QQQ - The Warning-Line Scenario For A ShortIt's simple a s that:
If price can't make it back into the Fork, then it's doomed to reach at least the Warning-Line.
This scenario likely happens if the current weeks bar close below the Warning line, and the open of the new Bar is also outside of the Fork.
Happy Short §8-)
Medianline
HIMS - The Full MonthyNo, no weed involved in this analysis.
As I said before, sometimes chart analysis is simple. But sometimes we need to extend it, combining all our knowledge to find the facts.
Let's see what we have here:
1. The white Fork.
...it's crazy, isn't it? ;-)
It looks like I was looking to fit it somehow.
But the truth can't be farther away. If you understand the principles behind this tool, WHAT it really measures, and what INFORMATION it really provides, then you get it, why this Fork is drawn like it is.
For the non Forkers:
a) Forks measure extremes, cut swings in upper, lower extremes and show where the center is.
b) they project the most probable path of price.
The A-Point was the old high.
The B-Point was the lowest low.
The C-Point is, where we had the last low, after the High was breached. So, in essence, it's a very stretched Pullback-Fork.
2. The slanted grey lines:
They just bring the natural Swings to light, and project them into the future. That's it.
I'm not going into the the minor drawings here, since they are self explaining. Just give yourself a little bit time, watch the Chart from a distance, and let your thoughts flow.
Any trades here?
Let's observe and trade from one extreme to the Center and beyond...
DJI - Dow Jones Industrial Target 40000sChart analysis can be simple.
We take our tools, surround them with rules and follow them.
The rules and the framework of the Medianlines are simple, but not easy to follow every time.
The Shiff-Fork catches the resistance and support very nicely. Especially at the Center-Line.
Above the Upper-Medianline-Parallel, at the extreme where the stretch became clear, price had a job to to do, to trade up to the Warning Line. But it failed twice so far.
When price fails to trade to the next line, comes back into the Fork, Chances are >90% that we go to the Center-Line. The first time, it failed (10% fail). The second time, with these market sentiment, I'm even more convinced to follow the rules.
Target at the Center-Line around 40'000ish.
RUT - Russle signals a drop to 1900ishThe white Pitchfork was guiding us to the Center-Line. As so often, price is turning at this level, just to reach the opposite side.
It's the same game every time.
Just follow the rules, apply a good risk and money management.
The down-sloping red Fork projects the current most probably path of price to the downside. And of course our profit target, which is the red Center-Line.
The signal is the break, the close below the shelf, the tiny support, marked by the petrol horizontal line.
Trade wisely, trade without attaching your emotions. It just is what it is, whatever the outcome will be. Knowing this, you can embrace inner freedom in trading.
NVDA - Do it again Sam - Insider only sold, not boughtI have posted enough about what's going on in NVDA. It's important in this Stock, to not going crazy, not matter what one thinks it "will" or "could" happen.
A great Hint by Unusual Whales is, that insiders had only sold in the last year, never bought their one Stock.
...what does that telly us?
May profits be with us §8-)
Carvana's Fundamentals And Chart Screeming For A ShortFrom a very well known Short-Seller in the markets I read a concerning letter this morning:
"Carvana Trades At An 845% Higher Sales Multiple Than Online Car Peers Like CarMax and AutoNation, And A 754% Premium On A Forward Earnings Basis."
...ummmhh... §8-()
The Chart does look very scary too.
This exponential move can't sustain very long. As we see, the first bounce already alerts me to prepare for a big short.
If this plays out as projected, we see a heavy dump in the coming weeks and months.
NVDA - Back again, now down again?The pattern seems to repeat.
Again, we had a HAGOPIAN, which sais, that price goes back more than from where it came, and this rule was right.
Up in here, I'm not that confident anymore that price will reach the Centerline. But, it's not about what I think, or how confident I'm are. I just have to follow my Strategy and act according to the Rules, the trading framework of the Medianlines.
That said, we either shoot up on earnings, or we definitely tank down. For now, there is no trade, only a Gamble. I rarely gamble, so I'll sit on the sidelines and let it happen whatever will come out on earnings.
As for a Lotto-Ticket, I would buy some Puts and just have fun to watch how they get burned, or how I get a Christmas Moment in the beginning of the new year §8-)
BTCUSD - Centerline Profit-Target in reachIt's not that far anymore.
Price is trickling down it's path.
I could imagine that near the confluence point, where the 1/4 line and the red Centerline meet, the PTG could be fulfilled.
However, a crack of the red U-MLH would generate a signal for a pullback up to the white Centerline.
Can Pain Be Managed Without Addiction?Vertex Pharmaceuticals has achieved a monumental breakthrough in pain management, securing FDA approval for Journavx, the first new class of painkiller in over 20 years. This non-opioid drug introduces a paradigm shift, targeting pain signals directly at the source without the addictive risks associated with traditional analgesics. The significance of this development cannot be overstated, as it promises a new era where acute pain can be treated effectively and safely, potentially altering the landscape of medical treatment for millions.
Journavx operates by selectively inhibiting NaV1.8, a sodium channel vital for pain signaling, thus preventing pain signals from reaching the brain. This mechanism not only offers relief but does so without the side effects that have long plagued opioid use. The implications for healthcare are profound, offering doctors and patients alike a tool that can redefine how we approach pain management in clinical settings. Vertex's success with Journavx showcases the company's commitment to pioneering treatments that address some of the most pressing needs in modern medicine.
Financially, this approval has bolstered Vertex's market position, evidenced by a significant uptick in stock performance following the announcement. With a revenue projection for 2025 set between $11.75 and $12.0 billion, Vertex is not just riding the wave of this single approval but is also expanding its therapeutic horizons. The strategic leadership transitions announced alongside this approval signal a robust plan for future innovation, challenging investors and healthcare professionals to think about the evolving landscape of drug development and patient care.
This moment invites us to ponder the future of pharmaceuticals - one where efficacy does not compromise safety, where innovation in treatment could lead to broader societal benefits by reducing dependency on addictive substances. Vertex's journey with Journavx might just be the beginning of a new chapter in medical science, urging us to envision a world where pain management is humane and humane-centered.
TLSA takes a breather, a deep oneTrend Barrier is broken.
Close below the Weekly Center-Line.
There's mostly a reaction to such events, so I expect a slight weekly pullback to the upside before a complete break to the PTG1.
PTG2 could be the continuation profit target mid term.
Rule #1: Protect You Soldiers
China A50 Index is ready for a huge moveThe China Index A50 holds huge potential for a massive trade.
The white fork projects the most likely direction the price will take. What supports this long idea is the fact that the market changed its downward behavior when it broke through the trend barrier on September 2, 2024.
The expected pullback has manifested right before our eyes, so we are now at a point that offers us a wonderful long entry.
BTCUSD - Bitcoin short after a pullback to the Center-LineJust a quick short term analysis:
Price opened and closed below the Center-Line.
This is a bad, very bad sign. My trades are to the South from now on.
I expect a pullback to the Center-Line.
A nice short opportunity, down to the red CL.
Further targets would be the white 1/4 line and the L-MLH.
RBOB Gasoline has broken the Trend-BarrierSince the TB is broken, we go a little sideways. Looks like someone is loading the Boat.
However, if we break the red resistance, chances are very good we start to move to the North.
To me this looks like a fantastic Risk/Reward.
So, if it looks like a valid Trade, and it smells and behave like one, it probably IS one I should take.
Let's stalk this for a break of Resistance.
GC - Golden Rocketship To The U-MLHWe got on the Rocket-Ship earlier and took profit.
If you're still in with a position, or if you can manage to get in with a decent Risk/Reward, you may want to aim for the U-MLH.
The Stars look good and profits are twinkling §8-)
If the 1/4 line is cracked, we will see a follow-through.
NQ - Nasdaq is set up to POP or DROP, and here's whyIt's nagging and nagging and nagging at the U-MLH, but this Cheese must be super hard.
If we they are not able to eat through it, open and close above it, then the I'm on to stalk a short.
PTG1 is the 1/4 line
PTG2 is the Center-Line
IF we open and close above the U-MLH, the target is the white Center-Line.
It's simple, clear and there's not more to babble about this opportunity.
CL - Crude Oil is approaching the Center-Line SupportAs mentioned in the previous analysis, we see that CL pushed back and comes right to where we expect it to go, down to the Center-Line.
Our job here is to observe how it reacts in here. Support at the Center-Line, or a blow through, or swinging around it?
Patience is key, and the observation time is very valuable, because we can learn from it and feed our stats.
Patience young Padavan, patience. §8-)
Gold advancing to our profit target 2So far, everything played out wonderful.
PTG 1 is in the books and now Gold is moving towards our second PTG.
However, trailing the stop below structure is never a bad Idea. The worst that can happen is, that the trade gets stopped out in profit.
Check out the whole setup at the related publications.
Coffee KC - Why I see $390 and $470 as possibleThe Medianlines project the most probable path of price. It's not a fortunetelling tool. It's a technical tool which is based on serious statistical research.
So, what I do when I use it is, using statistical proven evidence on a graphical basis, supported by a definite trading framework.
Why do I pound on these information?
Because it's important to understand what Medianlines aka Pitchforks are based off, and what they are good for in trading. No "Magic", just a tool that helps a trader/TA in it's daily Job.
ANALYSIS OF COFFEE
The up-sloping white Fork shows us the most probable path of price. It's up. Price blew through the Center-Line, found support, and advanced even more to the upside from there.
Then we have the slanted yellow dashed lines.
What are they?
Many say this is a action/reaction thingy.
Others say, it's a timing tool.
I say, it's both.
The way I use it, it takes in the angle from the last real high, and the low of the pullback from it. Then I go back to the last low before the new high. This creates an Angle, and a width. Combined it gives us not only a potential timing, but with the dynamic of price movement also potential resistance/support.
So, we can see where we got such signals - where the orange circles are. The second one intersects very nicely with the Center-Line of the white Fork. I observe this "incident" often when I use them.
Back to Coffee...BRB §8-)
We see the time/price line intersecting with the 1/4 line of the Fork. I expect a reaction there - even a pullback back to the Center-Line is possible from there.
But if price also blows through this level, then I know that the next Target will be the Upper-Medianline-Parallel.
So, there we have it.
I hope you can take away some knowledge from this post and thanks for all the boosting and following folks.