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Marketstructure

Crypto Market InsightsExamining the broader crypto market, it's evident that we've hit the Wave 4 target zone on the Total Market Cap chart, reacting perfectly—a precise landing in this case. This suggests that, looking at the entire market as a unified entity, we should form new local highs and surpass Wave 3. When we look at other indicators, like the Ethereum to Bitcoin chart, we see that the price is falling, indicating Ethereum's strength relative to Bitcoin has been declining for some time. We're now at the lowest level in three years. This could soon reverse, potentially triggered by a trendline that has been touched twice since January 2020, indicating a possible turn. If Ethereum turns around, it would likely lead the Altcoins. During an Altcoin season, Ethereum usually pumps before other Altcoins follow. This means we need a bit more patience. Regarding Bitcoin dominance, we expect another rise to continue the four-month trend of higher highs and higher lows. This could lead to a subsequent drop in dominance, possibly placing us back in the current range. A falling Bitcoin dominance, combined with a rising Bitcoin price, would propel Altcoins, potentially coinciding with a turn in the Ethereum to Bitcoin chart. Several factors align favorably. We just need to stay patient, focused, and ready to seize opportunities.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by stromm_by_wmc
Bitcoin & Ethereum - Market Thought Just checked BTC and ETH again and escpecially ETH is playing out like wanted. The strenght over the last days was nothing not to note but we said it in our last report, we need to flip 64,2k on BTC and 3200$ on ETH to remain bullish in the long term. On BTC we are back to exactly 64,2k where we rejected multiple times now throughout the last weeks and on ETH we got the current quartarly VWAP coming in our way. There should come a correction of the past surge in the coming days but how far? Either we are coming down on BTC 62,7k, ~60k or even a new lower low to 55k. It is all not of the table so be cautios and always trade with stop losses if you are trading with leverage. A possible setup for BTC could be another drop into the 2H FVG and than a push upwards to the current level, this idea would be much stronger if we are getting a candle break over 64,3k else we could be witnessing the same sell off as the last time we tried to break this level and ended as an SFP. Moreover we are being slightly oversold in the RSI and on the edge of our monday high range, the coming days could get interesting
Long
by stromm_by_wmc
Potential Long Setup on OPWe've identified a promising long setup on OP with several strong confluences: 1. **Sweep of MDay-Low Range**: The price has swept the MDay-Low range, moving right into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Demand zone. 2. **Bullish Market Structure**: The market remains bullish as long as the demand holds. 3. **Range Low Within Demand**: The range low is situated inside the demand zone. 4. **Multiple FVGs Above**: Various FVGs on different time frames are positioned between $2.83 and $2.97. We anticipate these levels will be taken out in the future, though the timing is uncertain. Additionally, we have lost the trendline and retested it perfectly, which should provide sufficient momentum to the downside, allowing us to get filled here. We have set the stop loss a bit wider than usual to account for a potential dip below the demand zone to capture the resting liquidity there. All these factors combined provide enough momentum and security to validate this setup as a high-probability trade.
Long
by stromm_by_wmc
1
BTCUSD: The Game of Probabilities | New ATH? 65.28% Chance!Medium-term analysis of COINBASE:BTCUSD indicates that the price is poised to surge towards new all-time highs, with a probability of 65.28%! Let's get into the underlying reasons for this: 1. The current status on the "1D" timeframe is "Active," indicating that the price has already reached and touched the 50% equilibrium level on the current timeframe. 2. Since the price has reached the equilibrium level of the daily timeframe, our focus now shifts to determining which liquidity side presents higher probabilities compared to the other. 3. In this scenario, the 1D/BSL (Buyside liquidity) indicates a 65.28% probability of the price reaching the 73835.57 level again. More details: Feel free to share your thoughts or any feedback you have on the analysis. Also, if you're interested in analyzing the probabilities directly on your charts make sure to check out the Free Public Indicator that I've published recently!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Fractalyst
RNDR - another long opportunityRender is reacting more than others and it seems to be in an different market structure here as we have been building more higher higher lows and higher highs when zooming out. Currently we are on the edge of the MDay-Low range, we are looking for a sweep of this Weak Low and the MDay-Low right into the 1H demand zone and the range low. The volume profile should hold too. If RNDR is not holding this case, we are going to drop to $8.68-8, where we are going to set new entrys in case we fall through the demand. This setup is more risky as BTC seems to not get above the desired 63.5k level. Manage your risk accordingly.
RLong
by stromm_by_wmc
Eurjpy Potential Sell setup 400pipsSo the view of this downside move is based on USDJPY analysis which we talked about how the interest rate differential, Similar pattern behavior of USDJPY as the government sell bonds to buy back their currency yen!! so we are looking at the same theory at play This is the video I talked about USDJPY similar pattern So we could see price retrace to 61.8% fib or in between 50%-61.8% so have a eye on that yellow zone for confirmation of sell setup to downside Risk management is very good!! with decent ROI Follow for more forex analysis
Short
by ShinForex1
S&P500 Valuation In Current Economic EnvirontmentHello everyone, as title says, today I would like to speak about the S&P500 and its market valuation in the current economic environment. Since I prefer to study and analyze markets on higher time frames rather than day-to-day, this Case Study is based on quarter outlook (3M chart), to capture most of the available information using metrics that have significant inputs and outputs on the economy e.g. Interest Rates, Employment Rates, company Bankcruptcies & others. I decided to make this Case Study since I believe we may be on the verge of facing difficulties on micro and macro levels, which in history led into a downturn of equity markets for a prolonged period of time. It may be argued that some of these Cases are not relevant since they don't include full data, and that would be fair. But at the same time, I would point out that these data and used Cases are the most relevant to this day, because of their similarities to today's economic environment even if not in a full manner. For better understanding, you need to take a look at Pic1. (Pic1.:S&P500 chart with color legend) -Captured time windows consist of the US Unemployment rate moving from relatively low levels to higher values in times when Interest Rates are relatively High. To make a better educated guess I included US bankcrupcies as an overall business health indicator. -Inflation Rate or Federal Reserve Balance could be used additionally. Historically, I would argue that the most similar to this day looks Case Nr.4 In both, we have: a, rallied to ATH in unfavorable market conditions (3to4, 5to6?) b, unemployment rate curving up from the bottom c, bankcruptcies curving up from the bottom d, interest rates are high (and cuts are around horizont) Why is that important? Because as Pic2. shows: (Pic2.:S&P500 drawdown from top) -In all of these cases market bled and did not start turning around BEFORE FED found the bottom rate. And they have not even started cutting yet.. That in my view is a huge red flag and it brings attention to "Not IF we are about to go lower, but WHEN we are about to start going lower." It may be a month, two or three... but if we take a look at what the chart and those economic metrics suggest, it's most likely will not be a pretty ride until all of those are resolved in favorable manner for markets, which may take year or longer as historical cases shown.. Unless they decide to print NEW TRILLION$$$ Hopefully, this case study was helpful for some of you in further market navigation. If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me. Also, if you are interested in more updates or you would like to receive personal analysis with lower time frame updates daily, let me know in the comments or DM. Best Regards, Joe
SP:SPX
by cryptocapitaltrading
1
Gbpusd is ready for selloff. Based on the market structure we see price broke the daily consolidation and now price is retracing to the neckline zone which come in confluence with the trendline of the lower highs So I think its a very nice calculated risk with multiple confluence of trendline in H4 and fib level plus the neckline of the consolidation STOP LOSS IS ABOVE THE POC LEVEL OF the market structure in case of fakeout on today's news after 2 hrs. keep an eye on it Follow more for more breakdowns!!!
Short
by ShinForex1
Eur/Usd Ready to massive sell 155 pips!!Based on previous post i talked about how eurusd has broken. the head and shoulder neckline and price is now retresting the neckline has resistance, still the interest rate is neutral which mean dollar will gain liquidity cause of the interest rate differential so we see price respecting the 31.8% fib level which is also in confluence with the POC level of activity volume NOTE; The only thing you have to worry about is NFP news later tomorrow and some news today. make sure you put stop loss and manage your risk. there is small probably it can do a fake out! Follow me for more breakdown
Short
by ShinForex1
USDT Dominance (1H) and possibility of a riseAnalysis on USDT.D chart (1H) suggests that a falling wedge pattern is being formed(other confluences such as divergence also hint at this pattern). if confirmed (breakout from above the pattern), market can dump for a day or two. Remember that a rise in USDT.D means a dump in the BTC and the crypto market. if the pattern fails, the current pump in coins shall continue with a stronger momentum. possible tp levels: 4.74% - 4.84% - 4.88% - 4.94%
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by AlgoBotTrading