USD/JPY Profit Target achieved 300pipsBasically this was a wonderful trade cause it was easy to identify, i will break down as follows:
So we had a nice continuation to downside until we saw huge bullish volume pushing price high cause of the positive CPI which indicate likelihood of interest rate high. So with the volume and break of neckline of the structure we see a nice indication of change of trend as show below
After breaking structure we saw price retrace to fib level 50% level which respect the triple bottom support and spike of huge bullish momentum this gave a clear indication of new highs so we waited for price to retrace to the neckline and entry for a buy to next liquidity level which is close to -0.27%
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Marketstructure
US30 Sell setup 500 PipsBased on the H4 timeframe we seeing price action indicating a shift of momentum to downside as we break the H4 high low, currently the price has retraced to 50% fib level in both H4 and H1
This is also in confluence with other indicator like EMA cross over to downside and also supporting the previous support now got reject has resistance
Nice risk to reward
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US30 Price Action and Weekly Market Structure - Short ObservedObserving US30 on the weekly chart we can see the bigger picture. In the chart we can see that price has been in an overall downtrend since leaving the top level marked. Price is currently indecisive at our most recent lower low/supply zone. Although we have been bouncing around going in no particular direction, we still see signs of rejection to the upside.
Considering we are in an overall downtrend, currently rejecting to break the previous lower low, several major bearish rejections, a few pinbars, I will be holding a short position to the next major level.
BTC Detailed Top-Down Analysis - Day 135Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard Nasr, also known as theSignalyst.
I truly appreciate your continuous support everyone!
Let me know if you like the series, and if you would like me to change or add anything.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
EUR/JPY BUY SETUP 250 PIPSAs we look a price action we see price action is respecting the weekly and daily support level, as we break down on lower timeframe H4 show price forming double bottom and breaking the neckline in both H4 and H1
So we have a nice entry after the candlestick retest the neckline and showing momentum to upside,
Nice risk to reward
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NZD/CHF SELL SETUP !!!Basically when you look at price action we see price is consolidation on the Daily timeframe support level, Despite weakness on volume , structure in lower timeframe like H4 and H1 stills show market structure to downside.
So basically we have two areas for look for a rejection one @ the 31.8% fib level which is in confluence with previous support now resistance
Rejection two @ 61.8% fib level which is potential maximum point to grab liquidity to break down the daily support
Nice risk to reward
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Continue, Pullback or Markdown PhaseI feel that TSLA is in or heading into correction. $214 pullback, continue or correction. Original Thesis was $234-$238 Correction zone with Pullbacks and gap fills before big Correction.
This would also be a great BullTrap so that Wall-street can bank on the $200 Call Options this week.
*TSLA is STRONG, The Markets have been Rallying but there are Warning signs that we are in or going into correction.
Bullish Thesis Continuation idea: this is a set-up for impulse move to $223, pullback then or continue to then $238 & gap fill with big sell-off
Lots of TSLA Events coming up which is bullish for next couple of weeks
*Pullback/Correction Idea:
Measured Moves: Extension and Retracements are matching. Extension: 2 Retracement 0.618
Date Range from capitulation event to now are equally measured.
If $215 is broken then TSLA can continue to $223 for wave 5 and correct (Bullish Final Move Idea: this is pullback for pop to $223 and pullback)
If TSLA stops here and the Markets Correct then this could be the set-up for Pullback or Correction. (possible sideways trading for next 2 weeks)
*Daily Volume is showing only Buying - Small Time frame is showing Steady Selling and Impulsive Buying with Automatic sell-off. These are signs of Wyckoff Distribution Phase. *** Pullbacks being bought up are Strong Bullish signs* but TSLA Price has Moved up only 6% in 10 days...on large volume, so distribution is happening, amount of effort to move price is becoming harder to maintain price markup...but is it in correction mode yet is the question.
TSLA can still go higher to extend Impulsive wave 5* currently Wave 3 and 5 are of equal distance which could represent end of Markup. note:I am not an Elliot Wave Expert*
Bearish Sentiment:
Greed is strong
*Seasonality- Markets tend to Drop off Mid February
Vix above 20
us 2y, us10y, dxy,vix all breaking out.
Divergence of NYSE ADV/DEC
Current Sentiment: Bearish* Drop here or possible Upthrust to $223 with Hard-sell below $200
Let me know what you think
📍 The 5 Step Process1️⃣ MARKET STRUCTURE
The market structure has a significant impact on the formation of prices, dissemination of information, and execution of transactions. In the context of stock trading, market structure can also refer to the pattern of price movements in a downtrend, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. This pattern indicates that prices are consistently decreasing over time and that selling pressure is outweighing buying pressure. The market structure in a downtrend can provide important information to traders and investors about the overall sentiment in the market and can inform their decision-making process.
2️⃣ PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL
A psychological price level in trading refers to a price point that is believed to have a significant impact on market participants' behavior and decision making. These price levels are usually round numbers, such as $50 or $100, or important milestones, such as all-time highs or lows, and are often used as reference points in trading. Market participants often view psychological price levels as significant barriers that need to be breached or defended in order to signal a change in market sentiment.
3️⃣ FIBONACCI
Fibonacci retracement is a technical analysis tool used in stock trading to identify potential levels of support and resistance. It is based on the idea that prices will tend to retrace a predictable portion of a move, after which they will continue to move in the original direction. The tool is used by drawing a trendline between two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.
4️⃣ TRENDLINE
A trendline in trading is a straight line drawn on a price chart to identify a current trend in the market. The trendline is drawn by connecting two or more price points and is used to identify the direction of the trend, either up, down, or sideways. If the trendline is sloping upwards, it is considered an uptrend, and if it is sloping downwards, it is considered a downtrend.
5️⃣ CANDLESTICK
A twizzer bottom is formed when a long green candle is followed by a red candle that closes below the midpoint of the first candle. This pattern indicates that the buying pressure that was present in the first candle is being replaced by selling pressure, and suggests a potential reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. It's important to note that a twizzer candlestick pattern is just one piece of information and should not be relied upon solely when making trading decisions. It is often used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and indicators to form a more comprehensive view of market conditions.
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BTC/USDT RANGE PLAY HTF #BTC #CRYPTOCurrent upside and downside levels to watch:
Upside:
- In order to see more upside, BTC must hold $21485
- Looking for some strong buying pressure to push back up to range highs
- Possible re-test of S/R levels
Downside:
- Lose $21485 and I see BTC dropping hard down below $20k
- Possible test of 50 & 200 emas. Will these act as support?
BTC is still moving within the same range it has for the past few months and I see no signs of it breaking.
GBPJPY 4HR Weekly Projection - Which way will we Breakout?!Hey guys,
GJ is still consolidating and is just accumulating liquidity right now. It is creating some sort of 'Flag', but as you can see, its also consistently hitting each fib as its creating the Higher Lows in that 'flag'.
All it is doing now is just enticing everyone to take either buys or sells before it breaks out.
The 2 options plotted are just my 2 main projections for the time being, and if it doesn't react that way I will OfCourse, readjust and reanalyze my views because remember - we are not fortune tellers, we just react TO price action and not predict it :)
Option 1 - Price may come up and remove all bearish liquidity from all the Support and Resistance Traders that have sold from there (nothing wrong with that) and also fill that imbalance in price. Don't forget that the Overall Higher Timeframe Fib is there so it will hit that too. There is so many confluences for price to fulfill if it breaks out bullish, but also don't forget, it doesn't NEED to do that straight away it can breakout bearish and then come back for the fib, imbalance and liquidity later on.
Option 2 - If price breaks out bearish it will remove all the buyers who bought at the fibs and the prior lows.
I personally think that the most efficient and cost-effective route for price to take is to go bullish and THEN drop. But again, I can't make that decision because as we know - the market can and will do what it wants, all we can do is project our analysis and try to put ourselves in the best position possible for the outcome.
And most importantly, don't worry if you are wrong or you are not comfortable enough to take a trade.
If you are not 110% confident in your analysis and trade - DO NOT take it.
Don't worry about FOMO, don't worry about 'What if price goes without me ' or 'What if it hits my TP without me?' Who cares!?
Once you can shake these thoughts and feelings, you will truly see a drastic improvement in your trading consistency.
The MOST important thing is your confidence and protecting your capital. :)
NZDUSD ELLIOT WAVE BREAKDOWN [FINAL DROP]Currently, Wave 2 is almost coming to a completion and it conatains three waves (ABC corrective wave) but by the look of the whole structure, it happens it be a flat correction. Wave C which carries 5 waves (12345 waves) is at its last wave also which is the fifth final wave. WIll be looking for buying opportunities when is see some rejections off the end of the last fifth wave at 0.61900 price level.
How To Have An Edge Over The Markets 📚Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
Today I want to share a basic trading plan that you can follow to quantify your trading edge.
📌 Step 1:
First, start from the higher timeframes like Daily/Weekly to identify the current long-term trend. is it bullish, bearish or stuck inside a range?
If the price is sitting in the middle of nowhere, then it is a NO trade zone as price has 50% change to go either up or down. Thus no edge!
📚 Wait for the price to approach the lower bound or upper bound. Then proceed to Step 2
📌 Step 2:
No matter how strong a horizontal / non-horizontal support or resistance is, it can still be broken. Thus don't buy/sell blindly as price approaches a support/resistance.
Instead, zoom in to lower timeframes like H1 and M30 to look for setups.
🏹A basic approach would be to wait for a swing low to be broken downward around a resistance as a signal that the bears are taking over.
In parallel, wait for a swing high to be broken upward around a suppor t for the bulls to take over.
This would be the confirmation to enter the trade.
Of course, your second edge would be through risk management by targeting at least double than your indented risk.
But that's a topic for another post 😉
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Hope you find the content of this post useful 🙏
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
See FAILURE DIFFRENT!!Hey God bless you guys! i wanted to come and talk about failure in this i broke down why its important to have important goals whenever you trade and not only focus on the money and its important to switch your mind to see failure as a growing moment not a quitting moment i know this video is going to bless you i hope you enjoy it and you take notes!!
NZDCHF I Local short from resistance zone Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**NZDCHF Analysis - Listen to video!
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