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GBPJPY 4HR Weekly Projection - Which way will we Breakout?!Hey guys, GJ is still consolidating and is just accumulating liquidity right now. It is creating some sort of 'Flag', but as you can see, its also consistently hitting each fib as its creating the Higher Lows in that 'flag'. All it is doing now is just enticing everyone to take either buys or sells before it breaks out. The 2 options plotted are just my 2 main projections for the time being, and if it doesn't react that way I will OfCourse, readjust and reanalyze my views because remember - we are not fortune tellers, we just react TO price action and not predict it :) Option 1 - Price may come up and remove all bearish liquidity from all the Support and Resistance Traders that have sold from there (nothing wrong with that) and also fill that imbalance in price. Don't forget that the Overall Higher Timeframe Fib is there so it will hit that too. There is so many confluences for price to fulfill if it breaks out bullish, but also don't forget, it doesn't NEED to do that straight away it can breakout bearish and then come back for the fib, imbalance and liquidity later on. Option 2 - If price breaks out bearish it will remove all the buyers who bought at the fibs and the prior lows. I personally think that the most efficient and cost-effective route for price to take is to go bullish and THEN drop. But again, I can't make that decision because as we know - the market can and will do what it wants, all we can do is project our analysis and try to put ourselves in the best position possible for the outcome. And most importantly, don't worry if you are wrong or you are not comfortable enough to take a trade. If you are not 110% confident in your analysis and trade - DO NOT take it. Don't worry about FOMO, don't worry about 'What if price goes without me ' or 'What if it hits my TP without me?' Who cares!? Once you can shake these thoughts and feelings, you will truly see a drastic improvement in your trading consistency. The MOST important thing is your confidence and protecting your capital. :)
by Pmilanoxx_
How To Have An Edge Over The Markets 📚Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. Today I want to share a basic trading plan that you can follow to quantify your trading edge. 📌 Step 1: First, start from the higher timeframes like Daily/Weekly to identify the current long-term trend. is it bullish, bearish or stuck inside a range? If the price is sitting in the middle of nowhere, then it is a NO trade zone as price has 50% change to go either up or down. Thus no edge! 📚 Wait for the price to approach the lower bound or upper bound. Then proceed to Step 2 📌 Step 2: No matter how strong a horizontal / non-horizontal support or resistance is, it can still be broken. Thus don't buy/sell blindly as price approaches a support/resistance. Instead, zoom in to lower timeframes like H1 and M30 to look for setups. 🏹A basic approach would be to wait for a swing low to be broken downward around a resistance as a signal that the bears are taking over. In parallel, wait for a swing high to be broken upward around a suppor t for the bulls to take over. This would be the confirmation to enter the trade. Of course, your second edge would be through risk management by targeting at least double than your indented risk. But that's a topic for another post 😉 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Hope you find the content of this post useful 🙏 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Education
by TheSignalyst
41
NZDCHF I Local short from resistance zone Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **NZDCHF Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
14
EUR/CAD: pull back with hopes by technical analysisEuro/Canadian Dollar may to forming a possible bullish setup that we can to benefit for this short movement in long position. At the moment, there're some signal like RSI that form a bullish divergence forming a lower high, but there're not any signal in price action to entry in against the movement bearish when lead to bullish movement. For the moment, I will hope the confirmation of bullish pattern there. By the contrary, will be that EUR/CAD lead to $1.4410 CAD depending the type of price action we see, it's important to study it the behaviour. As 1.4410 work like resistance to short. Now, in H4 timeframe I'm looking a long position based the points that I have mark there. So guys, I hope that this analysis support you!!!
Long
by harisonhbn9718
8
GBPJPY 4 HR - Using Liquidity to Analyze & Plan for the week.Hey guys, This is my update for GJ for the next week or so. There are so many things that can happen from here, because as we know, the market is never straightforward. These are just a few of my projections and i will slowly eliminate options and adjust my analysis as the week goes by and we start to see changes in both market conditions and price action. I would need to see confirmations at my points of interests (not shown) for me to actually take a trade. But basically, we are still stuck in a consolidation, and we need to wait for price to remove liquidity at either the highs or lows so we can start seeing what price wants to do. Right now, we are sitting in a bullish Fib to go higher, but I am not sure if it is a reversal fib or a retracement fib to go lower. I will definitely need more confirmation. Basically - the way I see the market is that Liquidity, runs everything. Thats why there are so many manipulations and patterns etc. Price will remove buyers or sellers THEN continue in its desired direction. It needs to shake off all the people riding it before continuing and this is why I always say, 'If a setup looks too good to be true, it usually is.' For example - Think of a marathon - If i was a marathon runner why would I run a marathon with a weighted backpack on and ankle weights? I would TRY to run; realize they were weighing me down, then I would throw them off and then continue running. Thats basically how the market is with all the retail traders trying to ride it in all directions. If it wants to start trending bullish for example - It may consolidate for a bit, accumulating buyers and sellers, retrace bullish or even just wick to remove liquidity and all sellers to shake them off before continuing bearish, because the buyers will be removed eventually as price starts trending down. Thats how I see the market anyways and when I learnt to see the market like this and base all my projections/analysis around liquidity, I was able to become more aware of price manipulations and fake outs so i was able to avoid them. Thinking like the banks and 'market makers' is the best way to become consistently profitable, because you will understand how and why price action moves and behaves in order to make money and you find yourself no longer getting stuck in liquidity traps and raids with the other retail traders. You need to see where all the liquidity is on the chart and THEN do your analysis and projections. Ask yourself - - In order to make as much money as possible, what does the bank need to do? - Which way is the most cost-effective way for the bank to move price? Because after all - The market is run like a business. - When you have all of this THEN you can start to do your technical analysis. - Does this look too good to be true? - What are other retail traders looking at doing here? - What does the market WANT them to do ? When I began to ask myself these questions i really started seeing a huge difference in my trading and my consistency and i wish someone had told me this sooner in my journey! :)
by Pmilanoxx_
4
KWH Interday BuyKing W. Harbmayg's Journal Entry #1 Interday Review: The direction came after a short which failed to break the previous low. It is also in alignment with my weekly buyside bias. Morning star is currently printing, which I ideally I should wait for the closing of the candle, and I decided to get in a bit early before the 5pm EST market close. I took it prematurely because of the information gleaned from the lower timeframes and that the 1H patterns are fairly reliable.
Long
by Harbmayg
2
DAX SHORT (PAPER PRACTISE)Looked bearish after the middle green candle 10:15 couldn't push past the 9:00 open bear candle before the drawback (BSL) . The EMA's and the weakening of new highs gave me confluence that the internal SSL would be swept along with the 9:45 close SSL. Quick trade however should of waited for the imbalance to be filled ( double 1 m FVG) below the SSL and then close my positon to ensure that it is still a bullish market structure. Moved stop loss to 0 making it risk free after the 1m ticked past the first SSL. Entry and close marked at 11:45.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by thelewisbeale
1
Black Swan Event: The Biggest Crypto Market Risk!In today’s article, we will be discussing a risk known as Black Swan Event. Now what is the Black Swan and why it is considered as the most unexpected event in the course of any economic crisis is the greater factor to be discussed. The most unexpected event that has the maximum possibility to occur in the market is called Black Swan, this term was first coined by NYU professor and economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The main attributes that shape the possibilities of Black Swan events: Unpredictability Potential Severities Widespread impact According to Taleb: A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. They are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity, yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a black swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to try to plan accordingly. Some believe that diversification may offer some protection when a black swan event does occur. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight. Extrapolating, using statistics based on observations of past events is not helpful for predicting black swans, and might even make us more vulnerable to them. The last key aspect of a black swan is that as a historically important event, observers are keen to explain it after the fact and speculate as to how it could have been predicted. Such retrospective speculation, however, does not actually help to predict future black swans as these can be anything from a credit crisis to a war. What is the impact on Institutional markets? We know that somehow, we can use normal factors of prediction and probability over mass numbers of people like the result predicting based on Normal distribution curve, for such things, even the extrapolation method is not working. Hence Black Swan can take the market in any form that is not predefined, that can attack a market with several forms like crashing of prices and regulatory risk of digital exchanges. What are the two different types of Black Swan risk? Black Swan occurs within two types one is the positive impact and another one is a negative impact, now the inability to predict the accurate possibilities is the driving force behind the execution of the Black Swan event. Any clampdown on the trading of cryptocurrencies and other digital money can directly crash the prices of other currencies. The crackdown of Cryptocurrency exchanges by any third parties or other factors can also be counted as the Black Swan effect, many particular exogenous events can be forced to occur like: Inverse Volatility The crackdown of Crypto exchanges Regulatory risk of Crypto exchanges Low liquidity and low trading volume Having said that, 2022 has been the year of the “Black Swan” throughout the world of cryptocurrency. From the fall of LUNA to the insolvency of 3AC, Celsius, FTX and now BlockFi, the market has taken major hits in value and credibility. Each one of these events seemingly was viewed as a once in a lifetime event. To sum up, the Black Swan event is described in the following summarized manner: This event is so rare that it has many unknown possibilities occurring suddenly. Also, the impact is so huge that it can have a catastrophic effect. The hindsight conclusion if the prediction comes as true. Conclusion At last, one could conclude that many events could turn into a Black Swan in crypto trading such as, Network Congestion where everyone is rushing to have Ethereum and it subsequently raises the price of gas. In this case, when Black Swan occurs, the problem increases tenfold times and also this affects the liquidation process and also low-value transfers can simply attack the blockchain system. If you liked it, make sure to support with a like, follow and a comment! Best Regards, CryptoQueens.
Education
by Crypto_Queens_Official
23