The Dance of Support and Resistance in Forex and Gold 💃🏦✨
Support and resistance levels are like the heartbeat of the forex and gold markets, constantly pulsating with potential trading opportunities. But what happens when these vital levels flip roles? In this comprehensive guide, we'll explore the intriguing phenomenon of how support can morph into resistance and vice versa. Through real-world examples, you'll discover the dynamic interplay of these key levels and how they can shape your trading decisions.
Understanding the Flip: Support Becomes Resistance and Vice Versa
Support and resistance levels are fundamental to technical analysis, often seen as static lines on a chart. However, the market's fluidity means that these levels can switch roles over time. Let's delve into why and how this flip occurs:
1. Support Becomes Resistance
When a former support level switches to become resistance, it's often due to a change in market sentiment. Traders who previously bought at that support level may now turn into sellers, creating resistance.
2. Resistance Becomes Support
Conversely, resistance levels can transform into support zones when market dynamics change. Traders who previously sold at resistance may now view it as a buying opportunity, creating support.
3. Psychological Factors
Psychological factors play a substantial role in this support/resistance dance. Traders' perceptions of key levels can influence their behavior. Breakouts above resistance or below support can trigger a herd mentality, leading to a swift role reversal.
Understanding the fluid nature of support and resistance levels is a valuable tool for forex and gold traders. These key levels don't remain static; they evolve with changing market sentiment and events. By recognizing how support can become resistance and vice versa, traders can adapt their strategies and make more informed decisions. This dynamic interplay adds an exciting dimension to technical analysis and can be a significant asset in your trading journey. So, join the dance of support and resistance, and let it guide your path to trading success. 💃🏦✨
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Marketsentiment
USD/CHF Weekly Analysis - Trading Insights for the Week AheadWelcome to our weekly USD/CHF analysis In this post, we'll provide you with a comprehensive outlook for the USD/CHF currency pair for the upcoming trading week.
📈 Key Weekly Analysis Points:
- Strong Resistance Levels: Explore the critical resistance levels to monitor during the upcoming trading sessions.
- Technical Indicators: Get insights into the technical indicators shaping the USD/CHF's potential movements.
- Market Sentiment: Assess the current market sentiment and its potential impact on the pair.
- Trade Strategies: Discover potential trading strategies and setups for the week ahead.
If you're a trader or investor interested in USD/CHF, this post offers valuable insights to help you navigate the markets effectively on TradingView.
Please remember to follow us for regular updates and analysis. Feel free to share your thoughts and questions in the comments section below. We value your feedback and interaction!
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Trading involves risks, and it's crucial to manage them wisely.
Unraveling the Traits of Pivotal Bullish and Bearish Candles 🕯
In the intricate world of forex trading, understanding the nuances of candlestick patterns is akin to deciphering a secret code. Candlesticks are more than just price representations; they embody the ebb and flow of market sentiment. In this comprehensive article, we will delve into the characteristics of crucial bullish and bearish candles, unveiling the stories they tell through real-world examples. By mastering these candlestick traits, you'll enhance your ability to spot trading opportunities and make informed decisions in the forex market.
Unveiling Bullish Candle Characteristics
1. Long White Candle:
A long white candle is a robust bullish signal. It signifies a substantial price increase during the candle's timeframe. The candle typically opens near its low and closes near its high, reflecting strong buying pressure.
2.Bullish Engulfing Candle:
A bullish engulfing candle occurs when a smaller bearish candle is followed by a larger bullish candle that engulfs it entirely. This pattern suggests a shift from bearish sentiment to bullish sentiment.
Unmasking Bearish Candle Characteristics
1. Long Black Candle:
A long black candle is a prominent bearish signal, reflecting substantial selling pressure. It opens near its high and closes near its low, showcasing a significant price decline during its timeframe.
2. Bearish Engulfing Candle:
A bearish engulfing candle forms when a smaller bullish candle is followed by a larger bearish candle that engulfs it entirely. This pattern suggests a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment.
Trading Implications
1. Confirmation of Trends: Bullish and bearish candles often confirm existing trends. Traders can use them to enter or add to positions in the direction of the trend.
2. Reversal Signals: These candles can also signal potential trend reversals when they appear at key support or resistance levels. Traders look for follow-up candles to confirm reversal patterns.
3. Volatility Assessment: The size and characteristics of these candles provide insights into market volatility, aiding traders in adjusting their risk management strategies.
Candlestick analysis is an art that can help traders uncover market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities. By understanding the characteristics of important bullish and bearish candles, you can gain deeper insights into price movements and enhance your ability to make informed decisions in the dynamic world of forex trading. 📊🕯📈
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Unveiling the Battle Between Buyers and Sellers🕯📈🤝
Introduction
Candlestick charts are a cornerstone of forex trading, offering valuable insights into market dynamics. One key element of a candlestick is the size of its body, which provides crucial information about the strength of buyers and sellers. In this comprehensive article, we'll explore how the size of a candle's body reflects market sentiment, provide real-world examples, and equip you with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.
Understanding Candlestick Bodies
The body of a candlestick represents the difference between the opening and closing prices within a specific time frame. Its size and color convey essential information about the battle between buyers (bulls) and sellers (bears).
Interpreting Candlestick Body Size
1. Large Bullish Candle Body:
A candle with a large bullish body indicates strong buying pressure. In such cases, the closing price is significantly higher than the opening price, suggesting that buyers have dominated the market during the given time frame.
2. Large Bearish Candle Body:
Conversely, a candle with a substantial bearish body signifies strong selling pressure. The closing price is well below the opening price, indicating that sellers have dominated.
3. Small or Doji Candle Body:
A small or doji candle body suggests indecision or a balance between buyers and sellers. The opening and closing prices are close, and the body may appear as a thin line or a small box.
Relevance and Trading Strategies
1. Trend Confirmation: Large bullish or bearish candle bodies can confirm the strength of an existing trend. Traders may use such candles to enter or add to positions in the direction of the trend.
2. Reversal Signals : Small or doji candle bodies near support or resistance levels can signal potential trend reversals. Traders watch for follow-up candles to confirm reversal patterns.
3. Volatility Assessment: Candle body size can also provide insights into market volatility. Larger bodies often accompany higher volatility, while smaller bodies indicate calmer market conditions.
Conclusion
Mastering the interpretation of candlestick bodies is a valuable skill in forex trading. It enables traders to gauge the strength of buyers and sellers, confirm trends, identify potential reversals, and assess market volatility. By incorporating this knowledge into your trading strategy, you can make more informed decisions and enhance your ability to navigate the ever-changing forex market. 📊🕯📈
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Candlestick Body Size: Forex Buyer Power Indicator 🕯💪
Get ready to unravel a powerful secret in forex trading – how the size of a candlestick's body reveals the strength of the buyers in the market! 📊💪🕯 In this comprehensive guide, we'll dive into the fascinating world of candlestick analysis and show you how to harness the body size indicator for smarter trading decisions. 📈💡
Understanding Candlestick Body Size Indicator 💡
The size of a candlestick's body – the rectangular area between its open and close prices – is a visual representation of the battle between buyers and sellers. A larger body signifies stronger buying or selling activity, offering insights into market sentiment and potential price movements.
The Power of Candlestick Body Size: Insights & Examples 🕯🔍
1. Example 1: Strong Bullish Sentiment 🐂📈
2. Example 2: Weak Bullish Sentiment 🐂📉
3. Example 3: Bearish Dominance 🐻📉
Empowering Your Trading with Candlestick Wisdom 💰🕯
Understanding the power of candlestick body size allows you to interpret market dynamics beyond mere price movements. Armed with this knowledge, you can make informed decisions, manage risk effectively, and navigate the forex market with heightened confidence. 💼📉📈
Don't let the market's mysteries intimidate you! Learn to read between the lines of candlestick body sizes, and watch as your trading prowess reaches new heights. 🚀🕯
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Trading precision!Please search for my previous post, where I anticipated the last available effective demand zone and how important it was. Sure enough, price reacted on Friday and it's already taking H4 highs as mentioned.
This is not a flex, as it's possible to do this very often with high precision, but an attempt to demonstrate how important it is to have a clear analysis and the ability to read price. This way, you'll always know what to do, even when you're wrong and when that happens, it doesn't feel painful because you know exactly what's going on.
FULL DISCLOSURE: I did not hold the position over the weekend, I closed it on Friday and took another long yesterday based on the same idea. How you manage the position is a different topic.
DJI yearly CRASH or Sideways incoming??Looking at past times on DJI yearly time frame where Stoch rsi has crossed below the 80line it has resulted in major market crashes or dead sideways markets for long periods.. With how the economy is world wide at the moment id say things are about to get pre ugly for the markets.
Monthly time frame also trying to set a Lower High.. Not feeling too optimistic
Any thoughts on subject is welcome and would love to hear others opinions on the current state
MARKETS week ahead: June 12 – 18Last week in the news
It was quite a stressful week for the crypto market, as the SEC continued with its effort to put crypto business in the US under “regulation”. On the other hand, US equity markets continue with gains during the last month, with S&P 500 moving above 4.300 points. Bitcoin is ending the week modestly above $25.5K, while Ether manages to hold above $1.7K.
Previous week started with bad news for the crypto market. Both Binance and Coinbase were sued by the SEC alleging unregistered business aside from a few other regulatory topics. As officially published on SEC`s website, the SEC filed 13 charges against Binance entities and its founder Changpeng Zhao. As noted, charges include “operating unregistered exchanges, broker-dealers, and clearing agencies; misrepresenting trading controls and oversight on the Binance.US platform; and the unregistered offer and sale of securities''. As for the lawsuit against Coinbase, SEC has officially published that the company is alleged for “unregistered offer and sale of securities in connection with its staking-as-a-service program”. Another issue is that SEC named at least 13 coins which they defined as “crypto asset securities' ', including Solana token, Cardano`s token ADA, Polygon`s MATIC and Protocol Lab`s Filecoin. Robinhood exchanger immediately took an action delisting all coins named in the SEC lawsuit. Market reaction was that altcoins crashed during the week. Still, BTC and ETH have not been significantly affected. All these companies made a statement during the week, strongly disagreeing with the SEC that these tokens are securities. On the other side, many analysts and investors are noting that this is all a result of lack of clear regulation in the US for crypto businesses. There are also those who find SEC lawsuits as positive for crypto, as they will finally bring some clarity into regulation.
After the lawsuit from the SEC, Binance.US made an announcement that from June 13th they will be transitioning to all-crypto exchange, in which sense, they will no longer support deposits in USD, including USD-based trading pairs. All products currently offered will be available but only in crypto currencies.
Markets in the US were generally supported by the recent debt-ceiling deal, and recent jobs data, where the US economy showed high resilience to the current macroeconomic environment and monetary measures imposed by the Fed. The US equity market indices were up to their highest level since August last year. However, not all economists are of the same opinion regarding resilience of the US economy. In an interview with CNBC, Bob Michele, Chief investment officer in JPMorgan Chase, noted that the previous recession in 1980 started after an average 13 months after the Fed`s final rate increase, and that current economic situation reminds him of that period. He also noted that industries which will suffer the most are “regional banks, commercial real estate and junk-rated corporate borrowers”. During the week ahead the inflation data will be released, and a FOMC meeting will be held, where potential for further rate increases will be discussed.
Crypto market cap
For one more time in the history of the crypto market, regulators were the ones to completely spoil a good game. Monday started with negative news about a new lawsuit from SEC against Binance, while already the following day another lawsuit emerged against Coinbase, one of the largest and also publicly listed crypto exchangers. Someone might say, there is nothing new with SEC, still, this time lawsuits were different and imposed significant market reaction. Namely, within the lawsuits SEC named at least 13 altcoins, treating them as the crypto asset securities. Some of the names mentioned include Polygon (MATIC), Sandbox (SAND), Filecoin (FIL), Axie Infinity (AXS), Chiliz (CHZ), Flow (FLOW), Internet Computer (ICP), Near (NEAR), Voyager (VGX), Dash (DASH) and Nexo (NEXO). This imposed significant run-off from these assets and also forced liquidations in margined open positions, pushing the prices further to the downside. Considering the circumstances, BTC, ETH and XRP were among rare coins which had a relatively good week, with a decrease in price below 9%. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 9% w/w, losing FWB:98B in total value. Daily trading volumes doubled from a week before, moving around $85B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year decreased to 33%, where it has added a total $253B to the market cap.
It was quite a bad week for altcoins, which lost a significant portion of their previous value. Major coins, excluding BNB, lost less than 10%, which might be treated as positive considering general circumstances. BTC lost some 5.8% w/w, erasing almost FWB:31B in its total value. ETH was down by 8.3%, losing $19B in total market cap. XRP was also on the downside, with total cap decrease of almost 6% or $1.6B. BNB was strongly affected by the negative news, and lost more than 23% in value or $11B. ADA was mentioned in the SEC lawsuit, so its value dropped by more than 32%, loosing $4B in market cap. In this group belongs Filecoin, which was down by 31% , Polygon dropped by 37.6% w/w, while DASH was down by 31%. Majority of all other altcoins were down between 15% and 26%. The only coin which gained in value is Tether, with an increase in circulating coins by 0.26% w/w. As for other coins, there has been some increased circulation by 0.2% for Stellar and Polkadot, while Solana and Filecoin increased their circulating coins by 0.3% w/w.
Crypto futures market
Regardless of general negative news on the market, the BTC and ETH futures were holding relatively good during the week. However, it should be considered that CME is closed during weekends, so Saturday trading sessions on the spot market still have not been priced by futures on the organized market. BTC short term futures were closed on Friday less than 3% lower from the week before. December 2023 was traded at a 0.98% lower price from the week before, at level of $27.355. Futures maturing in December next year were down by 1.34% w/w, and were closed at a price of $27.990.
ETH short term futures were traded down by some 3.6%, while futures maturing in December this year ended the week flat, with the latest price of $1.889. Longer term ETH futures were down by some 1.2%, with December 2024 ending the week at level of $1.919.
Will the NZD/USD still be able hold above the 0.60 lvl?The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reinvoked the power of the interest rate hikes to continue the battle in bringing inflation down. This news push the USD near the 106 lvl and hit the NZD/USD, pulling price below the 0.61 lvl. This was a hit to my position, but I ok with the floating loss currently. In order to reduce my risk, I added a stop at 0.60 because my thought is, if price pushes below the 0.60 lvl and holds by the end of the week, then I don't think I wrong on my R/A on this pair; I am just early. What I am going to do if I do get stopped out, I would wait a few days, see if price is still pushing lower, and then start building my position again. My objective is to have a max position before price pushes above the 0.65 lvl, so getting into a position below the 0.60 lvl, I think is an opportunity. There is also the thought of waiting until the USD NFP and CPI are released and the FED Rate Hike, as this could push the NZD/USD even further down.
I do need to work on my conviction and hope lvl. My hope lvl is around 55% and my conviction lvl is less then 50%. Since that is the case, I am not going to add anymore positions unless I am able to get my conviction lvl to 60%. I am still thinking in the near to longer term, price on the NZD/USD will push higher, but these two - three weeks are going to cause a lot of volatility.
I have another previous published thought on the NZD utilizing the Monthly chart. I wanted to add the NZD/USD update on the daily chart also, in order to see the daily moves in the market and see if my plan pans out.
Again, this is what I am thinking of doing and I am ok with taking the risk. Conduct your own analysis and take on the risk that feels comfortable to you.
Y'all have some good trading out there.
Price on the EUR/USD is likely to break the 1.05 lvlThe EUR/USD is pushing lower because of Friday's USD PCE coming out higher then expected, and the previous reading revised higher. This is supposedly the FED's favorite measure of inflation, which gives the FED additional evidence to increase rate hikes. I do not think that the FED will be inclined to raise rates in the March meeting by 50 basis points. It will likely stick to 25 basis points. I am holding onto my positions (short side) and I am looking to place a stop at the 1.06 lvl. If price does break 1.05 (which is likely), price will be able to test out the 1.0450 lvl. At this point, I am deciding on whether I want to keep holding or not because I have other pairs I am looking at.
On The 1.60 level is holding on the GBP/CAD, but for how long?Price on GBP/CAD is pushing a little lower, but is still trading above the 1.60 level. The GBP/USD was able to break lower, below the 1.20 support and was able to hold. It is only a matter of time before the GBP/CAD breaks lower and I still think price is going to be able to do that. It will take about 6 months for this to happen, but in the meantime if price just stagnates, that would be great (I have a trade on this pair).
Will the NZDUSD be able to hit the 0.70 lvl this Year?This pair is one of my top focuses for this year and I almost let it slip by. After conducting my R/A this weekend I came to find out that the New Zealand economy might start over heating and the RBNZ is possibly going to be in a position to keep rising rates. The RBNZ is looking to raise rates to around 5.5% (at least that is what is projected). The data on New Zealand is:
Annual GDP: 6.4% and ranging
Unemployment: 3.4% and declining
Wage Growth: 4.3% and rising
Inflation Rate: 7.2% and rising
Industrial Production: 16.1% and rising
Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 and ranging
Retail Sales: -4% and declining
Housing Index: 186.2791 and declining
The technicals are also showing a double bottom and a descending wedge which adds to the probability that price might push higher.
Sentiment is also pushing more towards neutral for the USD as there are starting to be increased talks about the FED slowing down on interest rate hikes and being more dovish.
The Fundamentals, Technicals, and Sentiment are lining up which push my conviction lvl around the 60% lvl which got me to start planning on how to build a decent position on this pair. I have a position on this pair already at 10k (I am look to build to a standard lot for now).
This is what I am look at. If price stays above the 0.60 lvl, then it is highly likely that price will push higher. If price pushes below the 0.60 lvl by the end of March, then I don't think I am wrong, but I would think that I was too early. I would take my loss and retrograde for now and then come back in. My objective is to build a position up on the NZD before the 0.65 lvl (possibly around the 0.63 lvl, if lower, that would be ideal). If I am able to get into a full position before the 0.65 lvl, see price push higher to 0.68, and place a stop around the 0.65 lvl, I would be in a good spot to just hold onto the NZD and see if it pushes up higher.
If this doesn't work, like always, back to the drawing board to update my plan accordingly. But I think this is a high probability trade that will last for a while.
Like always, these are my thoughts and this is how I trade. Please come up with you own plans and ideas and ways to trade. This can be extremely risky and with the uncertainty in the markets, I could potentially blow up my account if I am not careful. Y'all have some great trading out there.
General US Market Update - HeatmapHeatmap SP500
One may get concerned about the relatively red looking Heatmap from yesterdays' session. Don't bee too concerned!
Let's take a deeper look into what happened yesterday:
Nasdaq Makes A Normal-Looking Pullback
The Nasdaq, having rallied as much as 11% in the prior four sessions, seemed all but destined for a pullback. That's exactly what investors got Wednesday.
A 1.5% decline by the composite index on Wednesday may sting those who went long right before the market open.
Yet in the context of the overall market's fledgling uptrend, the Nasdaq's loss on Wednesday does not disturb the current upward trend. Plus, volume fell sharply on the Nasdaq vs. Tuesday's session.
That's actually nice for the bulls. Lower volume on down days signals that the big players on Wall Street — from mutual funds and banks to pension plans and large investment advisors — are not dumping shares. This latest pullback can therefore be considered as a natural reaction to the previous up-sessions.
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General US Market Update - HeatmapHeatmap
The heatmap for the SP500 shows that the market rally continues and the market environment overall is pretty healthy.
General Market Update
Market Rally Keeps Rising
Dow Jones futures tilted lower overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. A strong stock market rally Tuesday morning faded, briefly turning mixed after Russian missiles reportedly hit Poland.
The stock market rallied Tuesday morning on yet another tame inflation report. Walmart (WMT) earnings also helped. So did Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosing that it took a big new position in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).
The major indexes pared gains somewhat, but then quickly turned mixed on the reported Russian missile news. But the Dow recovered to turn positive again.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 7 basis points to 3.8%. The U.S. dollar also declined.
U.S. crude oil prices rose 1.2% to $86.92 a barrel after briefly spiking more than 3% on the Russian missile news. Natural gas futures advanced 1.7%.
The stock market rally opened strongly as the producer price index came in lower than expected, with core PPI flat vs. September.
What does that mean for swing-traders?
Swing-Traders can increase their exposure in the current market environment which appears to be quite healthy. But remember: only increase your risk and exposure on the back of gains in your own portfolio. If the current trades in your portfolio do not work, there is no legimitate reason to buy additional stocks.