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Marketstructure

#EURUSD next moveIn order to analyze EURUSD move we can use intermarket analysis as well, and as you can see for a past couple of month we have high positive correlation between EURUSD and TLT ( US 20 year treasury bond ETF). Right now that price has been trapped in a rangy area for a Days, we can say for a breakout of any side we need to see confirmation from TLT as well. which means if price wants to create a Higher high and penetrate the high we need to see TLT create new high as well and goes above the arrow on TLT curve. However, if TLT is unable to create new high but EURUSD does there might be intermarket divergence between these two assets and that perhaps could signal for a bearish divergence which can be followed by a downside reversal on EURUSD. A third scenario would be that they both fail to create high and turn to the downside which in this case EURUSD chance to break to the downside is higher. A lot of news can have impact on the movement of TLT like tomorrow unemployment rate but for sure the single most important one would be federal reserve fund rate which going to be announce on 14th of December , and if fed hike rates is lower than expectation that can bring TLT Higher and drive EURUSD Higher as well.
by mohemati
#JPYbasket bullish move confirmationsyesterday red candle was not only a retest to a broken bearish channel upper line, but also head and shoulder neckline. in addition to these two confluence we should be aware that JPY index suffers a lot through past month during rate hike cycle of central banks and fall massively like never before. But now that we have some confluences that we are close to end of rate hike cycle JPY has found some room to appreciate against other currencies and as a result in technical aspect we can see it had formed and broke bullish chart pattern and its no longer trading in bearish channel. with the look at the text book chart pattern target we can see that price can come all the way up to the oldest bearish channel midline and from there we should be looking for other confirmation and change in macro-economy.
FX:JPYBASKETLong
by mohemati
#AUDCAD potential long term selling opportunitytake a look at where price currently is sitting on and the long term resistive cluster around price... price at the moment is testing a bearish weekly channel resistance line and also at weekly high which means if the downtrend in weekly scale wants to resume price cannot close above this high. although that price can whipsaw above it but it can't close above it. for taking a position depends on the kind of a trader you are say risk averse or risk seeking you may enter now or wait for a more and clear confirmation in lower timeframe. and perhaps waiting to see a shift in market structure or chart pattern formations. Also we can see a bearish divergence between price and RSI indicator in Daily time frame.
Short
by mohemati
EU 1D TF Chart Markup Hello traders. This is EUR/USD 1D timeframe. In this analysis, you will see a detailed breakdown of this pair and my forecast. IMPORTANT -It is very important that you read every part of the PA, so that you can better understand the PA and the language of the market. We will start with a detailed breakdown from left to right. Chart recap 1. Here we can see that the price is in a long downtrend, after the reaction from the first supply zone , we see a nice bearish momentum. 2. After the impulsive BOS price leaves wicks, when we see wicks, it tells us that the price has no more momentum, but in this situation, the wicks are respected because the price went correctively towards the supply zone . 3. After a long downtrend, the price finally breaks the supply zone , here we see a change of character and bullish momentum. 4. When the price makes an impulsive change of character where we see momentum is present, we can expect a change in trend. 5. In the end, the price left wicks, which tells us that the price has no more momentum. Forecast 1. We see a nice change of character after a long downtrend, and here we expect a change in trend. 2.The price has left wicks that tell us that the price has no more momentum. 3.If we see a corrective pullback, wicks will be respected, and we can expect a continuation of the uptrend. 4.That's all about this analysis, if you have any additional questions, drop a comment down below.
Long
by hybridtradingfx
EUR/AUD: smart bought in the reaction points!!!Euro/Australian Dollar look bullish from this point that I identify a possible nice opportunity to get so much pips in this only trade. As first, in Daily timeframe EUR/AUD forming a bullish channel perspective that could to continue climb until $1.5920 AUD. Also, the candlestick it's appear that still bullish. In H4 timeframe we are in the smart zone in the $1.5551 AUD that price it's just make reaction in this zone to find down new buyers to long position. And also, I make some correlations that I draw a order block and a diagonal point line that work like support and maybe, if in H4 timeframe closed up with a bullish signal. We can to see a strength in this par. And finally, we're in H2 timeframe here in this analysis, and we see that that EUR look strength than Aussie. So guys, we see a nice opportunity here to bought!! Good luck!!!
Long
by harisonhbn9718
#GBPJPY selling opportunityprice bearish impulsive move broke market structure as well as short term bullish trendline to the downside. price is now below 1H, 30M, 15M EMA 200, and in last hour price formed a bearish engulfing candle which shows that sellers are now into the market after a short term bullish corrective move. now that we have different confluence for bearish scenario we can sell this pair if following happen: 1- price fail to close above the arrow 2- price forming double top or failure swing formation. (both of the formations shows price failing to goes higher) 3- bearish engulfing candle stick formation
Short
by mohemati
The true thinking process of the banks - Forex Master Pattern Hello there traders, in this article I have compressed information which will be useful for every trader. There is this trading methodology which very little know of (Even though its public information) that revolves around a market cycle which consist of an contraction, expansion, and trend. This article will just open the doors to your understanding of these principles, and will just go over the basics, to master it you must practice it a lot and identify many different zones in the markets. Practice Makes Perfect __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ What will be gone over in this article? This article will explain what exactly are contraction phases, expansions, and trends and how to identify these different market phases. Get a basic understanding of what institutional traders look for and how they operate vs Retail. What exactly is the value line and how it acts like the "center of gravity". __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ What is the Forex Master Pattern? The “Forex Master Pattern”, is a alternative type of Technical Analysis which shows the true psychological patterns of the Financial Markets. This pattern has 3 Phases, which is known as the Contraction, Expansion, and the Trend Phase, which will complete one market cycle in this term. This pattern also creates a concept known as the “value line,” which is the fair value zone or the neutral belief zone where buyers and sellers agree is the fair value. Consider it in terms of the center of gravity. This pattern is present on every timeframe and in every market with enough liquidity and volume, and shows the behavior, psychology and activity of retail, professional traders, institutional traders and investors and market makers. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Contraction Phase The contraction phase is the setup and it indicates a period that the market is in consolidation, with a tight and narrow range. During the contraction phase there is going to be low institutional volume and they are avoiding positions and trades. It is best to avoid trade entries in this phase and wait for a clear trend after the expansion. The Expansion Phase The expansion phase is the play and its when the institutional traders begin to accumulate positions. There are many things that institutional traders would do in this phase. If the institutional trader or "market maker", main goal is to buy the asset, they will drive the price lower with their money to draw in retail traders to place shorts and sell their positions which will generate liquidity for "smart money" to buy cheaper. and vice versa. If the institutional trader or "market maker", main goal is to sell then they will make the price go up a little with their own money to lure in traders who will buy their bags so that "smart money", can sell in a profit and overvalued. The Trend Phase The trend phase is the final phase that completes this market cycle. Once the institutional traders feel like it is time for them to start taking profits, will commence the distribution cycle which causes price to move down. All this profit taking from "smart money", will eventually lead retail traders to understanding that they were in the wrong side of the trade and the panic, liquidations, and stops start. Eventually they panic and start buying back in, and this generates liquidity for institutional investors and traders to take profits, leaving retail with overvalued bags, for the cycle to repeat itself again. For the short scenario it'll be a vice versa too, they will move price up with their own money, cause retail to believe the price is going up so that they get into wrong trades (Retail buys, Smart Money Shorts), they start accumulating short positions or selling their bag and with the trend drive price back to value or even below, and at this point retail again begin the panic, liquidations, and get stopped, and ultimately sell their bags to institutional traders who buy at a discount. This pattern is also similar to the accumulation and distribution cycle and are basically the same theories with different executions. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ What is the value line? Previously in this article I have explained how contraction zones create fair value lines. Value lines can be described as the average price and the neutral belief zone for price. It sorta acts like an center of gravity. Knowing the HTF value lines can be your key to success since you will understand the general direction of the market. Value lines help you visually understand what territory the market is in, like if its consolidating at value you should avoid entering any trade at all cost and wait for the expansion and perhaps the trend. These value lines and contractions can also be used to find certain broadening wedge ranges and the longer price stays in a proper broadening wedge the more volatile it will get. The broadening wedge starting from the origin of the contraction is rare to find but can create some pretty good scalping environments and conditions. Conclusion: Well I hope this was educational, and it gives you another way of understanding the markets. This article was pretty basic in understanding this pattern and methodology but hopefully now you have more awareness. The best way to start understanding these principles is to practice in the charts and learn to identify the three phases. This isn't a strategy but more like a theory or a concept which explains the behavior of the market. With proper understanding you can create many different strategies since this is extremely versatile and works on any market and timeframe if the liquidity is there. So go on the charts and try to identify the three phases and see how you can improve your trading game!.
Education
by Traders_Endeavors
2
2:1 RiskToReward: Gold Sell Off This trade idea is supported by multi-timeframe analysis, trend continuation and market structure. All key components of sound price action trading. Going into the trade setup, Gold is trading "flat" for the day (price is equal to the start of the day). However that doesn't tell the whole story, throughout the Asian session the market traded up and tested one of our levels highlighted from the market breakdown I posted last week (linked below). As the market ticked over into the London session, price broken below this marked red arrow line to signify both a break of support and also a break of the market structure on the small 1hr timeframe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by JoelWarby
6