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BTC 2021 Fractal nears BO pt but 12k still possible if rejectedBTC seems to be repeating a 2021 pattern before it BO the black line & rallies to 69k. Similarly, it broke below the red trendline, broke above it & came down again & retested it. Is a big rally also coming? BULLISH SCENARIO: If BTC also breaks above the black trendline in the next few days, then it will also break above the ma100 & ma50 lines & also the Ichimuko Cloud. The ultimate resistances will be the descending black & blue trendlines (you may also see them as falling wedges with the red line as base) before any true rally. WATCHING SPY: We should watch SPY for any risk-off play as market sentiment changes quickly. I am still optimistic for an “Up UP & Away scenario” in the 4Q2022 specially if the next CPI report still supports peaking inflation & the FED becomes less hawkish. BEARISH CASE: if BTC gets rejected in the next few days by the ma100, ma50, Ichimuko Cloud & also the black & blue trendlines, then 12k remains on the table. The ABC wave playbook: BTC is so far holding 18k which is 2x retracement of wave B. Looking at the bigger ABC wave from 69k, 12k will be a reasonable destination since wave C will be equal to wave A (a perfect ABC wave). CAUTION ahead: BTC is currently overbought & may be shortterm bearish. HOWEVER, Rsi may remain overbought for a long time in a strong bullrun. Not trading advice but I hope this helps somebody analyze better & manage upcoming risk.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by xtremerider8
SPY will bottom before FED ends rate hikes:see contrarian viewLast August 27 I already gave the bearish scenario wherein the FED continues even into a recession. The downsides were 350, 320 & 280 IF SPY breaks below 400 & 380. Today, Friday, SPY seems to be doing an oversold bounce. So let us assume the contrarian role against the market’s extreme pessimism. What if the market sentiment changes & the market suddenly realizes that the FED is just pretending to be very hawkish just to kill that big rally from June bottom of 362? From June low, SPY rallied a little more than 61.8% Fibonacci to be stopped by the ma200 at 431. From there it reversed down exactly to Fib 0.618 at 3900. This bullish view will take into account certain things: *The duty of the FED is not only price stability & full employment but also to fund the government. Rising interest rates will blow up the govt debt. *Inflation has gone down in commodities like gasoline, food, durable goods. Rents & wages are more sticky. Fuel prices will go down if Iran deal push through or if Saudi agrees to increase production. The US, unlike EU, has enough supply of natural gas. *A FED pause is still possible in 4Q2022 or early 2023 if inflation & the economy really slows down due to demand destruction, earnings recession, lay-offs & rising unemployment. FED may keep rates steady for a while & then continues with less hawkish hikes. If rate hike is overdone, rate cuts & QE will return quickly to save jobs, the economy & control government debt. *This may be enough for sentiment to change & for buyers to come in pushing this rebound even higher. Let us just assume that the June low of 362 is already the bottom & SPY is doing an ABC wave up. Using Fib extensions, the possible levels are 460, 476 (double top), 500 & 530. Volatility will remain high with recession fears & geopolitical uncertainties not going away soon. See the wedge down & the wedge up. FADING THE FED IS TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE but fundamentally less probable. Not trading advice
AMEX:SPYLong
by xtremerider8
SPY the Bulls Are Back In Town...Hello Traders, I hope you all are doing well. I just wanted to shoot a quick update for anyone a little shaken by the market or confused as to what's going on. TLDR: Yes, there are still geopolitical concerns, but at the moment it's not important to the market, because we've already seen the response of the world and it has strengthened relations of NATO and basically blocked off Russia from World Trade and Financially. The Market's prefer hikes over inflation, and technical trading signals are still nearly perfect (as seen in above and below charts). So we have our answer as to who's economy is really likely to crash. Although the US would like to help more, there are limitations as to what we (the US) and other countries can do without sparking a Cold War or WW3, so the markets are pretty content that everyone is threading that needle. Now, why did the market bounce off the fed announcements? Many people without context assume that tapering and rate hikes are a bad thing for the markets; their thought process is that it makes valuations less attractive, due to more difficult borrowing for companies and consumers... This idea isn't wrong, it's just that they're missing a few pieces of information in that logic. First, the markets like policy that are good for the overall economy. Tapering and hikes will help fight inflation; monetary tightening is a signal that the Fed believes the economy is on firm footing. That is a good thing. The market easily prefers hikes over inflation worries. Second, historically, while stocks tend to fall the month following rate hikes, they typically end the year up around 5%. Lastly, there is progress on the geopolitical front. The World has condemned Russia's leader's actions; as we see a constructive movement in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, signs from China that it will roll back its broad regulatory crackdown and play a little nicer with the rest of the world. We do also predict gas prices to continue in a downward spiral and fall substantially in the coming months due to the panic buying subsiding, along with other geopolitical and psychological factors, which need not go into too much detail on. (It's important to note for those unfamiliar, the US is the #1 producer of crude oil, with about 20% of global supply, Saudis at around 12%, Russia 11%, and Canada at 6%). As such, the US is not reliant on Russia for oil; unfortunately, some of our allies are, to some extent. The Chart As a technical trader, that was a lot of fundamental analysis. Sometimes it's good to have both, especially when catalysts are often the driver on big movers. As I mentioned in my previous posts, technical trading has been on-point. Almost to the penny. On Weds, March 16th, SPY gapped up, perhaps on the positive geopolitical news mentioned. Now we're sitting on a trend reversal and (yet again) a retest of the 200MA. Honestly, I think we will hang around the 200MA even if we do break to the upside, at least for a month or two as I had predicted back in January (see below) . Please see for references. January. If you appreciated this please: Like, support, share, follow. Sincerely, Mike (UPRIGHT Trading)
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
4
Risk Model for the US Stock MarketThe S&P 500 closed 2021 as the top major stock market index. History suggests 2022 could be another strong year for investors. While it ended the day with a minor loss of 0.3%, the S&P 500 closed the year up just shy of 27%, the NASDAQ rallied 21% in 2021 - overall an outstanding performance of the larger indices. Our risk model improved over the last 2 weeks in 2021, but key indicators still suggest an elevated risk for momentum swing traders. Some details: - after the >5% rally in the second half of December, many of the distribution-days over the recent 25 trading period have lost their relevance. The DD-count shows positive. - number of stocks making new 52w lows is still higher than number of stocks making new 52w highs - alarm signal! - number of stocks trading below their 200d MA > number of stocks above their 200d MA - alarm signal! - up/down volumes still below their 50d MA's and below 1 - alarm signal! - the advance decline line significantly improved over the last two weeks and is now trending upwards. This could be a very promising signal as this is a leading indicator. - bulls vs bears is a contrarian indicator which also improved over the last to weeks. Overall, momentum swing traders can be somewhat optimistic going into 2022. For now, risk is still on an elevated level and swing traders should not yet get too aggressive. Take a few smaller pilot positions and if things start working in your own portfolio, start to increase exposure.
AMEX:DIALong
by JS_TechTrading
$SPY Strong support, but strong resistance too... Hello Traders, I hope you had a great day. Today we saw an interesting sentiment shift as soon as AAPL started falling off; with news of an iPhone supply shortage guidance adjustment, the supply chain and and inflation worries took over. The interesting thing about inflation is that it's partially psychological. When we see rising prices or missing things on the shelf, we think the worst, and it's almost self fulfilling with our collective reaction; causing risk-off, bond buying, and a ripple across the markets. Do I think supply bottlenecks from the pandemic matter? Of course. Do I also think just about everyone who wants an iPhone will wait to get their iPhone... Also yes. Just like some demand was pulled forward from the pandemic, other demand will be pushed backward. So, where are we going next? Well, that's a tricky question, the pulse of the markets have been a little tough to pinpoint. I've boxed on the attached chart, where I think we churn in the short term. It appears that we are literally sitting right around the Strongest Support and the Strongest Resistance on this chart (notice the POC for several periods). Therefore, we will likely need to either churn it out till it weakens S/R and we breakout... Or we see a strong catalyst in one or the other direction... I do see some signs of the bull's returning, but we shall see. Please leave some feedback and hit the like/follow. Cheers, Mike
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
The 2022 Tech Bubble Fractals and Sentiment AnalysisIntroduction I was inspired by CryptoKaleo's post (original post below) on the "Next Tech Bubble", where he predicted a tech bubble to take place in the coming years based on the fractals of the 1998-2002 Dot com bubble market price action. Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk. Analysis I myself have been also thinking about the probability of another 2000-esque bull rally for the Nasdaq index for a while now. You can check out my analysis on the comparison between the market in 2020 and the Dot com bubble, which I posted last year: My goal for this post was to not only compare the price action of the two periods through fractals, but also to research the headlines of financial news from the past, in order to more accurately research the sentiment that was reflected on the media. The quotes in red are direct quotes from 1998-2002, and the quotes in black are recent news that reflect the current market sentiment. We can see a clear shift in sentiment; optimism > euphoria > fear > surrender. The most notable parts of the cycle is the euphoria at the absolute top of the market, and sense of despair at the bottom of the market. This figure will further help you understand the structure of a market bubble, and the market sentiment according to the price action of the market. What's extremely interesting is that the Dot com bubble demonstrated a textbook pattern of a market bubble structure. Conclusion There may be multiple news that could potentially trigger the next market bubble. If one were to occur, it's highly likely that we see it happen in the tech/bio sector this time, where insane multiples are given based not on the current financials of the company, but the prospect of it. While there is also a probable case where we don't see a bubble at all, if it we were to see the market make parabolic moves up to overbought levels, referring to fractals of the past, and comparing the market sentiment of the past, could provide a guideline for us to refer to. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
Editors' picks
TVC:IXICLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
87
The nature of the cryptocurrency market movementThat's what have we identified while trading and analyzing the market. Three main movement types! 1. Exit from accumulations - breakouts of levels 2. Working with participants (bounces and corroding densities), trading market inefficiencies, collecting volatility, entries to continue the movement 3. Trading bounces (corrections): reversal patterns, density in the order book, volumes, catching knives What do you think about this and how will you describe crypto market sentiment?
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Berzerk_invest
9
Stophunt playFundamentals: Fundamental are mixed. Technical analysis will take the lead for this idea. We will target a smaller movement because there is no fundamental to drive the price. Market sentiment and technical analysis: This is one of my favourite setups to execute: we will take advantage of the too obvious retail traders setups and execute it in a way that we will enter while retail noobs get stopped out. On this chart, I identified a setup that is obvious and very clean to every retail trader out there: Trend-line 3rd touch, 61,8% fib, nice S&R and 50ma. Based on this information, I know that myself 5 years ago would have taken this trade with my eyes closed. We will not enter this. I will enter this trade based on the potential stop hunt that will occur from the grey circle (@1,96900). Normally, the stop hunt will reach 78,6% in confluence with my trendline, my KL and the 100ma. My SL is large enough if the price needs to reach the 200ma and the lower supports. Lower than this and the setup is invalid. Final tip: When you are looking for a setup, ask yourself if this setup is beautiful to the eyes of new traders entering the market. If this is the case, you should use this information to tweak your analysis so you don't end up stopped out like them. They may have the right direction like you, but they won't have the good execution like you. ;)
Long
by fohaineault
NQM2021. How does this correction compare to Feb/March?The Feb/March correction had me a lot more worried that we were headed for a recession. This one feels like more controlled profit taking. I think the mindset before was a lot of uncertainty mixed with panic, and now it feels more like the market strength is here to stay. I think investors are less worried in general about an upcoming recession, and confidence in the markets is growing. To me this should equate to some healthy market activity of sustained growth and periodic profit taking. I can't support this with any facts and figures besides what I see on the chart and how it makes me feel. I think the market is in an excellent state currently, and I don't see what would give money people cause for panic. I am not a big panic'er in general, however, so that could be something to factor into any bias generation.
CME_MINI:NQM2021
by emehoke
SPY - Called the top at 422, let's see if the retrace continues I called the SPY top at 422. SPXL was hovering above $100 and I thought wow, what a recovery from $30 levels. More than 3x returns? Likely not without retrace! Next few days, we see SPY dropping. Today was the most impressive drop! Might be a good time for yearly investors to "Sell in May, Go Away," if you are happy with your profits or family members need it. It's already been an amazing economic recovery for many. If not, keep holding. Downturns happen, we'll see what kind of teeth this one has.
AMEX:SPY
by Grandmaster76