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GBPJPY WEEKLY UPDATE 24/2 - 3/3Hi all Weekly recaps: The price of the GBPJPY has reached the 50% fibonacci level from the previous high of 172.129 and low of 155.350 following a breakout consolidation level (please see earlier post). GBP/JPY needs to hold above 161.802 until this week's market close in order to continue its upward movement. So, I expect that price will end the breakout pullback and begin a long position with 164.xx as the target. Let me know what you think In the comments! My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading skills. Thanks a lot for your support.
Long
by mytw0cents
2
BTC and the key level of 25,200. How to make money?Hello, everyone! Today we’re going to break down two things: the probable key level for BTC this year, 25,200, and what you can expect from the market in general if you have a medium or long term strategy. A short story to begin The 25,200 level was formed in early August 2022, when everyone stopped talking about the bankruptcies of 3AC, Celsius and several other companies. You could consider the 25,200 level a fair price for a neutral market in the current world economic realities. Then we had a fall due to the aggravation of relations between China and Taiwan, a small increase due to the Ethereum Merge in September and the FTX/Alameda crisis, panic sellings and general apathy. From this moment the set of positions began. It lasted almost 2 months until January 9, 2023. Then a local bullish run to 25,200 began, with one stop at 20,000-21,000. And now we hit the 25,200 level again and no one knows what will happen next THE MAIN PART 1. All of the collapses and bankruptcies of 2022 were a surprise to all players. Each new crash was a great surprise and forced all participants to actively rebalance their positions. The example is Jump Trading and its fiat balance that was ~50% at the time of the FTX crash, even though the normal fiat rate since the Terra/Luna crash was ~30%. In other words, even the biggest players were influenced by the market and depended on the situation. 2. There is every reason to believe that it was the big players who were the main contributors to the November-January position set. After the FTX collapse, the market reached the peak of fear, the only thing that could push the market down even more at that moment was Binance/Coinbase fall, or crypto ban in the USA. Considering how quickly Binance worked and how actively Coinbase was in the process of personnel reorganization, the probability of their fall was extremely low. Also, all regulators mostly blamed SBF and executive team FTX/Alameda; there were no ideas to ban crypto in the rhetoric of regulators. Spoiler: it was introduced later and partially in the form of a stacking ban for US users so the companies would not be cheeky and would think about what they were doing. In general, the risks and probability of a bigger crisis were very low and the big teams understood it very well, that is why they started to set positions. 3. Logically, it will be clear that the level of 25,200 is most likely the most favorable level for the large participants – the beneficiaries of the fall. The price near the level of 25,200 allows you to easily sell those positions that were not sold after the collapse of 3AC/Celsius and the fall of FTX. Which in turn will take some time. After that it is only left to figure out what to do with the bad positions from the time of the Terra/Luna fall, to correct the balance of assets and build a smooth strategy for the future. OUR BETS The 25,200 level is completely artificial and created to sell over margin longs from 16,000 - 17,000 and sell problematic positions from the 3AC/FTX times. After selling positions at the current level, the market will go down to 20,000 - 21,700. After that, within 3-4 months, we will get to 30,000 - 32,000. We should expect some interesting price movements, namely long/short squeezes. The big players have learned to work with the risk of bankruptcy and the risk of regulators' influence: Genesis and the SEC bans are the best examples of that. Besides, there are very few of these risks left and a skilled team of analysts will be able to keep track of them and come up with strategies to work on them. Asian liquidity will be a growth driver. Share with us your forecasts on BTC and tell us what topics you want to be analyzed by our team , and we will write about it. Don't forget to check our links below and check our trading pairs. Thanks for reading!
by Samura0x
41
XAU/USD (GOLD) BULLISH OUTLOOKOANDA:XAUUSD HI , TRADER'S , GOLD IS TRADING WITHIN FALLING WEDGE PATTERN Falling wedge is bearish reversal pattern means price can reverse and go up From last 3 week's Gold is bearish pressure , RSI AND STOCH NEAR OVERSOLD AREA It indicate's that reversal in very near , 2 scenario's mentioned if GOLD breakout upper wedge now than it can go upto 1832 area if gold fall from current resistance than one more leg down to 1801 area and than back up again Plan to buy dip's ❤️ Please, support my work with follow ,share and like, thank you !❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by INVESTRONE
The Bubble Obituary The Fundamentals - Many investor favorites in the late 1960s & early 1970s were companies such as IBM, Xerox, and Disney which enjoyed PEs of over 35 in the nifty fifty bubble. In this latest stock market bubble, there were dozens of mid & large cap companies trading at over 10x revenues. Many unprofitable businesses even garnered over 6x Price/Sales ratios at the peak in 2021! The US stock market is extremely overvalued relative to historical valuation averages. Conservative earnings expectations for 2023 would place earnings dropping 10%-20% this year, in-line with mild recessions. The problem with mild forecasts is that the current recession gives no indication that it will be mild. GAAP Earnings for Q4 2022, excluding energy, are down over 8% YoY with companies issuing even gloomier forecasts for 2023. Earnings are likely to fall at least 33% from peak to trough using an average of the last 4 US recessions. - The subprime auto bubble is popping, with dealerships and lenders heavily exposed to subprime loans beginning to default. American Car Center, a subprime lender and auto dealer, recently closed its doors, highlighting the mounting pressures the industry faces. More defaults and business closures should be expected as interest rates stay high, vehicles fall in price, and car loan deliquinces rise. Subprime auto loan delinquencies are extremely high relative to their historical average even before unemployment has began rising precipitously. - Layoffs have spread to every sector of the economy, as evidenced by 2022 Q4 conference calls. The decrease in consumer spending globally is leading to lower exports and imports globally. High interest rates are decreasing business activity and profit margins are falling due to inflation & weakening productivity. The business cycle has turned and every sector of the economy is entering cost-cutting mode. These are all reasons for layoffs continuing in increasing volumes throughout 2023. - The US housing bubble is imploding. Sales volumes have declined over 35% from the peak. Mortgage purchase applications are the lowest they’ve been in over 25 years. Using data going back to 1952 from the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment surveys indicate that this is one of the worst times ever to buy a home. Home price declines are occurring nationwide. High office vacancy rates & high interest rates are leading to large bankruptcies in the commercial property market as well. This is already very acute in the mall segment of the commercial property sector. - The FED has been raising interest rates within an economic contraction which has historically always magnified economic downturns. The FED typically tries to raise interest rates in the early - middle stages of economic expansion, pause their hikes as the economic cycle matures, and begin cutting rates when the economy begins declining. In this latest hiking cycle, the FED waited until the economy began contracting before quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes even began! - America has one of the highest Private & Public Debt to GDP ratios in US History. The only other similar levels of debt in American History in the past hundred years were in the late 1920s & late 2000s. The economic contractions that followed were especially severe because of the high levels of malinvestment and debt which were deleveraged in those contractions. The level of malinvestment engendered by the FED’s suppression of interest rates in the 2009-2022 business cycle created one of the largest credit bubbles in history. Over 22% of the Russell 2000 are unprofitable and over 20% of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Many of the IPOs since 2017 (and especially since 2020) were/are unprofitable and are beginning to run into funding issues. This economic contraction is likely to eventually be classified as depression due to the continued declines in business activity and living standards for years. The Technicals & Correlations - Healthcare, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have all underperformed since December 2022. Inflows and buying from large money seems to have mostly dried up and retail investor inflows, short covering, and call buying are making up a much larger portion of the market than is typical. This led to a bounce back rally in Financials, Technology, Real Estate, and consumer discretionary stocks which also began topping out in late January. In late February 2023, all sectors of the market have topped out, show falling underlying momentum, and are trading at very weak volumes. This is a similar pattern that played out prior to the march 2020 crash, where many Industrials, Staples, Healthcare, and Utility stocks peaked out prior to January 18th, 2020; whereas many overvalued & unprofitable stocks didn’t peak until February 21, 2020. - Stock markets globally have peaked and are in the process of finishing their topping formations. Topping patterns began showing up as early as November / December 2022. Downside momentum is picking up now that interest rates globally are also beginning to breakout. The positive correlation between bonds and stocks has continued to remain strong since late 2021. - Commodities peaked in the first half of 2022 as price inflation continued rising and economic activity was still high. Commodities enjoyed a large bounce in Fall 2022 as financial conditions eased due to the bear market rally in stock & bond prices. Commodities have been exceptionally weak thus far in 2023, which is another negative signal for stock markets & business activity globally. - The bankruptcies of FTX & the Genesis lending desk, as well as increasing regulatory oversight, have continued to pressure crypto. With interest rates moving higher and the economy falling further, the speculative bubble that is crypto will collapse, likely back to being under 100B market cap for the total market with many altcoins going to zero and bitcoin dropping below 10K. Crypto has been a leading indicator for the market ever since their correlation began tightening in late 2020. The confirmed false breakouts and breakdowns all over the crypto sector are a negative forward signal for the stock market. - Total margin debt outstanding is still at an extremely elevated level. In real terms, margin debts outstanding are at comparable levels prior to the October 2008 crash & March 2020 crash. Insider selling is at the highest point that it has been in the entire bear market. The US dollar index’s negative correlation to the stock market was strong in 2021 but it became very pronounced in 2022. The US dollar’s rise against almost every other currency around the world since February 2nd is yet another negative leading signal to stocks. -Alexander Lambert I study over 30 countries’ markets and economic data releases. I also track the daily movements of over 750 companies and 15 different sector indexes. I have spent a tremendous amount of time on historical & economic research, as well as technical and fundamental analysis. I have been doing this for over 3 years and I generally spend between 65-80 hours a week on my work. Thank you for reading!
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
32
USD/CHF BUY NOW 140 PIPS!!!After months of downward trend we seen price has approached a critical POC level at which its showing signs for a reversal, The most easy to identify structure is that of H4 and we see a nice Double bottom with a nice double bottom retracement to collect liquidity to push price high , and we saw price creating a high high(HH) So this is a sign for a shift of momentum So now price is still trying to find support around the 61.8 % fib which is also an area of high bullish volume, so its key to watch what happens here, wait for a nice confirmation before entering a trade Good-luck and Follow me
Long
by ShinForex1
2
Day Trade: ShortKing W. Harbmayg's Journal Entry #5 1. Review: I’m going with the trend. I have a proclivity to counter trend, sometimes without even knowing it. I’ve endured a series of losers of small losses in the past few days due to my lack of awareness of market structure. I have some bad habits that I am still rooting out. Here forth, I aim to be 'perfect' my ability to read market structure and to consciously take more trend trades which are to be held. Also my stop losses were not placed at the above all highs and under all lows and so this too led to me being stopped out before my TP was reached. 2. Performance: (1 out of 5) Confidence— 5 Discipline— 4 Communication— 5
Short
by Harbmayg
OIL(USoil ) massive sell off incoming 430 PipsWe clearly see a nice daily downward trend and price still respecting the lower high level which is also in confluence with EMA pointing downward, showing still continuation As we move down to lower timeframe like H4 and H1 we see price breaking structure to downside and current price is testing it as resistance also it respecting the 50% fib level we could see a fake-out to grab liquidity to downside, so wait for a nice reversal candlestick and bearish volume Follow me for more breakdown like this
OShort
by ShinForex1
6