There is danger in equity capital markets.The current mid-term bearish trend of international equity markets could end in a big upward rebound, or in the start of a correction.
The coming weeks will be completely decisive.
Markets
US saved from another red session thanks to a late rallyUS markets rallied in the last hour to move from negative to positive territory ahead of the FOMC statement on inflation and interest rates. Gold took a beating as Gold and inflation bulls shake their heads. The USD continued to hover around highs which I expect will be the same theme for the coming few sessions before the FOMC meeting. Traders remain mixed with regards to inflation so expecting to see more choppy intraday action.
Markets covered
US - DOW, Nasdaq and SP500
Europe - DAX and FTSE100
Asia - Hang Seng, ASX and Nikkei
FX - Dollar Index (USD), EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDJPY
Commodities - GOLD, Oil and Copper
Crypto - Bitcoin and Ethereum
That's how market respects 200 Day Average!Nifty has been around in a range since last 10 trading sessions but during that it has respected 200 day average perfectly around 17200 level. It has closed at or below 200 day average for 9 sessions out of last 10 . For a technical breakout , its a guideline that we should sustain for two consecutive days on closing basis above breakout level for a confirmation and that is why that one day could be considered as false breakout. Yesterdays closing has been again way below 200 day average and volumes on future were comparatively higher which opens the gate for more downside. Considering Elliot Wave, we are into corrective wave and it seems we have completed Wave B yesterday at 17399 . Now we are into Wave C which could be equal in length of Wave A and we might see 1270 points correction from 17399 i.e., to 16150. And if we analyze worst case then we can test downside trend line on channel which could be at 15900.
P.S. Stop loss for short trade is just 360 points away at 17468 while again is approximately 1000 points.
BTC pennant, plan still remains the same.Nice and simple view of BTC rn.
a nice pennant forming, and range remains unbroken.
lose this area though and 30k gulag time.
Markets all round are a bit all over the place, so very interested to see direction of market.
NDX Key Area - How Deep Will It Go?In the event that this chart breaks $13,000 and proceeds to consolidate below $13K, I would be more convinced of a deeper selloff. That is not to say that it couldn't just collapse to $10k without any kind of subsequent bearish structure; it definitely could.
That said, we also see price caught "awkwardly" between the top of a longer term 12-Year structure, and the bottom of a newly formed - post-covid "recovery market". So the question becomes, how strong / weak is it?
In my current "view", as per the chart, the bullish case would be a corrective move back to previous highs, followed by another pullback into a sideways move, before continuing higher.
This would all have to be substantiated by price obviously. I understand I am overlooking a lot. Hope you appreciate the "view".
Be well! God bless!
USDCAD - Long | Closed Oil LongTaking a risk here with USDCAD to the long side, as it looks like a great risk-reward setup.
This trade implies some a bias to the downside in oil. As previous posts will confirm, I have been bullish on oil; however - the recent failed move at $109, represents the second lower-high within a bearish structure. As such, I am comfortable with the expectation that oil needs some time to figure out a direction.
That's all for now.
May the Lord bless you!
-Chief
Bitcoin Perspective - Short My bias for crypto remains to the short side.
Normally I don't look at charts with such a dramatic orientation; however, if there is a chance at all that this orientation is later validated as THE top, that would be enough for me to remain short.
Right now, bitcoin is barely hanging on in what is a fairly textbook bear-flag.
Be well!
DOW Drops almost 1000 points! How did BTC fair?Traders,
Let's take a look at the charts after this bloody day in the U.S. markets.
- Stewdam.us
Disney Short Setup Looks like there is such a thing as bad publicity.
$DIS barely hanging on. I think anything above $150.00 is a fairly safe place to short the Disney stock. While I have not entered a short position yet, I am considering it and I will update this chart when I do it.
How deep? I think this thing can easily lose another 50% - 60%.
We will watch !
God Bless!
USDCNH Long | Chinese Yuan Looking to DevalueBought USDCNH. This position is consistent with my bullish $USD thesis.
Chart shows it is a good risk-reward. Macro backdrop supports it.
God Bless!
Chief
$DXY About to Break Out? I mentioned recently on twitter that I am long USDJPY.
Not much to say about the dollar, other than it looks like it wants to break out to the upside. Additionally, the macroeconomic tailwinds support a bullish dollar thesis in a couple of ways:
1. The Federal Reserve has been very transparent about their intention to continue to raise interest rates through 2022. Increasing interest rates make the dollar more attractive via the risk-free rate of return.
2. The war in Ukraine: as an added measure towards defeating Russia's war machine, raising interest rates in the US makes exporting dollars to Russia that much less attractive. When I say "exporting dollars to Russia", I am describing a situation in which other sovereign countries who might otherwise be willing to engage in trade with Russia, can now look to the risk free rate of return in dollar-denominated asset classes... so, why would you trade with Russia when you can buy US bonds that pay interest and allow you to stabilize your currency and rebalance your trade policy?
3. Oil prices continue to rise. Russia may pretend to be in control of the market for crude, but so far - this is empty dictatorial rhetoric.
4. Bitcoin continues to deteriorate ( I identified the top in October 2021 ). A stronger dollar, resulting from real world economic conditions, will continue to put adverse pressure on Bitcoin and cryptos alike.
last, I am now a little unsure on stocks overall. I am *guessing* stocks will continue to drift sideways for now.
God bless,
-Chief
SPY Prediction Update and New Prediction.Good Afternoon Traders,
I hope all of you are having a great holiday and were able to benefit from my previous predictions, which turned out to be pretty close to perfect.
Today, I'd like to make another prediction. We're still in a Ranging Market. It looks like it will only last another few weeks, but who knows, really. I've created 2 new prediction range boxes. We are getting a little more Bullish, but by no means are we in a Bull Market.
As I said before, we will likely be hugging the 200MA until we have a clean break. Still a lot of unknowns at the moment continuing to feed into creating this Range.
I expect some short term bearish PA followed by bullish recovery in the very short term.
Check out my previous posts referred to above:
Original Prediction:
Febuary:
Clearer image.
March:
Last March Post:
As you can see In the chart above, the bullish continuation did, in fact, break through from that fib marked on the chart in this post; it moved up to the top fib, which is now approximately the red one on this current chart (462) .
Clearer image of current chart:
If you enjoyed/appreciated this post: Please like, subscribe,follow, support website , etc.
Best Regards,
Mike L.
(UPRIGHT Trading)
USDJPY Looking Really GoodUSDJPY looks to be on fire.
I am long and looking to test the $145.00 area.
EurGbp entering potential zoneEURGBP is now entering a support zone that's withstood since 2017.. range has yet to be broken.
LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURESThe price is in the stage of correcting and gathering strength to form the second highest peak
Could we have another leg up?There is a chance that SPY could retest that pink line. If that happens then I would think the market will start collapse, then. Timing is extremely difficult, but I believe 2023 will be worst.
BTC/NDX Bear Flag - Bitcoin WeaknessConsistent with my overall view of Bitcoin (short), and as previously mentioned - this chart shows a bear-flag in the performance of BTC relative to the Nasdaq. In previous posts, I had noted we could expect BTC to underperform NDX.
What this suggests is that Bitcoin remains weak and getting progressively weaker.
Let's see how it plays out.
God Bless.
Will Bitcoin break above our $45,000 resistance level?Good signs all around. Do these positive indicators tells us about the future direction of Bitcoin and our crypto markets?
⛓️ 🔗 Useful Links 🔗 ⛓️
Fear/Greed Index:
Due to House Rules cannot be displayed.
SPY the Bulls Are Back In Town...Hello Traders,
I hope you all are doing well. I just wanted to shoot a quick update for anyone a little shaken by the market or confused as to what's going on.
TLDR: Yes, there are still geopolitical concerns, but at the moment it's not important to the market, because we've already seen the response of the world and it has strengthened relations of NATO and basically blocked off Russia from World Trade and Financially. The Market's prefer hikes over inflation, and technical trading signals are still nearly perfect (as seen in above and below charts).
So we have our answer as to who's economy is really likely to crash.
Although the US would like to help more, there are limitations as to what we (the US) and other countries can do without sparking a Cold War or WW3, so the markets are pretty content that everyone is threading that needle.
Now, why did the market bounce off the fed announcements?
Many people without context assume that tapering and rate hikes are a bad thing for the markets; their thought process is that it makes valuations less attractive, due to more difficult borrowing for companies and consumers...
This idea isn't wrong, it's just that they're missing a few pieces of information in that logic.
First, the markets like policy that are good for the overall economy. Tapering and hikes will help fight inflation; monetary tightening is a signal that the Fed believes the economy is on firm footing. That is a good thing. The market easily prefers hikes over inflation worries.
Second, historically, while stocks tend to fall the month following rate hikes, they typically end the year up around 5%.
Lastly, there is progress on the geopolitical front. The World has condemned Russia's leader's actions; as we see a constructive movement in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, signs from China that it will roll back its broad regulatory crackdown and play a little nicer with the rest of the world.
We do also predict gas prices to continue in a downward spiral and fall substantially in the coming months due to the panic buying subsiding, along with other geopolitical and psychological factors, which need not go into too much detail on.
(It's important to note for those unfamiliar, the US is the #1 producer of crude oil, with about 20% of global supply, Saudis at around 12%, Russia 11%, and Canada at 6%). As such, the US is not reliant on Russia for oil; unfortunately, some of our allies are, to some extent.
The Chart
As a technical trader, that was a lot of fundamental analysis. Sometimes it's good to have both, especially when catalysts are often the driver on big movers. As I mentioned in my previous posts, technical trading has been on-point. Almost to the penny.
On Weds, March 16th, SPY gapped up, perhaps on the positive geopolitical news mentioned. Now we're sitting on a trend reversal and (yet again) a retest of the 200MA. Honestly, I think we will hang around the 200MA even if we do break to the upside, at least for a month or two as I had predicted back in January (see below) .
Please see for references.
January.
If you appreciated this please: Like, support, share, follow.
Sincerely,
Mike
(UPRIGHT Trading)
Good day to as any to welcome the next recession- yield curvesThe US5Y looks ready to break above the US10Y rate for bonds , signaling an inversion of the yield curve, the number one precursor to each recession in the US. The 10 year is sitting 3/1000 of a percent higher right now. When they cross I expect the market to turn red today.
The breakout of the US10Y from its cup and handle pattern dating back to June 2019 marked the top of the bull run, and when it backtested and bounced up the selling accelerated. You can learn a lot comparing the US10Y and the SPY or QQQ and how they relate.
Anyways, US10Y killed the bull, maybe now it causes a recession and brings back the bears. Happy trading!
Trading Volume Jumped 19.5%, Will That's Break 45,000?Weekly Time-frame
We have filled the wick of the previous weekly candle. This might mean we can start going down again. Top would be $42,045, $44,000.Awesome Oscillator (AO) is still bearish.
1D Time-frame
AO is bullish! new volume in the positive the most awaited for the bulls. We might see a retest in $44,393 before going down. We are also seeing double bottom at the moment price target at $46,916. We might see some sideways for two days as there is no volume in the weekends.
4H Time-frame
Double bottom in 4h time-frame breakout area in $42,045 before we continue to the upside either we hold the base then pump or get a rejection.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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DXY Followup trade3.17.22 DXY Followup trade: this is about the impotence of recognizing the importance of a contracted market and how it affects your trading results...and your level of stress...especially when you factor in the difficulty of finding a worthy reward. Yet, they can still suck you in because they show "simple,attractive" setups frequently limited reward...and a lot of work.
EMBASKET are on bearish momentum! 10th March 2022Prices are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 8388 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 8305 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Prices sre trading below our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bearish bias.
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