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Meanreversion

AUDJPY SHORT (Mean Reversion)Confluences: 1: Stop loss hunt at previous high on weekly level plus a breakout. 2: Price heading towards high of the June(2021) which is an important supply zone with many retail stops. 3: Price has been moving very quickly which signals an over extended market for the pair. Summary: Price is currently over extended and has been moving in a up trend for 2 almost weeks straight. We are looking for a potential stop hunt at the high of June where many retail stops may be sitting. We might see a further push to the upside at the new weeks open. There's is a potential for strong mean revision to take place allowing big players to hunt some stops and grab some liquidity before we see a continuation to the upside in a few weeks to come. This trade is expected run for the next 8-9 trading days or until the target is reached, whichever comes first. Always remember to Buy to the low and Sell the high. We will be looking for any entries early next week. Remember to always buy the low and sell the high.
Short
by NDOBObanks
Diversify your strategyThe holy grail of diversification is to find several uncorrelated asset classes all with positive returns. One problem, though, is that diversified passive investing has caused all asset classes to become more and more correlated over time. Increasingly, you see stocks, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies all move together. One approach to diversification that's increasingly popular with quants is to diversify your strategies rather than your asset classes . Long-short strategies are a popular example. Almost by definition, your short strategies will make money when your long strategies lose money, and vice versa. The challenge of making this work is that it's really hard to design short strategies with positive expected return. Since the market tends to go up over time, playing the market short is a bit like betting against the house at a casino. If you find a short strategy that actually works, that's gold right there. Fortunately, there are some relatively uncorrelated strategies that work for long-only traders. This chart shows the Invesco "Momentum" and "Pure Value" ETFs. As you can see from the red and green arrows, the two ETFs often move in opposite directions. When one is producing positive returns, the other often isn't. Owning both can help smooth out your drawdowns and returns. The same can be said for "mean-reversion" and "trend-following" strategies. Mean-reversion strategies involve buying assets that have made a big move downward. If you bought China stocks after their recent huge-selloff, that was a mean-reversion trade. Trend-following strategies, by contrast, involve buying assets that have made a big move upward. If you've bought oil and gas stocks in recent weeks, that was a trend-following trade. Both strategies tend to "work," but again, they're somewhat uncorrelated. These strategies can further be broken down into short-term and long-term versions. Oil and gas is in a short-term uptrend, while the Nasdaq index is in a long-term uptrend. Facebook and Bristol-Myers Squibb are a short-term mean-reversion candidates after their recent sell-offs, while Calavo Growers and Regis Corporation are long-term mean-reversion candidates. The nice thing about using a mixture of short-term and long-term signals is that they allow you both to profit from stable market conditions and to quickly pivot at least some of your capital when market conditions change.
MEducation
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Idea: How to "wait and see" before jumping into this tradeCurrently watching TSLA because of the hype over Q3 earnings (to be announced). About this setup: - Investment horizon: Medium term (i.e 2 weeks to a month). - Timeframe: Daily chart - Strategy used for backtesting: Mean Reversion (ATR) Strategy Idea: Using Price by Volume Histogram to find current support. Also, we want to mimic the initial point of entry signalled by the Mean Reversion (ATR) Strategy algorithm. Scenario: Price is currently 843; should have entered at 733 following the algorithm. It's too late now, but still waiting to enter the trade. Setup: Using the built-in volume profile tool, set the range starting from the hypothetical point of entry (Sept. 20) extending it up to the current bar (Oct. 15). The red line is the POC developed over time. In theory, it approximates the moving average of price weighted by volume. This arguably provides more meaningful information compared to simple/exponential moving averages because (a) it takes volume into account, and (b) and it sticks to the defined fixed range of period drawn on chart. Other points to note: - 70% of the price distribution is between 762-816 (non-transparent area of histogram); price is currently above, so we assume TSLA is overbought. - the discrepancy between current price and red line is due to lack of volume. If more buyers come in, the histogram will be skewed upward (actually to the left, if looking from correct side), and the red line (POC) will also rise up. - POC has been horizontal at 780 since period of consolidation that began on Sept 28. We define this as the area of support. - POC stands for "point of control", it's the longest bar of the histogram. Stage 1: Do nothing. Just wait. Stage 2: Enter at area of support. - Scenario 1: later, if price rises to 860 (i.e as per 12month target price set by analysts at Goldman) => Tighten your trailing stop loss and/or start taking profits. - Scenario 2: later, if hits stoploss placed below area of support during a selloff => Accept the loss, wouldn't be surprised if we revisit prior supports ranging between 680-720 Other notes: - there are at least 8 analysts covering TSLA; their targets range between 120 to 1200. (Source: NASDAQ ER summary ) We used GS's 860. - this is not an investment advice, it's just a thought process
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by DojiEmoji
1
Situational Fluency | Are Markets Favorable For My Strategy?You may have heard the adage, make hay while the sun shines. In market terms, we might translate this to ... make (the most) money when conditions are favorable for your strategy. The recent increased volatility yesterday, and last Monday 9/20, also increase the probability that range days will follow. In this video, I take a look at a VWAP Bands strategy (Stay IN Your Lane) that does very well under these conditions. The primary indicator for the strategy shown in the video is called " VWAP Stdev Bands v2 Mod UPDATE" and is available in the public library on TradingView.
CME_MINI:MESZ2021
by RodCasilli
4
API3: Trend Continuation Analysis with TargetsAPI3 appearing to find support on well correlated uptrend. Anticipating support at -2 standard deviations (SD) below regression trend mean to hold. Watching for either a mean reversion, break above, and retest for bullish confirmation or break below -2 SD for exit. Analysis: Price Currently price action is ranging between $4.75 resistance corresponding well the POC for volume profile (blue line), and $3.99 support level just above Fib 23.6% retracement pulled from ATH to local low. Pink dashed lines on chart are areas of significant support/resistance as determined through analysis of multiple fibonacci pulls or simple S/R identification. RSI RSI currently sitting at neutral level of 51 needs to stay above 38, ideally looking for a cross and close above 55 in the next day or two for confirmation for bullish continuation. ADX/DI Increasing bullish trend though weakening slightly MACD MACD still in bullish territory above zero line. Though it appears to be nose-diving with a trajectory towards a zero-line cross, price action appears to be diverging from this move downward and MACD is starting to curl up. The trade: Entry: $4.17 TP1: $6.00 TP2: $7:00 Stop (Mental w/ alerts): $3.779 RR: 4.7 An ascending triangle has been drawn using the -2 SD of linear regression trend and the POC of volume profile/resistance. Watching for bullish breakout of this triangle. If PA breaks down out of the triangle I will be watching for support at stop-loss area at $3.779. This stop will be a mental stop-loss with alerts as I will want to see a Daily candle close below this before exiting trade to avoid getting whipsawed. If price closes below stop, trade will be exited and will reevaluate entry watching for support from identified areas (dashed pink lines). -Spreck
Long
by spreck
1
HUT Daily AnalysisComing up to a key supply zone. Two possibilities can come from this. Either the price breaks above and, ideally retesting resistance and support, runs to test higher levels. or The broader market seems some pressure and this level is rejected causing the price to retrace to the 200 SMA, and if that can't hold then the demand zone below. Waiting for confirmation will help you pick a direction early on in the rally. This can be found in the form of a break and retest for an upside breakout, or a bearish divergence from a mean reversion trade. Setting up this trade with a profit factor of 2.0 or greater makes it statistically efficient to trade.
NASDAQ:HUT
by portfoliokingsllc
Take-off for UAL but it could be a dangerous flightUAL recently smacked a support level at around $48 and seems it could possible rebound to the upside. However there is very major catalysts for UAL to further within the coming weeks. Covid is still relentless as always and with the new 'Delta variant' proving to be more adaptive, and dangerous it could potentially impact the already suffering fundamentals of the airline industry. One thing going against the virus is the current vaccine rollout which is currently on par with expectations. This could then act as a buffer for UAL despite the new developing strains such as the delta and lambda variants. As its currently summer in the US as expected flights have been increasing and interestingly enough even bet pre-Covid levels which is great news for UAL and other airlines. From a technical standpoint indicators push a bullish narrative with the Bollinger bands, rsi and mean reversion being oversold signalling a buy opportunity. Alot of support levels also were prominent where there was support level from the 32.8% Fibonacci level, linear regression aswell as the 180 day sma. Overall it appears like UAL has momentum to launch from its current price, possibly to $53 prior to hitting a resistance channel. However due to the nature of the company negative news sentiment will be very influentially on the stocks price so be wary.
NASDAQ:UALLong
by Mikey_Scali
LTCUSD Fibonacci Retracement LevelLTCUSD. Ideal entry is at the 0.382 Fibonacci Level. The Pin Bar close near that level. There was a gap that occurred on July 8, 2021 at 03:00. The gap represented horizontal support resistance level. Price closed in the area of the EMA 10 EMA 20. Price closed below diagonal trend level and retested that diagonal level as new resistance. Confluence: Diagonal Trend Line Level Gap (Horizontal Support Resistance Line Level) Fibonacci Retracement Level EMA 10 Dynamic Support Resistance Level EMA 20 Dynamic Support Resistance Level Pin Bar at Lower High
KRAKEN:LTCUSDShort
by TradeLive-
[Positional] Bharat Forge Long & Short BetBuy if breaks above : based on bullish Flag theory Sell if breaks below : Based on mean reversion theory Note - One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all. ======= I use shorthands for my trades. "Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.) "Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day. "Theta" , Trade Setup based on option Decay ! ======= I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share. ======= Like - Always follow a stop loss. In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High". In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings. =======
NSE:BHARATFORG
by ShivamMendhare
BTC likely has a technical bounce likely coming. but from where?Want to draw your attention to the purple line. the cpr or central pivot zone. notice how price reverts either direct to strike these levels reguardless if price continues or reverses. This same thing happens on daily cprs, weekly, and monthy cpr with over a 90% rate of occurance. This chart is projecting the future weekly levels. it is possible that the reversion happens prior to the close. or following... likely from the coming L3 which right now is at 31k These types of bounces reguardless of how frequent are hard to play because the developing or "next level" s they are labelled on the chart is hard to be sure of before they are set in stone. That being said dca is a possible stradegy. Currenly the incoming cpr levels are 2 to 4k higher than this price point. So I would expect a bounce from these regions or 30 / 31.5 up the where the new central pivot is formed upon the weekly close.
by Gunslinger2005
5
EOS eosusdt monthly camarilla pivotsDaily chart. with monthly cam pivots. So long as it can bounce off of or hold above the monthly L3. It might be a good entry position after some long consolidation. It is worth noting that the weekly stop loss level for those wanting a stop loss (aka level L4) is around 4.28. For those who want to run a tighter risk reward trade Also a wide cpr and untested monthly pivot shows hints of a higher possibility that the price may range instead of simply tank from here
Long
by Gunslinger2005
Ethereum 05/13/21, Mean Reversion studyThis is a really simple (almost too simple) way of predicting the most likely number of candles before a revisit to a certain level, presuming no outside factors increase the required sample of study. I have just tried to predict very specific candle positions and times as well as the bottom, but this is only for the extreme near future (ie, the easiest to predict), past that it becomes harder unless you reduce your precision several factors. This is an ideal situation where there is a clear median that it has clung to, and the standard deviations are very obvious and apparent. Note: I am only counting candle bodies, not wicks. edit: I also made the highlight before the current hour while I was writing this it seems to agree with me so far.
Education
by rubyatmidnight