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Measuredmove

Dollar Index Overview and EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY Warning: Most of the readers may find this article unnecessary and boring. We prepared this analysis for the traders who like to have a plan and view on their trading activity. In this analysis, we want to take a look at the medium, long-term roadmap of the USD, which follows the winds of FED’s rate hikes in parallel with the recovery of economic data in the US. There are six components in the Dollar Index basket: EUR WEIGHT 0.576 JPY WEIGHT 0.136 GBP WEIGHT 0.119 CAD WEIGHT 0.091 SEK WEIGHT 0.042 CHF WEIGHT 0.036 EURO: Dovish ECB and no rate hikes earlier than the first quarter of 2019. STERLING: Brexit uncertainties and Carney who was unable to convince the market of the continued interest rate hikes despite the 25bp rate hike from the BOE. YEN: The BOJ, which reduces its growth forecasts and 2020 inflation forecasts So, three main components of the basket do not give positive signals. Technically: Weekly Chart: After the decline that started with the 2008 crisis, DXY completed base formation and started to move up. At Fibo 61.8, completed the correction and continue to rise. The Measured Move Up formation will be completed with the breakout of 103.90 and in this case, we can speak much higher levels in the dollar index. Daily Chart: The inverse SHS pattern formation is remarkable and I expect the increase in the dollar index to accelerate with the breaking of 95.50 resistance. On the 4 Hours chart, we see an ascending triangle formation, and formation will be completed by the breakout of 95.50 resistance. Conclusion: Although DXY is stuck in a triangle and it needs new catalysts to go higher, longterm or midterm, it gives the signals of higher levels after the consolidation. After the possible breakout of 95.50, we expect the index to meet 96, 96.50, 99.20 and the target of the formation 102.40 When 103.90 is broken, the scenario will completely change. Shortly; despite Trump tweets, trade wars and upcoming US elections, as it’s been said, “Dollar is still the King”
TVC:DXYLong
by chartreader_pro
3
USOIL Corrected 38.2% On Higher TFsUSOIL just saw the anticipated correction to 38.2 FIB level of its impulse leg. The previous setup leg fading trade is closed and building long positions from here seems reasonable. However, theres a possibility that it'll see another round of selling that can potentially take it down to the 61.8% FIB level around 6805. Judging from previous experience with oil, corrections like this are bought pretty quickly, so monitoring V type of price action on higher TFs can provide additional information.
TVC:USOILLong
by Zoen_Trieste
A Potential 2618 Sell PatternUSOIL rebounded from a second leg down from its top. The minor trend still remains down but a mean reversion pullback formation is taking place. Higher TFs show a great entry level for swing buyers. Being almost at the 150 day moving average and the overextended state of this market being normalised, it is probable that some demand will be attracted here. The price currently is retreating after reaching the 0.382 fib retracement of previous bear leg and potentially could reach 0.618. It is around these levels that the market will show its hand on whether it will be going for the recent highs again or continue with the down trend.
TVC:USOILShort
by Zoen_Trieste
Gold Potential Long OpportunityGold wants higher but bears are giving a good fight here. The minor trend is down and 0.236 of fib extension of the last leg down is clearly showing signs of resistance around the level of 1310. This long set up is essentially a counter trend setup which is not recommended usually but given the current circumstance, it might work out fine. Failing around this area, will ultimately lead to lower price around 1270, so tight stops are necessary.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Zoen_Trieste
USOIL Bears Are Back With VengeanceMy previous USOIL trade setup failed dramatically. Losing trades are regarded as a business expenditure once risk management is set up properly. It seems USOIL is going through the long-awaited pullback to bring this market back to normal state form being way too overextended. I anticipate bears will try to take this down to around 6750 where they will potentially take profits en masse, thus attracting trend continuation players. It seems reasonable to monitor that area for potential pullback long entries with $1.75k risk and $5k return per lot. This is a lower probability setup with exceptional R:R - worth a try.
TVC:USOILLong
by Zoen_Trieste
APPLE Looking For A PullbackApple went for the measured move after extended pullback consolidation. Achieving measured moves is usually followed by another round of pullback consolidation . Though the trend is up, short sellers can also make money as the price action shows a broad channel up. Though short selling in uptrends is a risky business, it seems reasonable to sell short around closing price with stops slightly higher than the measured move's high and look for 2R-3R targets . Probability is lower but R:R is decent - worth a try.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Zoen_Trieste
Possible SPY Move Here (Bullish Scenario)Hey Guys, things seem to be looking up a lot for the SPY, here seems to be one of the many scenarios here that could play out. The SPY seemed to have a fantastic run up here with a slight retractment (B-C) and a possible measured move up to D. Only problem is, that if D is reached, the SPY will have to be completely gassed, meaning it's best to wait for a retractment. We seem to have a band of VWAP here that could act as possible support coming up soon, the area circled is an area of marked interest. The 50% retractment seems to match up fantastically with the VWAPS, as well as the former resistance line from the early January Drop. If the SPY retracts to there, we could see a fantastic buying opportunity with an even better stop loss position, and this would be one of my preferred scenarios. With that being said though, the most important thing to remember is that preference is just that, a preference! It's not a guarantee and no matter how hard I want or believe, it in no way means this outcome will happen, just one of many high probability outcomes. Always antacipate before you particpate! The market can move in any direction it pleases, just try to listen to it! In other news, let's take a lot at the shorter 30 Minute Chart: As you can see, the really thick purple line is the 5-Day MA, and it's sloping up beautifully, ichimoku is looking great. Longer time-frame: 200 is still rising, we're finally above the 50 Day MA, and 20 DMA is about to finally cross 50 DMA, so things are looking good (for now). Probably the most important thing I'm about to say this entire post: Do not, and I mean Do not in any way, shape, or form, CHASE!!! We're getting so overbought right now and the SPY, even though it's not showing it right this second, is getting weak! Chasing prices makes your stop losses ridiculously large, so just wait for a retractment here and let's see if we can get in at a better price! That's all guys, any questions, leave them down in the comments below. I know I haven't posted in a while, just been busy. Let me know what you think.
AMEX:SPYLong
by croganm
7
BTCUSD AB=CD 1:1 MOVE COMPLETED - OR NOTpowered through .382 and not able to get a meaningful bounce. acceleration in both price and spread currently looks like BTC USD wants to go down further before a retrace. Extension of the 1-1 ABCD to 1.618 would bring it down to .618 area. Price action here may give a clue as to $4K and below or back up towards 10K. If the higher low gets busted then probability is that downside target would be a lot lower the $4K area. If we get to 6400 in a few days rather than a few weeks that would also point to a deeper decline
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by traintrack
What's next for BTC?After days of le miserables sideways, BTC has been moving in a very tight range and looks primed for a big move one way or the other. It's important to realize that price has finally settled in an area with some actual history and support, making any bearish continuation likely to be much slower and grindier than the initial fall from 20 to 6k. Technicals remain bearish across the board and such a grinding bearish continuation is what looks most likely in my opinion. If you've been following my 2014 fractal idea, you'll know that I'm still quite bearish medium/longer term. That said, I will continue to play the bigger 4hr bounces as I have all the way down from 20k and the above chart shows the levels I'm currently looking at to buy (both bitcoin and some altcoins when btc gets there). Happy trading my dudes/dudettes!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by paretotech