Markets
We are now bullish on Abercrombie Abercrombie & Fitch Co., through its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer. The Company operates in two segments, Hollister and Abercrombie. It offers apparel, intimates, personal care products, and accessories for men, women, and kids under the Hollister, Abercrombie & Fitch, abercrombie kids, and Gilly Hicks brand names. As of August 30, 2018, it operated approximately 850 stores in North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The company sells products through its stores and direct-to-consumer operations; various third-party wholesale, franchise, and licensing arrangements; and e-commerce sites, including abercrombie.com and hollisterco.com. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in New Albany, Ohio.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co trade above its Short-Term Down Trend Line at $21.40 and is currently trading at $21.61.
We are now bullish on this stock and will now execute a long term position trading strategy.
We will execute our first block of trade at $21.67 for our Global Proprietary Equity Fund with an allowance of four(4) times the Daily Average True Range ( 4 x 0.6720=$2.688) below our entry point at $21.67 . This will give us an Exit Price of $18.98 if our bullish analysis is wrong.
This is a long term trade with four(4) price targets, four(4) entries and four(4) percentage(%) Risk. The entries will depends on price action at the support zones.
Price Target 1: $25.00
Price Target 2: $28.66
Price Target 3: $31.25
Price Target 4: $37.50
Information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. The information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable; however no guarantee is made or implied with respect to its accuracy or completeness. The information and content are subject to change without notice.
US Treasuries vs US Equities - Risk OnAfter peaking in late December 2018, the price ratio between 7-10 year US Treasuries (IEF as proxy)(numerator) and US Stocks (SPY as Proxy)(denominator) has fallen since then. This is backed up by the fact that the US Treasuries/US Stock ratio fell below its 10 day EMA (Green) and failed to move higher. We believe that this indicates that “Risk-On” sentiment is back in the financial markets, in the interim, as investors flock out of safe havens and into risky assets such as equities. It must be noted however that the overall macroeconomic backdrop is still quite challenging, as geopolitical risk in various regions continues, and global economic indicators trend downward.
Nonetheless, we believe there are some short-term opportunities in equities on a sectoral basis: Air Services, Recreational Vehicles, Southeast Regional &Pacific-focused banks, and Auto Part manufacturers & Wholesalers present opportunities for investors in the near term.
PIN BAR + FIBB RETRACEMENT + ENTRY SIGNAL1. Hourly Pin Bar
2. Lower close of previous low hourly.
3.Increasing volume for downward pressure.
4. Price could not close above structure and 0.786 fib level
5. Moderate RR based on 1st TP.
*Would wait for 4 hour close of lower low to put in another sell order.
Dow Jones WILL CRASH - I'm sorryCurrent 25000 range.
WORST CASE scenario we may see this in 2019. I sure hope not.
16098 -> 15000 --> 13329 -> 11348 --> 10842
February, April, June 2019
Watch TWTRTWTR has shown unusual strength in the recent tech selloff.
Historically $26-28 has been a major support and provided buying opportunity.
Looking to see how TWTR reacts around this level, could offer a good long opportunity.
Market dependent.... crazy fkn market too...
NASDAQ | 15% Countercyclical Trade? Rebound Before Crash?Looks like the market is poised for a rebound after shedding over 20% since October.
Above 6100 we look bullish for a rebound consolidation period. Below 5992 this idea become invalidated as dip buyers will get taken out the back and shot.
Watch for the market to reverse around the 7000 level as market participants make decisions to unwind their long positions and/or open large short positions to solidify a downtrend on the bigger timeframes.
***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK
New low highBear markets are full of these face ripping rallies, which should be faded.
My prediction is we come to retest 2500 - 2550 area, make a new lower high.
Looking to get short but not yet.
Dec could close at 2550.. or could capitulate from here.
S&P500 very volatile but possible bear for next 2 yearsOkay so this analysis is based on a very famous M pattern that only works for long term technical analysis. We see the market start this similar pattern almost every time a couple of years before a recession. and yes I know everyone is saying we are going to have a recession next year. I don't believe it And still hold by what I say recession will be anywhere between 2023-2026
$TVIX to hit $99.38, with trials to break $100.27In next 60 days, as $DJI continues to dramatically falls, among other market indices (e.g. oil most likely to hit below $40), thereby high-market caps (e.g., $MSFT, $AAPL, $AMZN) to settle down to new lower valuations, most likely all to hit below $600B, or even lower as it all used to hold on <$500B, thereupon $TVIX becomes a safe bet to break up its old adjusted supports and it is possible to reach to its $115 support.
Please feel free to comment, Happy Holidays, and trade safe!
SPY500 - charts confirming bull run is over?You can see where the support (blue trend line) broke down while a new down trending line of support (red line) was created.
Previous support line now acts as resistance. Failure to break back above the 2009 trend confirms the longest bull market in history has come to a close. Enter the bears.
I also see the left shoulder and head of a possible H&S formation. Perhaps we'll get news of a trade deal between the US and China, providing the catalyst needed to send prices higher, completing the right shoulder before said agreement falls apart or fails to materialize, sending prices down to 2470 and more likely, 2080 (.618)
Or any other number of possible catalyst.
A H&S pattern is not required to send price lower. We could just as easily bounce along the new RED support line down to 2470.
DAX potential Rally Dax 30 is forming a potential upward Rally, key entry levels 10600/630 up to 11200 1st target and 11400 2nd target.
It can fall another 2-3% but will be looking to close the down gaps by month end. Stop loss 10450/500. Risk Reward Ratio 1:6
100 point loss to 600 point gain.
DJIA - Looking Shaky at the 2.618 Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the us stock market is more likely to undergo a serious correction, as apposed to an extended 2019-2020 continuation rally. Aside from the fundamentals, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, which are also pointing to a global "risk off" environment, the TA alone shows that the 75 degree angle of this bull market is not sustainable. I am expecting a 20-30% correction to come within the next 2-3 years.
Time to start thinking defensive, and protecting that capital.
WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart Analysis 11/29Technical Analysis and Outlook
Crude oil has tumbled under $50 handle. Prices continue posting their multi-stage decent. To day, Nov 29, a barrel of US oil is hitting our Oil Dip $49 projection posted on Nov 8 . Major Key Support $49 (Stage 5) will serve as an intermediate stop of the vicious decline: however, the latest drop might be mitigated with a swift bounce to Mean Resistance 52.10 , and perhaps 54.70, and ultimately to Key Resistance 57.40 - we shall see. (For Market Commentary, please visit the usual site).
EURUSD SHORT1. AB=CD Pattern completion
2. Looking to short with a good RR.PREFERABLY AROUND 0.786 LEVEL, which is also at structure level
3. Need to watch price action and wait for short entry
4. Price is at top of channel
* Rally in price means we will need to be much more conservative and wait for more short entry confirmation first.
USDCHFWeekly resistance has finally been hit again as we form a double top with bearish confirmation.
We are also currently sitting at the 14EMA (as well as the 50SMA) awaiting a break of this supportive area, from there my bearish leg will be confirmed an in full swing.
No major news events for the coming week either besides Retail Sales releases on Thursday. By then our trade should be in profit and hopefully our stoploss at break even.
Creating your own Trading StrategySELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Creating your own Trading Strategy
"In finance, a trading strategy is a fixed plan that is designed to achieve a profitable return by going long or short in markets".Whats your Trading Plan/Strategy?
Some of the questions you need to ask yourself when creating your own strategy are as follows;
How much time during the day/night do you have to devote to trading?
How much money do you need to live on each year and how much of that must come out of trading profits?
How many distractions can you expect during the day/night?
Specify the markets and times of the day you will trade
Do i want to trade multiple systems?
Will you short sell? or go long?
Where will you place your entry/stop loss and target line?
How will i monitor my trading results/outcomes? Will i use software or just a simple excel document?
Will i need a mentor or will I be self taught?
How do I handle losing money?
Can i handle being in a trade for more then an Minute/Hour, Day, Week etc?
Will i use a phone, tablet or desktop computer to place, check or cancel my trade?
How will i improve my trading performance?
How did you go about creating your strategy? What steps did you take or follow?
Dow TopDow went up higher than I expected yesterday, but now I see clear distribution and a failed low volume rally past resistance for higher price action. What happens next is a break of support, retest and then mark down.
Dow TopI'm going to call top here. Big time bear divergent. Overnight futures hyped up the open today. Shorts are getting filled as close to 26k as folks are willing to spend. Short it in my opinion. Feel free to make this idea yours, have some indicators you'll probably find extremely profitable.
