Markets
Weekly Review: Consolidating the levels (Read for Fundamentals)The last hours of trading sessions have served to clear two subjects.
1. On the macro side, the third quarter GDPs indicators from USA and the EU were better than expected.
2. On the micro side, the biggest technology companies’ earnings beat expectations
However, the geopolitics bring some noise to the market as Democrats and Republicans cannot reach an agreement over the stimulus package and Trump threats to postpone the election.
Looking forward to next week, it will be to key to watch out the employment data on Friday. A moderate growth is expected and this will set the tone on the strength of the American labour market.
Altogether, this week will be lateral with no big swings as investors will wait until Friday for the employment data.
Simple but Direct: A look at BTCOur long term downtrend has been breached and moreover for the first time since our descent in 2017 we have made a higher high!
The look ahead for btc seems to be a push to test previous highs and our first target here will be the 14k range. At that point we will have to evaluate where the move stands and whether the climb will continue higher. We present a simple look at the chart here but doing so allows us to see through a lot of clutter and establish a fundamental idea before digging deeper.
Thanks for taking a look at our chart and good luck to everyone
~ Albert, Paper Crypto
EURJPY H4 - Long Trade SetupEURJPY H4 - Clear consolidation (pennant) seen here on EJ. Nice strong rally with minor pullbacks from 120.300 to 124.300, now starting to see some accumulation/consolidation, gearing up for the next breakout. Bullish pennant, typically expect a bullish breakout. Generally seen as a continuation pattern, but if you wait for the break and retest, you're able to trade either way.
EURCHF H4 - Long Trade SetupEURCHF H4 - CHF has seen a recent bid, GBPCHF and EURCHF has dipped a little, trendline support on GCF has broken, but support on EURCHF sits at circa 1.07220, lets see how this zone holds as we approach close, could look to buy back up to resistance at 1.07900 which offer over 1:5, with a little bit of luck could break resistance again and look to set new highs, pushing in excess of 1:12.
GBPCAD H1 - Long Trade SetupGBPCAD H1 - Starting to restrict a little here at this resistance zone. As indicated, we ideally need to break and retest this resistance (turn to support), when we find support on the retest, this could be our buy opportunity. Break and retest is imperative, otherwise you'll effectively be buying from resistance. Some other GBP pairs looking like they want to break downside, these pairs will follow shortly.
Dow Sell position active. Target down to 24k area where we seeDow Sell position active. Target down to 24k area where we see I have been playing harmonic setups, Dow short sell downto 24k would be nice for a stop and reverse last one worked well as it approaches a double 76.8% support area. Current trade I have a hard stop above 27150 incase some spike before heading my work... R.R makes sense for allowing for such r.r (for me). any way this is my own drivvle and dont expect anyone to follow my stupid advice!! to be reading it just my own opinions of lines on screens
Spinning Top comparison near termination of Rising Wedge (2D)?I know it's kind of a stretch to make about the candlestick but trying to cover some more (bearish) angles and indicators before finally throwing in the towel. Also depends on the close. Might as well see it through to the end of the channel. Since my last chart, price has remained within the wedge as it has tightened.
DAX INDEX, Gap With Fill-Potential, These Are Important Levels!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis where we are looking at the DAX 4-hour timeframe, the recent events, the current price-structure-formation, and what we can expect the next times from the index. The DAX currently forms a really similar formation to the S%P 500 which I pointed already out in previous analysis with a gap-fill ahead and currently going ahead so far, if you did not watch this analysis already I highly recommend that you go on my account and watch it to have a full-depth-overview. The whole global markets seem to recover currently from the corona-breakdowns seen this year and the big question now is if the recovery is sustainable or new bearish action can enter the environment when considering a possible second wave. In the DAX I discovered some interesting signals which can have a big impact on the further price-development of this whole dynamic.
As you can see when looking at my chart is that the DAX recently broke above the huge triangle-formation it was forming marked with the green lines, currently it is holding strong above this level and confirmed the 13.000 which it has not seen since the corona-breakdowns this year. Furthermore, the index is holding above the 55-EMA marked in green which is an important EMA in this structure indicating a bullish or bearish environment also in single stock values as I pointed out in the previous analysis. Currently, the index established also this uptrend channel marked in grey which it established way in the origins of the triangle formation. You can watch also the major gap-fill-target-zone at 13550 where a gap stays with good fill-potential when the index confirms further in the current uptrend channel which shows already up with the recent bounce at the higher boundary of the triangle-formation.
Overall this is a high possible setup to succeed further when the DAX manages to climb higher the gap has a solid fill-potential. Now this does not mean the index is completely bullish similarly to other indices as we are still trading below the established high and not in a confirmed bull-market where the bear-market has ended one hundred percent but it does mean that the index showing up some healthy signs on the short-term which can fill ahead into the middle and long-term when they increase the next times. Therefore it is important to look at what the index does in the target zone and if there are bearish signs which can invalidate a continuation to the upside. This is really important and it will be highly interesting to see how the index develops in this range and if there can be a further continuation or a correction when not bigger pull-back awaiting as this can still develop.
In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, have a great day, and all the best to you!
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Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
CADCHF H4 - Short Trade SetupCADCHF H4 - Broken the support zone on that previous closed H4. Retests due for entries short. Descending triangle and retest of S/R so two possibly short entry points, the initial parameters marked with entry, stoploss and take profit should seem most likely, given the fact 0.69200 is now a region of supply.
NASDAQ pulls back – but is the bull run over?NASDAQ has posted weekly gains 11 of the 16 weeks since the lows of March. However, with the recent pullback in the midst of stocks like Tesla returning over 330% since its March lows, many skeptics reference 1999 as a benchmark for NASDAQ’s trajectory. However, are we going to see a repeat of 1999?
NASDAQ Then vs NASDAQ Now
The NASDAQ in 1999 was filled with companies synonymous with names such as pets.com – many of which were the equivalent of “Tesla” to retail traders. Pets.com was an online retailer that sold pet supplies. They had a successful IPO in 2000, raising $82 million, only to go bust 9 months later. This was similar to many businesses that seemed to fix inefficiencies in markets; however, they fixed them in a way that was not profitable.
This is reminiscent of WeWork – a company that seemed to fix market inefficiencies of empty office spaces and leases it mainly to smaller businesses. However, there is a key difference between what happened with pets.com and WeWork. Softbank, the majority owner of WeWork, attempted to have an IPO for the debt-laden, unprofitable company, only for investors to scoff at their proposed $47 billion valuations. The market accessed the company and deemed it not to be worth its recommended value. This is in comparison to the 2000s, where a venture capitalist at the time stated that “we’re in an environment where the company doesn’t have to be successful for us to make money.” Sure, we may point to the likes of Uber and Lift with their $1b quarterly cash burn. However, this generally highlights the difference between many businsses in the NASDAQ back then vs the now: businesses now intend to be in business in the future. (Or as accountants call it, “Going Concern”)
Morgan Stanley tracked 199 internet stocks in 1999, with a market cap of $450b ($692b accounting for inflation). Those 199 stocks generated $21b in sales ($32.32b accounting for inflation), however, they generated a net loss of $6.2b ($9.54). Compare that to the “FAANG” stocks now – which in total account for $5.18 Trillion in market value, with $197 Billion in revenues. While tech stocks during the bubble, whereas Christian Wolmar’s words, “little more than optimism feeding on itself,” tech stocks are now fully fledged businesses that print money like there is no tomorrow.
NASDAQ breaking records
Interestingly, after the 79% crash in 2000, it took the NASDAQ 15 years to regain its former high in 2015. It only took 4 years to 2019 to double
Should you go long the NASDAQ?
It depends on your time horizon. There is still a good chance there is a massive reversal due to negative investor sentiment. However, it is hard to tell, especially due to Coronavirus threats, where these types of stocks thrive relative to other stocks such as consumer retailers or luxury. However, it may be that Coronavirus proof business models that push these stocks higher.
Gold H1 - Long Trade SetupGold H1 - Absolutely flying without any real retest of that 1785 number! Sitting 300 pips above that previous resistance without any real pullback. Saying that, we haven't even really had a retest of 2012 highs at 1795. Just want to keep following this pair and seeing if we keep breaking the new high levels.
Emerging Markets BreakoutAs COVID-19 Cases start to ease globally, markets are responding with a breakout higher. EEM (MSCI World Index ETF) has recently broken out above its $41 resistance level and consolidating today, providing a good risk/reward for a long position. With a Weekly Chart that has broken above its channel resistance and Daily Chart breaking higher, we are targeting $44 and $47 to the upside. The trade that we are using to play this breakout with limited risk is a Call Debit Vertical Spread: Buy to Open 1 EEM Aug 21, 2020 42/46 Call Vertical @ $1.54 Debit
BUY TO OPEN Aug 21, 2020 $42 CALL @ $1.88
SELL TO OPEN Aug 21, 2020 $46 CALL @ $0.34
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