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Measuredmove

Gold Cup and Handle target estimatesEveryone is talking about gold and silver making massive Cup and Handles but I haven't seen many measured move estimates. We are just about to touch the brim resistance with a possible consolidation before the break out and major moves up being. Trying to estimate measured move targets give me an estimate move to $26k (+24%)before a pull back. Maybe a retest but I have doubts. Then measuring the bowl to break out gives an estimate of $40k (+90%)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KondrackiKarl
Measured Move Time Price ProjectionWhen the former Soviets roll over Ukraine you can expect the measured move depicted IMO. Maybe you don't care to play shorts, but think carefully about holding longs. might not be prudent at this juncture, eh? NB: An expedited closed FOMC meeting is scheduled for Monday 14 Feb: www.federalreserve.gov Advanced Notice of a Meeting under Expedited Procedures It is anticipated that the closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:30 a.m. on Monday, February 14, 2022, will be held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 261b.7 of the Board's Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board's offices at 20th Street and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C.. The following items of official Board business are tentatively scheduled to be considered at that meeting. Meeting Date: Monday, February 14, 2022 Matter(s) to be Considered: 1. Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
6
Potential 10x Move stetting up on SHIBA INUThanks for reading all my previous Analysis. Today I am looking and also bought into SHIBA potential BULL RUN for a longer term. This is my personal speculative opinion and not an investment advice.Obviously there are potential possibilities of huge gains and managed losses.Always have a calculative risk if that is the only edge you can start your trading career with.It put you in the driving sit. Delving into SHIBA Inu technicals on the last few event that has happened. The SHIBA INU has retraced almost 88.6% of it's potential value from the high it posted on 28 October 2021(2 days after my birthday) of value 0.00007906 to the low of around 0.00001704. That above statement is a bargain already in the crypto market and that is the volatility swing that the cryptomarket suffer based on my experience trading and watching this market.And if something looses almost 90% value then it becomes attractive to deal finders and unattractive to the novice investors.Remember the popular quote you have to be greedy when others are fearful that there is no value in these and started dumping and then you now decide to accumulate and be greedy at their lowest deadened emotion is a way to play the trading and investing game successfully. Therefore after such decline,the SHIBA has now technically given us a huge impulsive move above 61.8% of it's last swing down which is my 2nd fib on the chart.According to a fibonacci measured move theory that brings in the advent of the new bull runs and that is the MAIN REASON why I will like you to get involve in this for the long term and acquire SHIBA at the right time and wait for couple of months or even weeks. Based on the last cycle, it took SHIBA around about 144days of consolidation from its inception to decline and just about 23days to hit a new high on it's last bull run. Currently the last Decline has taken about 97 Days and a new BULLISH TONE has now emerged and been part of this will let us identify how long it will take to reach at least separate targets of 0.00005 to 0.00007 to 0.000011 and eventually 0.000013 as a conservative target. The MEME coin can post a much larger gain and attain 10cent in the near future as it is community driven.
by LukmanBalogun
1
Long term S&P500 OutlookThis is just an idea that I am posting that may or may not pan out. It is not financial or investment advice. I am definitely not saying this is the way forward but as I was tinkering one night, I somehow came up with this, and the more I looked at it, the more it made sense. Using trend lines we have a potential rising wedge. Then I measured some fibs and copied a previous pattern to fit the PA that one might expect to happen in a rising wedge. I also added a trend-based fib extension. As you can see there is a measured move in the final wave to a -.236 which also aligns with the 1.618 from the fib extension. If this is indeed a rising wedge then we will see a choppy path over the 2020s upward until eventually, the bias would favor a massive crash or bear market. You can also see the potential pivot points based on ABCD measured move series would align well with October/November of election cycle years. This isn't a statement about who will win or anything but election cycles also mark budget cycles ie; fiscal policy so they tend to be natural pivots or continuations based on the flavor of the day. Will it pan out like this or similar to this? I guess we'll have to wait a few years to see.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSniper00
TAP Measured Move to $55 Reading chart from left to right: TAP went through a bear phase from June to September of 2021 and an accumulation phase from September to December 2021. We saw the first impulse out of the accumulation phase with it's punch to $52 and it did a classic 50% retracement to $48. We're seeing upward momentum in February which is signaling that there's potential for another measured move to $55. There's potential to go higher with a strong earnings report on Feb 24th. I'm playing this trend move with an at the money call expiring March 18th. What's really nice is that the ATM Call option is relatively inexpensive ($1.40) and a move to $55 should yield ~80% returns.
NYSE:TAPLong
by NAOptionsTrader
BTC: Where is the bottom?In this chart, I take a look at the chart from the perspective of measured moves and where likely algo supports and resistances are likely to be found. I measured out several FIBs from 0 to the previous few tops and from the March 2020 bottom to the previous few tops. When doing this you can see a very clear pattern of similar FIB groups ie; .382s in a range, .5s in a range, .618s in a range, etc. As you can also clearly see during this large move down, the price is generally stepping down to these fibs after having ranged for several days or weeks. The space between the .5s and .618s is the typical reversal zone in a measured move. When trading you want to look for reduced risk trades. Long-term traders and investors will want to look at entry 1 as a range to build their first position and entry 2 as a zone to double their entry 1 position. (Another option is now starting DCA or dollar-cost averaging) The profit-taking zone is the -.236 which gives us a range of $79K-85K. With a stop of around $24K we have an excellent reduced risk trade set up that is between 3 to 1 and 4 to 1. IF the stop hits, we are likely going to be going much much further down and we all get rekt. Currently, we have just entered the .5 fib zone. Based on recent PA, I would expect us to range here for at least a few days if not weeks. If we end up bouncing, I expect the .382 to act as resistance. I believe we will eventually end up hitting the golden zone, which is the space between the .618s and the .65s. It may be a choppy ride until we get there. The described trade setup might have a person in the unrealized red for an extended period of time on entry 1 before bottoming at entry 2. Based on my traditional indicators, it appears that we could be in for a short-term bounce to the .382. The monthly chart is not the most favorable to the bulls imo and suggests more down or a prolonged sideways chop. If this is a hard bounce from the .5 range we should expect to see a pretty aggressive series of measured moves or fib extensions and will become pretty obvious that the .618 won't be hit and you can ladder out of your position on smaller time frame MMs to even further reduce risk and end up with the holy grail free trade. This trade may take months to play out but could take years. This is not investment advice. This is a setup I will likely take myself but I am currently holding off until we get through the January FOMC meeting and potential Russian-Ukraine war (which I believe is FUD).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by StockSniper00
3
IWM: The most interesting chart in the world: As of Friday (Jan 21) IWM has fallen out of a long range of distribution, produced both daily and weekly closes outside the trading range, and importantly has the potential to produce a large move. In this piece we discuss the trading range, mostly from a Wyckoff perspective, show multiple ways to start thinking about how far the move might progress, and finally take a look at IWM in terms of its strength relative to the higher quality SPX. Again, there is not a trading recommendation attached to these observations. The CMT course offers an excellent way to learn more about the concepts discussed below. 1) The most important chart feature is the trading range. Long trading ranges represent zones where supply and demand move into balance. a. Ranges are zones where strong hands / smart money accumulate new shares if they are bullish, or distribute existing shares if they are bearish. b. In early November price attempted to break out of the top of the range, but failed. In Wyckoff terms this is known as a terminal upthrust. The failure is bearish and confirmed the view that the range represented distribution. c. The upthrust was followed by a high volume decline back to the lower bound. The volume expansion and solid thrust strongly suggested that price was likely to break out of the trading range. d. There was some buying as the market tested the bottom of the range for the last time (note the very low volume bounce). My interpretation is that traders who had repeatedly bought the trading range lows, tried to buy again. They failed to recognize the significance of the upthrust and of the development of high volume in the days just prior. Now they are trapped. 2) On Friday, price fell through the range lows, trapping longs and accelerating lower on high volume. 3) Was the volume high enough to exhaust the immediately available supply? I would think not. Modern selling climaxes often take multiple days to unfold, and are not likely to occur this soon after falling out of a long zone of distribution. Remember, the long range attracted many weak handed buyers who are now being forced to liquidate. Targets: 1) There are several ways to think about move objectives. The simplest is to run a Fibonacci retracement of the March 2020 low to the November 2021 high. I keep it simple. I look at .382, .500 and .618. 2) Note that the 50% retracement of the entire move is very close to the January 2020 high pivot. The two form a support confluence in the 169 zone. Given the amount of distribution that occurred in the trading range, I think its more likely that the .618% retracement @ 152 is the most likely one. 3) When a correction develops you will be able to use the TradingView trend based Fib extension tool to project additional targets. Its likely that those targets, combined with the retracement tool and more traditional chart analysis will provide support confluences to work with. Point and Figure charts also provide insight. They don't get nearly the respect of Fib points, but they deserve it. I tend to use the Fibo points as my references, but sometimes, a solid PF range count can add insight. Wyckoff and others taught that the length of time spent in the consolidation is related directly to the distance of the subsequent move. Trading ranges are areas of the chart where large amounts of shares change hands, often from strong hands to weak hands. This is why there is a relationship between the length of the range and the size of the move. 1. Granted, there is no end to the debate as to what points should be used to define the counts. Since I'm a simple guy, I keep it simple. 2. In this case the width of the range is notable. A conservative target falls in the 145 area while a more aggressive accounting measures as deep as 121. So I have targets, what do I do now? 1. I think its enough to know that the targets are all much lower. As the trade progresses the chart will produce more support and resistance zones, target and objectives that will help to narrow the range of outcomes. 2. The final point is that, particularly in the case of point and figure charts, objectives are more guides than they are precise points. When available P&F counts are extremely useful in determining risk/reward in a trade. In the shorter run, the market broke out of its trading range on Friday with a solid daily/weekly thrust lower. But now, in the shortest perspectives it is deeply oversold. If the market does rally, the character of the rally is likely be corrective. I like to look for bear flags or pennants or a rally back to the underside of the broken trading range before the market rolls over again. Final Point: I was always taught to buy the strongest names/groups in uptrends and to sell the weakest names/groups in downtrends. IWM has clearly been weaker than SPX for a number of months. The top panel is IWM, the middle panel is the SPX and the bottom panel is the ratio between the two. If the market is setting up a major correction IWM probably will be far weaker than SPX. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Editors' picks
AMEX:IWMEducation
by CMT_Association
52
JICPT| I got the move from 4.85 to 4.63 for SGDCNH!Hello everyone. It's been almost 11 months since I posted the idea titled 'Bearish view on SGDCNH(potential low 4.63)'. You can refer to the linked idea below. Yep, I'm right about the direction and move. SGDCNH fell sharply by move then 2000bps since I published the idea. I can see the downtrend line is still well respected. Price seems to be consolidated for a while before making the decision. By measuring the move, the big fall has come to an end. SGDCNH is likely to rebound, however I need to see the confirmation on the chart. As the inflation is going up, I don't think SG government will let the SGD depreciate further. The weakening SGD will hurt the purchasing power of the folks there.
Long
by JICPT
Do We Short Yet?!?NO!! It's gone Ape-S**TT!!! Melting Up; Short here = Suicide. Could get a Measured MOVE from the Breakout point 4593; +249 push to 4842?!? Watch these Indicators for a pivot. Near-term Short entry for a technical pullback at WT crossover when RSI overbought and a 5-wave EW in RSI appears; NOT before! Do not hold this short for long term, purely a day trade from Nov ATH price pushback, roll into longs when WT signals! Expect Strong R at the ATH 4744; then moving higher to new ATH: likely get firm pushback after an exhaustion gap appears; perhaps 12/08 the way it moves will arrive in a few hours, fgs, FOMC dovish position could spark final ATH move. This is not investment advice! Estimates given are not guaranteed to be valid projections, trade at your own risk and with great care!! GLTA!!
SP:SPXLong
by DaddySawbucks
11
BULLISH DESCENDING WEDGE PATTERN NEAR COMPLETION?In a broadening wedge a descending megaphone pattern is characterized by five reversals, up-down-up-down-up, each swing is wider but price is constrained within the wedge pattern, without break below lower TL. The finishing move is a crushing bearish move to the lower TL. Price came down to 200 DMA. Will it hold? Wayyy Oversold! The pattern is a bullish reversal continuation, and implies further price advance by measured move equal to the extent of decline, added to the upper TL at breakout point. Went off -230, add +230 to breakout price, estimating upper TL at 4610, yields target price 4840 in December. Amazing things been happening here, remember, just over a month ago price was 4300! Heeeere we goooo agaaaain!! This is definitely not advice, invest and trade at your own risk, >DYODD< GLTA!! TEXT REFERENCE WITH DIAGRAMS: www.centralcharts.com Image for price projection: www.centralcharts.com
TVC:SPXLong
by DaddySawbucks
8
An IPO few are watchingDEN (Denbury Inc) is an oil and gas company that focuses on CO2 enhanced oil recovery. Boring right? I assume that is the reason it has been under the radar, after all, Technology tends to get more attention. Since September 2020, when it IPO'd, DEN has increased by over 300%. There are 2 potential measured moves, one by using the horizontal range transposed on top of the current support (purple arrow), and the extended target (light-blue arrow) by using the ascending triangle pattern. In late June we tested and failed $80 (approximately), since then, we tested the bottom of the horizontal range (purple dashed-line) and are now breaking to all-time highs. Important Note Earning are Thursday 4th before the market opens, so we could experience a volatile move.
DLong
by dorfmanmaster
JICPT| VIX approaching floor indicates spike ahead? Hello everyone. VIX just caught my eye for its floor level of 8.67 on the weekly chart. I applied measured move to guess when the spike might happen roughly. Guess what? It's Aug. next year. Don't take it too serious, nobody knows what will happen then. By measuring the date between the spikes on the weekly chart, I started to realize no matter what things will happen from time to time , especially VIX is running at low, say around or below 10 . It's like a cycle. All my MAs on the daily is going down and the red downtrend lines were well respected. It will support the market to be bullish until VIX couldn't go any lower. It has to rally from the down, terminating the old cycle and starting a new one. What do you think of my chart? Any ideas?
TVC:VIXLong
by JICPT
2
Happy Days are Here Again!Irrational Exuberance! Bad news is good, good news is gooder! The gaps tell all. Measured move from the runaway gap ought to end up around 388 +/- 2 pips. There must be and certainly will be a pullback from a last exhaustion gap, may gap up sometime 1-3 Nov. Fed minutes on 3 Nov may be catalyst for pullback. Likely pivots shown, 1/3 speedline most likely, given extreme fearless bullishness. Can bull anywhere anytime from pullback to any of the levels shown. Not even attempting to guess where this might occur, get ready! Final ATH TBD, might come in Dec for Santa Rally IMO. Would be a 5th of V EW, a monster. The subsequent break in 2022 will be spectacular... Not advice, just A TOOLUSE TUTORIAL... REMEMBER THE TREND IS UR FRIEND TILL THE END AT THE BEND! GLTA!!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by DaddySawbucks
14
USDJPY - SHORTThe price is below the Major Resistance Level. Bearish Harmonic Pattern has been completed. Consider the development of the South Impulse. First target is - POC. USDJPY - SHORT ENTRY PRICE - 114.200 SL - 114.700 TP1 - 113.700 (Breakeven) TP2 - 112.100 Always follow the 6 Golden Rules of Money Management: 1. Protect your gains and never enter into a position without setting a stop loss. 2. Always trade with a Risk-Reward Ratio of 1 to 1.5 or better. 3. Never over-leverage your account. 4. Accept your losses, move on to the next trade and trust the software. 5. Make realistic goals that can be achieved within reason. 6. Always trade with money you can afford to lose. Please leave your comment and support me with like if you agree with my idea. If you have a different view, please also share with me your idea in the comments. Have a nice day!
Short
by Profit_Trader
2