ES short -testing oscillation strategyThis is my wide look at the market, while I am testing usage of TradeStation brokerage on TradingView for the first time, and it is working marvelously!!!
I am building a short of the index using MES, using a quick stop if I am wrong. High R:R trading, but often immediately wrong playing the oscillation at the edges - as that is where new trends are confirmed at the breaking out of the oscillation. I keep doing what works until it doesn't. If it breaks long, I will look at a new trend to the upside and adjust indicators accordingly. We are still currently below the monthly pivot and so near it that you don't get a better price to short this current macro trend should it continue to the downside.
Good trading to you, thanks for following and liking my scripts!
~B3
Measuredmove
SOXX 1 year trendSemiconductors/chips continue to be an essential part of everything around the globe.
For a year, we have maintained an upward trend, which is being tested today.
There are clear outperformers in the industry, but it is clearly been working for all of them as a whole.
When we have touched the trend line in the past, we have had a 50 point gain, which has happened through 2 weeks approximately. That gives us a target of around $505.
DJI in Modest CorrectionGave up 1K pips and entered consolidation zone. Forms pennant on flagpole, probably only halfway down.
Can backtest higher before measured move; or complete a flagpole formation from this pennant.
Price action has been muted; small moves, no huge red days, yet...
Trade at your own risk or just stay out and watch the damned thing. Churning moneypit IMO; GLTA!
ETHBTC: The big move - 0.09 or 0.04?After confirming a symmetrical triangle, the upside target for ETHBTC is around +40% from an upwards breakout to approximately 0.09 for new multi-year highs. The downside target is -32% back to previous resistance and volume support level. While ETHBTC remains in a longer-term bull trend, the likelihood of a break to the upside is more likely, given these triangles are usually continuation patterns. Volume remains low either side of this trade, confirming a large trading gap for a big move to occur.
None the less it's important to remain patient as well as neutral until confirmation of a break up or down. The anticipated breakout zone is based on 75% of the triangle completing, after a minimum three touch-points of support & resistance. A breakout is therefore expected by August 18th, with decreasing volume in the past three months indicating a significant move is likely to happen. Along with ETHUSD chart patterns, ETHBTC is a trading pair that also often meeting it's measured move targets (and beyond):
Watch out any any bear trap based fake-outs from these triangle patterns, as was the case with Bitcoin recently:
In a bull trend with a symmetrical triangle, it's better to trade long not short. Probability is your friend.
TSM breakout + measured move The chart shows a descending triangle, with a breakout.
The breakout yesterday and today, have been on strong intraday volume.
A measured move can be made by adding the height from the double bottom (purple circles), to the area of the breakout. Using the green arrows to represent the potential move, which takes us to $152 approximately. Which is coincident with the extended move of the fibonacci retracement lines at 61.8%.
$135 and $142 are potential resistance zones, where we could see some profit taking.
Amazon technical target --> $5000Amazon has been consolidating for almost 10 months.
Today's news of a big beat on earnings and guidance has taken us to the top of the consolidation range.
It is a classic move for stocks that have been consolidating for a long time, to make a strong move upward before consolidating again.
Making a measured move from the last time it did this, we get a potential target around $5000 in a 4-5 months time-frame.
To avoid a failed breakout, I would keep on eye on the MACD trend, which has turned positive, but should continue to rise to confirm the move up.
Long consolidation breakoutIt is a common move for stocks/ETF's that have been consolidating for a long time, to make a strong move upward before consolidating again.
Amazon has been consolidating for about 12 months now.
Breakout is with 100% more intraday volume, than its 10-day average.
Targets
Target 1 is a measured move by drawing the 12-month consolidation period.
Target 2 is a potential move based on the uptrend from april 2020, up to the consolidation.
Measured Support in the up & downs of #ES_FShowing some trendline support along with measured moves hitting on the short side.
Next leg up is a decent bet with the angles of the trendlines still green and the market in oscillation.
It is important to realize that in an oscillating market, measured moves hit all the time.
Should a solid and lengthy trend develop, the MM's will fail with price blowing past them.
Conversely in trendy markets, the MM's would be huge, but when oscillation takes over the MM"s never come close to hitting for a short time.
Programming notes:
My algorithm is finished!
I have 4 scripts off of the idea so far with 2 possibly 3 to go.
I want to get them all done so people can save on access costs through bundling.
Expect late June to early July for access to these amazing new indicators.
Shown:
B3 MEASURED MOVES TRIANGLE (Measures moves then projects them in triangulation)
B3 AUTO-DRAW (Automatically paints valid-only TRENDLINES, FRACTALS or ZIGZAG)
BTCUSD - Outlook UpdateGuys I have cleared my charts and had a simpler look at Bitcoin from an Elliott Wave perspective, with my limited knowledge and have come to an analysis of what I anticipate as a result of the more recent price action. Bitcoin has completed 4 of the 5 legs of the bearish triangle. ABC and D Legs have been completed and we now wait on the E Leg, which is taking quite some time to form. Since May 29th the E Leg has been trading up to sideways on the 4 hour chart. So far price has completed a minor abc correction from the May 29th low of 33395.80 ending at the current high at 38832.05. Leg E appears to be shaping up as a possible zig zag leg. It is our anticipation that price would give us a measured move up into the 100% Fib Expansion or the Fibonacci measurement of wave:A from wave:B arriving at 40116.80, which would complete the E Leg and this would be considered an overthrow of the E Leg. I have also added some time projections which line up with the 40116.80 target between June 2nd and 3rd. This analysis should play out if price can maintain above 36903.95, which is the 50% line of the triangle.
Correction may not be over yet; measured move incoming?Just an idea. Not saying it's going down like this, but looks a lot like Dec 2018, twin peaks, second rally slightly lower high; see what we get Friday.
Clearly need to be cautious going long at these high prices, 4238 may well be the ATH. pure guesswork now IMO. Not advice; trade with care, GLTA!
SFP 55% Move in the making SFP has been accumilating and is soon closing in on a break out of
the apex for a 50% measured move .
I have done a FIb Ext Pull to give us some potential targets to the upside and down
although my bias at the present time is bullish .
Just to note that
BTC can destroy these setups with ALT coins very easily when volatile so pls have an idea
of how BTC is trading first . Sideways BTC is the best breathing space for ALTS.
My Target for this will be the 1-1 Extension as this aligns with our 55% measured move .
Please ensure you know your Invalidation and use a SL
Like and Follow me for regular setups ..Thanks for reading
Copper close to complete the measured move!Copper has a healthy stair-step trend, with mid-term consolidations after big rally's, as drawn in chart.
We are about to make the measured move which I projected in my last chart on this ETF, at this point I expect we could enter a period of consolidation.
Risk Management
I will tight my exits to the 5-day moving average once we complete the measured move. That way I can still be in it if it continues to rally, but will secure my gains which I set in my initial plan.
To see the initial plan and breakout setup, click on related ideas "Copper breaking out"
BTCUSD looking for a C wave down to fib and demand zone supportIt is looking like BTC may be starting the c wave down to finish this correction.
Retraced approximately 85% of the move from highs in a 3 wave structure.
Hit 4 hour supply zone resistance with reaction.
There are 2 fibonacci measured move long setups below, with demand zones within the fib areas.
Also trendline support and recent all time high support within same region.
Looking at 42k-44k buy area, which has a fib target at 65328.
If the c wave goes lower, a larger fib setup is below with possible buy support at 39k-37k all the way to 34k. If this area trades, then the fib target is 67537.
I sold at 53930 looking to buy back at any of these areas.