Marketstructure
AUDCHF ShortReason:
Liquidity grab
Break of structure
FVG (imbalance)
1 Fundamentally CHF is stronger than the AUD
2. COT Data showed me that over the past week CHF has been bought by smart money and the AUD been sold
3. Retail sentiment are majority long on this pair
Keep in note that price might drop further so if that happens adjust your fibonacci retracement tool. this is just an idea
The importance of trading with the trend + Suppy/Demand zonesA trend can be defined with price action or indicators. Understanding that all indicators lag and price behaviour is key I prefer price action to tell me if we are up trending, down trending or trading in a range. Before understanding the basics of market structure it is important to know that its more likely for a trend to keep going on than for the trend to reverse. That is why professional traders look for areas to jump on the trend not areas to go against it. Also, keep in mind what time frame are you using to define the trend, for example, if your trades don't last more than an hour would you jump on the weekly chart trend ? what happens in 1 hour won't affect the weekly chart. So if you are trading the 5 or 15 min chart you can trade with the trend of the 1 or 2 hour chart.
How to define the trend ?
• An up trend is when price is making higher highs and higher lows
• A down trend is when price is making lower highs and lower lows.
• If there is no way to define the trend then you can say it is in a trading range with no clear
direction.
When has the trend changed ?
To explain a trend change we will consider the chart below. First we can notice a clear up trend making higher highs and higher lows (1,2,3) then we create a new lower low (4) where we break below previous higher low (2) then price fails to create a new higher high and instead creates a lower high (5), finally when price breaches the previous lower low at (6) we can consider a change of structure. opposite situation happens in a down trend market.
ABCD CORRECTION PATTERN
There is a very common pattern that pretends to be a change of structure but really it is just a correction pattern to continue the uptrend. Look at the example below. An up trend creates a higher high (A) and a higher low (B). Then creates a lower high (C) and finally a lower low (D) before continuing its up trend.
What did not happen that the trend didn't change ?
If the high after (C) had been also a lower high and then it breaks below (D) and (D) acts further as resistance then the trend had changed.
What is more important here is to understand that trading a continuation of the trend has a higher probability of working, on the example shown the correction ended right at a 4hr demand zone that was valid because the trend was still skewed to the upside.
High positive correlation between gold price and gold stockAs it can be seen in the chart we have a high positive correlation between gold prices and Barrick Gold Corporation as they move together.
Previously as stock prices formed a new high gold price failed to do so and this represents a bearish divergence between prices and caused stock price to move lower sharply while gold price remained roughly around the prices it was.
Now as Gold stock price creates a new low and broke bullish structure to the downside we could expect gold spot price to follow the move and also break the structure to the downside.
EURUSD: Possible bullish moveEURUSD: here on this pair I see a possible bullish move. 4H candle swept liquidity and could not close below the major 4H swing low so we could trade after breaking the internal swing high in 1H which is the same as 4H and also swing high in 15min chart. So we need a candle close above the shown level and after that we need a liquidity zone in order to be able to buy at the highlighted zone.
Thanks
BTC Eyes up 40K level With multiple rejections of this level I can see price targeting the 40k level. That level IMO will give better idea to the price of BTC and or its next move. Im still on the fence cause i still see the 32 level . There is alot of data fling around this week so take that into consideration as well.
if you agree please throw me and boost ideas and comments welcomed
ENVX.... Looking bullish This is my next trade im looking to get into. Price has tested this level and everytime we get a nice action. On the higher time frames you can see the nice retest of the order block and a possible "W" formation for the win. MACD signaling buy and RSI coming out of the dirt is giving nice confluence I have a 30$ price target
Please boost if you support this idea and feel free to comment like and follow
JK TYRE - Cup & Handle Breakout Cup & Handle pattern breakout done in JK TYRE
Please kindly wait for Retesting the level 205
You just keep an eye on this stock
I will update instantly about this stock
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HAPPY TRADING GUYS
GBPAUD: GET READY TO SHORT!We got a confirmed bearish trend change for GC (2 LL and 2 LH is what I look for to ensure I do not fall for the trap of a fake trend change!)
Now looking for trend continuation to take a short trade.
Waiting for at least a 50% retracement and price coming into the fair value gap (this is a must for my system!)- then we look for a market structure shift on 15min and ATTACK!
The 50% retracement and is also in line with the breaker block.
This is looking like a very yummy short!
Follow and Stay tuned my friends ;)
Crude oil 4H Symetrical triangle, breakout of a down channelOn this 4H chart for Crude oil you can notice that the price has been moving in a very obvious down trend channel for a while. Recently the price broke out of it and started consolidating above the down tren resistance ( now a support ). In the proces the price formed a symetrical triangle. It is important to observe this triangle in the following hours as it can provide a breakout.
Usually, when having a symetriacal triangle, it's better for the pattern to break in the direction of the movement that lead into it. If you observe the first green line, you will notice that this was an increase. If the pattern produces a Buy entry, this will also align with the breakout from this down trend channel.
If the price starts increasing, it can encounter the first resistance around 75.80 - 76, this is the current major high point. If the price manages to surpass it, this will create a new bullish market structure and it can set the for a new bullish trend.
The price can also correct from it. If it does, it can retrace to around 73 - 74 before getting the chance to bounce to the up side again.
The development in the following days will be important not only for this setup, but possibly for the next 2 - 3 weeks. If the price breaks above the 76, the new bullish market structure can send it on an up trend. If the price breaks bellow the triangle and it goes back in the channel, then it can continue on a down trend.
EURJPY - READY FOR THE BULL TO CONTINUE?!EJ has some amazing bullish momentum behind it- and I am looking to continue to ride this trend and long it!
I am waiting for at least a 50% retracement and price coming into the daily fair value gap (this is a must for my system!)- then we look for market structure shift on the hourly and attack!
This is looking like a very yummy LONG!
Follow and Stay tuned my friends ;)
USDJPY: LONG LONG LONG ALL DAYUJ has some amazing bullish momentum behind it- and I am looking to continue to ride this trend and long it!
I am waiting for at least a 50% retracement and price coming into the daily fair value gap (this is a must for my system!)- then we look for market structure shift on the hourly and attack!
This is looking like a very yummy LONG!
Follow and Stay tuned my friends ;)
BTC - the halving is coming upG'day,
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily)
Orange = Daily
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Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed.
Link to the log model back in 2022 is still strongly in play.
Weekly chart
Daily timeframe
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Focus on investing for long term positional moves
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXIV
EURUSD: GET READY TO SHORT SOON!:DWe got a confirmed bearish trend for EU on 4H. MASSIVE BEARISH MOMENTUM
Now looking for trend continuation to take a short trade.
Waiting for at least a 50% retracement and price coming into the daily fair value gap (this is a must for my system!)- then we look for a market structure shift on the hourly and attack!
This is looking like a very yummy short!
Follow and Stay tuned my friends ;)
AudCad changing trend soon.Looking for Impulse Down.
AudCad will start to move down soon. AudCad cleared stops and made a displacement to move down. Make sure you have your own rules on RR and follow them. This is just a trading idea to help you gain better knowledge. If you have any question ask me in comments.
Learn & Earn!
Wave Trader Pro
BTC - Generational Bottom IdeaOk, maxis can start making fun of it because 10k is shown on the chart, but I'm a trader and I trade probabilities. Even if the idea is correct, it won't get there straight and it won't get there in one month.
We have three untapped yearly vwaps since 2016, both identified on the chart. I think the first one (at 28k) will come between march and july.
The second one is at 1:1 extension of the ATH-15k-48k move, as well as TR pocket - which gave me to the dollar low entries across all markets. It's extension aligns with 1.272 of ATH-15k-48k move, which gives us 7800-7055 area.
Invalidation if this idea is above 125k so it doesn't really make sense in that regard, but a 2W close above 56k or a new ATH without a HTF bear divs will make it a very low probability.
I'll share a lower time frame idea for long trades, but the areas I'm looking at right now is 38-35, 32-27, 20-16.