MSTR Daily ShortHere's a daily view of MSTR.
I expect a classical Trend-Barrier Reversal.
Let's see how this plays out.
Happy Christmas all §8-)
Medianline
SI - Silver Looks GoldenHow does this look?
Yep, I’m stalking a Long, just like in Gold (check out my latest Gold post).
With the price sitting at the Center-Line, it might drop a bit further to the Shift-Line. Or, it could start climbing today.
For me, this is a "building a position" scenario.
Buy… wait… buy more when the price confirms my projection. Or bail out if it doesn’t.
Trading is so simple...
...but SO HARD §8-)
Happy digging!
S&P 500 Comes Back From Extreme "Extreme"In the S&P 500, we observe a very similar scenario to the Nasdaq (see link to the NQ chart).
It’s worth noting that we’ve seen this situation a few times before: the price traded outside the orange fork, moved back into the fork, but then left behind a "Hagopian" and shot back above it.
This is irrational market behavior caused by artificial buying pressure (Gamma Squeeze).
Now, we see the market bouncing off the 1/4 line between the warning line and the U-MLH of the white fork. And yet again, we’re trading within the orange fork.
What now?
Back up again or is it really heading down this time?
Read my lips: "I - Don’t - Know." §8-)
Buuuut, the projection and the extent of the over extension lead me to believe that this time, it’s going to crash!
Like in the NQ, my stance here is **short** for the coming weeks, and possibly even months.
NQ - Nasdaq? Read Tomorrows Wallstreet JournalIt hasn’t made any sense for a long time now how the markets keep climbing.
Manipulation? Self-perpetuation?
Honestly, who cares why. As the saying goes:
“The dwarves dug too deep. And what they unearthed was their doom.”
Or, in another version:
“The greedy vultures flew too high, and all they found was gravity.”
In the chart, we see two pitchforks:
The orange one highlights the actual overextension.
The white one represents the moderated version.
Interpreting this image is simple if you have a rulebook you can trust—and a few decades of market experience under your belt. §8-)
1. **The price turns at the orange centerline.**
This means the market is in "balance"—in the context of the overextension.
Or…
2. **Put differently:** In the context of the white pitchfork, the market overshot the upper median line parallel. This was an overextension by a factor of 2.
**What do we do with this?**
We stick to the rulebook for median lines.
The rulebook says that when the price trades above the U-MLH (upper median line parallel), fails to hold, and drops back into the fork, the market will fall to the next line.
- **Orange fork:** Down to the L-MLH (lower median line parallel).
- **White fork:** Down to the centerline.
Beyond that, I **think/guess/predict/read-tea-leaves** that the market will fall much deeper in 2025.
Please note the distinction here:
- The first statement is the projection—the interpretation of the chart.
- The latter is a speculation (no crystal ball involved).
For me, it’s clear: medium-term **short** with multiple price targets.
MSTR - Ponzi Loop Will Crash & BurnEvery now and then, I like to say that greed eats brains for breakfast. In the case of MSTR, though, it seems to have state approval to do so. How else could MSTR still be kicking?
There’s nothing to chart here. Nada. Zip. This is pure pump-and-dump economics born out of the "perfect storm" of circumstances.
Fast money? Sure, it's fast—but definitely not sustainable. It’s also a foolproof recipe for losing not just your shirt, but your pants and maybe even your dignity. Remember GME and all the other “get rich quick” lemming programs? Only a microscopic percentage actually "got rich," and an even tinier fraction stayed rich. Most of them? Just cautionary tales with a hefty dose of regret. Sorry, gamblers… err, "investors." §8-)
Instead of betting the farm on people like Michael Saylor, how about this revolutionary idea: use your own brain. Learn chart analysis, develop real skills, and slowly build up a nest egg that’ll still be around when you’re old and gray.
But hey, who am I to judge?
MSTR SHORT until 0.0001
A Google Short Term TradePrice is back to balance at the Center-Line.
From here we have a 50/50 chance that it will either shoot through it, or turn and trade in the opposite direction.
My bias is short because of the overall market situation.
(Partial) Target is the GAP-Fill at the L-MLH, which a Stop I can afford and not even think about it when it get hit.
Gold - The Next Bitcoin?The markets are beyond stretched—they’re squeezed all the way to the moon.
Today, I heard some major news: Big Money has already left the party, and others are following suit. This is HUGE. It’s also that classic moment when the barber starts sharing his “secret” stock tips.
Now, if you pair this with my recent Bitcoin post—where I outlined how a tulip-like crash could unfold—you’ll see we’re staring at the perfect recipe for a stock market KABOOM.
So, where will traders, investors, and even grandmas rush to when this unwinds? My bet: Gold. Where else? This is when the Gold Rocket ignites, replacing Bitcoin and the MAG7, creating yet another bubble—a glittering tulip 5.0. And just like before, it’ll burst when the fuel runs out.
Buckle up! 🚀
Crude Oil Eating Up Time - Plate almost emptyPrice bounced many times at the Green Support-Zone. It's the same level where the Huge Pendulums Fork Center-Line is (white-dashed).
Next, we have the Yellow Fork.
Price traded outside the L-MLH, bounced a couple times at the Support-Zone and eat up time.
But now, I think the "Plate" is almost empty.
Why? Price arrived at a decision point, a confluence point. This confluence point is where the Warning-Line and Price intersect.
To me, a Long Trade is more likely than a Short.
- world wide tensions
- so many bounces at the Support-Zone, they won't let price go down much
- price has not re-tested the L-MLH of the Yellow Pitchfork
As this is a very long term play, it's obvious that this Chart/Idea would serve to build a position, rather than using it as a simple trade.
BITCOIN's Distribution, Greed and Dutch TulipsThe **Tulip Mania** of the 1630s was the original bubble—and it was as absurd as it was dramatic. Picture this: a single tulip bulb sold for the price of a luxurious Amsterdam townhouse. Traders flipped tulips like hotcakes, fortunes were made overnight, and the humble flower became a symbol of outrageous wealth and speculation.
Then, in February 1637, the fever broke. Buyers disappeared faster than a Dutch winter thaw, and the market collapsed like a poorly built dike. Those who had mortgaged their futures for tulips were left with nothing but petals and regret. It was a dazzling rise and a catastrophic fall—a timeless lesson in the dangers of speculative greed!
🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉
Why do I write about the Tulip Crash?
These days, not many young Trader and Investors know about it. And why not learn from the past?
Happy profits all.
Apple Stretched Too FarNow that's a heck of a stretch.
Price has reached the U-MLH of the white Pitchfork and is nearing the yellow Center-Line.
What's it mean?
White U-MLH = Upper Extreme
Yellow CL = Price got back to balance, in the context of the yellow path/traction.
All this means, that the Air get's very, very thin!
Waiting for a short Signal with a target back to the white CL (Center-Line).
MDB - Scary Pullback Or Give UpNow THIS is a heck of a scary pullback!
But the sime time, for me it's a gift from the trading God to Enter/Re-Enter with a start position, if not already in.
Price got rejected at the 1/4 line, which I find it does often. But this doesn't mean that the party is over.
The Pitchfork/Medianlines give us the projection in time. And the white Pitchfork is pointing upwards, while the orange Pullback-Fork has a level of Support at the Center-Line.
All in all, it's a nice Long for me.
NVIDIA - Arguments For BearsAs in my last post "Arguments For Bulls" I do my Analysis for NVDA with eyes of a Bear.
We see the red down sloping Pendulum Swing Pitchfork. Because the A-Point is LOWER than the C Point, it's a Pullback Fork that would give us the potential downfall target at the Center-Line, before the Pendulum of price would swing to the upside again.
- the "Trend Barrier Dow" was breached
- price reacted to the tick multiple times at the U-MLH (White Rectangle) (Upper-Medianline-Parallel). This is clear resistance.
- Price just filled the GAP from 3 Days ago, so it can continue in the opposite direction (down) again.
So, that's it.
You have 3 ways to play this:
Long, Short, Flat.
Earnings of such a Market influential underlying is a pure gamble. I grab some Pop-Corn and watch the show and see, which of the cases is wrong and right. §8-)
Happy Profits all
Gold Is GO! And Everything Lined UpThe open was above the Center-Line and everything else lined up nicely.
To me this is a fair Long, with a good Stop below the last MoMo Candle.
I like to take partial profits, so I have two in this case. The first at the 1/4 line, since price has a tendency to bounce there. The second one is the Upper-Medianline-Parallel (U-MLH).
Let the fireworks begin
GBPUSD Drawing And LearningJust drawing in a relaxed state can uncover new insights. I learn this decades ago, and it is very valuable to me.
Maybe it helps you too, when you do your Zen Chart Work §8-)
EURUSD Broke The Monthly SupportThe Pendulum Fork gives us good context of where Major Upper and Lower extremes are in this picture.
The rejection at the L-MLH is really a Tell, and should not be ignored then. Multiple opportunities there to go Short.
Then a small slanted support came into play, which also gives us another chance for a short.
Potential Targets are displayed by the yellow Arrows.
Coffee reached it's BalancePrice reached the Center-Line and is back to Balance. From here it could jump above the CL or get rejected and turn south.
I would stalk a short in the Weekly/Daily time-frame.
Copper breached the supportThe L-MLH is a most likely support.
This support is breached in Copper, and a fllow through would indicate way lower prices.
What I really like in this Chart is the tiny pullback to the L-MLH, since this is totally expected after a breach of it.
Arrows mark potential targets.
META - A Clear Short CandidateThere are just too many signs to not take a Short in META.
- failed to reach the Warning-Line.
- massive resistance
- breach of the Trend-Barrier
- insanely overextended
Potential (partial) targets are the
- U-MLH
- Orange CL
- White CL
- L-MLH of both
May Santa be with us §8-)
NQ - Nasdaq struggles. The weekly reveals itSee the support NQ had?
Super nice how the the Medianlines and the A/R set reveals it. But now there is some trouble in the Kitchen.
After reaching the white Center-Line, price is struggling to punch through the orange U-MLH.
If price can't fight ti's way through this resistance, it will turn south - probably very sharp.
To me, this is a cheap Short.
If I'm wrong, so be it, it's just one of 1000s of trades. But, it's a offer I can't reject §8-)
RBOB Gasoline Broke The Weekly Base SupportFrom Sep. 2022, we see the bounces at the white Centerline. This created great support, until recently Sep. 03/24.
The Base support is broken, and price failed to move up from the white Centerline.
Well, if price is not going up, it probably goes down. Potential targets are indicated by the arrows.
NatGAS is heating upA close above the white Center-Line projects higher prices to come.
There are 2 scenarios I see:
1. pull-back to the white CL, then up.
2. cross above the petrol CL, further and fast continuation to the north.
...oh, there's 3rd scenario:
3. price is getting punched back below the white Center-Line again. If that comes true, price has another chance to go south, with a target at the 1/4 line, or even way down to the L-MLH.
Dow Jones Industrial out of GasWhen I started with trading over 3 decades ago, I was told that the DJI is often the forecaster of the bigger market direction.
This week, it looks like the DOW is out of Gas.
Struggling at the U-MLH indicates the need to find balance. Balance is at the Center-Line, so DOW(n) we go.
With end of year staring at us, it's time to reduce exposure, or at least adding to the Portfolio hedge, specially when VIX is low.
A rercurring Topping Pattern - Take (partial) Profit?What's this?
..just a Pattern.
..a recurring pattern.
..a very similar, recurring pattern.
So what is this post good for?
Maybe just a heads-up?
Or just that you can roast me to point out that BTC is stretched, and has a high chance of pulling back or even going South.
However, be happy, not angry §8-)
