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NASDAQ pulls back – but is the bull run over?NASDAQ has posted weekly gains 11 of the 16 weeks since the lows of March. However, with the recent pullback in the midst of stocks like Tesla returning over 330% since its March lows, many skeptics reference 1999 as a benchmark for NASDAQ’s trajectory. However, are we going to see a repeat of 1999? NASDAQ Then vs NASDAQ Now The NASDAQ in 1999 was filled with companies synonymous with names such as pets.com – many of which were the equivalent of “Tesla” to retail traders. Pets.com was an online retailer that sold pet supplies. They had a successful IPO in 2000, raising $82 million, only to go bust 9 months later. This was similar to many businesses that seemed to fix inefficiencies in markets; however, they fixed them in a way that was not profitable. This is reminiscent of WeWork – a company that seemed to fix market inefficiencies of empty office spaces and leases it mainly to smaller businesses. However, there is a key difference between what happened with pets.com and WeWork. Softbank, the majority owner of WeWork, attempted to have an IPO for the debt-laden, unprofitable company, only for investors to scoff at their proposed $47 billion valuations. The market accessed the company and deemed it not to be worth its recommended value. This is in comparison to the 2000s, where a venture capitalist at the time stated that “we’re in an environment where the company doesn’t have to be successful for us to make money.” Sure, we may point to the likes of Uber and Lift with their $1b quarterly cash burn. However, this generally highlights the difference between many businsses in the NASDAQ back then vs the now: businesses now intend to be in business in the future. (Or as accountants call it, “Going Concern”) Morgan Stanley tracked 199 internet stocks in 1999, with a market cap of $450b ($692b accounting for inflation). Those 199 stocks generated $21b in sales ($32.32b accounting for inflation), however, they generated a net loss of $6.2b ($9.54). Compare that to the “FAANG” stocks now – which in total account for $5.18 Trillion in market value, with $197 Billion in revenues. While tech stocks during the bubble, whereas Christian Wolmar’s words, “little more than optimism feeding on itself,” tech stocks are now fully fledged businesses that print money like there is no tomorrow. NASDAQ breaking records Interestingly, after the 79% crash in 2000, it took the NASDAQ 15 years to regain its former high in 2015. It only took 4 years to 2019 to double Should you go long the NASDAQ? It depends on your time horizon. There is still a good chance there is a massive reversal due to negative investor sentiment. However, it is hard to tell, especially due to Coronavirus threats, where these types of stocks thrive relative to other stocks such as consumer retailers or luxury. However, it may be that Coronavirus proof business models that push these stocks higher.
NASDAQ:NDX
by BlackBull_Markets
2
Emerging Markets BreakoutAs COVID-19 Cases start to ease globally, markets are responding with a breakout higher. EEM (MSCI World Index ETF) has recently broken out above its $41 resistance level and consolidating today, providing a good risk/reward for a long position. With a Weekly Chart that has broken above its channel resistance and Daily Chart breaking higher, we are targeting $44 and $47 to the upside. The trade that we are using to play this breakout with limited risk is a Call Debit Vertical Spread: Buy to Open 1 EEM Aug 21, 2020 42/46 Call Vertical @ $1.54 Debit BUY TO OPEN Aug 21, 2020 $42 CALL @ $1.88 SELL TO OPEN Aug 21, 2020 $46 CALL @ $0.34 Click to Track Trade with OptionsPlay: app.optionsplay.com
AMEX:EEMLong
by OptionsPlay
Terus panjang untuk GRANFLOGRANFLO telah berdagang di atas Purata Pergerakan 20-Hari (20MA) yang condong ke atas yang merupakan petanda baik. Di samping itu, harga hanya menembusi rintangan 0.26 menguatkan kenaikan dalam pergerakan harga baru-baru ini. Penembusan ini disertai oleh jumlah dagangan yang lebih tinggi daripada purata yang menunjukkan semangat pedagang untuk mendorong harga lebih tinggi dan melepasi rintangan ini sehingga memberikan kebarangkalian lebih tinggi untuk berjaya.
GLong
by GA8
CADCHF: Top-Down Analysis & Trading Plan For Today CADCHF is retesting a major rising trend line on a daily t.f. the price has confirmed the significance of the trend line by the formation of bearish engulfing candle 17th of June. on 4H the price has successfully formed a head and shoulders formation. now the pair is stuck on a neckline. wait for a 4H bearish breakout of the neckline to short the market. you can sell aggressively or on retest. safe stop (above the right shoulder) - 0.7027 initial target - 0.6925 if the market closes above head level, setup will be invalid
Short
by VasilyTrader
10
CADJPY: Short Wisely with Inside Bar Pattern CADJPY reached a key structure resistance. dew to high volatility and very sharp bullish rally we need an additional confirmation to short the market. on 4H the price has formed a classic indecision pattern - inside bar. 6 candles are now trading within the range of the last strong bullish candle. to short wisely we need a 4H candle close below the underlined range. then we can short aggressively or on pullback. if this condition is met, chances will be high that the market will drop at least to 80.875. if not, I would not trade at all :)
Short
by VasilyTrader
6
Main street is enraged while Wall street risesA couple of weeks ago, the decorrelation between Wall Street and Main Street was related to the Coronavirus’s impact on everyone. While Main street is still reeling from the devastation the Coronavirus has brought, current protests due to another incident involving a white policeman killing a black man have sparked outrage all over the country. Former Policeman Derek Michael Chauvin killed George Floyd, a Father to two daughters, after detaining him and keeping his knee on George’s neck for over 8 minutes. The arrest was due to Floyd allegedly using a counterfeit $20 bill at a market. Initial protests were peaceful, however, turned violent quickly. Fires have been set to police precincts, and many stores have been looted and damaged. However, just like the Coronavirus, Wall Street seems to be ignoring this as well The incident between George and Derek has been the cusp of many police brutality protests in America. Most notably, Eric Garner in 2014, who also died from a Policeman, Daniel Pantaleo, using excessive force. Two terrible incidents which brought and is bringing thousands of people to protest on the streets. However, is Wall Street correct in discounting the current protests? Historically, protests have had little impact on major indices. However, this time around, a culmination of factors may make these rounds of protests more impactful on major US indices. We have a United States President desperate to win an election and Wall street As election season edges closer, President Donald Trump has had to deal with two extraordinary events in the past couple of months – Coronavirus and violent protests. His response to both events is widely regarded to be abysmal in comparison to other countries. As the United States reaches 104,000 deaths due to the Coronavirus, the task force set to look over the government’s response regarding the pandemic has seen their formal sessions reduced from three times a week to one. This is alongside no official policy on the pandemic since it’s peak. The President has responded to George Floyd’s incident with more violence, calling the protesters “thugs” on Twitter and threatening to deploy martial law to quell the violent protests if governors do not step up. The last time Martial law was implemented was in 1992 was during the infamous L.A. riots, with the L.A. governor asking the President to implement martial law, not the other way around. This may push Trump into implementing policy actions which is favorable in riling up his voter base, but not necessarily beneficial for the country, nor Wall street. A second wave from the Coronavirus is still on the table with protests adding to the likelihood Adding to policy concerns above, Trump has been adamant about reopening the U.S. economy, which many regard as a last-ditch attempt to secure a chance in winning the election. With the United States still not close to squashing the Coronavirus cases, Coronavirus transmission increasing is all but guaranteed to continue. With protests involving thousands of individuals in proximity together, there may be a chance that these protests spike the rate of transmission. Protests have been fundamentally affecting businesses With demonstrations turning violent, looting and destruction have become more prevalent. Alongside government institutions being vandalized, small and large companies have been subject to significant outrage and looting. Target has reportedly shut 75 stores due to the protests, with Amazon reducing shipping volume due to similar reasons. There have been devastating videos of the destruction, from small businesses being lit on fire to cars in Mercedes Benz dealerships being vandalized and on fire. It is too early to tell whether this may have a tangible effect on businesses in the long term, but sustained destruction may see an impact on the bottom line. Likely, these protests on its own will not affect significant indices. However, as the United States is still reeling from the Coronavirus effects, these protests may catalyze events that will shake Wall street at its core. For investors, this may be unfavorable. However, these protests may finally bring an end to racial injustice in the United States – or at least a start to an end.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets