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#AUDJPY bullish possible continuation movePrice has correctively reached an important medium-term support zone , which is further reinforced by the presence of the 200EMA. Additionally, we observe that the price has taken out liquidity from the low and formed what appears to be a double bottom pattern. These indications suggest the possibility of a bullish continuation move, potentially driving the price back to previous highs and beyond. If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
Long
by mohemati
1
CAPE Fear: Is the Stock Market Headed for a Cliff Dive? A dark cloud hangs over the seemingly sunny skies of the stock market. The culprit? A valuation metric known as the CAPE ratio, which is currently hovering near its third-highest level in history. This has some investors spooked, whispering fears of a potential market plunge. But is this cause for panic, or simply a cautionary sign? The CAPE ratio, or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, takes a company's average earnings over the past 10 years into account, rather than just the most recent year. This provides a smoother picture of a company's value and avoids distortions caused by short-term fluctuations. When applied to the entire S&P 500 index, it offers a snapshot of the overall market valuation. Historically, a high CAPE ratio has often preceded significant market downturns. For instance, the dot-com bubble burst of the early 2000s and the 2008 financial crisis were both preceded by elevated CAPE ratios. This correlation has led some to believe that the current high CAPE ratio is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. However, the story isn't quite so black and white. Here are some factors to consider: • Earnings Growth: A key caveat is that high CAPE ratios can be justified by strong corporate earnings growth. If companies are consistently generating more profits, a higher valuation might be warranted. While future earnings are never guaranteed, a healthy corporate sector with robust profit margins can support a higher CAPE ratio. • Interest Rates: Interest rates play a crucial role in stock valuations. When interest rates are low, as they have been for the past decade, stocks become more attractive compared to bonds and other fixed-income investments. This can drive up valuations, even if underlying fundamentals haven't necessarily strengthened. • Investor Psychology: Investor sentiment can also influence the market. If investors are feeling optimistic and bullish, they may be willing to pay a premium for stocks, pushing valuations higher. Conversely, fear and uncertainty can lead to a sell-off, causing a rapid decline in the CAPE ratio. So, what does this mean for the future of the stock market? • Caution is warranted: A high CAPE ratio is a signal that the market may be overvalued. Investors should be cautious and avoid blindly chasing momentum stocks. Diversification and a focus on long-term fundamentals remain crucial investment strategies. • Not a guaranteed crash: A high CAPE ratio doesn't necessarily predict an imminent market crash. It simply suggests that future returns might be lower than those experienced in recent years. • Focus on quality: Instead of chasing high-flying stocks with inflated valuations, investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals, a history of consistent earnings growth, and sustainable business models. The current market situation calls for a balanced approach. While a high CAPE ratio is a reason for caution, it shouldn't trigger panic selling. Investors should be mindful of valuation metrics, but also consider factors like earnings growth, interest rates, and overall economic health. By adopting a prudent investment strategy and focusing on quality companies, investors can navigate this period of uncertainty and potentially weather any potential storms.
SP:SPXShort
by bryandowningqln
S&P bears attack, bulls still holdLast week was marked by the aggressiveness of sellers and the resilience of buyers. On Monday Buyers were ideally positioned for another break out but they didn’t have enough steam to accomplish it. Sellers, long awaiting their opportunity, pushed the price down, breaking the weekly support. However, they couldn’t develop this into something more significant, as the bulls returned with a firm "no". The rest of the week continued in the same tug-of-war fashion. The most confusing days were Thursday and Friday. Thursday started very bullish but ended with a dramatic bearish turn. Friday, expected to be bearish, unfolded under the bulls' control. This was a story. Now, let’s now review all the signals more formally: Bearish Signals • Confirmed downtrend on the daily chart, indicated by a lower high and lower low. • Weekly consolidation has begun. Bullish Signals • The week closed right at the previous week's low after price shaped hourly higher low • Friday’s value zone is within the value zone of the previous four days. The context remains very bullish – price is in a strong weekly uptrend, last month closed very strong. Overall, it is a very ambiguous case with neither side having a clear advantage. Buyers are exhausted, yet not willing to capitulate. Bears are attempting to play their game but lack sufficient strength. The short-term outlook is neutral. From this position market can go in any direction. We need additional signs of one side gaining an upper hand. Until then, it is not advisable to place big bets on either side. Wednesday is a very important day, with both the release of inflation data and the FOMC meeting Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
2
The Wash and Rinse To See True Support/ResistanceTrue support and resistance is found in the meat of the move, not at the extreme highs and lows. To find it, Simply draw a zone or box and look for the place that price touches the most, and then pay attention to what happens afterward. In this lesson, I set up a trade plan and show how a Wash and Rinse structure at the pivot of a swing uses the most touches to find true support in a market. I then show how to identify it. The Wash and Rinse has a process that we can follow in real-time. 1. Multi-Pivot Line (MPL) 2. Zoom through the MPL 3. Come back and retest the MPL 4. Zoom back through the MPL the other way What happens in this process, is that buyers are holding some level. Price then busts that level triggering stops and at the same time encouraging shorts to enter. Then price rips back up essentially cleaning the book of orders and showing where the true support is (at least for the time being). Once you can recognize this structure, you can begin making your own observations and use these levels to read a market or begin to build a setup around it. The most important part is to learn to design a plan with objective rules around what you observe. Shane
NASDAQ:RCKTEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
2
USD JPY - incoming 1990, then 1987?G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Monthly simply put, look at 1990 and the gap formed in the fresh supply above at 157.XX - 164.XX (1987). not there is a hidden zone within 1986 which can be a final supply zone. Weekly The market has made a double top within the weekly supply, we'll await the confirmation on the daily time frame however. The weekly zone has been built up upon a strong resilience zone from the supply zone (note this is a strong supply zone which dates back to 1990/91) , where multiple rejection weeks have occurred and price has been in an accumulation phase since. Daily High curve created for the daily supply, and now the buyers have created again a high curve, with this time a marked zone where price can pivot to (subject to confirmation), before price can begin its journey back into the supply, after a strong demand zone which can be brought back to. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIV
by LupaCapital
#USDCAD rising wedge pattern breakoutIn case of bearish breakout of a rising wedge pattern base on technical analysis text book, we could expect more bearish move in price. Also we can see in the last bullish move price formed a bearish divergence. Also price managed to shift market structure to bearish in lower timeframe which add to the possibility of bearish move. If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
Short
by mohemati
1
#GBPNZD inverted head and shoulder patternAs evident from the chart, the price is not only currently trading towards higher prices within a rising channel line but has also established a valid breakout from a very long-term daily timeframe inverted head and shoulders pattern. This phenomenon suggests a high possibility of a bullish move in this currency pair, and we might witness much higher prices in the future. If this pattern materializes, based on the one-to-one price target projection, we can assume that the price will at least reach the previous top formed on August 21st, 2023, if not higher. However, I recommend waiting for a pullback towards the broken neckline before taking a position on this pair, or alternatively, look for the proper entry point in a lower timeframe based on your strategy. If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
Long
by mohemati
BTC is not an easy path for the most inexperienced!! "Bitcoin has depreciated by -12.37% since its peak on Thursday, March 14th, at 73.7K. BTC/USDT has fallen to the support level of 64.3K (25-period daily exponential moving average). From that level, buyers have defended the cryptocurrency against further declines, and it has recovered to the 69K level. At the time of writing this article, the flagship crypto is trading at 67.4K. If it closes above 69K, it could continue the bullish trend, aiming for the resistance at 73.7K and targeting the next level of 80K. Will central bank meetings impact BTC's price? The **Bank of Japan** is debating the possibility of ending its negative interest rate policy in its monthly monetary policy meeting. This comes after significant wage increases accompanying inflation. On the other hand, the **Federal Reserve** of the United States will keep its interest rates unchanged in its meeting this week, maintaining its benchmark rate at a 23-year high. Additionally, the **Bank of England** might pause rate hikes in its meeting this week, as August inflation data has been better than expected. In summary: - Bank of Japan: Possible end to negative rates. - Federal Reserve: Rates unchanged. - Bank of England: Possible pause in rate hikes. The daily technical analysis of BTC/USDT shows the MACD indicator with an ongoing red valley, which could lead to further declines for Bitcoin. However, if the 66.8K support level (0.786 Fibonacci) remains unbroken by the price, with a daily candle close above it, the price could experience a new pump toward new highs. The 25-period exponential moving average on the daily chart acted as support during the drop on Saturday, March 16th, providing relief to HOLDERS after less experienced crypto participants faced liquidation." "THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SUCH. EACH INDIVIDUAL IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS AS A TRADER, INVESTOR, ETC..."
Long
by CRYPTONIA5