Markets
NOW THIS IS OVEREXTENDEDThis chart is based purely on technicals from the crash in '87.
I'm amazed how consistently markets "mean revert".
With no consideration of fundamentals, I think the over extension is happening because of the over correction in '08.
No matter how you look at it though, the next crash will be bad regardless of when it happens.
VRC/BTC Poloniex 2HBouncing off the upwards trending bottom of the channel on sunday/monday however velocity was low. There is a potential down-side channel forming Leading to support Level 1 (Yellow Channel), and current resistance short term seems to me just below the weekly pivot @ 7189. This could be another good entry for an R2 Breakout like what happend on the 10th. R2 sits this week at 10,500.
The charting also seems to show a similar yet smaller duplication of price action from the 7th threw the 10th (pre break out) On the tenth R3 was hit on a wick. This weeks R3 = 12,100.
Personally I do not see it likely that a run to R3 this week is a plausible case. Reasoning: The 1st trip to R3 on the 10th was VERY short lived with multiple wics encountering heavy resistance. R2 seems to have been met with candle bodies 5 times in that four day period. If this is an uptrend (Still needs to be confirmed) that resistance may become a new support level, which would be above the weekly pivot.
In addition a wedge is also being formed (Green Line A & Blue Line B) Traders love their wedges and we are on what appears to be the bottom of that wedge. It may be a decent bit of price action to play the wedge aswell.
If line A breaks significantly, this could go into a longer term down trend for consolidation at much lower levels. Green Line A is 100% critical.
As Always, this is NOT a forcast. I am NOT a professional, nor am I a market maker. This is simply my personal idea shared.
YOU TRADE at your own risk!
If Trump winsIf trump wins I expect a market crash, around -8% from the current index price to summer 2015 lows, around 1920. To enter a short position though, I will wait for the MACD on weekly to send a sell signal, at which point the loss for the markets could extend further than 8%. I will make sure to keep an eye on 200DMA because a new president means that many long-term investors will be shifting their portfolio composition.
$DXY Forecast based on First 100 Days in OfficeA Trump victory would help support my bias toward A major market correction, caused by the fed raising rates far beyond the 50bp increments that has been talked up in the past.
I do believe A major correction is due. but the owners need a Scapegoat.
A Clinton victory, in my opinion, is already priced into the global marketplace.
Either way, on November 8th, I expect the DXY to clear out any liquidity at 88/100 figures
DAX Short on the short-medium term From 10280-380 area there was a very good price area that could be considered as a BULL area. The problem is that this movement was denied in area 10800. Now this area is to be considered as a Short area, because of the non-performance of the Long movement from 10380
The 3 targets are: 10380, 10270 and then 10100
WaitMarket is telling you to wait cause there's no clear direction , If you trade , you will lose. It's that simple. Try to not trade instead of observe and think over price action. When opportunity is there , Ride it !!! Wish you great weekend , no trade executions on Friday , Wait for Weekly close :)
EUR/GBP SIMPLE ELLIOTT WAVES EUR/GBP price made a bearish move to the mental post-brexit barrier and strong 1D support level.
We are currently following a comfortable Elliott-Wave pattern hitting A.B,C,D waiting on E
Daily Bearish hammer formed at 1D support level (0.833) which is a strong indication of a reversal.
Heiken Ashi candlesticks should turn Blue (Bullish) tomorrow if price follows reversal candle, setting price up for a bullish move towards 1D resistance
SL: Below 1D support
TP1: 0.86
TP2: 0.87
RISK/REWARD: 5.23
Dow Jones Bearish FibonacciHere we have some Fibonacci ratio confluence that could be very powerfull
We have stops above the 1.618 extension wich, in case that price action breaks it, means that the price is not overextended and that it has a high likelihood of going bullish.
So we will expect a move towards of take profit or stop loss next week.
You also have to have in mind that in summer markets are very slow so, patiente. Remeber your setups, do not trade other setups wich you dont know nothing about, just in case. Trade responsibly!
US Dollar Trade PlanUS Dollar has shown very little price movement since the 2014 bull run. US Dollar has stayed in a tight range and based on technical indications we could be seeing one more low before a catapult to higher highs.
US OIL , GOLD , SILVER, EMERGING MARKETS
Rapid movement in US Dollar can have a big impact on USOil as well as silver XAGUSD and gold XAUUSD. Higher US Dollar can also have a big impact on emerging markets EEM and we could see money flow from US into other investments.
USD/CHF - Breakout pendingWill be looking to take a long position on USD/CHF based on the following reasons:
- 0.618 fib support held strong
- Inside a falling wedge which is normally a sign of reversal
- Following NFP earlier this month, the dollar has seen unprecedented strength, therefore I expect this to continue
As always, trade safe
Easy Jet - Risk of a sharp correctionWith oil prices down and looking bearish, airliners may see a much needed corrective rally.
Easy Jet daily chart shows, rising bottoms on the hourly chart. As long as June 27 low of 990.50 is not breached on day end closing basis, the risk of a snap back to 1100 levels is high.
XAU/USD Market Analysis and Trading Tips 6th July 2016
Overview:
The Gold markets rally during the course of the session on Tuesday to the level of $1370. At this point in time, we strongly believe that market is on its bull rally and ready to go higher. The Gold market sentiment is still positive. The main trend of Gold is bullish on charts and and market is sustaining above the 100 days moving average on its 4 hourly chart. It is having important resistance level at significantly psychological number at the level of $1400 and support level at the level of $1340. On its 4 hourly charts, MACD is sustaining in its positive territory and RSI is sustaining in its buying zone indicating the upcoming bearish trend in the oil prices. On intra day basis one can go for buy on lower level strategy.
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