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Medianline

Coffee KC - Why I see $390 and $470 as possibleThe Medianlines project the most probable path of price. It's not a fortunetelling tool. It's a technical tool which is based on serious statistical research. So, what I do when I use it is, using statistical proven evidence on a graphical basis, supported by a definite trading framework. Why do I pound on these information? Because it's important to understand what Medianlines aka Pitchforks are based off, and what they are good for in trading. No "Magic", just a tool that helps a trader/TA in it's daily Job. ANALYSIS OF COFFEE The up-sloping white Fork shows us the most probable path of price. It's up. Price blew through the Center-Line, found support, and advanced even more to the upside from there. Then we have the slanted yellow dashed lines. What are they? Many say this is a action/reaction thingy. Others say, it's a timing tool. I say, it's both. The way I use it, it takes in the angle from the last real high, and the low of the pullback from it. Then I go back to the last low before the new high. This creates an Angle, and a width. Combined it gives us not only a potential timing, but with the dynamic of price movement also potential resistance/support. So, we can see where we got such signals - where the orange circles are. The second one intersects very nicely with the Center-Line of the white Fork. I observe this "incident" often when I use them. Back to Coffee...BRB §8-) We see the time/price line intersecting with the 1/4 line of the Fork. I expect a reaction there - even a pullback back to the Center-Line is possible from there. But if price also blows through this level, then I know that the next Target will be the Upper-Medianline-Parallel. So, there we have it. I hope you can take away some knowledge from this post and thanks for all the boosting and following folks.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
Crude Oil Is SandwichedPrice is currently between the white centerline and the long-term support/resistance level. Since the price is near the centerline, we're seeing a kind of pullback to it. According to the Medianline framework, this is expected after trading below it. The downside target would be the orange CL, as that aligns with the organic target. However, between the current price and the CL target, the long-term support level is quietly sitting there—possibly waiting to trap shorts. What should a trader do now? a) We could stay on the sidelines, observe, and learn. b) We could go short, reasoning that the price is trading below the white CL and has made a textbook pullback to it. My stop would be placed above the orange bar that broke through the white CL. A long position is not an option for me, as we are still below the white CL. By the way: Look to the left and notice how the current situation mirrors past price action: 1. Break below the CL 2. Retest the CL 3. Move downward
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
DAX - Bullseye! Next Act: The Decline?Whenever the markets are booming, whenever a gardener starts giving stock recommendations, it’s time to brace yourself… The German Dax has reached it's Centerline. It's back in Balance - Or has reached it's extreme, depending on how you look at it. Whenever this happens, we the Market a) turns and trades in the opposite direction towards the next LIne. In this case the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. or b) trades through it, most of the time comes back to it, and continues in the origianl direction, which in this case would be up. To me, this is the time to watch the DAX more closely. If you are a follower, you now that I have a Bias - which is not always helpful in my trading. But yes, I tend to lean to the short side. Specially in these over hyped, over invested times. So I stalk a short, but in the same time be open for a long after a confirmation on the daily time-frame. Let's see, let's be patient and don't listen to your gardener... 🌱👨‍🌾 🌿👩‍🌾
XETR:DAXShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
Carvana's Fundamentals And Chart Screeming For A ShortFrom a very well known Short-Seller in the markets I read a concerning letter this morning: "Carvana Trades At An 845% Higher Sales Multiple Than Online Car Peers Like CarMax and AutoNation, And A 754% Premium On A Forward Earnings Basis." ...ummmhh... §8-() The Chart does look very scary too. This exponential move can't sustain very long. As we see, the first bounce already alerts me to prepare for a big short. If this plays out as projected, we see a heavy dump in the coming weeks and months.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
MSTR - Back to a new short levelAfter hitting Profit Target 1 (PTG1), it’s time to make a decision about the remaining position. The fact is, MSTR tested the 1/4 level for the second time and found solid support there. Now we’ve moved higher, back to the centerline. For me, it’s clear: if we get an Open and Close — a full bar — above the CL, I’ll close the rest of my short position. I still think MSTR is heavily manipulated. Besides the fact that this Bitcoin catalyst isn’t following BTC’s moves the way it should, it’s cheating investors for profits. That said — if there’s weakness, I’ll continue building the position. If I had no position, this is the place where I would open it on a Short trigger. If there’s strength, I’ll close it.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
3
ADBE - Pullback From The BalanceNo, I don’t like Adobe. But it doesn’t matter at all which company I like or don’t like. My only goal is to make money in the markets. Let’s take a look at what we have on the chart: Adobe has reached the centerline. The market is in balance and has reached Pivot 3. According to Andrew's Framework, P5 is considered a reversal point, whereas P3 is expected to see a relatively smaller pullback before P5 ultimately unfolds. Nevertheless, a reversal is likely at the centerline. Additionally, we are in a support/accumulation zone after the market has dropped over 40% from its 2022 high. I'm stalking a long entry and put my money to work. Long ADBE <--- ME §8-)
NASDAQ:ADBELong
by Tr8dingN3rd
RUT - Russel is in a similar "Dump" patternIn 2021 we saw the Russel creating this Dump Pattern: 1. Sideways 2. Break the high 3. Dump Watch how it looks now. To me it's very, very similar. Any other confirming signals? Yes! Price reached the white Center-Line and started to go south. Here's my game plan: If the weekly TB is broken on a close, and an Open is below the TB afterwards, I'm looking for a short entry. PTG1 is at the red Center-Line and a runner with a definite PTG2 at the green support line. My weapons will be the Options, not the Futures. It gives me much more leeway and freedom of flexibility.
TVC:RUTShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
MSTR keeps digging its own grave.Well, since my last post about MSTR, the trolls have been having a field day. What a blast! §8-) I stand by my previous post about MSTR because, honestly, I see no future in this SCAM. Especially now that Bitcoin is teetering on the edge of a deep pullback (see my last post about Bitcoin for more). So, what do we have here? MSTR broke through the centerline and tried to claw its way back up. Then came the decisive breakdown. An open and close below the centerline paved the way for a trip south. Thanks to more hype and yadda-yadda reports, we saw a pullback up to the centerline — which, by the way, was perfectly in line with the trading framework of forks. But after that failed pullback, the price went the other way, and MSTR has been digging its way further south. For those who took profits at the 1/4 line, you can now look forward to PTG2 with confidence. Or, if you’re convinced that MSTR is headed for a reckoning with regulators in the medium term (although that seems doubtful since they all seem to be napping...), you might consider doubling down on your short position. Wishing everyone a profitable and exciting new trading week!
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
Crude Oil breaks and follows projectionAfter the long consolidation time, CL finally broke the Trend-Barrier (TB) and is now on the move to the upside. It's not stupid to aim for the 1/4 line as PTG1. But for sure I would only close a portion of the position, since the upside potential is far higher. And if you don't know how much to bank, just go with 50% of your investment. If it's going higher, you're still participating from the move. If it goes sour, you have already banked 50%. Just create a plan and follow it.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
YELP projection long and good momoPrice is in a clear up-trend with wide pullbacks. Since July price was holding at the TB and L-MLH. The weekly momentum looks good to me. Although, a little concern could be the rejection at the 1/4 line. But this happened also in the past, and then, after a new attack, price took off. So, this definitely needs patience to play out. I maybe start with a little "feeler" position today. Above the 1/4 I would add more. Above the CL even more.
NYSE:YELPLong
by Tr8dingN3rd