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SPY the Bulls Are Back In Town...Hello Traders, I hope you all are doing well. I just wanted to shoot a quick update for anyone a little shaken by the market or confused as to what's going on. TLDR: Yes, there are still geopolitical concerns, but at the moment it's not important to the market, because we've already seen the response of the world and it has strengthened relations of NATO and basically blocked off Russia from World Trade and Financially. The Market's prefer hikes over inflation, and technical trading signals are still nearly perfect (as seen in above and below charts). So we have our answer as to who's economy is really likely to crash. Although the US would like to help more, there are limitations as to what we (the US) and other countries can do without sparking a Cold War or WW3, so the markets are pretty content that everyone is threading that needle. Now, why did the market bounce off the fed announcements? Many people without context assume that tapering and rate hikes are a bad thing for the markets; their thought process is that it makes valuations less attractive, due to more difficult borrowing for companies and consumers... This idea isn't wrong, it's just that they're missing a few pieces of information in that logic. First, the markets like policy that are good for the overall economy. Tapering and hikes will help fight inflation; monetary tightening is a signal that the Fed believes the economy is on firm footing. That is a good thing. The market easily prefers hikes over inflation worries. Second, historically, while stocks tend to fall the month following rate hikes, they typically end the year up around 5%. Lastly, there is progress on the geopolitical front. The World has condemned Russia's leader's actions; as we see a constructive movement in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, signs from China that it will roll back its broad regulatory crackdown and play a little nicer with the rest of the world. We do also predict gas prices to continue in a downward spiral and fall substantially in the coming months due to the panic buying subsiding, along with other geopolitical and psychological factors, which need not go into too much detail on. (It's important to note for those unfamiliar, the US is the #1 producer of crude oil, with about 20% of global supply, Saudis at around 12%, Russia 11%, and Canada at 6%). As such, the US is not reliant on Russia for oil; unfortunately, some of our allies are, to some extent. The Chart As a technical trader, that was a lot of fundamental analysis. Sometimes it's good to have both, especially when catalysts are often the driver on big movers. As I mentioned in my previous posts, technical trading has been on-point. Almost to the penny. On Weds, March 16th, SPY gapped up, perhaps on the positive geopolitical news mentioned. Now we're sitting on a trend reversal and (yet again) a retest of the 200MA. Honestly, I think we will hang around the 200MA even if we do break to the upside, at least for a month or two as I had predicted back in January (see below) . Please see for references. January. If you appreciated this please: Like, support, share, follow. Sincerely, Mike (UPRIGHT Trading)
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
4
Good day to as any to welcome the next recession- yield curvesThe US5Y looks ready to break above the US10Y rate for bonds , signaling an inversion of the yield curve, the number one precursor to each recession in the US. The 10 year is sitting 3/1000 of a percent higher right now. When they cross I expect the market to turn red today. The breakout of the US10Y from its cup and handle pattern dating back to June 2019 marked the top of the bull run, and when it backtested and bounced up the selling accelerated. You can learn a lot comparing the US10Y and the SPY or QQQ and how they relate. Anyways, US10Y killed the bull, maybe now it causes a recession and brings back the bears. Happy trading!
TVC:US05YShort
by BrianVS
Trading Volume Jumped 19.5%, Will That's Break 45,000?Weekly Time-frame We have filled the wick of the previous weekly candle. This might mean we can start going down again. Top would be $42,045, $44,000.Awesome Oscillator (AO) is still bearish. 1D Time-frame AO is bullish! new volume in the positive the most awaited for the bulls. We might see a retest in $44,393 before going down. We are also seeing double bottom at the moment price target at $46,916. We might see some sideways for two days as there is no volume in the weekends. 4H Time-frame Double bottom in 4h time-frame breakout area in $42,045 before we continue to the upside either we hold the base then pump or get a rejection. We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us! Want more insights before US market open? Hit Like, Share, and Subscribe for more daily trading tutorial & cryptocurrency news Trade Scholar, the best cryptocurrency educational community online! Find the content above difficult to understand? Feeling lost about how to trade? Want to learn how to do your Own Price Prediction? We endeavour to share you our investment knowledge & experience in order to help you starting your path to financial freedom. Follow, Subscribe & Join our Community to trade together! Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by Trade_Scholar
EMBASKET are on bearish momentum! 10th March 2022Prices are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 8388 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 8305 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Prices sre trading below our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bearish bias. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
EShort
by Genesiv
High-profile athletes are spending huge amounts on NFTs: Here's Worldwide nonfungible token trading was worth around $40 billion in 2021, and it has since attracted some big names in the sports industry. Athletes have been known to invest in a range of assets and businesses, but now they're also getting into cryptocurrency and blockchain. Nonfungible tokens (NFTs) are a relatively new form of tokens that allows for the exchange, trade and ownership of unique digital assets. According to market data, worldwide NFT trading was worth around $40 billion in 2021, and now some professional athletes have joined the movement. Luka Modric, a Real Madrid soccer player from Croatia, launched a line of NFTs, while Neymar, a Brazilian professional footballer with Paris Saint-Germain in the French league, recently paid over $1 million for two NFTs. Several professional athletes, including Alexander Ovechkin and Michael Bisping, have been known to be interested in the world of NFTs. Buying NFTs appears to be a simple and lucrative investment for the rich, especially if they are well-known. However, Philip Gunwhy, partner and brand strategist at Blockassets, an athlete-focused NFT ecosystem, claims that there is considerably more to it than simply investing and cashing out. During a Q&A session with Cointelegraph, Gunwhy discussed why athletes have been drawn to NFTs. Related: NFTs and DeFi are revolutionizing real-estate investing and homeownership — Here’s how Cointelegraph: Why do you think athletes are drawn to the NFT world? Philip Gunwhy: The ever-evolving world of NFTs and the technology behind them means that athletes can utilize them in a way to interact with fans. While it is a relatively new technology, there are clear examples of how fans can benefit from holding official athlete NFTs, such as meet and greets and even fully interactive metaverse interaction with 360 cameras. CT: What’s beyond that? What would happen if everyone issued their own NFTs? PG: How NFTs are being utilized changes every day. Ultimately it’s a smart contract, transparent transactions that will be permanently stored on the blockchain. If everyone is issued their own NFTs outside of the world of celebrities, there still may be use cases for it even with a lack of overall public demand. For example, I could issue my CV as an NFT, employment history and references could all be verified. Ultimately, the uses for NFTs are only limited by the limits of imagination. CT: What benefits do you think athletes can get from being involved in the NFT world? PG: Aside from all of the traditional levels of exposure that any traditional marketing method would bring, it is a way for them to engage with their fans in a way never before. With an athlete NFT collection and or token, the superfans become part of a super community. I’m a big believer in the future of fan/social tokens and creating an eco-system that fans can benefit from acquiring their token; it’s a path and a journey that the fans can benefit from at the same time the athlete does, creating a win-win environment for both athlete and fan. CT: How do you think the influx of athletes into the NFT world will change the industry? PG: The influx of athletes into the NFT world will bring mass adoption and education to NFTs. But, at this point, we are only really touching the tip of the iceberg as to people’s general awareness of the power NFTs can bring to society. Throughout history, those with influence will be the ones that deliver awareness to the masses. CT: Do you see any potential risks associated with athletes being involved in the NFT world? PG: As with anything new that follows the path of hype, there will always be the unscrupulous minority who will try to take advantage of the situation. The creation of imitation NFTs and or phishing type scams will pop up. Therefore, people need to be vigilant. Work with only companies that you can be confident are official and make sure due diligence has been covered before making any investments. CT: Which current processes in the sports industry can be eventually replaced with NFTs or blockchain in the future? PG: I see a high probability that traditional ticketing will be entirely replaced by NFT ticketing. A season ticket, for example, could be transferred with complete transparency across the blockchain. There are so many more benefits to replacing old technology with the new, and tickets will never be lost; the ticket can and will be used in both digital and real-world scenarios. For example, a match day program can be airdropped to the holders’ wallet along with clips and highlights of the game. CT: What advice would you give an athlete who is looking to get into the NFT world? PG: For an athlete looking to get into the NFT world, I’d encourage them to discover their motives. Those simply looking to get an extra revenue stream can provide that, but fans will not necessarily be engaged with it. If the athlete wants to engage with their fan base and grow a true synergy, then find the right company to partner with that has proven to deliver this. CT: Do you think there's more to it than just investing and cashing out? PG: While there will always be many people looking at athlete NFTs as an investment, it’s not necessarily the view that I hold at all. Instead, I view the collection of NFTs and the acquisition of social tokens as a fun way to interact with the athlete. If you are a fan and want to benefit from that relationship, then the future is in digital smart contracts. Related: Fan Controlled Football raises $40M to expand league with Bored Apes and Gutter Cats CT: How do you see athletes' involvement in the NFT world affecting their careers in the long run? PG: Athletes that become involved in the NFT world can benefit their careers by adding value to their IP. With social tokens, their market cap can directly determine their value as an athlete. Although, the past couple of decades, sponsorship deals have been a huge factor in decision making when it comes to negotiating sponsorship deals, the future of Web3 and social tokens empowering new forms of social media, an athlete market cap will quickly catch up and potentially overtake as a way to determine an athletes popularity and therefore, marketability.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by monicaagrizzi9
Dogecoin price readies for a 35% crash as tension between RussiaDogecoin price is currently hovering on a critical support level, a breakdown of which could lead to a steep correction, but a bounce could trigger a new uptrend. Therefore, investors need to be cautious as crypto markets have turned volatile due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. BTC crashed to $35,000 after news of Russia launching attacks on Ukraine emerged, causing Dogecoin and other altcoins to crumble as well.
BITFINEX:DOGEUSD
by frothicycads
Gold Up 7%, Bitcoin Down 25%The decline has challenged earlier notions of Bitcoin being a viable gold alternative, considering its decentralized nature and general detachment from the broader financial space. These aspects of the currency were widely lauded during Bitcoin’s stellar rally last year, where it surged to nearly $70,000. But while the rally was indeed steep, a large portion of it was backed by institutional interest in the token. The influx of big investment houses has seen Bitcoin behave more like conventional markets, specifically, stocks. Losses in Bitcoin this year have mirrored those in the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, which is down about 22%. Gold the preferred inflation hedge? Fears of rising inflation had also seen markets tout Bitcoin as a potential inflation hedge, ie, returns on the currency would be consistently above annual inflation rates. But with the token trading down for the year, such a notion seems rendered moot. Gold on the other hand, is trading close to the level of annual inflation in the U.S.- which had surged by 7.5% in January. The reading had rattled crypto markets earlier in February, while supporting gold. Bitcoin’s recent sensitivity to inflation also makes it averse to rising interest rates. A bulk of the token’s decline this year has been driven by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which has planned a rate hike in March.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by rinutccintau
Bitcoin dips 12%In a move that seemed to catch markets by surprise, reports were flowing in of a feared three-pronged attack on Ukraine at the time of writing, with the West already promising more severe sanctions as a result. Bitcoin, already trading in line with stocks instead of acting as a safe haven, thus showed uncertainty of its own, declining over 12.2% from Wednesday’s local highs to hit $34,300. Asian stocks were already feeling the pressure, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index down 3.5% and the Nikkei reaching a 15-month low. As traders waited to see the full impact on European and United States stock markets, Bitcoin market participants took stock of what the geopolitical events could mean for the largest cryptocurrency. “So there are arguments both ways for what should be happening to BTC right now. I’m not really sure I would have guessed it would go down based on the fundamentals. But it is down, a lot! Why?” Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of trading giant FTX, queried in a series of tweets Thursday.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by booflebacop
6% Decline could be on its way Hey guys, following up with my last few post I have exited the position I outlined last as I didn't want to hold it during the CPI announcement and it hit the .5 on the Fib and broke the uptrend line. New position entered after the market has reacted to the inflation news and we face the definite reality of the Fed tapering harder then first expected. My first target is a 6% fall to the yellow support line as on the daily it has many touches early in 2021 and most recently as seen in 2022 where it stopped the first fall. I'm using Citi Mini warrents so risk to reward make it. But I want to stress this is just one leg of a decline/bear market/ crash in motion and has been for the past 2 months. As soon as we broke the channel we had been in for two years we should know it wasn't going to go any higher then that and on my next post I outline the bigger move overall. But the main theme is to watch the VIX as it has held trend and Silver which is returning to my support line and if broken we are looking at a much bigger leg down then 6% on the US100, more likely to fall 17% to the next major support line. First trade up was 30% gain Target for second trade down is 60% gain
UShort
by jackwheeler
1
Traders' guide: 10 yr Yield + markets positively linkedFirst - if you think markets always move opposite to yields, please be open to learning something new. Covariance, in statistics, is the relationship between two random variables. This chart indicates periods of negative (blue) and positive (yellow) covariance between the 10 year yield and SPY. If you think about it, this makes sense because there are times when rising rates give investors more confidence in the economy. Traders can benefit from knowing the general relationship. > Yields change in response to central bank activity - I cannot explain why the covariance flips > Other factors influence markets but yield is reliable for intraday moves > 1.77 has been key support for the yield recently, and hence for markets > Above 1.83, markets get spooked and covariance becomes negative (you can see this in yellow boxes also) > Below 1.74,1.73 should increase selling momentum How am I using this information to plan trades? > I believe yields will drop further and take markets lower, so I am looking for swing put trades > This strong upward rally has brought indices and stocks to moving average and price resistance areas, which technically also indicate swing puts > I have successfully day traded DIA and QQQ calls and puts using yield changes a guide > I was too early in buying swing puts on 31 Jan, but since they expire 18Feb I can hold the loss for now > As I finish writing this, yield moved up from 1.748 to 1.771 and markets have also been moving up - I see this as a good time to buy swing puts
Editors' picks
TVC:TNX
by OptionsRising
37
When Trends Emerge... Embrace Them!The price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent environment, the marketplace. A price trend is the most accurate reflection of the market’s sentiment. When buyers are more aggressive, prices rise, and when sellers overwhelm buyers, prices decline. The stock market trend reversed The S&P 500 is the leading stock market index The trend bent Ride the wave until the technical position changes Never try to pick a top or bottom; the market’s sentiment will tell you all you need to know In his 2004 book, The Wisdom of Crowds, author James Surowiecki used case studies to prove that “the many are smarter than the few, and how collective wisdom shapes business, economies, societies, and nations.” A price trend embodies Surowiecki’s work, and that is why the trend is always a trader or investor’s best friend. When I first began my trading career in the early 1980s, my mentors taught me never to “fight the tape.” They were old-school traders who learned their craft in the days when stock prices were printed on a ticker tape. Fighting the tape is going against the trend. When the path of least resistance of a market changes from bullish to bearish or vice versa, it is a signal to take profits, losses, and reverse a risk position. The most successful trend-following traders and investors ride trends until they bend, aiming to take the most significant percentage of profits from a bullish or bearish price pattern. There can be plenty of false signals that lead to choppy results but catching a significant trend and riding it like a surfer rides a wave can be gratifying and highly profitable. The recent price action in the US stock market points to a significant trend change from bullish to bearish. The stock market trend reversed After reaching a record high of 4,808.25 on January 4, the March E-Mini S&P 500 futures contract ran out of upside steam, reversed, and has made lower highs and lower lows. The chart highlights the decline to the most recent low of 4,212.75 on January 24, a 12.4% decline in only twenty days. The futures contract was around the 4,420 level at the end of last week, closer to the recent low than the early January high. The Fed’s more hawkish approach to monetary policy has weighed on the stock market as stocks compete with bonds for capital. Moreover, the geopolitical landscape has likely caused selling as tensions between the US and Russia have risen to a post-Cold War high. The S&P 500 is the leading stock market index The S&P 500 is the most diversified stock market indicator and the bellwether for monitoring the overall equities asset class. While the recent selloff may appear as another speed bump, a close below the 4,495.12 level on January 31 would put in a bearish key reversal trading pattern on the monthly S&P 500 chart. A bearish reversal in Bitcoin and Ethereum on November 10 led to a price implosion in the cryptocurrency arena that took prices over 50% lower at the most recent lows last week. The S&P 500 closed more than 60 points below the critical level on January 28. The trend bent Trends reflect market sentiment. As we move into 2022’s second month, the stock market looks more than shaky. Higher interest rates, geopolitical problems, COVID-19 variants, rising inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, the potential for rising US corporate and individual tax rates, and other issues have caused selling to emerge in the equities market. There have been plenty of false signals in the stock market over the years. However, when corrections occur, they can be brutal. The last substantial correction took the S&P 500 from 3,393.52 in February 2020 to a low of 2,191.86 in March 2020 as the worldwide pandemic gripped markets. The 35.4% drop from one month to the next was a reminder that when the trend bends, it is best to follow the sentiment. The cost of trend-following is choppy results when markets display false breakdowns or recoveries. When trends emerge, the profits can more than compensate for short-term losses. The bullish trend in the US stock market bent in early 2022 and is now bearish at the end of January. Ride the wave until the technical position changes Trend-following is like surfing. It can take a long time to paddle around through small waves until a substantial one appears on the scene. Surfers look to ride the wave when it arrives. The S&P 500 has already dropped by over 12% in January, and a bearish reversal at the end of January could cause even more follow-through selling. Daily price volatility has increased, and rallies during a bearish trend can be particularly nasty for those holding short risk positions; thus, the term “rip your face off rally.” The critical factor in trend following is to begin riding the wave early so that you can stomach the ups and downs that naturally occur as the market gyrates between higher and lower prices on an intra-day and even intra-week basis. Those gyrations can cause the emotional impulses that cause many traders and investors to lose money or minimize profits. For trend-followers with the fortitude to suppress emotions, riding the bullish or bearish wave until it changes direction is the formula that separates winners from losers over time. Never try to pick a top or bottom; the market’s sentiment will tell you all you need to know Our emotions want us to be correct, and the emotional impulses are more concerned with calling a direction than profiting from the market. It is virtually impossible to call bottoms or tops in markets consistently, and successful trend-followers tend to be long at the top and short at the bottom. While this may seem counter-intuitive, it is the critical factor for profitability. Sentiment is a powerful force that often ignores news, expert fundamental analysis, and all other noise that surrounds markets each day. Sentiment creates price trends that indicate the path of least resistance of prices. Picking tops or bottoms denies physics that teaches a body in motion tends to stay in motion. In finance, the trend is your friend until it bends is the same construct. As of the end of last week, the trend in the stock market was bearish, and we will ride the wave until the market sentiment tells us it is time to ride another in the opposite direction. We are constantly long or short the highly liquid markets we trade, and we may get chopped up when sentiment is confused and provides false signals. However, we are always positioned to participate when the big moves come. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPXShort
by Andy_Hecht
1