Page 12 | MCX — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Silver with a bull start of 2015 Silver(07.01.2015) remain very quite for more than 2 months & traded in range. However this range bound trading came with some surprising moves which plotting the future movement story most probably. Fundamental remains very weak for silver from last few months, gold with bad performance in 2014 kept pressure on silver as well as slowdown in leading manufacturing economy china slashes silver demand as industrial metal. With a positive start of 2015 from gold & a major expectation of QE from china , japan & europe together could provide a supportive ambiance for this metal. Coming to the technical picture, Silver trading at $16.35 while i am writing this & as we can see on chart in December 2014 silver made a low around $14 mark & bounce same day with some extra volume. This move almost tested the 261.8% fibonacci retracement level of last upside move. This move also provided a strong positive divergence on charts as well as a falling volume under consolidation period suggest absence of sellers on current level. Thus a combination of bounce from lower trendline of long term descending channel & a most possible inside bullish channel hinting for a recovery ahead. Area around $17.70 & then $18.70 could be targeted in coming trading session. SILVER MCX has same story like comex silver still on mcx charts, silver looks more comfortable , probably due to INR movement. A strong black cloud cover candle with great volume & follow up by a consolidation period with thin volume. RSI generating a positive divergence . Silver also broken above a descending trendline & currently following a minor upside channel. This technical setup suggest for a bounce ahead to retest the previous high around 39000 & then may be 41000 in coming trading session. At the end time will tell us the true story. Best of luck. Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us Call Us : 088890 34986 www.mantracommodity.blogspot.in

Natural gas consolidation likely to continue.Natural gas (03.12.2014) made high round $4.6 on unexpected cold front in November month while upcoming mild weather forecast forced trader to book profit on higher levels. On fundamental side, mild weather in US expected to continue for coming 2 weeks & will put more pressure on prices. On other hand current inventory level of natural gas is 3432 bcf which is down by 400bcf compare to 5 year average. Inventory forecast for this week is -51 while 5 year average withdrawal is -17. These inventory level might help natural gas prices to hold above current year low. Now natural gas is trading around $3.772 & as we can see on charts, natural gas once again came below the long term descending trendline running from 2013 high of $5.475. Technical picture suggest for more downside move towards previously broken support & then towards 2014 low at $3.611. However the volume associated with this move is quite low & thus this move could be temporary. Mcx natural gas trading at 235.50 mark while i am writing. Mcx natural gas has almost same story , keep falling after putting a temporary high of 281 while falling continue on mild weather forecast. From technical aspect break below support trendline & 61.8% fibonacci retracement suggest for more weakness ahead. Most possibly natural gas can fill the contract gap ( 229-223.5) on charts. It will be very interesting to watch when the gap will be filled & winter will arrive again. Based on above studies, we will prefer to sell natural gas on some rise for mention downside targets in coming trading session. Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. Our blog - www.mantracommodity.blogspot.in visit www.mantracommodity.blogspot.in

Swiss gold referendum - A bear trap ???Gold (01.12.2014) reverse from $1207 mark which we mention as first resistance for bulls. However fall from mention level should taken as correction or profit booking but swiss gold referendum added more fuel & created panic selling. Now gold is trading around $1275 & we have witness a sharp bounce from recent low $1142 made just after a NO answer from swiss gold referendum. The bounce producing a major among trader that how actually this NO going to react. Here is the most possible answer. Swiss gold referendum YES would force swiss banks to buy tonnes of gold to increase the gold holding from 8% to 20% but a NO answer is actually not going to change anything for gold normal trading. The panic selling come in first trading session was not supported by volume (see chart), while the NO answer avoided the immediate buying from swiss banks but now it is mandate for central bank to buy gold from open market or off market. Coming to technical picture, gold made a low of $1142 & now trading above $1169 which represent the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of last upside move till $1207. A stability above this mark with volume & a very positive divergence on day chart suggest that gold already digested swiss result & a technical upside move will continue for coming trading session. A break above $1207 will provide more strength & we may witness a quick move towards $1247. MCX GOLD traded lower with spot gold however the correction more deeper due to removal of 80:20 rule by indian government & low volume. Still on technical front gold was able sustain above previous low. This particular move forming a double bottom pattern which is well supported by positive divergence as shown in the chart. Channel resistance situated around 26780 & if this is broken we may witness a sharp move 26900 & more. Swiss gold referendum could prove a big bear trap if above technical picture stay alive. Best of luck Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us Call Us : 088890 34986

Gold broken major resistance Gold(17.11.2014) moved higher in last week on profit booking as well as on challenging fundamental growth of major economy. However branching the strong resistance zone with volume could change long term scenario. Now gold is trading around $1187 & we can see on charts, friday gold rally more than 3% & provided a closing above $1182-1172 resistance which where able to stop gold momentum many times. Technically after breaking $1180 mark gold made a low of $1131 while unable to close below $1138 mark which represent the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This area was very close to the lower trendline of current descending channel too. An elliott wave bearish pattern completion also suggest for 3 corrective wave pattern ahead. On fundamental side, upcoming swiss bank referendum on 30th nov could play major role for gold price. A voting result in favor of swiss referendum will force swiss banks to buy big quantity of gold which will never come back in market for liquidation. Based on above studies , there is a major probability that gold will provide a corrective move towards support zone & then move upside for possible targets around $1207 & then $1225 atleast. A day close below $1272 will delay the forecast. Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us Call Us : 088890 34986 MCX levels -> S2(26160) S1(26300) cmp(26425) R1(26650) R2(27000) www.mantracommodity.blogspot.in

Corrective bounce ahead Crude (12.9.2014) fall sharply in last few weeks & reach to the $90 sociological level. Now crude is trading around $92.40 & the bounce $90 mark is well supported by many factors like 261.8% feb ret. , a lower tradeline of descending channel as well as a very strong positive divergence. All this together providing a buying opportunity at current level. On fundamental side , continue demand for sanction on russia putting a dent on crude production future. Based on above studies , crude possibly move towards $94.80 & then $96.50. a day close below $89.50 will delay the forecast. MCX -> S2(5550) S1(5550) cmp(5678) R1(5740) R2(5833) Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us Call Us : 088890 34986