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Marketsentiment

Dax daily: 15 Jul 2020Yesterday's price action was a great example of the rational behaviour of the market participants. As we mentioned in our analysis yesterday, the zone around 12 592 was important for establishing further price development, with the break outside signifying the continuation in that particular direction. Dax oscillated the entire European session before gaining momentum in the afternoon and we could target our trades to previous day VPOC. That is exactly what happened and Dax closed the day at the fair value with the biggest amount of orders. Important zones Resistance: 12 882 Support: 12 592 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax opened the day with an ascending gap and the first morning impulse attempts to close the gap. Considering the fact we have the resistance of 12 882 in near vicinity, we're now eying a lovely scenario of closing the gap as it correlates with the VPOC of Monday and then targeting the retest of resistance at 12 882 and possibly break higher. There are no fundamental releases scheduled for Dax today, but the optimism on the US stock markets dominates the market sentiment across the board, even despite the negative echoes of the US-China dealings. Consider it's the earning season too. Should the price get above 12 882, there is a lot of space ahead of us to continue our long bias in the short to the mid-term horizon.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LIMITEDHINDUNILVR showcases the onset of the downtrend with the current gap down opening. The stock was in a bullish uptrend followed by a consolidated between a span of two weeks in the 2090-2130 range. The current level (2085-2090) can be termed as both resistance and support because the price is trying to break above it. If price closes above this level as of today, the stock might again go into consolidation. If not, the price can fall to the lower support levels:- SUPPORT LEVEL 1 (2010-2015) SUPPORT LEVEL 2 (1960-1970) If the price falls to these levels, accumulation should be carried out. THANKS P
NSE:HINDUNILVR
by PrateekVerma
Market Overview- Navigate through the unknown BOTTOM territoryMadness cannot even begin to describe what three major indexes went through the past few weeks. Fastest 30% drop ever, followed by equally insane three consecutive days of massive gain last week. It felt like the whole stock market was going through the crypto type of rollercoaster ride! One question remains in every investor's mind... Have we reached the bottom yet? Macro perspective- *QE to infinity with no limits, now includes the municipal and corporate bond in addition to treasury and MBS *1 trillion federal deficit, but the growth was still below 2 percent *2 Trillion relief package that forbids stock buyback and will be enforced with strict oversight *Economic contraction is forecasted to be 15 percent or more in the second quarter *Unemployment is projected to rise to 30 percent in a few months *Q2-Q4 earning will likely be severely impacted In nutshells, the underlying economic condition is already weakened with the crippling amount of national debts. The fact that Fed intends to increase its balance sheet with no limits tells me how desperate Fed is and how dire the economy is. Historical perspective- 11 recessions in the past ended up lasting between 12 to 18 months. Only one of them lasted 2 months. Furthermore, never before has the bottom been reached in the beginning of the recession. Of course, some people believe that this market recession will not last long because unlike the 2008 crisis which was caused by the overheated housing market, this one was caused by the sudden panic sell driven by the external circumstance. Technical perspective- All three major indexes went down around 35% from their Feb. high during this unprecedented crisis, indicating that the market is already in the recession mode. However, Dow has since then bounced back strongly and is currently up around 20% from its low. Technically speaking, the market is not officially in the recession until all three major indexes stay 20% below their highs for at least a month or two. However, It seems that it may not be the case if the current rally continues which will send the Dow back above its 20% drop from the February high and possibly test the resistance lvl at SMA200. Only time will tell. If the market is not at the bottom yet, how much lower can three major indexes go? 50% low from their Feb. high would send three major indexes way blow their 2017 price lvl. If such a scenario plays put, it will send a shockwave throughout the market and exacerbates the already deteriorated investor confidence. I would not pay too much attention to the technical lvl until the VIX goes back down to around 30-40 lvl. During the rare, panic-sell frenzy, anything is possible. We have already witnessed the fastest 30% drop and the biggest 3 day rally in the history so be ready and prepare for anything to happen. Market sentiment- Market sentiment is everything at this point. The impeccable timing of 2 trillion relief bill seemed to have cancelled out the effect of the record high unemployment filing claims last Thursday. Even when U.S infected # exceeded that of china last Friday, the market did not react too drastically. Moreover, Yesterday's announcement of April 30 lockdown extension did nothing but boosting up the market today. Perhaps, the Covid-19 fear is already priced in or the selling pressure is exhausted? Covid-19 progress- The catalyst that summoned up the financial storm will also be the one that ends it. The exponential growth must be stopped before any sense of normalcy can return. By all metrics, growth factor, infected per 1 mil, death per 1 mil, positive %,, # in serious/critical condition, recovery rate, fatality rate all indicate the somber news that the exponential growth is still climbing. Let's take a look at the projection in the website below covid19.healthdata.org Keep in mind that the projection is based on the assumption that most people will follow the social-distancing practice and ventilators will not run out (Ford, GM and Tesla have set out to produce more ventilators). According to the projection, if we don't get the second wave of infection because of the lax lockdown rule or the undetected virus carrier coming from countries that have not yet experienced the outbreak, we should expect everything to return to certain degree of normalcy and economy to begin the recovering process in May. When that happens, investors may not rush back into the stock market in droves, but it could at least serve as the crystal clear sign to investors that the worst part is over.
DJ:DJI
by Libratus
A probable SHORT on DOLLAR-YENPlease read the entire blog post to have a better understanding of what's going on in the USDJPY chart. As I have mentioned earlier in a few of my previous posts(ideas) , that the pair of FX:USDJPY shouldn't break the significant low that's made on 24th Sep 2019 if we want to stay long in the pair. But, what did the USDJPY do? (The charts above show the zoomed-out 4-Hour charts) - It took resistance from both the horizontal resistance (the red-broken line) and the trendline (the blue-broken line). - The price then moved very fast with some big BEAR candles/bars . - And then the price broke the significant low (106.960 JPY). The above three are all the points that I suggested (in my earlier posts) we should keep ourselves away from if we wanted to stay bullish in this pair. *TREND ANALYSIS* - So, the trend in this market is not BULLISH . Its either range-bound or down-trend. We can say that the trend for this market is SIDEWAYS-to-DOWN for two following obvious reasons - 1st - The market broke above the prior significant-high (which proved that the market was no longer in a downtrend and that the market switched to a range-bound trend) and then the price wasn't able to give a new higher high after taking support from that significant-high ("RESISTANCE becoming SUPPORT" and thus forming a significant-low). So, we can't say that the price switched to an up-trend there. 2nd - The price then broke the significant-low which made the pair a bit BEARISH again. The above chart shows the Daily-picture of this chart and what we might expect from it. We should keep in mind that the Decsending-Triangle is not proven unless the Horizontal Support-line is broken . The above chart is just food for thoughts. *SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ANALYSIS* - The price, right now, is at the MA resistance-zone . The above chart shows some other resistance and support trend-lines and horizontal-levels that we should look out for. *CANDLE ANALYSIS* - In the last DOWN-move, the price moved down with pretty big bear bars. In that context, the bull bars that formed in the recent UP-move was not that impressive. So we can expect the market to resume the DOWN-move again . Also, there is that steep slope in the recent UP-move which could suggest that the price is now at an OVERBOUGHT condition . What more I need to be looking for in the candles before I take the short trade? ---------> **Very Important** ------> Conservative Approach The price is making some strong BEAR bars (bars with closes near lows) and some BULL rejection bars (bars with big higher shadows). The above chart shows the pictorial representation of the conservative approach For Aggressive Traders - You can take the trade right now because it's already at a price level where one can decide to short the market. I don't know whether the Conservative approach is correct or the aggressive one. Sometimes the aggressive one is correct, sometimes the conservative approach is the one we should go with, and sometimes both the approaches are proven correct by the market. Both approaches have their pros and cons. I have picked the conservative approach. You should pick your own. (Because Stops are dependent on them and putting stops at the right levels is an important part of this game) *RED FLAGS* - If the price doesn't go down even after the formation of strong bear-bars and starts to take support from the support-zone (represented by green broken-lines on the charts) then we have to look to exit our short trades. We should keep this at the back of our mind and not worry too much about it right now. The best way to "TRADE MANAGEMENT" would be taking trades with 2 lots with appropriate stops above the significant highs @ 108.470 JPY or appropriate ATR stops above the current highs @ 107.600 JPY and targets at- 1. The next Support zone @ 106.000 JPY to 105.500 JPY 2. The 2nd lot to be squared off at the next Resistance levels or it will be left with trailing stops at appropriate levels . This trade can have a reward – risk ratio of 3 or more if we play our cards right. For traders who want to know more about my techniques or have any queries, you can chat with me directly through private chats. I will reply you back as fast as I can. Kindly like this post . Also, please do comment in the comment sections below . And I will love it if you follow me . Thank You! Disclaimer - All the ideas posted on these posts are published in good faith and for general educational purposes only. Satx98 does not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability, and accuracy of this information. Any action, you take upon the ideas posted by me, is strictly at your own risk. I will not be liable for any losses and/or damages in connection with the use of my ideas.
Short
by Satx98
USDJPY - The pair could be looking to go Up now!This is the analysis for 4 Hour Chart of FX:USDJPY *TREND ANALYSIS* - 1) The price of the above-mentioned pair made a significant low on 24th September o'19 which has not been broken yet. So, it can be assumed that the BEARS are still not in control of the market yet. 2) The price is below the MAs , but the short-term MA, represented by the blue curve on the chart, is still above the long-term MA, represented by the orange curve. 3) The BEARs made some huge black candles while the price was coming down from the resistance, represented by the red-broken lines on the chart. 4) Point no. 2 and 3 could mean that the BULLS might not still be in full control of the market yet. This could mean that the price could be in a range-bound market which means our best bet would be " Buy the lows/supports or Sell the highs/resistances ". 5) As we can see in the above figure, the channel trend-lines have been drawn on the chart with blue-dotted lines. This could mean that the price is still showing some bullish signs and the BULLS are in control on a longer-term basis . 6) This chart of USDJPY, on the other hand, shows a resistance trend-line with a blue-dotted line. The most recent resistance that the price took from this trend-line was on 1st October o'19 and the price dropped very fast with huge BEAR candles. The price is now near support again, near the low (106.960 JPY) of 24th September but hasn't broken that low yet. This means that even though the price fell from the resistance trend-line, the BEARS are still failing to break the significant low made on 24th September . This suggests that BULLS, on a short-term basis , can take control of the market at any moment now. *TREND ANALYSIS* Conclusion - The market is in a SIDEWAYS-cum-UP trend . SIDEWAYS on a shorter-term basis and a probable UP trend on a longer-term basis. If the price breaks the resistance shown on the chart with the red-broken line, we can then say for sure that this pair ( FX:USDJPY ) is in an UP-TREND. *SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ANALYSIS* - In this chart, we can clearly see that the price is now at a confluence of both the channel trend-line support and the horizontal support . The MA-Supports are also near the price. So, we can assume that the price is cheap now. *CHART PATTERN AND CANDLE ANALYSIS* - 1) The price could be trying to make a Double-Bottom right now. Plus the price fell to the Support Zone with a Steep slope which could mean that the price is now OVERSOLD . This increases the chances of the market rising from here. 2) The bear-bars are big and there are still no signs of strong bull-bars . Plus there are still no indecision-candles . Candlesticks are the way to gauge the short-term momentum of the price. Indecision-candles tell us that a short-term trend might be losing its steam . So, we can say from this, that the price is still not showing any signs of stopping its down move (on a short-term basis). *CHART PATTERN AND CANDLE ANALYSIS* Conclusion - The price of FX:USDJPY might be at a support-zone but there are still no candle-signals that could potentially trigger a trade. Trade Triggers : ****Important 1. The price of USDJPY is already at a point where one can go long right now. ----> Aggressive approach 2. But there is a saying that goes like "Prevention is better than cure." So, I, being a conservative trader , would suggest that we should wait for the market to retest the low that will be made eventually. I would like to see the price failing to make a new low after that which would further prove my theory that the market is not willing to go down and that would trigger my long trade . PLUS , I will like to see the market making some big bull-bars and rejection of the lower prices with big shadows which would further suggest that the bulls might be trying to take control of the market again (on a short-term basis). I will also like to see the price going over the MAs and then taking support from those MAs to go long. I don't know which one of the above-mentioned approaches is correct. Sometimes the aggressive one is correct, sometimes the conservative approach is the one we should go with, and sometimes both the approaches are proven correct by the market. Both approaches have their pros and cons. *RED FLAGS* The only warning is breaking of the significant-low, i.e., 106.960 JPY, made on 24th September. This will then break my formations (market-context) and I won't take a long-trade then. I will then wait for some more price-action to decide what are the steps that I should take. The best way to "TRADE MANAGEMENT" would be taking trades with 2 lots with appropriate stops below the significant low @ 106.960 JPY and targets at- 1. 18th September high at 108.450 or 108.5 represented by the broken red line. 2. The 2nd lot to be squared off at the next Resistance levels at 109.000 or it will be left with trailing stops at appropriate levels . This trade can have a reward – risk ratio of 3 or more if the cards are played right. For traders who want to know more about my techniques or have any queries, you can chat with me directly through private chats. I will reply you back as fast as I can. Kindly like this post . Also, please do comment in the comment sections below . And I will love it if you follow me . Thank You! Disclaimer - All the ideas posted on these posts are published in good faith and for general educational purposes only. Satx98 does not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability, and accuracy of this information. Any action you take upon the ideas posted by me is strictly at your own risk. I will not be liable for any losses and/or damages in connection with the use of my ideas.
Long
by Satx98
$LTC >> Tomorrow halving event. Bullish or bearish?Hi everyone, Welcome to an update on Litecoin. Litecoin looks bullish to me, even after having corrected 47% from the June 2019 highs. My main argument in this idea is that Litecoin will continue to be bullish after the halving event (tomorrow) because everyone is looked at history and thinking that Litecoin usually crashes after the event, "buy the rumor, sell the news" type thing. I don't think this will be the case this year. As a contrarian, I believe the market makers will do just the opposite of that. Litecoin will probably continue to surge and break its recent highs this month, especially if Bitcoin continues its trajectory to $13k. What's also very interesting is that people are not talking about it; Litecoin tweets and posts on social media have significantly reduced since June. That's another contrarian market sentiment indicator, leading me to believe that LTC is preparing for a rip to the upside. Technically, in the short term, $LTC is in a bullish ascending triangle with a healthy upward trending RSI and MACD... It's also maintaining the 2019 trend line support! Hope you enjoyed - if you find this valuable, please leave a like as this helps to develop our channel and audience. Cheers, Leb Crypto
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by Leb_Crypto
2
Bitcoin-Bulls Are Unstoppable! Insane Bullish Market Sentiment!I gave you a warning in my last update, and I hope you didn't get trapped like many people did. We have seen first Longs and then Shorts getting killed. The BTC-Market is extremely difficult around 8,000 USD because of super high juicy liquidity pool, which whales are trying to take advantage of by Stop Hunting. We cannot ignore this - We gotta go with the Bulls again, and WE WILL GO ONE WAVE HIGHER even though more Shorts are coming back. As I told you before -its just bait for the Whalees. We have witnessed extreme Bullish Market Sentiment in the global Market. BTC-dominance has fallen 2.1%(!!). And even though the Bitcoin structure has been looking quite bearish for a long time, and a potential Head And Shoulder Formation was forming, Bulls kept buying up. So as you can see from my drawing the right shoulder has never really formed, and instead we have an ascending bullish triangle. So this is just a matter of time before we will go at least 8,400 USD! D4 Please give a LIKE!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by D4rkEnergY
12