ADABTC ADABTC
if the price opens above the green line of the uptrend channel, the price will probably cross the 200 SMMA this may give us a push to hit the target zone
Markets
Tactics Geared Towards Long Bias Hello Traders
Another Tactical Trading Tuesday at your disposal.
Here we can see EU consolidating before the next big push.
Any deviation from my initial projections will result in the trade being cancelled.
Trade safe Trade well.
The world is on the brink of a recession & the US back-pedaledFinancial markets faced a sharp surge in concern. The Fear Index (VIX) soared (+30%). The Argentine Peso lost the same amount of its value yesterday. It is all about the populists in Argentina. Well, it is quite interesting how many times you need to fail again and again to understand one thing - that is a bad idea. Tsipras and Greece again on the brink of default. Chavez and Venezuela. Johnson and the UK leave the EU. Trump and the USA wage war against the whole world.
Government of change in Italy and yellow vests in France, etc. - The list could be made even longer. But there is only one common denominator - the populists and the consequences that the country's economy pays for.
Therefore, the financial markets reaction to the news from Argentina is understandable. We know how this is going to end., preferring to discount in advance.
Not surprisingly, gold prices soared. Despite such a rapid asset value growth, we were waiting for a correction in gold this week, just needed a reason To.
Trump delays China duties. The duties delayed until Dec. 15. This is without a doubt a serious conciliatory step on the part of the United States. So, sales of gold today, in our opinion, are more than appropriate.
Returning to the world economy issue, triggered by a trade war. Singapore's GDP growth for 2019 to come in at 2% to 0.5%. The economy of Singapore, with its specifics, is almost ideally fit to be an early indicator of the world economy state. So the signal we have is alarming. Take for example yesterday’s data from the EU. The ZEW Institute's expectations index in August fell to minus 43.6 points. This is almost two times worse than the July value (minus 20.3) the lowest mark since 2011.
We continue to expect a decline in the dollar value. Logically, dollar devaluation is the only thing that could save the US economy from recessionary processes and keep Trump. So we recommend looking for points to sell the dollar.
First of all, we recommend selling it against the British pound, which yesterday unexpectedly received support from the UK labor market data: employment in June grew by + 115K (expected plus 60 K).
About the macroeconomic data, the block of inflation statistics from the UK will be published today. As well as GDP in the Eurozone.
$SPY - S&P 500 Bull Flag Forming?The S&P 500 was hit hard this week after macro headwinds such as the less than dovish Fed meeting, and more China tariffs, the $SPY has taken a beating over the last few trading days.
However, despite this short-term rough path, it appears that a "Bull Flag" ("Flag") seems to be forming at the moment. If prices can bounce off the bottom of the Flag at $288, move higher, and breach $302,the rally would continue. If it fails to do so, more selling could be right around the corner.
Investors should watch this space.
QQQ -Nasdaq Bull Flag forming?After a volatile week, $QQQ has been hit by some short-term selling pressure. This in turn, has made its technical patterns look quite bearish at the moment.
However contrary to this, it may appear that a "Bullish Flag" pattern may be forming. If the price can bounce of the bottom of the channel pattern ("Flag") at $186.31, move higher and breach the top of the Flag at $192.89, we could see prices move higher. If it fails to do so however, we could see more selling.
Watch this space over the next few trading sessions.
$IEF Bond Rally FadingDespite the market chatter of rate cuts by the Fed at the end of July, it seems that one area of the market that is not paying much attention are US 10-Year Treasuries ($IEF as a proxy).
After posting an "Evening Star" pattern on July 3rd, US Treasuries have been selling off since. As can be seen in the attached chart, the RSI has been showing negative divergence in relation to recent price rises, indicating that investor sentiment is fading, despite prices marching to record highs. Furthermore, the price is fighting hard to stay within the FR100 at $110.40, indicating that it could fall out of this area any day now.
Going forward, it appears that the rally in US 10-Year Treasuries is fading, and caution investors to take heed in this space
GBPCAD - Attractive LevelsThe pair is standing near the price level (1.6360) and hit the low for the week of October 2017.
Tomorrow all traders are waiting the strong data for the both CAD & GBP and we can expect more new low near the level 1.6060.
My view per to the both Daily & Weekly Charts this is a good area to start the long buy GBP/CAD because the Weekly Chart should go up again and mark up a resistance near the level price (1.6850) then can continue going down again.
To find more about my trading plan includes the entries and targets, please visit the page (Markets Forecast) on the site (NAJJAR INVEST)
$XAR - Clear for TakeoffOne area investors and traders should take a look at is the Aerospace and Defense industry ($XAR as proxy), which is currently the best performing industry year-to-date (as of July 5th), generating 28.59%.
On a technical basis, $XAR is trading above all three EMAs, indicating strong price action at the moment. Further, its RSI as been steadily trending higher since the end of June, indicating strong market sentiment in this industry. Further, on a global macro basis, the industry has been helped by a rise in geopolitical tensions around the globe, with the most recent being tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Western powers.
If this trend continues, $XAR could hit $107.81 in a few weeks.
NFP, Trump's obsession, Morgan Stanley's recommendationsGetting ready for the NFP, Trump's obsession, recommendations of Morgan Stanley
The financial markets are having a torrid week. Financial market participants are concerned about the appearance of a trend that the market currently is following. The concern is about the statistics based on the US labor market outcome, which in the future might provoke the US economic slowdown.
Let's try to figure out what we should and should not be expected after the outcome will be published. It seems like nobody wants to undertake an in-depth analysis of the current state of the economy and labor market, a matter of reasonable inference from “how the forecast has been calculated”. The formula is, therefore, as follows: take the simple arithmetic average of the NFP index over the last couple of years, that is all. Such an approach practically guarantees that actual data will be different from forecast data. That in itself carries an opportunity for earnings.
NFP report outcome creates adverse expectations. We believe that the 160K figure is too optimistic according to the ADP outcome.
Since we are expecting poor forecast data, our trading recommendation is - sell the dollar. Moreover, the markets are concerned about possible US interventions against the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Recall, Trump supports the dollar devaluation idea. Last time the United States came out with interventions on the foreign exchange market was in 2011.
Recently, USD to YEN rate forecast has been sharply lowered by Morgan Stanley’s analysts: from 108 to 102 at the end of this year and from 98 to 94 at the end of the next year. Motivation - a sharp decline in profitability differential: the profitability of American assets decreases faster than the profitability of European and Japanese. Recall that it is not the first time we recommend selling USDJPY.
As for our other recommendations, we will continue to look for points for sales of the Russian ruble and oil. We are working with gold today with no clear without any preference for oscillator signals.
In addition, we recommend paying attention to USDCAD. The fact is that today, statistics on the labor market of Canada will be published. So in the case of a double positive or double negative, the USDCAD may be subjected to strong pressure (ascending or descending). The best option for trading, in this case, is trading on the news. 1-2 minutes before the news releases, we set pending stop orders in both directions (buy and sell) with 30 pips at that time and wait for the news to come out. Almost certainly the movement will be strong and unidirectional. That will lead to the execution of one of the orders and will make it possible to earn quite quickly without any particular risks.
Overall view of XAUUSD - Update of July 1stThe commodity has been on a continuous bull since the beginning of June's month, and settled on the resistance zone surrounding @1440.000. Prices are sideways and consolidating, waiting for a breakout. G20 meeting ended up with a series of agreements and negotiations, which might confirm and increasing odd of a bear pressure.
Possible targets: @1360.000 (+40.00 per unit or 4,000pips) if bearish trend confirmed or @1500.000(+60.00 per unit or 6,000 pips) if bullish trend confirmed.
Advice: Await for a confirmation.
Para Bolic GainsSo I drew this curve like a month ago and so far it has been pretty much correct. We'll see if it really stays like this tho.
Peaceful US and GDP data & Bitcoin is blowing a bubbleYesterday, a fairly clear signal from the United States was received by markets and China. The USA is interested in a peaceful outcome. The information that the United States has decided to postpone the introduction of additional tariffs on Chinese goods (over $ 300 billion). Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said: ‘We were about 90% of the way’ on China trade deal and there’s a ‘path to complete this’. American companies found a way to circumvent the ‘Huawei’ ban.
Recall, we have advised selling gold at USD 1430-1435. So those ones who followed our recommendations would have earned good money.
The correlation between cryptocurrency prices reached 21% (!). We believe that there is nothing behind such growth and another price bubble will burst soon. Once again, we note that there is no logic in growth. A surge of optimism among buyers after Facebook “Libra” was announced is actually an odd thing. If Facebook had announced that Bitcoin is its reference currency, then yes, it would be possible to understand the current growth and even consider it reasonable. But we are talking about the emergence of a superpowerful competitor to Bitcoin, which will get the lion's share of the market and buying Bitcoin on this background is illogical at least. So we continue to recommend sales of key cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin primarily.
As for the macroeconomic statistics published yesterday, orders for durable goods in the United States were frankly failed (-1.3% with a forecast of -0.3%), and the trade balance also turned out to be much worse than experts' expectations ($ 75.5 billion against forecasts - $ 71.8 billion). Nevertheless, the dollar felt quite confident in the foreign exchange market.
However, today the situation might change. US WPF data might be unpleasantly surprised, and then the dollar simply will have no options than to decline.
Our trading preferences for today: we will look for points for selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, the euro and the pound. And also we will actively sell the ruble both on the intraday basis and the medium terms. As for gold, today we, perhaps, will work without obvious preferences, buying and selling gold on the intraday basis in its oversold / overbought levels.
DJT Bullish (if pullback occurs)DJT move since 24 December looks like an impulsive 5-wave pattern (With RSI divergence). Retracing to 10k is possible with coming earnings reports and profit taking. 10k - 9.5k will offer good risk/reward ratio. It would be wise to keep an eye on this.
Bonds on a TearMay's "Risk Off" has catapulted Long-Term Corporate Bonds (LQD) and 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (TLT) into two of the top 5 performing assets YTD:
LT Corp Bonds: +10.41%
20+Year Treasuries: +9.02%
Bonds on a TearMay's "Risk Off" has catapulted Long-Term Corporate Bonds (LQD) and 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (TLT) into two of the top 5 performing assets YTD:
LT Corp Bonds: +10.41%
20+Year Treasuries: +9.02%
Gold: Bullish divergence or another bear flagGold's hourly chart RSI is reporting a bullish divergence of the RSI. A closer look at the price chart, however, reveals the yellow metal is forming bear flag pattern.
Downside break wouldn't be surprising. After all, lack of buyers despite the US stocks flashing red indicates the market sentiment is quite bearish.
Also on the hourly chart, major averages are trending south.
$EWZ $BVSP $IBOV Brazilian Stocks Under PressureWith market volatility back in the global markets with a vengeance, and the US Dollar remaining strong, one EM equity market that has been hit particularly hard this year has been the Brazilian Stocks (EWZ). Sluggish growth forecasts, combined with waning support for the Brazilian President, has sent Brazilian Stocks to its lowest level of the year so far, down -2.94%.
The sharp declines have also been fueled by uncertainty over the US-China trade talks on a macro level. The combination of these two forces, the external macro headwinds and weak domestic economy, have both been a perfect storm for the under-performance of Brazilian stocks in 2019 thus far. Furthermore, on a technical basis, the EWZ continues to show deterioration within the equity market, with the 50-day EMA acting as a strong resistance March 2019 and the price action failing to break above since then.
We believe that is these headwinds continue, there will be more downside for Brazilian stocks to come. We caution investors against this equity market.
EEM - Short - $40 targetEEM which can be thought as "Emerging Markets" looks fucked to me.
Short this.
Baring a sudden trade deal this week (unlikely), EEM could see sub $40.
The puts I purchased last week have already doubled in value. :)
From a TA standpoint, let's review.
Price is below the green line (bearish) but bounced off support in the last 10 minutes of the trading day.
Thank you algo panic buying.
The price could also find support at the .618 line or $40.62 but the .786 price of $39.47 lines up rather neatly with the supporting trend line.
Time frame: end of the month, possibly by 5/17.
