected and -0.4% prior. Core CPI Y/Y came in worse at 6.2% vs. 6.8% expected and 6.9% prior. Core CPI M/M came in worse at 0.1% vs. 0.6% expected and 0.3% prior. The New Zealand Q2 GDP came in better across the board: GDP Q2 Y/Y came in better at 1.8% vs. 1.2% expected and 2.2% prior. GDP Q2 Q/Q came in better at 0.9% vs. 0.5% expected and 0% prior (revised from 0.1%). The US jobless claims came in better across the board: Initial claims came in better at 201K vs. 225K expected and 221K prior (revised from 220K). Continuing claims came in better at 1662K vs. 1695K expected and 1683K prior (revised from 1688K). The Australian Manufacturing PMI came in worse; however, the Services PMI came in better. Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 48.2 vs. 49.6 prior. Services PMI came in better at 50.5 vs. 47.8 prior. The Japanese CPI came in mixed across the board: Japan CPI Y/Y came in worse at 3.2% vs. 3.3% prior. Japan Core CPI Y/Y came in better at 3.1% vs. 3.0% expected and 3.1% prior. The UK August retail sales came in worse across the board: Retail sales Y/Y came in worse at -1.4% vs. -1.2% expected and -3.1% prior (revised from -3.2%). Retail Sales M/M came in worse at 0.4% vs. 0.5% and -1.1% prior (revised from -1.2%). German PMIs came in better across the board: Manufacturing PMI came in better at 39.8 vs. 39.5 expected and 39.1 prior. Services PMI came in better at 49.8 vs. 47.2 expected and 47.3 prior. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in mixed across the board: Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 43.4 vs. 44.0 expected and 43.5 prior. Services PMI came in better at 48.4 vs. 47.7 expected and 47.9 prior. The UK Services PMI came in mixed across the board: Manufacturing PMI came in better at 44.2 vs. 43.0 expected and 43.0 prior. Services PMI came in worse at 47.2 vs. 49.2 expected and 49.5 prior. Technicals A mixed week for the forex majors, a bad week for GBP, especially with another week of worse-than-expected data leading to more weakening for the currency. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD held strong above the support level at the yearlow low and is trading comfortably above the 0.64000 area. The market briefly went above the 0.65000 area, which has not been seen since the end of August. USDJPY 1W Chart USDJPY is quickly approaching 150. The market is now trading just above the 148 level. The 150-level line lines up perfectly with the top of the ascending channel. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD is still continuing to head downwards after the support break of the rising wedge. A doji candle has formed on the 1W, which signals indecision, so we must be wary of this. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD is continuing its bearish momentum after the wedge support break. The next support area is around the 1.22000 level. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Monday: German IFO. Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence Wednesday: Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes, Australia Monthly CPI, US Durable Goods Orders Thursday: Australia Retail Sales, US Q2 Final GDP, US Jobless Claims Friday: Japan Tokyo CPI, Japan Unemployment Rate, Japan Retail Sales, UK Q2 Final GDP, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP, US Core PCE We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
5
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 11–15 September, 2023: Fundamentals Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Governor Ueda stated that his focus is on a "quiet exit" to avoid significant impacts on the market. Other key mentions from him were: They could have enough data by year's end to determine whether they can end negative rates. The BOJ will patiently maintain an ultra-loose policy. Wage increases are beginning to push up service prices. The key is whether wages will keep rising next year. Bank of England’s Mann noted that she prefers to use Economic Rates of Return (ERR) on the side of overtightening; other key mentions from her were: If she is wrong and inflation and the economy drop more significantly, she wouldn't hesitate to cut rates. We all need to prepare for a world where inflation is more likely to be volatile. The European Central Bank (ECB) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the interest rate to 4.00% vs. 3.75% prior. At the press conference, President Lagarde highlighted the slowing of the Eurozone economy. Other key mentions from her were: Rates will remain at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary. Rates were hiked to 'reinforce commitment to our target'. The economy is likely to remain subdued in the coming months. In the coming months, inflation will fall. Key Data The UK August Payroll came in worse at -1K vs. 30K expected and -4K prior (revised from 97K): The July unemployment rate came in as expected at 4.3%, up from 4.2% prior. July employment change came in worse at -207k vs. -185k expected and -66k prior. The German September ZEW survey came in worse at -79.4 vs. -75.0 expected and -71.3 prior. The Japanese PPI came in better month over month and came in as expected year over year. PPI M/M came in better at 0.3% vs. 0.1% expected and 0.1% prior. PPI Y/Y came in as expected at 3.2% and 3.4% prior (revised from 3.6%). The UK monthly GDP came in worse at -0.5% vs. -0.2% expected and 0.5% prior. The US CPI came in better year on year and came in as expected month on month: CPI Y/Y came in better at 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected and 3.2% prior. CPI M/M came in expected at 0.6% and 0.2% prior. The Australian August Jobs Report came in better across the board. Employment change came in better at 64.9K vs. 23.0K expected and -14.6K prior. Full-time employment came in better at 2.8K vs. -24.2K prior. Part-time employment came in better at 62.1K vs. 9.6K prior. The unemployment rate came in as expected at 3.7% (same as prior). The US jobless claims beat expectations across the board. Initial Claims: 220K vs. 225K expected and 217K prior (revised from 216K). Continuing Claims: 1688K vs. 1695K expected and 1684K prior (revised from 1679K). The US retail sales came in mixed across the board: Retail sales M/M came in better at 0.6% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.5% prior (revised from 0.7%). Retail sales Y/Y came in worse at 2.5% vs. 2.6% prior (revised from 3.2%). The US August PPI came in better across the board: PPI Y/Y came in better at 1.6% vs. 1.2% expected and 0.8% prior. PPI M/M came in better at 0.7% vs. 0.4% expected and 0.4% prior (revised from 0.3%). The New Zealand Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 46.1 vs. 46.6 prior. Technicals There was a strong end to the week for the US dollar after a slow start to the week against its major counterparts. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD again tested the 2023 low at 0.63646 and found support there. There was more bullish momentum at the support level this week to take the market near the 0.65000 level, which the market has not seen in a couple of weeks. The outlook on this pair is bullish, as it looks to be oversold. USDJPY 1W Chart USDJPY is quickly approaching 150. The market is now trading just under the 148 level. The 150 level lines up perfectly with the top of the ascending channel. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD is still continuing to head downwards after the support break of the rising wedge. The market has now broken below the 1.07000 handle, and there is an area of support around the 1.06000 level. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD is continuing its bearish momentum after the wedge support break. There is an area of support near the 1.23805 level. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Monday: New Zealand Services PMI, Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes, US Building Permits, and Housing Starts Wednesday: UK CPI, FOMC Policy Decision Thursday: New Zealand GDP, Swiss National Bank Policy Decision, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims Friday: Japan CPI, Bank of Japan Policy Decision, UK Retail Sales, Flash PMIs for Australia, Japan, UK, Eurozone, US We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
4
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 07–11 August, 2023: Fundamentals The Bank of Japan (BoJ) released its latest Summary of Opinions from their last monetary policy meeting on July 27th and 28th. The key notes were: One member said there is still a significantly long way to go before revising the negative interest rate policy, and the framework of yield curve control needs to be maintained. One member said the BOJ needs to patiently continue with monetary easing towards achieving the price stability target. One member said determining whether wage hikes will continue next year will be a key issue. One member said the achievement of 2% inflation in a sustainable and stable manner seems to have clearly come into sight. The Bank of England's (BoE) Chief Economist, Huw Pill, warned that prices in UK supermarkets may never fall back from their high levels despite the plunge in international commodity markets. He also noted: Monetary policy is a 'powerful' but 'blunt' tool to fight inflation. There are also risks that the UK hasn't raised rates enough. There are risks on both sides of UK inflation. Food inflation is longer-lasting than past spikes. Food price inflation will fall to 10% this year. The Federal Reserve's Harker noted that barring any abrupt change in the direction of recent economic data, the Federal Reserve may be at the stage where it can leave interest rates where they are. He also noted: The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showed continued disinflation. Sees core PCE falling just below 4% by year end, below 3% in 2024, and at target in 2025. Expects unemployment to "tick up slightly". They will probably start cutting rates sometime next year. They do not want to overdo it on rates. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe noted that they had made progress in controlling inflation but may have to tighten monetary policy further. He also noted: They expect employment to continue to grow, but below the rate of growth in the labour force. The Australian economy is currently experiencing a period of below-trend growth, and this is expected to continue for a while yet. The Board is seeking to establish a credible path back to the inflation target over the next couple of years. The Board wants to have reasonable confidence that inflation will return to target over the current forecast period. Key Data The US CPI report showed further disinflation. CPI Y/Y came in worse at 3.2% vs. 3.3% expected and 3.0% prior. CPI M/M came in at 0.2% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior. Core CPI Y/Y came in worse at 4.7% vs. 4.8% expected and 4.8% prior. Core M/M came in at 0.2% (0.16% unrounded), vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior. The US Initial Jobless Claims came in worse at 248K vs. 230K expected and 227K prior. UK Q2 Preliminary GDP came in strong across the board: GDP Q/Q came in better at 0.2% vs. 0.0% expected and 0.1% prior. GDP Y/Y came in better at 0.4% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior. The US PPI came in better across the board: PPI Y/Y came in better at 0.8% vs. 0.7% expected and 0.2% prior (revised from 0.1%). PPI M/M came in better at 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.0% prior (revised from 0.1%). Core PPI Y/Y came in better at 2.4% vs. 2.3% expected and 2.4% prior. Core PPI M/M came in better at 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected and -0.1% prior (revised from 0.1%). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in better across the board: Consumer Sentiment came in better at 71.2 vs. 71.0 expected and 71.6 prior. Current conditions came in better at 77.4 vs. 76.9 expected and 76.6 prior. Expectations came in better at 67.3 vs. 68.1 expected and 68.3 prior. 1-year inflation came in better at 3.3% vs. 3.4% prior. 5–10-year inflation came in better at 2.9% vs. 3.0% prior. Technicals The US dollar had gained some ground against its major counterparts across the board this week. AUDUSD 1W Chart A bearish week for AUDUSD. The market is very close to its 2023 low of 0.64583. After a big price rejection at the 0.66170 level, the market looks to be bearish; however, if the support level of 0.64583 holds, there may be a possible reversal of the bearish trend. USDJPY 1W Chart After a very strong week for USDJPY, the market is trading with momentum and is still trying to break the 145.073 resistance level. If 145.073 is broken with momentum, then the psychological 150 level is the next expected target, and above 150 is our Apex level at 151.946. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD has developed a rising wedge pattern, which is a reversal pattern. We are currently on the 20 EMA support; if we get a break below the 20 EMA, then we will be looking for a break below the wedge support line. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD's potential head and shoulders pattern is still forming on the 1W chart; the head and left shoulder have been formed, waiting for a possible right shoulder to now form. Though the 20 EMA support has been strong, the market is strongly approaching it, which may suggest that the reversal of the bullish trend may come quicker than expected. 1.26800 support has not had a close under it for 2 months, so for the potential reversal to occur, there must be a break and close under 1.26800. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Tuesday: Australia Wage Price Index, UK Jobs Report, German ZEW, US Retail Sales Wednesday: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Policy Decision, UK CPI, FOMC Meeting Minutes Thursday: Australia's Jobs Report, US Jobless Claims Friday: Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
4
GBPUSD Short RecapIdentified an opportunity during London Session. Price was looking to take out an old high Identified the legs of an ABC structure As it did we looked for a creation of structure before the liquidity grab Moved to 15 Min After the Liquidity grab, we looked for price to break past the creation of structure for a market structure shift MSS or CHoCH Moved to 5 Min to ID FVG Wait for price to enter FVG and set SL above recent High Set TP at or near point B of wave Targeting 1:2.5 RR risking 1(or 2) percent of account Emotion: Groggy as I randomly woke up between 1:30-2 am ID Session Time and likely pair Confident in what looked to be forming Surprised that I woke up to what looks to be a perfect set up Frustrated due to sleep time, and inability to understand/read to FXBook calculator Trade MGMT: Entered minutes later than expected due to calculator difficulties Added the wrong lot size by a few as I was unfamiliar with mobile MT5 Created feelings of FOMO that I was missing money or wouldn't get an accurate reading with what looked to be a perfect setup Finally figured out the correct lot size and that I added 1.00 lot initially, and only needed .13 more to risk the %1/2 intended Was tired and didn't remember if I risked 1 or 2 percent Added and additional .13 position far past the initial trade, Looked at the additional .13 as a scale in opportunity, which is something I'd like to be apart of my overall plan
Short
by KennedyW12
US Indexes had a late burst higher to end in the greenMorning Jumpstart Macro View and US market recap 1-02-22 The US had a late session burst higher that dragged the major Indexes into green territory ahead of key US employment data Friday. The USD continues to grind lower while Gold was range bound. Copper had a strong session while Oil continues to hold recent gains setting for another push higher. For a deeper look at the price action, key levels and what I see playing out...watch the video and feel free to leave any comments. View more at www.tradethestructure.com
CBOT:ZB1!
by TradeTheStructure
End of month window dressing pushes US Indexes higherMorning Jumpstart Macro View and US market recap 1-02-22 The US ended the session well into the green again as end of month window dressing triggers another buying frenzy into tech. Prices on the Nasdaq, SP500 and DOW are all at key levels that could see another selloff in coming sessions. For a deeper look at the price action, key levels and what I see playing out...watch the video and feel free to leave any comments. View more at www.tradethestructure.com
CBOT:ZB1!
by TradeTheStructure
US continues lower as Bulls bail...US market recapMorning Jumpstart Macro View and US market recap 28-01-22 Europe moved up dragging the ASX, Hang Seng and Nikkei with it although the bullish sentiment was capped as the US continued to be sold lower with Tech (Nasdaq) leading the way. US markets are at key areas where buyers will need to make a stand!! For a deeper look at the price action, key levels and what I see playing out...watch the video and feel free to leave any comments. View more at www.tradethestructure.com
SP:SPX
by TradeTheStructure