4/27 Watchlist + NotesSPY - Saw more downside as we had predicted last night. Made some solid range to the downside. I am expecting tomorrow to be a repeat of today or an inside day. We are reaching weekly downside exhaustion so I would say there is no reason to not be bearish... yet. But tomorrow could be a day of consolidation/retrace since we have had such big drops the past two days.
Watchlist:
MCD - 3-1
BABA - 2-1
Main Watch:
MCD - Looking for a heavy drop tomorrow. Seeing a Pivot Machine Gun pattern here that could play out nicely if sellers step up
Previous main watch:
W - Broke to the downside and banked. Solid trade overall. Pretty much filled all downside room I saw on my charts.
Watchlist Stats:
1/3 SPY Predictions
1/3 Main Watch Plays
Personal Stats:
0/2 On The Week
Overall Red
- Busy today with finals as I near the end of my semester at college.
- Wasnt able to trade because of this and probably wont be able to trade tomorrow either.
- Scalped some forex after hours but nothing serious
MCD
McDonald’s: Dig In! 🍴🐻After a long period of bullish appetite, the bears should dig in now. McDonald’s has thoroughly tapped the magenta-colored zone between $291.18 and $287.84 and also touched at the green zone between $294.18 and $290.10, completing wave in magenta as well as wave B in turquoise. Now, the share should drop out of the zone-compound in magenta and green and fall back below the mark at $282.43. Thus, the stock should gain enough downwards momentum to make it below the support at $259.51, where it should finish wave C in turquoise and wave (2) in magenta before turning upwards again. There is a 35% chance, though, for McDonald’s to continue climbing, leaving the green zone on the northern side. In that case, we would consider wave alt.(2) in magenta to be already finished.
MC DONALD'S TRADING LESSONSStory time…
One of the greatest success stories of all time, is with the company which is based on the glorious golden arches we still see today.
Mc Donalds…
It all started in 1940 where, two brothers, Maurice and Richard “Dick” Mc Donald’s made a small fortune selling hamburgers in San Bernardino, California…
They took a product and an idea and turned it into a fast, convenient and consistently profitable business.
Once they mastered their strategy and system then they introduced Ray Croc (a shrewd American businessman) into an agreement to build more Mc Donalds…
However, he barely made enough profits to sustain, find more franchisees and even pay off his expenses…
That’s when Harry Sonneborn came about where he made Ray Croc realise, he was in the land business rather than the restaurant business…
Ray Kroc explained…
“Pretty simple, really. Franchisee finds a piece of land he likes, gets a lease, usually 20 years, takes out a construction loan, throws up a building, and off he goes.”
Sonneborne then said:
“You don’t seem to realize what business you’re in. You’re not in the burger business. You’re in the real estate business.”
This conversation lead to the global expansion of McDonald’s, turning it into the most successful fast food corporation in the world.
In this article, I’m not going to talk about Ray Kroc, but instead how the brother’s starting concept applies to trading.
Here are three lessons I learnt from Mc Donald’s Success
#1: Less is more…
The brothers were geniuses from the start…
When something didn’t work, they threw it out… When something showed to work, they harnessed it, optimised it and improved it…
They did this with data.
The brothers took sales data to compare which products were making more money.
They found that 80% of their sales in the last 3 years came from simple burgers.
Each burger was made with precise ingredients.
Any deviation and this caused sales to drop.
The rest of the 20% were drinks and barbeque.
So the brothers made their life easy and got rid of the barbeque pit completely.
They also cut their menu down from 25 items to just 11 items.
It mainly had
Burgers
Fries
Milkshakes and
Soft drinks
They said let’s do less of what’s not helping sales and focus on what is making the most revenue.
Once they got rid of the barbeque pit the brothers later on systematised the burger making process.
So how does this relate to trading…
Less is more is one of my most powerful quotes when it comes to trading…
You need to cut out a LOT of data to maximise your returns…
Find one or two systems that suit you.
Minimise the number of markets, time frames and charts to look at.
Cut out unnecessary indicators that conflict with the systems signals and frequency.
Choose a certain time that works best for your system.
Stick to 1 or two financial instruments to trade.
Only have 1 or 2 or max 3 trading accounts with reason.
It will take time and effort on your side to cut out what needs to be cut, but you won’t regret it in the long run…
As Mc Donald’s did… Take a product improve it drastically then sell it to the masses.
#2: Find a system to repeat over and over
With Mc Donald’s did you know…
They took a tennis court and drew out the compartments of making a burger.
They then orchestrated it with their employees until the flow and speed was at the most optimised level.
Once they found a winning system, reduced the time to make a burger and optimise the process – they were able to even drop the price to appeal more demand…
At the time, they could drop the burger to 15 cents…
With trading, you know this…
You’ll need to find, adopt, follow and repeat your turn-key system.
It doesn’t matter whether it takes you 2 months, 2 years or even 7 years to get right.
Once you have it, you’ll be able to generate consistent results year in and year out.
Just like the cycle of burgers, you’ll have your very own consistent cycle of success through trading…
Also, with your one system you’ll be able to optimise it and improve it when conditions change…
This brings us to the third lesson…
#3: “We love to see you smile”
This was one of Mc Donald’s campaign they used from 2000-2003, which has stuck…
Not only does Mc Donald’s keep to their winning formula, systems, products and manner – but they also adapt to change…
They continue to offer new items on the menu’s as time’s change…
From Happy Meals, Toys, Lollipops, Café’s, Ice creams, food cultural adaptions to even Vegan food… They think of everything to adapt to change…
BUT! They don’t stop offering their winning products that bring in revenue.
With trading you need to also evolve as a trader and adapt to change.
Sure, your system will remain consistent.
Sure, your risk management won’t change…
But there are certain elements that require change such as…
New markets:
You might want to incorporate your system with new markets i.e. AI, Electric Vehicles, Metaverse, Cannabis, Energy alternatives, Crypto, NFTs. AI (with ChatGPT, DALLEE, BING) and so on…
New instruments:
Also, we might need to evolve from the current financial instruments we’re trading… Once day, CFDs and Spread Betting might be a thing of the past. I personally have evolved from shares, warrants, futures to ETFs. You never know what will be next…
New automations:
We might soon have robots and AI to use out system to find trades and execute them.
You get the point…
If you want to be successful with trading you have to understand the power of systems to repeat…
This way the system will do the job for you…
Next time you’re at Mc Donald’s, you’ll see what I mean.
MCD Mcdonalds is now at its all time highAs the market leader in the fast food industry, McDonalds enjoys global brand recognition.
It is a slow but steady gainer pays consistent dividends and always has buyers when a seller
lets some shares go at a reasonable price.
On the weekly chart over five years MCD is now at the all time high and weathered the
COVID era and recent market gyrations quite well. The EMA Cloud and Ichimmoku cloud
indicators have consistent slopes tracking in parallel. MCD is consistently above
the anchored long term VWAP showing buyers are in contro. It often uses the VWAP plus
one standard deviation for support. Fundamentally, if a recession hit when eating
customers will be looking for value as a high consideration.
My long term call options average 45% in monthly return. I will buy one more each
time there is a red engulfing candle on the daily or 4H chart.
see also money.cnn.com
MCD - BROKE Falling Trend Channel- MCD has broken through the ceiling of a falling trend channel in the medium long term.
- The price has broken through the ceiling at 272 of a rectangle pattern.
- A decisive break will signal a further rise to 286 or more.
- There is no resistance in the price chart and further rise is indicated.
- In case of a negative reaction, the stock has support at approximately 260.
- The RSI curve shows a rising trend, which could be an early signal of the start of a rising trend for the price as well.
- Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
MCDonalds Analysis + Trade Setup
In my opinion, this is one of the best sales deals on the current market.
In the monthly chart, this stock has a 5-wave trend, which is currently the end of wave 3 and we are at the starting point of wave 4. This wave will be in the form of A B C and it will be a big and rapid wave. The reason for its rapidity is the end of a 5-wave in the weekly time frame and a 5-wave in the daily time frame.
It is worth noting that wave A will start with a high initial acceleration and then take an oscillatory form with large fluctuations
Note: If you buy a transaction at this price, please be patient and focus more on your psychology so that you don't exit the market when emotional fluctuations start and save your profit completely.
Be successful and profitable.
The Daily Key Levels to Watch for MCDOn the daily chart, MCD is trading within a descending channel extending since October of the year 2022 and also trading on both sides of the crucial EMA-50, and around the swing level at $267.98 (Fibonacci level 78.6%). The breach above the previous two lines usually leads MCD towards testing the top of the descending channel, as well as retesting the support below the channel when breaking below them, so they are critical lines that may determine the trend within the channel.
On the bullish side, if MCD managed to breach above the descending channel and hold above it, then the level of $275.71 would be the initial target for the breach, and a further breach above it might also may signal the potential upcoming upside movement after the breach.
Also, the levels between 279.90-281.67 would also be the next targets for MCD. If the MCD also managed to stabilize above the previous targets, then the Fibonacci extension level near the $300 level would be the farthest target, and that maybe followed by pullback to the level of 281.67.
In the bear case, a breakdown below the crucial support area between EMA-200-100 as well as the dynamic support level and the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (the orange shaded areas), may invalidate the previous bullish hypothesis, and may push MCD to decline further towards the levels of $251.75-249.67.
Three stocks to watch during the ‘January Effect’ January has been historically a good month for stocks as some investors reenter the market after selling some of their holdings at the end of the year. The bullishness at the start of each year is dubbed the ‘January Effect’.
On January 6, US stocks staged their first big rally of the year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing 2.13%, the S&P 500 jumped 2.28% and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 2.6%.
It marked the best day for the Dow and the S&P 500 since November 30, 2022, and for the Nasdaq since December 29, 2022.
The rally could also be triggered by investors using their year-end cash bonuses to splurge into risky investments in January. With this in mind, we have rounded up three US stocks to watch in January:
Amazon.com
JP Morgan recently stated that Amazon remains its top internet pick, forecasting that the e-commerce giant will overcome macroeconomic headwinds by 2023. However, Amazon is no exception to the wave of layoffs in the tech space over the past year. The tech behemoth disclosed last week that is laying off 18,000 jobs, more than previously planned.
“Several teams are impacted; however, the majority of role eliminations are in our Amazon Stores and organizations,” Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said in a blog post on January 5.
But it is worth noting that Amazon remains the United States’ second-largest private employer next to Walmart. Amazon’s stock jumped 2.9% on Tuesday and 5.8% on Wednesday.
Tesla
Tesla recently applied to expand its Gigafactory in Texas with a $775.7 million investment, Reuters reported, citing filings with the Texas state department of licensing.
The investment plan comes despite Tesla missing delivery estimates in the fourth quarter of 2022. The company delivered 405,278 electric vehicles in the three months ended December 31, up 40% from a year earlier, but missing Elon Musk’s 50% growth target.
Tesla’s stock is also susceptible to its volatile CEO. The billionaire — who recently made it to the Guinness World Records for suffering the largest loss of personal fortune in history after shedding about $182 billion since November 2021 — has drawn attention from the federal government again after tweeting about disabling driver monitoring. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the issue is now part of a wider investigation into accidents involving at least 14 Tesla vehicles while using the Autopilot driver assist system.
Tesla rose 3.7% on Wednesday after falling by 1.6% on Tuesday.
McDonald's
McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) is another stock to watch in January after the largest fast-food company in the world announced that it is planning a restructuring that would result in corporate job cuts. The company told employees in a memo that it will “evaluate roles and staffing levels… and there will be difficult discussions and decisions ahead.”
In the quarter ended September 30, 2022, McDonald’s net income fell 8% year over year to $1.98 billion, or $2.68 per share, as revenue slipped 5% to $5.87 billion.
MCD closed up 0.6% on Tuesday but closed flat on Wednesday.
3 Amazing Lessons I learnt from McDonaldsI love McDonalds.
There was a time where I was ranking different burgers from around the world. UK, France, South Africa, Dubai, America, Switzerland and Greece.
And I only ranked about 4 burgers an 8 out of 10.
I know you’re going to hate but…
McDonalds Big Mc remains one of them I ranked 8 out of 10 – Delicious!.
Anyway, so I love the burger, I love the story – if you’ve seen “The Founder” movie.
And I love the lessons learned from the success story.
And since 2013, I always enjoy writing articles on how other companies, entities and even individuals can teach you indirectly about trading.
McDonalds is the one in the spot light for today!
3 lessons I learnt from McDonalds!
The fast-food giant has been able to achieve massive success by keeping things simple, sticking to a proven system, and adapting to changes in the market. These same principles can be applied to trading the financial
Lesson #1: Less is more…
The company has built its success on a relatively small menu of simple, easy-to-understand options. Also the way to make the meals are so simple with easy ingredients you probably have at home.
Well, traders can achieve better results by focusing on:
• Small number of markets or securities
• One or two systems
• One or two time frames
• One to three money management rules
• Less time trading and more time holding
Lesson #2: Find a System to Repeat
The company has built a highly efficient and repeatable system for making and delivering food.
Remember the scene in the movie “The Founder” where Ray Croc organised his system within a tennis court until mastered?
It’s simple, it works – and it’s never died out.
This has allowed them to replicate their success across thousands of locations worldwide.
With trading, you should also look for a system that you can repeat and stick with it.
I mean, by now my MATI Trader System – must feel like child’s play to you because of how I have taught you the system in and out. And I have shared with you hundreds of trade line ups already with Trading View.
And with you seeing it the system everyday, it must feel second nature for spotting a trade by now right?
Well, just like Rocket Science isn’t rocket science to a rocket scientist – That’s why you feel that way about my MATI Trader System…
And if you have a system that you swear by, you’ll feel the same way I do.
This can help you to avoid the pitfall of constantly switching strategies and missing out on long-term gains.
Lesson #3: Adapt to Change
McDonald's has also been able to adapt to changes in the market, such as:
• Environment concerns
• Consumer demand for healthier options
• Relevant and trendy toys in Happy Meals
• New neutral colour style restaurant catering to all nations and cultures around the world
• More options for vegans and vegetarians
They have and has been able to stay relevant and successful for decades.
Similarly, traders need to be able to adapt to changes in the markets, whether it:
Adding new markets to your watchlist
Adjusting your Risk to Reward during favourable and unfavourable environments
Shifts in economic conditions or changes in consumer preferences.
This might mean adjusting your trading strategy slightly or seeking out new opportunities in different markets.
You need to be able to adapt to change which is crucial for long-term success in the financial markets.
And so, McDonald's has been successful by keeping things simple, sticking to a repeatable system, and adapting to change.
Apply these principles to your own trading and you’ll find trading to be a walk in the park in the medium to long run…
Do you like McDonalds and what would you rate the Big Mc? I won’t judge.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
(Financial trader since 2003)
MCDONALDS Bad for your health - good for your portfolio.The McDonalds Corporation (MCD) is defying the Bear Market as on November 10 it made a new All Time High. Today it pulled-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) amidst the general post Fed market drop for the first time in nearly two months (since October 21).
As you see it is trading within a long-term Channel Up since the 2020 COVID crash and is best seen if we apply the Fibonacci extension levels. The current pattern since November 10 in fact looks like the Megaphone of April - July 2021. In order to get confirmed, we need to see the 1D MA50 hold here and that should give it a boost to a new High.
A break below though, will most likely seek the Support of the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) in order to accumulate more buyers, as it has been doing since February 2021.
In any case McDonalds are for sure bad for your health but can be great owning their stock in your portfolio.
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What's real?All that glitters is not gold.
These are the main indices for the US economy. Don't trust them blindly.
I am just repeating something I posted quite some time ago. You have two pockets, one full of USD, one full of stocks. As a trader you fill each one and empty the other one, when you feel that it is worth it. If half the money is in USD and half invested in stocks, what is the damage to the US economy this last year? And more specifically, the damage of the liquid part of the economy.
Answer: Absolutely zero. Why? Because this "recession" we lived thorough doesn't look like what it looks like.
For decades we took energy, food, health and peace for granted. In a split second we had to start thinking differently.
The same goes for investing, the same goes for trading.
There is this saying, that if you invent a revolutionary trading method and it is successful, when everyone picks it up and applies it, the market absorbs the effect, thus breaking it. You can't fix a problem if you are INSIDE the problem. If you want to look at the US economy, you have to look it from outside.
This chart does something like that. You could measure DJI in Euro or Yen. You could just measure it in an average-of-all-other-currencies currency. I obsess with this transformation. If you measure USOIL in Yen, you will see an immense problem. If you just look at USOIL measured in dollars, everything is peaceful.
If we all believe that DJI is the measure of the strength of the economy, then it isn't. I am oversimplifying. I also won't say that just this multiplication will solve our problems. I just want to point out that the real picture is blurred with all these modern methods and the famous indices.
A handful of companies own most of the worldwide wealth. A handful of people in reality... This is not a conspiracy, it is the Pareto Distribution which is one of nature's fundamentals. They could, in theory and in practice, manipulate the economy at will.
Why am I saying that? Because the smaller companies of SPX were hurt compared to the blue-chips. These charts show just that. Throughout this year, the big ones didn't get hurt at all. And their price movement? Curiously similar to the normalized chart. Did anything happen to Apple, Amazon, Google, Tesla, McDonalds? Nada.
Blue: DXY*DJI/100
Orange: MCD
Blue: DXY*SPX/100
Orange: AAPL
I am not trying to say that these two companies manipulate the economy. But surely Apple, the biggest company in US, is so heavy that its steps feel like earthquake to us.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
McDonald's Breaks Out 2.78%After a 9-month waiting period, McDonald’s has finally created new all-time highs.
The previous all-time high was back in January this year at $271.
Following that, price then went into a range between $217 and $271 and managed
to pick up enough momentum this past week to force a breakout from consolidation.
Our task now is to confirm whether this is a fake breakout or the beginning of a
long-term trend. The way we confirm this as being the start of a trend is by waiting
patiently on the sidelines.
We need to wait for a pattern of higher highs and higher lows to develop, which is
usually a sign of a bullish trend. That will give us the confidence that McDonald’s
is embarking on the next leg of the bull trend.
Waiting will not cause us to miss out because once the confirmation is set, then
we can aggressively compound and maximise our profit on the way up.
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If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment!
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Mikkey D's like a rock. MCDFlat formation. Some visible divergences. Anyway, looking more appealing than fast food.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
McDonald's MCD - I'm Lovin' Selling, and You Should be tooYou don't see just how highly priced McDonald's still is unless you look at it on the Monthly:
I mean, this is the place that sells faux-food while CPI and PPI are through the roof, and it's still trading almost at its all time high. This is even more ridiculous than the positioning of Apple AAPL:
Apple AAPL - Looks Fine on the Outside, but Tastes Weird
And Tesla TSLA:
Tesla TSLA - The Canary in the Coal Mine
On top of that, this is one of the thirty companies that compose the Dow, which is the most bearish of all indexes, having already retested the pre-COVID highs, which SPX and Nasdaq have yet to do.
The bottom line for everyone's least favourite, but most convenient, fast food dumpster fire is that the June --> August price action, was, like Apple, just a gap fill.
And now, it's time to seek new lows. And those lows happen to be, conservatively, in the $245 range.
This is a fat put if you buy puts, but a "my calls expired worthless so at least I can sob about my drawdown on Reddit" scenario for Robinhood's retail fodder.
I can only encourage everyone who is still long on equities to get out this week. I truly believe that we are going to see a bounce that traps bears short but snares bulls long:
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws
With a looming VIX 72 (hasn't done much since COVID! It's two years! It's due! Be careful!) hanging overhead.
VIX - 9x8 = 72
What lies ahead, after the trap has been executed, will come fast, and viciously, and it will seem as if the world is ending. If you buy when it's high because you are still thinking to yourself that this is the old paradigm, you're going to lose at least one finger, and probably three.
This world is not one where you can use magic to regrow what's lost, you know?
And so what I want to say is that you should protect what you have. If you can't get short, if you can't trade puts, then get cash heavy and reduce your risk.
Ultimately, what's important in life is not money, which when you die you leave behind. It is maintaining your kindness. It is harbouring your virtue.
This isn't moral dogma, unless you make it moral dogma. The path through the storm is to do better in your life. Been neglecting family? Fix it.
Been a bad father? Fix it.
Been a bad boss? Buy the secretary flowers and tell her that she's doing a great job. Make sure you mean it. You aren't such a bad guy. Make sure you mean it. Try your best.
One day, in this lifetime, when the Chinese Communist Party falls, you'll instantly understand what I am referring to.
Don't leave yourself with regrets on that day. That day is too late. You have to figure it out and do well before that day.
It's just like poker, where you have to place your bets before the cards are face up. It doesn't count anymore after the cards are face up.
MICRO CAD/USD FUTURES (MCD1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 0.7696
Pivot: 0.7645
Support : 0.7559
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price trendline and moving below the ichimoku indicator,we have a bearish bias that price may drop from pivot at 0.7645 where the swing low support is. Should price break pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 0.7559 where the1st support and 100% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 0.7696 in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: During the Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Powell indicated that more rate hikes were coming and that the Feds could continue lifting rates sharply for some time as it combats to bring inflation towards its target level, which made DXY strengthened and gained against all the other currencies.