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MBS

REM: Partial Rise within an Ascending Broadening WedgeAs the Fed Funds Rate rises and the rise in Consumer Credit Balances come to a halt, I think it will lead to Deflationary Pressure. This pressure would likely send Short Term Bond Yields lower starting with the ultra short ones like the 1 year and below, when this happens I think we could then see this be reflected within the Mortgage Back Securities (MBS) and if that's the case, this ETF will likely fall because it mostly holds a lot of very Short Term MBSs with maturities ranging between 0 and 5 Years, and as the rate of the MBSs fall so will the Demand for them which would likely lead to lower prices. Due to what I explained above I think that this Harmonic ABCD BAMM break down will likely happen and send REM down to the 1.13 Fibonacci Extension.
AMEX:REMShort
by RizeSenpai
WTI UpdateOkay, the Saudis did cut. I must confess that I underestimated His Royal Highness's ability to surprise. That leaves us with a possible gap on Monday. Given the market pressures and the fact that the previous cut was ineffective in sustaining the price, the gap is unlikely to be as large as in April. The gap is, most likely, wave 3 of (c) of the first wave up in the leading diagonal. There is still a chance that wave (ii) will close the gap, as shown on the chart. MBS, you did an excellent job. I am not as long as I could have been.
TVC:USOIL
by Fomenka
3
GBPJPY 15M 02/05/2023 Currently, on the 15-minute timeframe, we are in a bearish trend formed by two changes in structure. Therefore, we are currently in a bearish range that goes from 171.604 to 169.952, with the latter being the liquidity point of the current bearish range. We have a demand zone in the area of 171.559 to 171.382, and the second zone is between 172.328 and 172.162. We could expect a reaction in both zones, provided we observe how the price orders approach these areas. Alternatively, we could wait for these ranges to be liquidated and broken to establish a new bullish trend and liquidate the liquidity points of the previously established ranges.
Short
by mdr300896
GBPJPY 1H 02/05/2023 Currently, on the one-hour timeframe, we are in a bullish range that extends from 168.713 to 172.094, with the latter being the liquidity point of the current range. We can look for a bullish reaction once the price reaches our potential area of interest between 169.387 and 168.729. Alternatively, if the price shows a marked downward movement, we could look for reactions to the upside at the second area of interest, which is between 167.368 and 166.431. However, if it reaches this zone with a double structure break, we could expect that the zone would be liquidated.
Long
by mdr300896
GBPJPY 4H 02/05/2023 Currently, in the 4-hour timeframe, we are in an uptrend range ranging from 165.422 to 172.328, with the latter being the liquidity point of the current range. We can also see that the price has left us two demand zones of interest in the areas of 167.388 to 166.431 and another from 165.991 to 165.648. When the price touches these areas, we can look for a reaction in favor of the main trend as long as we see how the price reached these zones. Alternatively, we can decrease the timeframe to follow the ranges that are being created in favor of the trend.
Long
by mdr300896
GBPJPY 1D 02/05/2023Currently, on the daily timeframe, we are in a bullish range that extends from 165.422 to 172.328, with the latter being the liquidity point of the current range. We can also observe that the price has left an unmitigated zone between 167.341 and 166.431, where we can expect a bullish reaction. Therefore, we can wait for the price to reach this zone to anticipate a possible reaction in favor of the trend, or alternatively, we can go down to lower timeframes to see what new ranges in favor of the trend are forming and can be traded.
Long
by mdr300896
USDJPY 1H 26/04/2023Currently, on the 1-hour timeframe, we are in a bearish range that goes from 133.94 to 133.01. We can also see that the structure has broken down multiple times, mitigating the larger demand zones. Therefore, we could expect two possibilities: firstly, the price could react to one of the marked gray demand zones, or alternatively, it could break the structure upwards without a pullback. This would signal a possible redistribution, and we could look for bearish ranges in lower timeframes to continue the established movement.
Short
by mdr300896
BTCUSD 1D 26/04/2023Currently, on the daily timeframe chart, we are within a bullish range that ranges from 26,679 to 31,170, with the latter being the liquidity point of the range. We can also see that the price reacted to the first supply zone ranging from 27,590 to 26,689, and the mitigation of this zone could indicate that we can look for new bullish ranges in favor of the daily trend in lower timeframes to position ourselves in the movement towards the liquidity point of the daily range.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by mdr300896
XAUUSD 15M 25/04/2023In the 15-minute timeframe, we can see that the price has changed its trend to bullish. Therefore, we could look for some type of upward reaction to reach our zones of interest in higher timeframes. In this timeframe, we should wait for this range to be liquidated, either by closing above 1994 or by retracing to the zone between 1979 and 1976 to expect some kind of bullish reaction. However, we should always keep in mind the factors that are at play, as we would not be following the main trend, and we should be cautious. Moreover, we should note that the price has only broken to the upside once, so we would need to wait for a double breakout to be more confident about a bullish entry.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by mdr300896
What is causing a 14% decline in MBS?What is a Mortgage Backed Security? A Mortgage Backed Security are shares of a Special Purpose Entity (SPE) that holds mortgages. Whenever someone buys a home they usually purchase it with a mortgage. Investment Banks (underwriters) put up the capital and create a mortgage agreement with the home owner. Banks don’t want to carry the risk of mortgages defaulting so they create a corporation for offloading the risk. The corporation is called a Special Purpose Equity (SPE). The role of an SPE is to issue shares of the corporation for investors to buy called Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Investors in the Mortgage Backed Securities take on the risk for a dividend/yield. What is causing a 14% decline in MBS? Back in 2007-2009 was the global financial crisis (GFC) as a result of mis-management of MBS industry that sent the world economies in recession and markets declined. The problem started much earlier leading up to 2005 as new homes were being built and sold at highest levels 1972. Lenders were essentially giving special promotional rates to any buyers with a pulse called sub-prime. When these sub-prime mortgages began to default it caused a cascading effect to the entire housing industry. Today is different, but we may only see the tip of the iceberg. The Fed began buying and holding MBS after the decline in 2008 and currently holds in the tune of 2.7 Trillion in MBS. The Fed has started a cycle of tightening and in September will begin unloading their MBS. New housing starts are down as a result of higher interest rates rising and inflation in commodities like lumber. Volatility in lumber prices were the first to indicate problems over the last 2 years as prices of lumber fluctuated drastically because of problems with supply and demand.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:MBB
by SPYvsGME
28
MBS - The Darkest end of the PoolBravo TV, off again by over a Trillion, no mention of the Junk Co sitting on Primaries @ $50 they cannot unload. FED MBS is $2.7 Trillion. Commercial Banks hold $3.13 Trillion in MBS. Get it together. ____________________________________________ NO BID is the current arrangement, 30 Year Mortgages up from 3 to 6%. The Fed's average Maturity is 7.1 Years, they'll be bagging these for some time and in order to bail out the primaries they'll have to suck up more. OR they can crash the Bond Markets. They'll attempt to run it off, but they own 28.2% of all Mortgages. The Bond Market is performing the FED's work, cuz the punks at the FED have no intention of powering in QT., rather, much further instability and dislocation Risk. ______________________________________________ THE FED IS TARGETING STOCKS for a reason... Thye need a Inverse Wealth Effect and are winning on that front. Much more to come... FSR is a 50% reduction @ 8K NQ and 2.4K ES. ______________________________________________ Growth, Payrolls, Retails Sales? Fight Inflation? Give us 75 to 100 in July. Bring down Equities to targets and transfer the Wealth. Far and away the easiest "Target" is the Market for Stocks.
FRED:MBST
by HK_L61
4
RE - Real Estate Double Top Before FOMCIdea for Real Estate: - Real Estate testing a double top after some exhaustion Sept-Oct. - MBB's rolling over, rejected at -1 Std Dev: - Because every other market component is already at +2/-2 Std Dev, and Real Estate is relatively less volatile than say S&P 500, I think the +1/-1 Std Dev is a good signal. - We will have more confirmation next week depending on Fed's decision to taper MBS purchases. I think the Fed will stick to their signaled schedule in hopes of avoiding any sort of a "tantrum". - Historically, RE and MBS's lead declines in equities. - We have seen both commodity prices, Building Permits and pending Home Sales come down, so a decline is natural: - Overseas property market declining is likely to have headwinds as well: GLHF - DPT
AMEX:XLREShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
Housing - Bubble PopIdea for Housing/REITs (VNQ): - The Housing Market will crash. I am short REITs. - Lumber rose 400% in a year during a global crisis and then dropped 50% in a month... This is not a correction, but a bubble pop. - China reining in commodity prices. They announce that they will soon release state stockpiles of metals: www.bloomberg.com - State firms ordered to curb overseas commodities exposure. - Fed continues MBS purchasing with QE, despite RRP skyrocketing. Why? The MBS and Housing bubble is critical, and it is ready to collapse. - Homebuyer sentiment drops to 10 year low: finance.yahoo.com - Homebuilder sentiment declines to reach a 10 month low (NAHB): news.yahoo.com - Housing prices being speculated such that locals are priced out of the market. Institutional investors and State-backed institutions buy up neighborhoods as they seek yield in an overheated global market. - The Credit Cycle has turned down, and the liquidity flows have been shut off. Institutions can no longer bid up their own assets. - As commodities prices crash, it will become cheaper to build a house than to buy one off the market, leading to increasing supply and decreasing demand. - When housing no longer provides yield, institutions will dump their assets onto the market and prices will crater. - MBS's and Lumber leading the crash, the REITs will soon get the hint. GLHF - DPT
Editors' picks
AMEX:VNQShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
41
Black Swan - The Housing BubbleSpeculative Idea for MBB (Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF): - Why is there a speculative housing bubble in the middle of a crisis? - "A major catalyst of the general financial crisis of 2008 was the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007, when a rising wave of defaults on home mortgages sent the value of mortgage backed securities plunging." - "They're in trouble right now," as Colleen Denzler, an investment manager at Smith Capital Investors, which has about $350 billion in assets under management (AUM), and who previously was the global head of fixed income at Janus Henderson, told BI. She is now underweight MBS. "Bubbles get popped when things turn around either through some sort of crisis or through a change in what caused them," she said. "This could be a while, and that's how we're positioned," she added. - "Other complex debt securities whose plunging values were a catalyst for the 2008 financial crisis are rising in popularity today. The synthetic CDO, a pool of derivatives linked to various categories of debt, is among them. Pessimists fear that history may be set to repeat itself, and that cautious investors should take cover." - NY Fed Report: Total household debt rose by $85 billion to $14.64 trillion. GLHF - DPT
NASDAQ:MBBShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
1
US 10 year yield forecast. Heading to 0?This is an update to previous ideas charted at New Years 2019. The 10 year yield has been following the path of lower yields in a lock step fashion, however the pace of declining yields is concerning. The 3 day looks like Niagara Falls Where do we go from here? Currently, the 10 yr yield is in the middle of the 1 (1.32%) and .786 (1.734%) retrenchment lines with a biased towards heading to 1.32. Two possibilities. 1) Yield punches right through 1.32% and set set new lows. 2) More likely in my view: "China/Trade" news comes along just in time to see yields reach or even briefly penetrate 1.32%, forming a triple bottom reversal, before reversing and heading back up towards 1.73% From here, yields could see a rejection from 1.32% and begin heading back towards 1.734%. RSI is oversold, also suggesting a reversal could come soon. However, said reversal will be fleeting. Sometime by or before reaching 1.734% I would expect yields to run out of steam and resume their decline before testing 1.32% and ultimately breaking lower. There is no such this as a quadruple bottom/top so in this scenario, the yield will crash below 1.32% and 0% becomes a very real possibility in the next 12 months. How does this tie into mortgage rates? The 10 year is a good general barometer for interest rates but Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), while improving (rates dropping) the rate of improvement has been slower than what we would expect given the halving of treasury yield in just 9 short months.
TVC:US10YShort
by jdharward