Tesla earnings are everything tomorrow!Traders,
Do not underestimate an earnings miss on Tesla tomorrow. Earnings est. is $1.00. If missed:
1. It could trigger the start of the massive bearish H&S pattern.
2. It will bring down the Nasdaq with it.
3. Nasdaq will bring down other indices like the SPX.
4. SPX coming down could break its critical support that has held up thus far.
5. Investors tend to correlate stocks like Tesla to crypto. An alarming report can levy more significant damage to bitcoin and crypto than its already incurred.
In my view, it is critical Tesla does not break and confirm the break of its neckline here over the next few days! Earnings must be hit and the $212-$215 pps MUST hold or it could mean trouble. Watch this closely!
Stew
Markets
Ice cream 🍦😱 (I scream, You scream) President Biden said the US economy “is strong as hell”.
“I’m concerned about the rest of the world,” he added. “The problem is the lack of economic growth and sound policy in other countries.”
Small news:
-Biden disagrees with British Prime minister's FAILED attempt to 'pivot' and ease monetary policy against the stream and against inflation worries.
US president Joe Biden called Liz Truss’ abandoned tax cut plan a “mistake" as he visited an ice cream shop in Portland.
The criticism was unusual - US presidents are not known to slate the domestic policy decisions of one of their closest allies.
“I wasn’t the only one that thought it was a mistake,” Mr Biden said to reporters at an Oregon ice cream shop. He had made an unannounced stop there to promote the candidacy of Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Tina Kotek.
“I disagree with the policy, but that’s up to Great Britain.”
Big News:
- Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden
Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start
Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook
- What happens when dollar gets too strong?
Visitors from abroad will find the prices of goods and services in America more expensive with a stronger dollar. Business travelers and foreigners living in the US but holding on to foreign-denominated bank accounts, or who are paid incomes in their home currency, will be hurt and their cost of living increased.
There are pros and cons to a stronger dollar
- Stronger dollar clearly affects the buying power of US's allies.. Europe, England and Japan can not happy with their 'weaker' currencies. Especially when they need to pay ridiculously high prices for energy (paid in US Dollars off course)...
Not so good Mr President. There needs to be balance and at this moment there is not.
What if things get worse? Can the dollar rise even higher?
Yes it can..my chart shows the price in an ascending channel with strong support at 110.7 and a resistance at 119.4
If that level breaks higher we could see even 166..and that would be a GUARANTEED disaster.
Let's not forget about the geopolitics:
US agenda was to cut-off ties of EU and Russia and this has happened. It's a priority for the US (some say) but not necessarily for most European nations. Especially when the 'Russian Bear' is in full action mode in Ukraine without any signs of a happy end in the near horizon.
The priority of the US should be to care for their allies. Or the risk of losing the US Dollar's status as the World's exchange currency could stop being...
He expects everyone else to Rate Hike but a lot of voices are calling for a slower pace, given that Ukraine war poses more dangers.
Just some thoughts for Mr Biden.
Ice cream or 'I scream You scream, we all Scream' ? It looks like the second at the moment.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
(PROJECTION: I see one hike coming up and then a big time break. No easing buy def slower pace hikes. Once Ukraine situation can be resolved diplomatically we can expect a good rebound but that will not be happening in the next 2-3 months...this will be a cold winter and the more the US dollar rises the worse things will become. Dollar might drop soon, this could be time)
BTCUSDT Final Support Stages - LONGUpdate to BTC/USDT next Weeks forecast
From our analysis it appears that although there is a chance of price retracting to 18,500 mark.
In overall judgement the chance is so small ,considering the last weeks' green hammer candle close and this weeks close above last weeks open.
With almost 100% certainty market is going to take another sharp Bull run on Monday towards 21,500 mark and current support shall remain entrenched @ 18,900 mark.
BTC - Inverted Chart - 25-30K incomingAscending wedges have historically resulted in a bearish breakout a MAJORITY of the time, descending wedges have historically resulted in a bullish breakout a MAJORITY of the time.
The chart speaks for itself. We are over extended to the downside, expect upside soon if the DXY double tops or struggles to move above the 114 area.
S&P is seeing reversal from MAJOR supportWe saw the S&P reverse yesterday by almost 3% in one day! Not only was this a key day reversal/a bullish engulfing candle but the fact that we are seeing this market charting that kind of reversal from such a key zone on the chart is we think critical.
We have the 200-week ma, the 55-week ma and long-term Fibonacci retracement all coming in around the 35000 level and the low this week has been 3491.
If you have been selling this market, you might want to take those profits because I think this thing is going to bounce!
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Fundamental BTCUSDT Pair Analysis of 2022 Last Quarter phaseOur market analysis shows that we have reached end of the BTC-DEAD cycle period for BTCUSDT pair .
Green line indicates strong oversold consonant with blue line which indicates demand for SHORT positions in the market is reducing proportionaly.
The symmetry alights over weekly period for Price Action of the Asset hence indicating strong market reversal is imminent
We expect sharp rise to 20,500 mark within couple of days, then slight retraction to 19,300 level and next pull towards 25,000 whereby new support levels will be established for long term bull market.
We also expect altcoins to follow similar pattern as mentioned and gold commodities to take inverse pattern as usual.
US TECH: Would you like butter on that toast?When US Tech stocks were heading in a northbound trend, nobody had a problem in 'predicting' anything.
Now we see the emergence of a death cross, and folk are struggling to believe what's happening. At each major bearish rebellion in the bear trend, there are shouts of hope.
Even slight increases in unemployment are now a cause for hope. Because hopesters 'know' that poor employment is a sign that inflation is being beaten. And if inflation is being beaten then the FED will back off with QT and interest rate hikes. Well of course it doesn't quite work like that - there is a more complicated relationship between employment and inflation.
So volatility in all markets drawing strength from US TECH has been up lately.
Two key things to watch:
1 - Amber daily ATR.
2 - 200 EMA in relation to daily ATR.
The markets have a lot of work to do before there is a clear reversal for the north. Most of them would have to break above a daily ATR and remain above for considerable time. No sign of that as yet.
Key resistance levels for GBP/USDHaving made a new all-time low, GBP/USD has been correcting higher for a little over a week and we take a look at the daily chart to determine the key area of resistance on the chart. We have a convergence of resistance in the 1.1650-1.1850 band, which represents the low that we got in July, the 55-day ma, the 38.2% retracement of the entire move down that we have seen this year AND cloud resistance.
It is a pretty dense band of resistance and we suspect that the correction higher will struggle here and we are alert to the idea of initial failure.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
SPY - Update (From Nov. 2021)Posting an update on the SPY here as the markets closed out the week in somewhat of a make or break spot. The SPY continued to follow the bearish megaphone that it's been holding for months, while simultaneously holding the downtrend stemming from a massive head and shoulders on the SPY's weekly timeframe (See Attached Charts Below). A bearish bat harmonic pattern also formed on the SPY on Friday, as it broke below a strong support level circa $368.27 and closed near its 52-Week low at $362.17. This comes as seller volume continues to outweigh buyer volume as the markets head into a big week economically speaking. In the upcoming week, economic data and events include New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, International Trade Numbers, Jobless Claims, and to cap off the week, GDP Numbers as well. Treading lightly here, some RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the interim, bearish and hedged-
--Previous Charts Attached Below--
Weekly TimeFrame
Testing Key Levels From 2020
--Previously Charted--
If/Then Rate Hike SceneriosIf 100 bps, then break below support & cont. down.
If 75 bps, then remain above bottom support.
If 75 bps & hints of future pivot, then back into triangle with breakout imminent.
If 50 bps, then To The Moon!
1 Year Of BTC El Salvador CelebratesEl Salvador has used Bitcoin for a year.
El Salvador started using Bitcoin as a legal tender a year ago after President Nayib Bukele made a contentious choice. The public welcomed the new chance with enthusiasm, but since then, Bitcoin's value has fallen, and some experts believe the initiative was a disaster.
Bitcoin is up 2.72% today, Ethereum is up 8%, and Solana is up nearly 5% as the cryptocurrency markets rebound.
This Thursday morning, cryptocurrency markets are up. Pololu, Polygon, and Ethereum have made gains. Shiba Inu and Dogecoin, two meme coins, have also increased in value over the past 24 hours. Volatility has been seen in stablecoins.
"More CBDC news," the Ripple advisor teases.
According to Ripple, it may soon reveal additional information regarding its central bank digital currency projects.
Advisor to the CBDC Antony Welfare
The last session saw a 3.1% increase in BTC/USD.
The latest session saw a massive 3.1% increase in the Bitcoin-Dollar pair. The MACD is sending a negative signal. Resistance is at 20712.8113, while support is at 17730.3773.
SPX getting readySPX has bounced as predicted, but the strength wasn't there - it went even lower before retesting the local top, but now parameters are looking great. Trend Exhaustion is very low on H4, Highs&Lows and Momenter are also on the lower part of the graph - and most importantly - RSI is totally oversold. Upcoming NFP could be a trigger to push the markets up next week.
DXY exhaustedHere as expected - DXY is exhausted with pushing so much up, that it didn't even reach the wedge's top line and stopped at the horizontal resistance. It started moving down and expecting it to move as I previously predicted - go for the bottom of the wedge - and a final bounce up and go down for the much needed retracement.
Additionally EURUSD is also looking exhausted from pushing down and needs some relief - which would be weakening the Dollar aswell.
All of that is bullish for stocks and crypto.
VIX isn't bearishAfter the HTF wedge breakout - we are expecting a retest - and it just started going down filling the gaps - although we didn't fully reach my wedge target yet. Therefore I expect it to happen after we retest the wedge (even better if we do so before that).
One thing is good here - VIX didn't go parabolic after a long bullish streak on the markets - meaning fundamentals aren't so bearish yet. It will happen, but doesn't seem just now.
We stick to the plan.